This study investigates how petroleum pump prices affect Nigeria's transportation costs asymmetrically. The momentum autoregressive (MTAR) and threshold autoregressive (TAR) models were used to analyse the monthly data from January 1995 to December 2023. Based on the findings, asymmetric cointegration was found in the MTAR consistent model. The influence of oil prices on transportation costs is signified as asymmetric in the nature of adjustment to the equilibrium position. Once oil prices fluctuate, increases in oil prices push the transportation cost upward, while decreases in oil prices have an insignificant effect on the cost of transportation. Furthermore, long-run results also reveal a positive correlation between oil prices and transportation cost, exchange rate, and GDP per capita. Based on the outcomes, the exchange rate is also a determinant of transportation cost. Once the exchange rate is depreciated, the effects will pass through to the high import costs of petroleum products. To stabilize the Nigerian transportation system, the government should consider both direct and indirect effects. Direct asymmetric effect through input cost, while the indirect effect is through the exchange rate.

This paper analyzes the influence of financial development on economic growth in Türkiye, specifically focusing on the roles of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness (TRADE), and nominal exchange rate (ER) from 2005 to 2023. In this study, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (NARDL) approach was used to identify the effects of independent variables on GDP growth, and the Toda-Yamamato causality approach was used to determine the direction of the relationship between variables. In the long run, positive shocks to financial development result in GDP growth, while negative shocks cause significantly larger declines in GDP, highlighting the Turkish economy's vulnerability to negative developments. The analysis reveals that the impact of positive FDI developments on economic growth is insignificant for Türkiye. However, in the long run, the negative effects of FDI negatively impact economic growth. The findings indicate an urgent need for policies that mitigate the risks associated with financial downturns to promote sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, the Toda–Yamamoto causality test results indicate unidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and financial development, FDI, and trade openness, but no causal relationship with exchange rates, thereby demonstrating that the NARDL findings are robust to potential endogeneity and reverse causality.

This study examines the relationship between fiscal deficit and trade deficit, known as ‘twin deficits hypotheses, in the Indian economy between 1977-2022. This study’s empirical results are derived using the Asymmetric cointegration technique (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model - NARDL) to estimate the long-run and short-run relationship. Zivot and Andrew’s (ZA) unit root test determines structural breaks in the series of the twin deficit variables. The asymmetric NARDL results for the short-run and long-run confirm that the trade deficit hypothesis can decide India’s fiscal deficit. Their relationship is healthier in the long-run.

This study aims to examine the impact of economic, social, and financial globalization on Nepal's economic growth. It draws on the concepts of the neoclassical, Heckscher-Ohlin, and dependency theories, which use a methodological approach to the relationship between economic expansion and globalization. This study is based on secondary data collected from various World Bank reports. It includes 53 years of yearly data from Nepal, spanning from 1970 to 2022. It follows the analytical research design, positivist research philosophy, and deductive reasoning. The non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model is used to explore the impact and cointegration between response and predictor variables. There is long-run asymmetric cointegration between social, economic, and financial globalization and economic growth in Nepal. The R-squared value of 0.867 (86.7%) from the short-run error correction model indicates that the variation in economic growth is explained by social, economic, and financial globalization. Similarly, the NARDL's R-squared value of 0.659 (65.9%) reveals that social, economic, and financial globalization explains the variation in growth. Globalization has a powerful but asymmetric impact on economic growth. Policymakers could strategically pursue policies that maximize growth from increased global integration while simultaneously developing robust domestic safeguards to insulate the economy from the distinct shocks of global financial instability.

This paper investigates the asymmetric relationship between public debt and economic growth by incorporating inflation and the total gross ‎savings from 1976 to 2022. The study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to examine the asymmetric ‎cointegration between the variables. An asymmetric causality test also examines the causal association between the considered variables. The ‎results indicate cointegration between the variables in the presence of asymmetries. The findings on asymmetric causality suggest that all the ‎variables, public debt, inflation, and savings, affect economic growth. Lastly, the implications of these results for Indonesia's growth policies are also explored because this will have important implications for policymakers in Indonesia, highlighting the need for sustainable ‎fiscal policies and debt management strategies to ensure long-term economic stability‎.

Asymmetric cointegration between capital flight and domestic investment: threshold autoregressive-quintile regression perspective

This study aims to investigate the short-run and long-term impact of oil prices on the market returns of the Next Eleven (N11) economies in the presence of the moderating role of economic policy uncertainty on this relationship. This study uses monthly data on oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, and equity markets index from the period January 2005 to December 2022. Both ARDL and NARDL models are employed to examine the linear and asymmetric co-integration between oil prices and N11 market returns. The results of the ARDL model indicate that there is a statistically significant and positive correlation between oil prices and the equity market of Vietnam, but only in the long term. The selected countries demonstrate a more noticeable short-term connection as a result of the significant influence of oil prices on stock market returns. The NARDL technique reveals that oil prices have an asymmetric impact on the market returns of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam, South Korea, and Mexico. In the short term, economic policy uncertainty has a moderating effect on the relationship between oil prices and the stock markets of Pakistan, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, and Egypt. This study is insightful for investors as by considering the uncertainty impact, they can restructure their portfolios and reallocate the risk accordingly. Investors should implement a flexible asset allocation strategy that adapts to fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment. Further, the practical implication of the research assists regulators in the fair price discovery through disclosure. Risk professionals should closely monitor the evolving global landscape since it will have an impact on the assets they manage.

The impact of accelerated advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) on economic development remains a topic of debate in the current era. It is thought by some that AI has the potential to stimulate economic development; however, the precise function of AI remains uncertain. In order to investigate the influence of AI on economic growth in 30 European countries between 2000 and 2021, this study employed both the symmetric (PMG-ARDL) and asymmetric (PMG-NARDL) models. The ARDL model's results suggest that AI has a stimulating effect on economic development. A 0.217% increase in long-term economic growth is associated with an increase in AI. In the NARDL model, the growth of the economy was observed to be increased by 0.026% as a result of positive shocks to the positive AI variable. Conversely, negative shocks were found to have a negative impact, with a decrease of 0.029% in economic growth. It is posited that AI may stimulate economic development by increasing efficiency, promoting economies of scale, enhancing the quality of products and services, and improving working conditions. Furthermore, the study identifies the displacement of employment, the rising costs of training and adaptation, and the expansion of economic and social inequality. To address these challenges, policymakers must facilitate the creation of alternative employment opportunities, promote the development of new AI-driven industries, and implement rehabilitation programs for workers at risk of automation. Balancing technological advancement with job preservation and high-quality employment necessitates a collaborative approach between public and private sectors.

This study investigates the impacts of the nominal exchange rate on Turkish stock prices using a structural break cointegration test with endogenously determined multiple structural breaks and an asymmetric cointegration test for the period of 2002-2021. The study differs from previous research on this relation in two respects. First, it takes into account structural breaks in relation to both regimes and trends (C/S/T). Second, it extends the asymmetric cointegration with multiple structural breaks. The findings of structural break cointegration capture the break dates in line with the Turkish economics dynamics and reveal the negative effects of the exchange rates on stocks, with their significance and magnitude differing in regimes. Similarly, NARDL results indicate that negative and positive exchange rate shocks exhibit asymmetric effects on stocks for both the whole period and regimes. The overall findings demonstrate that exchange rate variations have distinctive impacts on stock prices when considering structural break and asymmetrical dynamics. In this background, policymakers and foreign investors need to take into account these dynamics when dealing with Turkish financial markets.

The asymmetric nexus between energy transition and its drivers: New evidence from China

This study examines the relationship between inflation and financial development indicators for the Fragile Five countries between 1981 and 2021. The study analysed the relationship between symmetric and asymmetric distributed lag regression models. Inflation appears to have a negative impact on financial development in countries other than Brazil and India. The results prove that the most extended correction process was experienced in India, and the shortest was experienced in Indonesia among the Fragile Five countries. Research results emphasise that high inflation negatively affects financial development in these economies by increasing the cost of financial intermediation.

This paper’s objective is to examine the asymmetric cointegration and asymmetric effects of financial development and monetary policy on monetary transmission mechanisms in the Nigerian context using annual data spanning the period from 1986 to 2023. This study pushes the frontiers of knowledge by providing information on the nonlinear impacts of monetary policy and financial sector innovations on monetary transmission mechanisms in Nigeria to help policymakers tailor their strategies to local conditions, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary interventions in the economy. To achieve this, this paper adopted nonlinear ARDL models to understand how changes in the direction of monetary policy and developments in the financial system induce changes in the transmission of monetary policy. The findings document the existence of asymmetries in both the short and long run, revealing that the impacts of financial development and monetary policy on the different monetary policy channels are not uniform. These asymmetries indicate that the responses of various economic variables to monetary policy actions differ depending on the level of financial development. These findings underscore the complexity of the monetary transmission mechanism and the necessity for a nuanced understanding of how financial development and monetary policy interact in different contexts. Consequently, this finding is symptomatic of some characteristics of those financial markets on their way toward advanced developments. As the financial system matures, monetary policy may have a greater impact on the cost of short-term funding for banks without having any discernible effect on the rates at which businesses and households access funding. Therefore, this paper recommends focusing on the policies that will foster the financial system across the banking sector, capital market, bond market, and overall financial sector to improve the efficiency of the monetary transmission process.

This research analyzed the interest rate pass-through (IRPT) hypothesis from central banks to commercial banks in Pakistan's banking sector. Compared to the literature, this research used disaggregated data (private, public, foreign, specialized, and all banks) with monthly frequency to capture the more appropriate behavior of the data. The data is available on the State Bank of Pakistan's website. Based on the properties of the data, this research used a co-integration estimation method in the presence of the Momentum Threshold Auto Regressive (MTAR) model. This econometric model will help us to capture the symmetric vs asymmetric co-integration and rigidities in empirical models. Empirically, we found different types of IRPT across various types of banks, but the change in the policy rate is the same for all these banks, which ultimately creates the hurdles in achieving the objective of monetary policy. Therefore, we suggest that the State Bank of Pakistan must construct different policies across different types of banks to achieve the objective of the monetary policy.

The impacts of forest resources, green investment, healthcare, and education on environmental pollution: China Carbon neutrality program

This study examines the relationship between fossil energy consumption (FEC) and economic growth by applying the non-linear ARDL method in the Türkiye sample. This relationship was addressed in 3 different models to eliminate the multicollinearity between the oil, natural gas, and coal variables that make up the FEC. According to the analysis results, all models have an asymmetric cointegration between the variables. In all models, the effect of decreases in energy consumption on economic growth is more dominant than increases in the long run. According to the causality results, the neutrality hypothesis is valid for coal consumption, the feedback hypothesis is valid for natural gas consumption, and the growth hypothesis is valid for oil consumption.

Asymmetric effects of uncertainty on investment: Empirical evidence from India

The role of exchange rates is very important in the international market and the variability of exchange rates both in the case of appreciation or depreciation is directly connected with the economic performance of a country. Exchange rate variations in oil-producing countries in Africa have been too high resulting in volatilities due to domestic and foreign shocks. High volatility of exchange rate may translate into reduction of trade flows, foreign direct investment, and instability in both interest rates and inflation rates. Several studies on the relationship between economic fundamentals and exchange rates focused more on Africa or country-specific with limited focus on African oil-producing countries using asymmetric cointegration. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between some economic fundamentals and real exchange rates in oil-producing countries in Africa. The dynamics panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag and linear autoregressive distributed lag were used to investigate the relationship between economic fundamentals and real exchange rate (RER). The NARDL result shows evidence that there exists both short and long-run asymmetric relationship between economic fundamentals and RER. The study recommended that policymakers in these countries pay more attention to their macroeconomic policies to reduce the production and transaction costs of foreign direct investment (FDI).

Income inequality is an essential cause of violence, stagnant development, and political instability. This study will examine the positive and negative shocks in tourism development, and the distribution of the interaction between tourism development, economic growth, human capital, globalization, and income inequality will be discussed in Singapore, a developed and top-visited country. By adopting autoregressive distributed lag and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approaches for panel data from 1978 to 2022, the results indicate an asymmetric cointegration among variables, and positive and negative changes in tourism development lead to decreased income inequality. More specifically, the asymmetric effect of tourism is found both in the short- and long-term, and positive shock has a greater impact than negative shock. At the same time, the findings also reveal that economic growth and globalization enhance, while human capital negatively affects income inequality in Singapore. These findings strengthen the belief of Singapore policy-makers and recommend several significant lessons for developing countries to promote tourism, sustainable development, and reduce income inequality.

Abstract This paper investigates the sensitivities of Singapore’s sectoral industrial production to local and global business cycle variations using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in the nonlinear and asymmetric cointegration framework. By employing monthly time series data from Jan 1983 to Dec 2022 the study corroborates the commonly held view that durable industries are pro-cyclic to thelocal business cycle. However, the nature of cyclic sensitivity is different if viewed from a global perspective. Industries including pharmaceutical, computer, and motor vehicles industries flourish in both the local and global business cycle booms. Almost all industries having long-run linkages with global industrial production are also affected by global production growth in the short run. However, consistent with earlier studies for Southeast Asian countries, very few industries exhibit short-run asymmetries in their relationship with local and global business cycles. We found that incorporating long-run information also improves the forecasting ability of sectoral industrial production growth in Singapore.

ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to ascertain the asymmetric impact of energy consumption on economic growth in Somalia for the period 1985–2017. A novelty econometric method of the Nonlinear Autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique and the Granger causality test are employed to confirm the aim of the study. The empirical findings revealed the presence of asymmetric co-integration between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run. Both positive and negative shocks in energy consumption enhance economic growth in Somalia in the long run, even though, the positive shock has a stronger significant effect on economic growth in the long run. In contrast, a negative shock in energy consumption causes economic growth, thus, confirming the energy-led growth hypothesis. Hence, this calls for the policymakers to devise investment policies that are aimed at the improvement of foreign and local investments in energy sector.