Arms Race Research Articles (Page 1)

This study examines the interdependence of defense expenditure among Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore through the lens of fiscal signaling theory. Previous research focuses mainly on NATO and Middle Eastern arms races. However, empirical evidence for Southeast Asian fiscal signaling remains limited, often restricted to single-country studies. This study analyzes annual SIPRI data from 2000–2024, applying Pearson correlation and Granger causality tests to identify synchronous and temporal relationships in defense spending (% of GDP). Results reveal weak correlations between Indonesia–Malaysia (r = 0.239) and Indonesia–Singapore (r = –0.027), with no significant Granger causality effects at one-year or two-year lags (p > 0.05). Defense budgets remain autonomous across these countries, reflecting domestic priorities and fiscal constraints rather than regional competition. The study contributes to fiscal signaling literature by demonstrating that Southeast Asia's defense budgeting emphasizes fiscal autonomy over arms race dynamics, supporting Musgrave's stabilization function and Fiscal Sustainability Theory. The absence of fiscal signaling suggests that regional stability is preserved through independent, discipline-oriented defense budgeting within ASEAN.

Host-parasite relationships are often shaped by coevolutionary arms races. While abiotic influences on these dynamics are well documented, a combined analysis of abiotic and biotic factors is essential for understanding coevolution, particularly under climate change. In this study, we analysed the interactions of the obligate social parasite Temnothorax americanus, a dulotic ant, and its primary host, the ant Temnothorax longispinosus, focusing on behavioural and cuticular hydrocarbon (CHCs) traits that govern parasite invasion and host defence. We studied the link between these traits and local climate as well as parasite prevalence. Our results revealed that behavioural interactions were more strongly associated with climate than parasite prevalence. Hosts from warmer, drier regions exhibited reduced aggression during parasite encounters, opting to pick up the brood and flee, while parasites from these regions exhibited greater aggression and activity. CHCs mediating enemy recognition in these ants were linked to local climate and parasite prevalence in both species. As all colonies were maintained under standardised conditions for a year, we attribute the observed phenotypic traits to evolutionary adaptation rather than phenotypic plasticity. Our findings suggest that both abiotic and biotic factors play critical roles in shaping co-evolving traits, sometimes leading to unexpected patterns that would potentially be overlooked when considering only a single factor. These insights provide a framework for understanding how climate influences coevolution of interacting species.

Protectionism in foreign trade includes government policies designed to restrict imports and support local industries. These policies consist of the implementation of tools such as tariffs, quotas, subsidies, and trade restrictions that aim to protect local economies from global competition. While protectionist measures in foreign trade support local industries and lead to increased domestic employment and reduced unemployment, they also carry the risks of causing several problems such as economic inefficiencies, trade wars, and higher costs for consumers. The two main objectives of this study are to demonstrate through historical analysis that protectionism in foreign trade is not a situation specific to the Trump administration. The second is to examine the possible outcomes of Trump’s protectionist policies in foreign trade that he will implement during the 2025-2029 period. As a result of the study, it is demonstrated through a historical analysis that protectionism is not a situation specific to the Trump administration. The possible economic outcomes of Trump’s protectionist policies in foreign trade that he will implement during the 2025-2029 period are; While it is expected to cause a weakening of economic growth, an increase in inflation and unemployment on a global scale, its geopolitical and social consequences are expected to be the rise of tensions on a global scale, an increase in regional polarization, the rise of nationalism and anti-globalization sentiment, an arms race and paving the way for war..

Bacteriophages and bacteria engage in a continuous evolutionary arms race, driving the development of intricate bacterial defense systems such as CRISPR-Cas, BREX (Bacteriophage Exclusion), Gabija, and Shedu. Here, we characterize a two-component KELShedu system in Escherichia coli that confers resistance to phages via abortive infection. The KELShedu system comprises KELA, a double-stranded DNA–binding protein, and KELB, a metal ion-dependent nuclease harboring the DUF4263 domain. In addition, we find that physiological levels of nucleotide triphosphates (NTPs) inhibit the DNA cleavage activity of the KELShedu system, suggesting that KELShedu’s activation depends on reduced intracellular NTP levels during phage invasion. Our research demonstrates that the KELShedu system responds to nucleotide depletion triggered by phage replication, leading to nonspecific degradation of cellular DNA and ultimately inducing abortive infection. These insights into the KELShedu system expand the repertoire of bacterial antiphage mechanisms and lay the groundwork for applications in microbial engineering and therapeutic development.

ABSTRACT This forum highlights the disruptive implications of AI for the geopolitical landscape by examining its integration into command-and-control systems, military doctrines, and global security discourses. These transformations are embedded in core debates on spatial power projection, supply chain control, technological sovereignty, shifting international alliances, and the changing geography of innovation hubs. AI-assisted arms races are thus understood not only as strategic phenomena between states, but also as drivers of spatial reconfiguration in the global security order. Challenging the reductive metaphor of a singular ‘AI arms race’, the forum conceptualises contemporary rivalries as overlapping, AI-assisted competitions that amplify key strategic domains such as nuclear deterrence, cyber warfare, and air warfare.

The overall complexity of organisms increases during the course of evolution, starting with the first self-replicating molecules, followed by prokaryotes and eukaryotes, first unicellular and later multicellular. We present an opinion that non-cellular genetic entities such as transposable elements, plasmids, viruses and viroids, although originally parasitic, selfish and sometimes destructive elements, may contribute to the increase of complexity. We propose that non-cellular genetic elements impose (parasitic) pressure on the cooperative genes of cellular organisms, driving the sequence of evolutionary transitions from the first cooperative replicators to multicellular life forms, and have suggested that they belong to a separate kingdom of life, the Acytota. The complexity increase is probably caused by the high proliferation capacity of these non-cellular genetic elements, their frequent horizontal gene transfer, participation in parasite-host arms races, formation of epigenetic silencing mechanisms as well as the ability to build genetic regulatory networks. Simultaneously, these elements contribute to complexity by supplying genetic material via domestication, genome rearrangements, and dispersal of regulatory elements. Complexity has not only increased during evolution, there are also examples of simplification, both during chemical evolution (in prebiotic chemistry) and the evolution of parasites. Therefore, we describe the ups and downs of organism complexity and discuss the reasons for the general dominant upward trend, namely coevolution and the interaction of existing modules.

This article considers the impact of advances in the biological sciences and related fields on the international system by considering the prospects that such developments will induce countries to adopt biological weapons and spark a biological weapons arms race. As such, it considers the relative importance of technological factors compared with other considerations (such as military utility and bureaucratic factors) in determining weapons system adoption.

ABSTRACTThis paper explores the emergence of new forms of private supplementary classes in Singapore. Specifically, it examines the consolidation of an ‘enrichment industry’ offering classes in sports, music, performing arts, and extracurricular academic activities. The paper argues that even if such classes do not shadow the school curriculum or prepare students for national examinations, they can still be understood as a form of shadow education. More precisely, they reflect a policy shift from exclusively academic to more holistic criteria of educational advancement. They interact directly with private tutoring as competing strategies in the educational arms race, and in this sense, extend the competitive logic of shadow education into holistic education itself. As many other (especially Asian) countries with substantial shadow education sectors are undertaking similar reforms, the dynamics between education reform and shadow education uncovered here may have relevance for other systems as well.

The Software as a Service (SaaS) industry, for two decades a paragon of predictable growth and scalability, has arrived at a critical inflection point. The model that propelled the cloud revolution—built on centralized computing, subscription economics, and standardized user interfaces—has reached a plateau of maturity, yet also one of vulnerability. Beneath the placid surface of quarterly revenue growth, tectonic pressures have been accumulating: feature bloat rendering products cumbersome; the inexorable rise of customer acquisition costs turning marketing into an arms race; and, most critically, a fundamental misalignment between the uniform nature of the product and the unique exigencies of each customer. It is at this juncture of incipient crisis that Artificial Intelligence enters not merely as another technological increment, but as a foundational force poised to catalyze a paradigm shift comparable in scale to the transition from on-premise software to the cloud itself. We are witnessing not an evolution, but a revolution: a departure from SaaS as we have known it toward a new era of intelligent, proactive, and profoundly personalized cloud platforms. This monograph was born from the observation that the extant discourse on AI in SaaS is perilously fragmented. On one hand, one finds deeply technical treatises, inaccessible to strategists and business leaders. On the other, a deluge of superficial commentary reduces the profound complexities of this transformation to a mere recitation of buzzwords. There has been a palpable need for a unified, analytical work that connects the technological underpinnings to their strategic consequences—a bridge between the code and the market, the architecture and the business model. The objective of this book is to fill that void. It is not a technical manual for data scientists, nor is it a collection of futuristic prognostications for the C-suite. It is, rather, an academic inquiry, an attempt to analyze and synthesize the *mechanisms* of the transformation unfolding before us. The central thesis of this work is that Artificial Intelligence is not a set of features to be appended to an existing product; it is a new, fundamental layer that permeates the entire SaaS stack, altering everything from how code is written and user experiences are designed to the methods of pricing, operational efficiency, and the very nature of competition. This book is intended for the four key constituencies at the vanguard of this transformation: For SaaS founders and product leaders, it is designed to be a strategic map, helping not only to navigate the new competitive pressures but also to identify unique opportunities for creating next-generation products. For investors, it offers an analytical framework for re-evaluating traditional metrics and identifying the true leaders of the new era who can build durable moats in a world where old advantages are rapidly eroding. For enterprise executives and CIOs, it serves as a decision-making guide, explaining how to distinguish genuine AI innovation from marketing hype and how to strategically adopt intelligent SaaS solutions to achieve a real competitive advantage. For researchers and students of software engineering and technology management, it systematizes the current state of the industry and identifies promising frontiers for future scholarly investigation. The journey undertaken within these pages traverses the entire SaaS value chain—from rethinking the fundamentals of AI in the context of cloud architectures to analyzing new ethical and regulatory imperatives. We will begin with foundational concepts, proceed to the transformation of product development and customer experience, explore new business models and operational paradigms, and finally, assess the future of the competitive landscape.

The virus-host arms race is a major component of the evolutionary process in all organisms that drove the evolution of a broad variety of immune mechanisms. In the last few years, over 200 distinct antivirus defense systems have been discovered in prokaryotes. There are two major modes of immunity acquisition: innate immune systems spread through microbial populations via HGT, whereas adaptive-type immune systems acquire immunity via direct interaction with the virus. We developed a mathematical model to explore the short-term evolution of prokaryotic immunity and showed that in stable environments with predictable viral repertoires, adaptive-type immunity is the optimal defense strategy, whereas in fluctuating environments with unpredictable virus composition, HGT dominates the immune landscape.

Viral entry is a critical step in the infection process. Klebsiella spp. and other clinically relevant bacteria often express complex polysaccharide capsules that act as a barrier to phage entry. In turn, most lytic phages targeting Klebsiella encode depolymerases for capsule removal. This virus-host arms race leads to extensive genetic diversity in both capsules and depolymerases, complicating our ability to understand their interaction. This study exploits the genetic information encoded in Klebsiella prophages to model the interplay between the bacteria, the prophages, and their depolymerases, using a directed acyclic graph and a sequence clustering-based method. Both approaches show significant predictive ability for prophage capsular tropism and, importantly, are transferrable to lytic phages. In addition to creating a comprehensive database linking depolymerase sequences to their specific targets, this study demonstrates the predictability of phage-host interactions at the subspecies level, providing insights for improving the therapeutic and industrial applicability of phages.

The Role of Open Source in an AI Arms Race

From Volume to Value: Curbing the Arms Race in Medical Student Research.

The host-parasite arms race involves complex molecular crosstalk mediated by protein-protein interactions (PPIs). Bioinformatic analyses can be used to predict both host-parasite PPIs and potential drug targets in parasite genomes, but high-quality genomic data remain scarce for parasitic monogenean flatworms. Herein, an experimental lineage of Gyrodactylus kobayashii (Monopisthocotylea: Gyrodactylidae) is set up on goldfish hosts and used to conduct phased genome assembly using long-range PacBio HiFi and Hi-C technologies. In silico analyses of genomes of three Gyrodactylus species identified innexins as the most promising novel drug candidate genes. Drug screening and experimental verification singled out Imatinib as the most promising drug targeting innexins, with a high efficiency against G. kobayashii (100% mortality at 25µM within 6h in vitro) and low toxicity to the host. Prediction of PPIs in three Gyrodactylus-host pairs revealed proteins associated with cAMP-dependent signaling as key candidates, including the host's PRKACB and the parasite's PRKAR2A, RAP1A, ULK2, and Catenin Beta-2. Two interacting G proteins are also identified: GNAO1 and GNB5. As the first high-quality phased chromosome-level genomic assembly for "monogeneans" and the first identification of PPIs in a fish-parasite system, this study significantly advances the understanding of host-parasite interactions at the genomic level.

BackgroundPlant-pathogen interactions are characterized by evolutionary arms races. At the molecular level, fungal effectors can target important plant functions, while plants evolve to improve effector recognition. Rapid evolution in genes encoding effectors can be facilitated by transposable elements (TEs). In Magnaporthe oryzae, the causal agent of blast disease in several cereals and grasses, TEs play important roles in chromosomal evolution as well as the gain or loss of effector genes in host specialized lineages. However, a global understanding of TE dynamics driving effector evolution at population scale and across lineages is lacking.ResultsHere, we focus on 16 AVR effector loci assessed across a global sampling of 11 reference genomes and 447 newly generated draft genome assemblies from publicly available short-read sequencing data across all major M. oryzae lineages and outgroups. We classified each effector based on evidence for duplication, deletion and translocation processes among lineages. Next, we determined AVR gain and loss dynamics across lineages allowing for a broad categorization of effector dynamics. Each AVR was integrated in a distinct genomic niche determined by the TE activity profile contributing to the diversification at the locus. We quantified TE contributions to effector niches and found that TE identity helped diversify AVR loci. We used the large genomic dataset to recapitulate the evolution of the rice blast AVR1-CO39 locus.ConclusionsTaken together, our work demonstrates how TE dynamics are an integral component of M. oryzae effector evolution, likely facilitating escape from host recognition. In-depth tracking of effector loci is a valuable tool to predict the durability of host resistance.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12915-025-02385-7.

A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a critical juncture for decision makers. This article lays out the contours of an overlooked but intensifying technological arms race for nuclear (in)visibility, driven by the interplay between proliferation-enabling technologies (PETs) and detection-enhancing technologies (DETs). We argue that the strategic pattern of proliferation will be increasingly shaped by the innovation pace in these domains. Artificial intelligence (AI) introduces unprecedented complexity to this equation, as its rapid scaling and knowledge substitution capabilities accelerate PET development and challenge traditional monitoring and verification methods. To analyze this dynamic, we develop a formal model centered on a Relative Advantage Index (RAI), quantifying the shifting balance between PETs and DETs. Our model explores how asymmetric technological advancement, particularly logistic AI-driven PET growth versus stepwise DET improvements, expands the band of uncertainty surrounding proliferation detectability. Through replicable scenario-based simulations, we evaluate the impact of varying PET growth rates and DET investment strategies on cumulative nuclear breakout risk. We identify a strategic fork ahead, where detection may no longer suffice without broader PET governance. Governments and international organizations should accordingly invest in policies and tools agile enough to keep pace with tomorrow'stechnology.

ABSTRACT The relationship between military spending and economic growth is debated, especially around how defense R&D creates technologies that benefit civilians. New innovations in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced materials have shifted this discussion beyond simple trade-offs. We model how perceived threats emerge from relative military capabilities and how defense R&D generates knowledge externalities enhancing civilian productivity. Our framework yields several notable insights: stronger dual-use spillovers increase equilibrium growth rates while potentially raising military expenditures; international knowledge diffusion generates asymmetric effects on defense spending incentives across technologically advanced and developing countries; and non-cooperative military spending decisions typically result in inefficient arms races. The equilibrium characterized by our model exhibits excessive military spending relative to the social optimum due to the negative security externality, highlighting potential welfare benefits from international coordination mechanisms. By incorporating realistic features including imperfect competition, non-constant returns, and heterogeneous spillovers, we provide a comprehensive theoretical foundation for understanding when military expenditures complement or constrain economic development. Our results contribute to debates on defense industrial policy, technology transfer regulations, and international security cooperation in an era of intensifying technological competition.

This study examined the complex issues surrounding civilian disarmament in South Sudan, with a focus on reducing small arms proliferation and promoting sustainable peace and development. The study's methodology was grounded in several theoretical frameworks, including the Security Dilemma Theory and Social Identity Theory. The Security Dilemma Theory posited that the accumulation of military capabilities, including small arms, by one group could create a sense of insecurity among other groups, leading to an arms race and increased tensions. The Social Identity Theory posited that individuals derived a sense of identity and belonging from their membership in social groups, which could lead to in-group favouritism and out-group bias. The research employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative phases to gather data from 350 community members and conduct in-depth case studies of three communities. The study found that despite large-scale disarmament efforts, success rates remained low, with an estimated 1.9 million small arms in circulation, contributing to increased violence and insecurity, particularly in rural areas. The research highlighted the critical role of traditional leaders and community structures in promoting peace and development in South Sudan. Community-led disarmament initiatives, supported by the international community, were effective in reducing small arms proliferation and promoting security. However, the study noted that disarmament efforts had to be tailored to address the specific security concerns and needs of different ethnic groups, and that traditional leaders and community structures had to be involved in the disarmament process. The intersection of security and ethnicity was a critical factor in understanding the dynamics of small arms proliferation in South Sudan. The study found that ethnicity played a significant role in shaping security perceptions and behaviours, with different ethnic groups having different

In the host-pathogen arms race, herpesviruses and poxviruses encode proteins that sabotage the transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP), thereby suppressing MHC-I antigen presentation and enabling lifelong infection. Of the five known viral TAP inhibitors, only the herpes simplex virus (HSV) protein ICP47 has been structurally resolved. We now report cryoelectron microscopy structures of TAP in complex with the remaining four: BNLF2a (Epstein-Barr virus), hUS6 (human cytomegalovirus), bUL49.5 (bovine herpesvirus 1), and CPXV012 (cowpox virus), assembling a structural atlas of viral TAP evasion. Despite employing divergent sequences, folds, and conformational targets, these viral inhibitors converge on a common strategy: they stall TAP from the alternating access cycle, precluding peptide entry into the ER and shielding infected cells from cytotoxic T cell surveillance. These findings reveal striking functional convergence and provide a structural framework for rational antiviral design.

Despite Cutibacterium acnes being the most abundant and prevalent bacteria on human skin, only a single type of phage has been identified that infects this host. Here, we leverage this one-to-one system to systematically characterize how the phage-bacteria arms race shapes C. acnes evolution and community composition on individual people. Our analysis reveals a surprising lack of phage-mediated selection despite global prevalence of C. acnes phages. Analysis of anti-phage defense systems across 3,205 bacterial genomes revealed a limited, phylogenetically restricted defense repertoire under weak selective pressure to diversify or be maintained. Functional assays did not reveal alternative phage resistance mechanisms or fitness costs associated with defense gene carriage that could explain this limited immune arsenal. This lack of pressure to maintain phage resistance could not be explained by lack of phage colonization, as examination of 471 global human facial skin metagenomes demonstrated that even in samples with high virus-to-microbe ratio, phage-sensitive clades dominate on-person populations. Together, these findings indicate that phage pressure, while present, does not play a critical role in determining strain fitness and success within C. acnes populations on human skin. We propose that this observed weak phage-mediated selective pressure can be explained by the anatomy of skin: C. acnes growth is thought to occur at the bottom of pores, where exposure to phage may be limited by physical barriers. Together, this portrait of a static arms race provides a strong contrast with other microbial species in different ecosystems and expands understanding of phage-bacteria interactions in the human microbiome.