Potential Risk Areas Research Articles

Rockburst Inducement Mechanism and Its Prediction Based on Microseismic Monitoring

The rockburst disaster in the hard rock caused by excavation and unloading of deep underground caverns threatens the safety of engineering construction. In recent years, the microseismic monitoring technology, which can dynamically monitor the whole process of progressive failure of rock mass in real time, has been widely used in rockburst monitoring and early warning of underground engineering. In view of the slight rockburst in local surrounding rock during the excavation of underground powerhouse of Huanggou Pumped Storage Power Station, a rockburst microseismic monitoring system is constructed. And through the analysis of the temporal and spatial activity of microseisms during the monitoring period, the potential risk areas of rockbursts are identified and delineated. The monitoring results show that the microseismic system can effectively capture the blasting and microseismic signals during construction. The microseismic activity is closely related to the intensity of field blasting disturbance. The potential risk areas of rockburst are the upstream side arch shoulder and the intersection between lower drainage corridor and workshop installation room. The research results can provide technical support for later excavation and support of underground powerhouse caverns of Huanggou Hydropower Station.

Assessment of the potential risk of leaching pesticides in agricultural soils: study case Tibasosa, Boyacá, Colombia

Agricultural soils need monitoring systems to address pesticide risks for humans and the environment. The purpose of this paper was to obtain leaching risk maps of the pesticides imidacloprid, lambda-cyhalothrin, and chlorpyrifos in agricultural soil under an onion (Allium cepa L.) crop in Tibasosa, Boyacá, Colombia. This was obtained by studying the soil types in the area, analyzing the behavior of pollutants in the soil profile, using a delay factor and an attenuation factor to finally include GIS allowing visualization of the areas of greater potential risk in the study area.

Strategic Analysis of Export Activities of Enterprises to Ensure Sustainable Development

In the article necessity and significance to study of financial risks, which are a constant factor in the activity of any enterprise, are substantiated. It is established that for a broader understanding of the essence of financial risk it is necessary to consider it as a cumulative risk of the enterprise. The growing impact of financial risks on the results of financial and economic activities is associated with the uncertain economic situation, the instability of financial market conditions, the rapid introduction of new financial technologies and financial instruments, expanding the scope of financial relations of the enterprise. Methods of financial risk assessment are investigated, which involve the identification of risks, determining the causes of their occurrence and potential risk areas, as well as the negative consequences of making a risky decision or possible benefits. Comparing the methods of quantitative assessment of financial risk, it was found that the level of risk may vary depending on the chosen method of assessment. A system of financial ratios has been formed to quantify the risk of enterprises of different sizes, namely for large, medium and small enterprises, which most accurately reflect the current financial situation. An assessment of the financial results of enterprises operating in the field of wholesale trade. The financial results before the taxation of activity as an indicator that characterizes the potential for profit generation of wholesale trade enterprises by size distribution are studied. The value of financial results (balance) before taxation of wholesale trade enterprises is forecasted. It is established that the growing pressure of the crisis and insecurity on the part of the state will lead to the transition from the crisis in which enterprises are today, to a state of economic bankruptcy. This situation requires the formation and use of financial resources of enterprises, based on the system and complexity of making and implementing management decisions. Quantitative and qualitative assessment of financial risks of wholesale trade enterprises belonging to groups of large, medium and small enterprises was carried out. Based on these calculations, the ranking of priorities in the management of financial stability. It is established that the first place among the blocks of financial coefficients of risk assessment of enterprises is occupied by the block of business activity, then the block of profitability indicators, the block of liquidity indicators, the final block of capital structure. For each of the defined blocks the directions of increase, or optimization that will provide financial stability of the enterprise are presented.

Mapping environmental suitability for anthrax reemergence in the Arctic

Recent studies have raised concerns about the potential reemergence of infectious diseases in Arctic regions associated with warming temperatures. Among these, particular attention has been devoted to anthrax, as a consequence of the outbreak that occurred in the Russian Yamalo-Nenets peninsula in 2016. Understanding how environmental change might influence the diffusion of this pathogen could allow informed decisions to prevent further zoonotic or epidemic episodes. To that end, the present study aims to identify and investigate the driving variables that may favor anthrax transmission within the Arctic, in order to build environmental niche maps describing the future suitability of these regions for the pathogen. To do so, we use the MaxEnt statistical learning tool informed by Arctic-specific variables, such as reindeer herd distribution and active-layer variation. Because of the relative lack of reliable georeferenced information in these regions, the resulting potential distribution maps are to be considered preliminary, but they can already provide a first assessment tool for local communities living in potential risk areas. They also indicate areas in which additional investigation is needed to improve the reliability of environmental niche modeling, hence the accuracy of risk mapping and the usefulness to Arctic communities.

Stability analysis of an abandoned deep metal mine using numerical analysis tool: A case study

In the recent years due to rapid urbanisation, the key focus has been shifted to development of rural and remote areas. Abandoned mine sites are being evaluated for land reclamation with remediation measures as part of the development program. The abandoned mines come with inherent risk like unpredictable potential future subsidence and sinkhole formations on the surface. The identification of these potential risk areas stands as a major challenge for remediation. The inaccessibility to site makes it even more difficult to study the current geo-mechanical stress conditions for stability evaluation. Despite these limitations, it is essential that abandoned mine sites could be evaluated to atleast give an indicative understanding of current scenarios with regard to safety.Using numerical analysis tool, it is possible to simulate a model similar to that of the abandoned mine, to identify the potentially stressed zones and assess the stability of the underground excavation. The finite element method is used to develop a numerical model using GTS NX software. The software aided in evaluation of stress distributions and stability of the closed mine since the mine presents a hydro geological problem. The model analysis has proved to be very helpful in observing the mechanical behaviour of materials, modelling of rock systems and understanding the deformations in the rockmass.Three case conditions of varying the input parameter of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with a minimum PGA value of 0.06g to a maximum PGA value of 0.22g was used in the model studies of Champion Reef mine (3.2km deep gold mine). The vulnerable zones of seismicity were identified to be concentrated at a depth below 1500m from the surface and the maximum peak ground accelerations observed at the surface was found to be 0.1g to 0.22g. The model developed and approach used in this study is an attempt to present the overall view of the probable stability condition for a rough risk assessment study of the deepest Champion Reef metal mine in Kolar Gold Fields.

Deformation and failure analysis of surrounding rock mass in deep buried tunnels subjected to excavation

With the rapid development of underground engineering, the construction of hydraulic tunnel is faced with complex geological conditions. Rock burst and deformation have become the bottleneck of engineering construction. The study of deformation and failure mechanisms of surrounding rock mass during the excavation of deep buried tunnel has become important for the field of underground engineering. The traffic tunnel of Shuangjiangkou hydropower station is studied to identify the failure mechanism of surrounding rock mass of deep buried tunnel. We introduced microseismic monitoring technology to delineate potential risk areas and reveal the space-time evolution of microfractures. The failure type of the surrounding rock is determined by source parameters. The relationship between surrounding rock deformation and excavation dynamic response is analyzed based on the geological and microseismic data. The results show that the 3D microseismic visualization model can realize the advanced detection of the internal damage of surrounding rock. The source parameters reveal that tensile failure is the main form of failure in the tunnel surrounding rock. Strong unloading and poor geological conditions are the main factors affecting the stability of surrounding rock mass. The study combines microseismic monitoring with field investigation, and then comprehensively evaluates the stability of the tunnel surrounding rock providing a reference for similar underground engineering.

Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ecological risk faced by QTP ecosystems under the influence of climate factors. The results show that ecological risk gradually decreases from northwest to the southeast, and there are different trends in ecological risk for each class in areas with different elevation gradients. As elevation increased, the proportion of potential risk areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of high- and higher-risk areas gradually increased. We predict that in the period 2021–2100, the overall ecological risk change trend on the QTP will not be obvious, but there will be a more obvious change on the vertical gradient. In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations.

Ensemble evaluation of the potential risk areas of yellow-legged hornet distribution.

Invasion of alien species facilitated by climate change and human assistant is one of global threats that cause irreversible damages on the local flora and fauna. One of these issued species, Vespa velutina nigrithoraxdu Buysson, 1905 (Hymenoptera:Vespidae), is a significant threat to entomofauna, including honeybees, in the introduced regions. This wasp is still expanding its habitats, prioritizing the development of a reliable species distribution model based on recently updated occurrence data. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the potential areas that are climatically exposed to V. v. nigrithorax invasion globally and in South Korea, where the wasp has caused severe damage to local ecosystems and apiculture after its recent introduction. We developed a new global scale ensemble model based on CLIMEX and Maxent models and applied it to South Korea using field survey data. As a result, risky areas were predicted to be temperate and subtropical climate regions, including the eastern USA, western Europe, Far East Asia, and small areas in South America and Australia. In particular, South Korea has a high potential risk throughout the country. We expect that this study would provide fundamental data for monitoring the environmental risks caused by V. v. nigrithorax using advanced species distribution modeling.

Alien fish species in open waters of India: Appearance, establishment and impacts

The diverse germplasms pool already available in the vast and varied water resources of India has potential to cater to the need of the fisheries and aquaculture sector, but introduction of fish species for different purposes is still continuing. The exotic fishes introduced into India for different purposes covers nearly 13.6% of total fish diversity. Due to wider tolerance limit and generalist nature, some alien fish species have acclimatised to diverse eco-climatic conditions. Some of these introduced fishes are now established in the open water bodies including rivers, wetlands and reservoirs and some others are in the process of establishment. Degraded open waters and wanton destruction of fishery resources in the rivers have resulted in depletion of the sensitive fish species and appearance of exotic fishes. The potential risk areas for appearance of the alien species are mushrooming fish culture units in different parts of the country, porous boundaries, farming of alien fishes in flood prone areas, rapid expansion of aquaculture and ornamental fish trade. Eradication of an introduced species is usually difficult or impossible once it is established in open water bodies. Therefore, there is an urgent need to regulate the import of alien fish species, based on their merit and likely impacts on open waters.

Global potential distribution prediction of Xanthium italicum based on Maxent model

Alien invasive plants pose a threat to global biodiversity and the cost of control continues to rise. Early detection and prediction of potential risk areas are essential to minimize ecological and socio-economic costs. In this study, the Maxent model was used to predict current and future climatic conditions to estimate the potential global distribution of the invasive plant Xanthium italicum. The model consists of 366 occurrence records (10 repeats, 75% for calibration and 25% for verification) and 10 climate prediction variables. According to the model forecast, the distribution of X. italicum was expected to shrink in future climate scenarios with human intervention, which may be mainly caused by the rise in global average annual temperature. The ROC curve showed that the AUC values of the training set and the test set are 0.965 and 0.906, respectively, indicating that the prediction result of this model was excellent. The contribution rates of annual mean temperature, monthly mean diurnal temperature range, standard deviation of temperature seasonal change and annual average precipitation to the geographical distribution of X. italicum were 65.3%, 11.2%, 9.0%, and 7.7%, respectively, and the total contribution rate was 93.2%. These four variables are the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of X. italicum, and the influence of temperature is greater than that of precipitation. Through our study on the potential distribution prediction of X. italicum under the future climatic conditions, it has contribution for all countries to strengthen its monitoring, prevention and control, including early warning.

Potential risk to water resources under eco-restoration policy and global change in the Tibetan Plateau

Water shortage is a core problem that has hindered sustainable development worldwide. The Tibetan Plateau feeds ten main rivers on which almost 20% of the world’s population depends. However, the plateau has suffered serious environmental deterioration from global warming. Since the 1980s, the Chinese government has supported ecological restoration in the Tibetan Plateau, mainly by promoting large-scale afforestation and grassland conservation. To identify the impact of global change and ecological restoration policy on the plateau, we used geographic information system (GIS) methodologies to study changes to the water supplies in the region as a result of implemented restoration programs. Moreover, we also used GIS to assess the potential risks of these changes for the long-term sustainability of water supplies. Our findings show that the quantity of water supplies in the Tibetan Plateau has increased over the last 36 years; this was attributed to an increase in precipitation as well as increasing glacial meltwater due to global warming. We also found that the water consumption associated with afforestation projects reduced the water yield, in that it was altered by the artificial establishment of plant communities, with different afforestation projects variously impacting water consumption. The potential risk areas in the plateau were mainly distributed in areas with dense human populations and villages, and intensive human activities around forest shrubs where ecological restoration programs had been largely implemented. We highlight the need for ecosystem management and monitoring within larger afforestation programs, which should include the planting of vegetation with low rates of water consumption.

Aelurostrongylus abstrusus Antibody Seroprevalence Reveals That Cats Are at Risk of Infection throughout Germany.

Cats infected with the metastrongylid nematode Aelurostrongylus abstrusus may show clinical signs ranging from mild to severe respiratory disease or remain unobserved, despite damages present in the lung tissue. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence and distribution of A. abstrusus in cats by testing serum samples from all over Germany to identify potential risk areas and strengthen disease awareness accordingly. Sera of 2998 cats were screened for the presence of antibodies against A. abstrusus by ELISA, and the data were evaluated by a geographic information system to visualise the regional distribution of the analysed samples. Overall, 12.0% of the samples tested positive (361/2998 cats, 95% confidence interval: 10.9–13.3%). Seropositive cats were identified throughout the country, suggesting that all cats in Germany with outdoor access are at risk of A. abstrusus infection and that the infection is overall underdiagnosed. Increased testing for A. abstrusus infection would allow earlier detection of infected animals, hence improving the life quality and health of cats and preventing potential death under anaesthesia.

Identification of Risk Areas for Intestinal Schistosomiasis, Based on Malacological and Environmental Data and on Reported Human Cases.

The aim of the present study was to use an integrated approach for the identification of risk areas for Schistosoma mansoni transmission in an area of low endemicity in Minas Gerais, Brazil. For that, areas of distribution of Biomphalaria glabrata were identified and were related to environmental variables and communities with reported schistosomiasis cases, in order to determine the risk of infection by spatial analyses with predictive models. The research was carried out in the municipality of Alvorada de Minas, with data obtained between the years 2017 and 2019 inclusive. The Google Earth Engine was used to obtain geo-climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, vegetation index and digital elevation model), R software to determine Pearson's correlation and MaxEnt software to obtain an ecological model. ArcGis Software was used to create maps with data spatialization and risk maps, using buffer models (diameters: 500, 1,000 and 1,500 m) and CoKriging. Throughout the municipality, 46 collection points were evaluated. Of these, 14 presented snails of the genus Biomphalaria. Molecular analyses identified the presence of different species of Biomphalaria, including B. glabrata. None of the snails eliminated S. mansoni cercariae. The distribution of B. glabrata was more abundant in areas of natural vegetation (forest and cerrado) and, for spatial analysis (Buffer), the main risk areas were identified especially in the main urban area and toward the northern and eastern extensions of the municipality. The distribution of snails correlated with temperature and precipitation, with the latter being the main variable for the ecological model. In addition, the integration of data from malacological surveys, environmental characterization, fecal contamination, and data from communities with confirmed human cases, revealed areas of potential risk for infection in the northern and eastern regions of the municipality. In the present study, information was integrated on epidemiological aspects, transmission and risk areas for schistosomiasis in a small, rural municipality with low endemicity. Such integrated methods have been proposed as important tools for the creation of schistosomiasis transmission risk maps, serve as an example for other communities and can be used for control actions by local health authorities, e.g., indicate priority sectors for sanitation measures.

Interaction between environmental and socioeconomic determinants for cutaneous leishmaniasis risk in Latin America.

ABSTRACTObjective.Determine and characterize potential risk areas for the occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Latin America (LA).Method.Ecological observational study with observation units defined by municipalities with CL transmission between 2014-2018. Environmental and socioeconomic variables available for at least 85% of the municipalities were used, combined in a single database, utilizing the R software. The principal component analysis methodology was combined with a hierarchical cluster analysis to group clusters of municipalities based on their similarity. The V-test was estimated to define the positive or negative association of the variables with the clusters and separation by natural breaks was used to determine which ones contributed the most to each cluster. Information on cases was also incorporated in the analyses to attribute CL risk for each cluster.Results.This study included 4,951 municipalities with CL transmission (36.5% of the total in LA) and seven clusters were defined by their association with 18 environmental and socioeconomic variables. The historical risk of CL is positively associated with the Amazonian, Andean and Savannah clusters in a decreasingly manner; and negatively associated with the Forest evergreen, Forest/crop and Forest/populated clusters. The Agricultural cluster did not reveal any association with the CL cases.Conclusions.The study made it possible to identify and characterize the CL risk by clusters of municipalities and to recognize the epidemiological distribution pattern of transmission, which provides managers with better information for intersectoral interventions to control CL.

First horizontal and first vertical derivatives from high resolution aeromagnetic data over the Gongola basin upper Benue trough Northeastern Nigeria

High-resolution aeromagnetic data investigation was carried out over the Gongola basin upper Benue trough northeastern Nigeria. Total intensity magnetic map were processed to get the residual map, reduction to equator, polynomial fitting, radially average power spectrum (RAPS) were done, subsequently the first horizontal and first vertical derivatives of the data was carried out in order to identify linear structures (faults and fractures). The outcomes from both the horizontal and vertical derivatives give contact locations that are continuous, thin and show major structures in the NE-SW direction both in the maps and in the rose diagrams. The study focused on delineation of geological structures such as rock contacts; rock boundaries, fractures and faulted zones from the maps, they are principally important in mineral resources studies because many of these resources are located along fracture zones. Linear structures perceived in this kind of studies are also reliable indicators for geologic structures. The result of this work is also significant in identifying areas to be avoided when constructing bridges, dams as well as siting nuclear power plants and delineation of potential risk areas of natural hazard.
 Keywords: Aeromagnetic Data, first Horizontal Derivative, first Vertical Derivatives, Gongola Basin, Linear Features.

Spatial distribution of Culex mosquito abundance and associated risk factors in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the major cause of viral encephalitis (VE) in most Asian-Pacific countries. In Vietnam, there is no nationwide surveillance system for JE due to lack of medical facilities and diagnoses. Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Culex vishnui, and Culex quinquefasciatus have been identified as the major JE vectors in Vietnam. The main objective of this study was to forecast a risk map of Culex mosquitoes in Hanoi, which is one of the most densely populated cities in Vietnam. A total of 10,775 female adult Culex mosquitoes were collected from 513 trapping locations. We collected temperature and precipitation information during the study period and its preceding month. In addition, the other predictor variables (e.g., normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI], land use/land cover and human population density), were collected for our analysis. The final model selected for estimating the Culex mosquito abundance included centered rainfall, quadratic term rainfall, rice cover ratio, forest cover ratio, and human population density variables. The estimated spatial distribution of Culex mosquito abundance ranged from 0 to more than 150 mosquitoes per 900m2. Our model estimated that 87% of the Hanoi area had an abundance of mosquitoes from 0 to 50, whereas approximately 1.2% of the area showed more than 100 mosquitoes, which was mostly in the rural/peri-urban districts. Our findings provide better insight into understanding the spatial distribution of Culex mosquitoes and its associated environmental risk factors. Such information can assist local clinicians and public health policymakers to identify potential areas of risk for JE virus. Risk maps can be an efficient way of raising public awareness about the virus and further preventive measures need to be considered in order to prevent outbreaks and onwards transmission of JE virus.

Identification of Ecological Risk Zoning on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the Perspective of Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand

With the interaction of global change and human activities, the contradistinction between supply and demand of ecosystem services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is becoming increasingly tense, which will have a profound impact on the ecological security of China and even Asia. Based on land cover data on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1990, 2005, and 2015, this paper estimated the supply capacity of ecosystem services using the value equivalent method, calculated the demand for ecosystem services using population density and economic density, established an ecosystem risk index based on the idea of an ecosystem service matrix to reveal the spatio-temporal pattern of the supply and demand of ecosystem services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and identified the potential ecological risk areas arising from the imbalance between supply and demand. The results showed that: (1) In terms of the spatio-temporal pattern of land use change, the desert area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau decreased the most with 26,238.9 km2, and other types of land use increased, of which construction land increased by 131.7%; (2) In terms of the supply and demand of ecosystem services, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was mainly dominated by low-level surplus areas, accounting for 64.0%, and the deficit in some areas has worsened significantly; and (3) In terms of division pattern of ecological risk areas, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau presented characteristics of high risk in the east and low risk in the west. The high-risk area accounted for 1.1%, mainly distributed in the Huangshui Valley and the “One River and Two Tributaries” (Yarlung Zangbo River, Lhasa River, Nianchu River). The research results can provide reference for ecosystem management and policy formulation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and have important significance for realizing the coupling and coordinated development of human–land relationship in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

해적피해예방법의 문제점과 개선방안에 관한 연구

The act on the prevention of damage from piracy has been legislated to ensure safety and prevent damage to ships and crews on international voyages from piracy. However, there is no improvement in related problems after the law was enacted, so it is necessary to supplement them. The purpose of this study is to point out the problems of the act on the prevention of damage from piracy and to present an effective improvement plan. In order to identify problems with the act on the prevention of damage from piracy, the Status of Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships was investigated, and the main contents of the act were reviewed. As a result of the study, the definition of risk area and potential risk area for piracy and the need for improvement in the provisions related to passage reporting and citadel were confirmed, and a revised plan was suggested. Since the act on the prevention of damage from piracy is related to the lives of our crew, continuous legal review is required to respond to the increasing number of piracy.

A Geomorphic Approach for Identifying Flash Flood Potential Areas in the East Rapti River Basin of Nepal

Basin geomorphology is a complete system of landforms and topographic features that play a crucial role in the basin-scale flood risk evaluation. Nepal is a country characterized by several rivers and under the influence of frequent floods. Therefore, identifying flood risk areas is of paramount importance. The East Rapti River, a tributary of the Ganga River, is one of the flood-affected basins, where two major cities are located, making it crucial to assess and mitigate flood risk in this river basin. A morphometric calculation was made based on the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) 30-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in the Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The watershed, covering 3037.29 km2 of the area has 14 sub-basins (named as basin A up to N), where twenty morphometric parameters were used to identify flash flood potential sub-basins. The resulting flash flood potential maps were categorized into five classes ranging from very low to very high-risk. The result shows that the drainage density, topographic relief, and rainfall intensity have mainly contributed to flash floods in the study area. Hence, flood risk was analyzed pixel-wise based on slope, drainage density, and precipitation. Existing landcover types extracted from the potential risk area indicated that flash flood is more frequent along the major Tribhuvan Rajpath highway. The landcover data shows that human activities are highly concentrated along the west (Eastern part of Bharatpur) and the east (Hetauda) sections. The study concludes that the high human concentrated sub-basin “B” has been categorized as a high flood risk sub-basin; hence, a flood-resilient city planning should be prioritized in the basin.

Risk assessment of route options for the Hanau–Würzburg/Fulda railway project

AbstractIn the course of the preliminary planning of the new Gelnhausen–Fulda railway line which is part of the railway project Hanau–Würzburg/Fulda, two route options with tunnels, bridges, cuts and embankments are to be investigated and assessed as efficiently as possible with regard to potential geotechnical risk areas. Due to the geological and hydrogeological conditions within the north‐eastern Hessian Buntsandsteingebirge, several groundwater levels, landslides in tunnel portal areas and karstification structures are to be expected on the two route options, each of which is approx. 45 km long. In order to obtain detailed and, above all, large‐scale knowledge of geotechnical hazards of each route = in the preliminary stage of the exploration programme, geophysical surface investigations are a cost‐ and time‐optimized exploration method in addition to standard drilling. These findings as well as existing subsurface information are combined by means of BIM, so that risk areas can be identified at an early stage of the project and taken into account when selecting the most affordable route.