Anticipation Of Conflict Research Articles

Want a More Effective School? Better Start with the Culture

ABSTRACT In this article, the relationships between the nature of the professional leadership culture and student learning are examined according to the professionals’ perceptions. The qualitative case study examined the perceptions of school-level professionals in one elementary school with a reputation for strong results in student learning, regarding the nature of the professional leadership culture and its relationship to student learning. Professional leadership culture is defined by this author as shared assumptions, practices, beliefs and values concerning leadership activities that are understood and practiced among school professionals. E. H. Schein’s (2010) organizational culture and leadership model provided the conceptual framework for the study. The three most common representations of the professional leadership culture included pervasive collaboration among professionals, a culture of trust, and a supportive environment. This study prompts some reflection for theory-building on the connection between the concept of leadership and its role in improving school culture. Policy implications of the study are discussed as they relate to human resources issues and their connection to culture and leadership, priorities regarding personnel supervision and evaluation, standards for a respectful workplace, the institutionalization of trust, open communication, supportive relationships, collaboration, and the anticipation and management of workplace conflict.

Correction to: Public and Private Information in International Crises: Diplomatic Correspondence and Conflict Anticipation

Correction to: Public and Private Information in International Crises: Diplomatic Correspondence and Conflict Anticipation

Conflict Resolution In Regional Elections In South Aceh Regency

The implementation of regional elections in Indonesia has experienced various kinds of conflicts and riots. South Aceh is a district that directly celebrates the regional election democracy celebration. In South Aceh Regency, a number of general elections, both legislative and regional head elections, were not free from conflict and violence. The high level of sentiment and division among community members before and after the 2018 regional elections. The handling and anticipation of potential conflicts carried out by the South Aceh Regency regional government in the 2018 regional elections was still not optimal.This study used a qualitative approach with descriptive methods. Data collection was done by field observations, in-depth interviews and literature study. While the informant conducted in a purposive determination. The data is processed and analyzed according to qualitative research stage.The conflicts that occurred during the post-conflict local elections in South Aceh Regency occurred due to distrust and hostility between different groups in society, incompatible positions and different views on conflict by the parties experiencing the conflict, conflicts that were rooted in basic human needs. both physically, mentally and socially unfulfilled, identity that is threatened, often rooted in the loss of something or suffering in the past that has not been resolved, incompatibility in ways of communicating between different cultures between society and the central government or regional government, as well as problems -problems of injustice, inequality that emerge as social, cultural and economic problems in the community of South Aceh Regency. Therefore, resolution needs to be carried out so that the conflict in South Aceh Regency can be resolved, including through the peace keeping (maintaining peace), peace building (building peace) and peace making (making peace) models. There are new findings that can be made in conflict resolution efforts in South Aceh Regency through the juridical aspect.

Conflict Resolution Efforts Through The Implementation Of Inclusive Development In The New National Capital Region

The relocation of the national capital to east kalimantan requires various preparations. one of them is the need for strategies from the government in various anticipation of potential conflicts that can occur in the new capital region. the relocation of the national capital triggers the creation of friction due to development between migrants and local people who have long lived. There are potential conflicts that can come from various aspects such as social, economic, cultural, political, and this will certainly affect Indonesia's national resilience in preparing for the future of the new IKN. The results of this study are in the form of potential socio-economic conflicts that are packaged in conflict sources in the form of structural conflicts, conflicts of interest, conflicts of values, psychological social conflicts, and also data conflicts in the form of the environment, customs, and livelihoods of the people in IKN. Based on this research, the concept of inclusive development can be applied by the central government by paying attention to three components, namely social structure, culture, and social processes. There are several ways that can be done as conflict resolution actions, one of which is with an inclusive development approach which certainly requires the involvement of all levels of society in the development process. The relocation of the national capital to east kalimantan requires various preparations. one of them is the need for strategies from the government in various anticipation of potential conflicts that can occur in the new capital region. the relocation of the national capital triggers the creation of friction due to development between migrants and local people who have long lived. There are potential conflicts that can come from various aspects such as social, economic, cultural, political, and this will certainly affect Indonesia's national resilience in preparing for the future of the new IKN. The results of this study are in the form of potential socio-economic conflicts that are packaged in conflict sources in the form of structural conflicts, conflicts of interest, conflicts of values, psychological social conflicts, and also data conflicts in the form of the environment, customs, and livelihoods of the people in IKN. Based on this research, the concept of inclusive development can be applied by the central government by paying attention to three components, namely social structure, culture, and social processes. There are several ways that can be done as conflict resolution actions, one of which is with an inclusive development approach which certainly requires the involvement of all levels of society in the development process.

Assessing the limits of centralized unmanned aerial vehicle conflict management in U‐Space

AbstractThere is an important growth of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) performing planned missions in urban environments, which poses significant challenges to the research community. The possibility of collisions represents a critical challenge. UAVs can suffer collisions due to different causes external or internal to their flight plans. In this context, dynamic geo‐fencing is a useful approach, whereby each UAV is able to provide a prediction of its future positions within a limited time. These predictions could be used to detect conflicts, allowing to dynamically modify the flight plans so as to avoid imminent collisions. In this work, a conflict detection algorithm/method is proposed, implemented and tested on a central server performing real‐time conflict analysis for a large number of UAVs flying in the aerial space of a city (U‐Space). The architecture assumes that UAVs send their future locations to a traffic controller. This controller compares the predicted positions of nearby vehicles to detect possible conflicts. The results of this work demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed conflict detection algorithm and its interest to improve the security and efficiency in U‐Space environments. The server is able to track thousands of UAVs in real time with a conflict anticipation around 11 s.

Spouses’ attachment orientations shape physiological responses to relational stress over time

This research examined how the interplay between spouses’ attachment orientations contributes to physiological responses to relational stress. Mixed-gender newlyweds ( N Wave 1 = 218 couples; N Wave 2 = 184 couples; N Wave 3 = 164 couples) discussed relationship conflicts during three laboratory sessions over the first 3–4 years of marriage. Individuals provided saliva samples to assess their cortisol levels before, during, and after each conflict, which reflected physiological responses to stress. Across all three waves, anxiously-attached individuals showed greater cortisol reactivity (via faster rates of cortisol change and/or more exaggerated changes in cortisol slope) in anticipation of conflicts, especially when they had an avoidantly-attached partner. Findings highlight the dyadic nature of spouses’ responses to relational stress.

Public and Private Information in International Crises: Diplomatic Correspondence and Conflict Anticipation

Abstract Scholars of international conflicts have long emphasized the role of private information in the onset of interstate wars. Yet, the literature lacks direct and systematic evidence of its effect. This is largely due to challenges with accessing decision-makers’ private and often confidential information and opinions. We compile a large corpus of declassified French diplomatic cables that span the period 1871–1914. Using these texts, we estimate a dynamic topic model to generate diplomatic thematic variables, which are then used to forecast the onset of French Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs). The inclusion of information from diplomatic correspondence greatly improves estimates of MID timing, compared to models that rely solely on public information such as structural determinants and revealed risk perceptions derived from financial markets or the press. These results emphasize the importance of private information in decisions to go to war and the limitations of empirical work that relies solely on publicly available data.

Indonesian foreign policy and its response to South China Sea affairs for regional stability

This research explains the relationship between Indonesian foreign policy and taking the case studies of conflicts in the South China Sea. Today the dispute between the two major countries, such as America and China, is increasingly heating up in the South China Sea discourse, coupled with the increasing dynamics of the strategic environment that directly impact Indonesia's foreign policy and politics. The research method used in this research is a qualitative research method, supported by literature studies. In international politics, Indonesia has determined its position as a country that adheres to the principle of active free foreign policy, which in terms of foreign policy, Indonesia will not be influenced by the hands of other countries. This paper shows that Indonesia's defense policies and strategies in anticipation of the South China Sea conflict have not been properly announced. It was found that defense policy and strategy have not been in line with the foreign policy that pays special attention to the dynamics of the Southeast Asian region, including in the South China Sea. In addition, the latest defense policies and strategies have not paid attention to the dynamics of the South China Sea conflict. Indonesia's defense policy and strategy still consider that the conflation in the South China Sea can be resolved through soft power and does not anticipate the use of hard power that will have implications for Indonesia's national interests.

As Though “Wit” Never Were: The Dual Pronoun as Interpretive Crux in The Wife's Lament

As Though “Wit” Never Were: The Dual Pronoun as Interpretive Crux in <i>The Wife's Lament</i>

The Effect of Fragility on Labour Market Employment and Wages in the Philippines

Fragility refers to weak regional institutions that fail to respond to specific risks and needs of the community. The article aims to measure fragility and its effects on labour market employment and wages. The observed non-work-related migration is used to derive annual fragility indices for regions that are then incorporated into standard labour market employment and Mincer wage equations. The estimates indicate higher employment but lower wages in fragile regions. Under weak institutions, workers will decide to engage in alternative low-paying work arrangements in anticipation of conflict, environmental or income shocks. Furthermore, biases on effects of macroeconomic policies can be noted in regression estimates that do not control for fragility.

Farmers-Herdsmen conflicts: Effect of Resilience Strategy on Arable crop Productivity in the Ogbomoso Agricultural Zone of Oyo State

Over the years, contests over land for crop production and pasture for animals among crop farmers and herders have been a subject of concern. The study therefore examine the effect of resilience on arable crop productivity after farmers-herdsmen conflicts in the Ogbomoso Agricultural Zone of Oyo State. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 270 arable crop farmers, which is about 29.4% of the 919 registered arable crop farmers for the study, using a structured questionnaire to obtain primary data. Data collected was analysed using descriptive statistics like tables, percentages and inferential statistics such as ordinary least square regression to analyse the effect of resilience strategy to shocks of conflict anticipation cost and arable crop productivity. All analyses were tested at a 5% level of significance. The result of the OLS regression analysis model for the effect of resilience techniques on arable crop productivity indicated that years spent in school (p = 0.97), size of farm (p = 0.006), hired labour after conflict (p = 0.000), transformative index (p = 0.000), absorptive index (p = 0.008) and adaptive index (p = 0.008) were significantly related to arable crop productivity. The transformative, absorptive, and adaptive resilience strategies significantly influenced arable crop productivity after farmers-herdsmen conflicts in the study area. The study concluded that adhere to the rule and regulations of the community serve as a means of preventing conflicts between farmers and herders, Further increasing farm size requires more commitment from the farmer and thus becomes more attached to the farm materially, physically and emotionally. The study recommends that the resilience strategies employed by the respondents should be investigated and adopted by appropriate authorities in order to mitigate the regular conflicts between farmers and herders in Nigeria.

Democratic leadership in a study of school based professional leadership culture: policy implications

ABSTRACT This article examines elements of democratic leadership emerging from a broader study of professional leadership culture in a school setting. The qualitative case study examined the perceptions of school-level professionals in one elementary school with a reputation for strong results in student learning, regarding the nature of the professional leadership culture and its relationship to student learning. Professional leadership culture is defined as shared assumptions, practices, beliefs and values concerning leadership activities that are understood and practised among school professionals. Previous studies into organizational and leadership provided the conceptual framework for this study. The three most common representations of the professional leadership culture included pervasive collaboration among professionals, a culture of trust, and a supportive environment. This study prompts some reflection for theory-building on the concept of democratic leadership and its role in organizational culture. Policy implications of the study are discussed as they relate to human resources issues and their connection to culture and leadership, priorities regarding personnel supervision and evaluation, standards for a respectful workplace, the institutionalization of trust, open communication, supportive relationships, collaboration, and the anticipation and management of workplace conflict.

Using meaningful places as an indicator for sense of place in the management of social-ecological systems

Sense of place is increasingly advocated to support the management of social-ecological systems. Given the concept’s complexity, we suggest that an indicator for sense of place is needed to facilitate its application in practical planning. We propose such an indicator called “meaningful places,” defined as geographic locations to which (i) immediately perceived as well as socially constructed meanings are ascribed and (ii) evaluative attachments are tied. We applied the indicator in two independent case studies, Lübeck and Lahn, both of which aimed to integrate sense of place in an actual planning process. The case studies differed in the spatial scale of the meaningful places, the indicator’s operationalization, and the specific assessment methods. In the Lübeck case, semi-structured interviews and a simple mapping method were used to analyze participants’ “home-regions.” The results revealed diverse but overlapping locations characterized as aesthetic, different from others, close to nature, and quiet (place meanings). In the Lahn case, a public participation GIS (public participation geographic information system [PPGIS]) survey was conducted and yielded insights into the spatial distribution of meaningful places. The results reflect a wide range of place meanings linked to, for example, activities, aesthetic qualities, or well-being. Furthermore, participants expressed different intensities of place attachments. Although the indicator is still in an exploratory stage, it allows for reflection on potential benefits for planning practitioners. The resulting data can be combined with spatial information usually used in planning processes, e.g., about the state of the underlying physical environment and/or foreseeable drivers of change. This offers new opportunities for managers regarding the determination of priorities to conserve meaningful places, the anticipation of conflicts, and the utilization of the communicative power of meaningful places. We argue that the benefits for planning justify a new direction of research devoted to the development and further advancement of the indicator.

Identifying predictors of international fisheries conflict

AbstractMarine capture fishery resources are declining, and demand for them is rising. These trends are suspected to incite conflict, but their effects have not been quantitatively examined. We applied a multi‐model ensemble approach to a global database of international fishery conflicts between 1974 and 2016 to test the supply‐induced scarcity hypothesis (diminishing supplies of fishery resources increase fisheries conflict), the demand‐induced scarcity hypothesis (rising demand for fishery resources increases fisheries conflict), and three alternative political and economic hypotheses. While no single indicator was able to fully explain international conflict over fishery resources, we found a positive relationship between increased conflict over fishery resources and higher levels of per capita GDP for the period 1975–1996. For the period 1997–2016, we found evidence supporting the demand‐induced scarcity hypothesis, and the notion that an increase in supply of fishery resources is linked to an increase in conflict occurrence. By identifying significant predictors of international fisheries conflict, our analysis provides useful information for policy approaches for conflict anticipation and management.

In-vehicle displays to support driver anticipation of traffic conflicts in automated vehicles

ObjectiveThis paper investigates the effectiveness of in-vehicle displays in supporting drivers’ anticipation of traffic conflicts in automated vehicles (AVs). BackgroundProviding takeover requests (TORs) along with information on automation capability (AC) has been found effective in supporting AV drivers’ reactions to traffic conflicts. However, it is unclear what type of information can support drivers in anticipating traffic conflicts, so they can intervene (pre-event action) or prepare to intervene (pre-event preparation) proactively to avert them. MethodIn a driving simulator study with 24 experienced and 24 novice drivers, we evaluated the effectiveness of two in-vehicle displays in supporting anticipatory driving in AVs with adaptive cruise control and lane keeping assistance: TORAC (TOR + AC information) and STTORAC displays (surrounding traffic (ST) information + TOR + AC information). Both displays were evaluated against a baseline display that only showed whether the automation was engaged. ResultsCompared to the baseline display, STTORAC led to more anticipatory driving behaviors (pre-event action or pre-event preparation) while TORAC led to less, along with decreased attention to environmental cues that indicated an upcoming event. STTORAC led to the highest level of driving safety, as indicated by minimum gap time for scenarios that required driver intervention, followed by TORAC, and then the baseline display. ConclusionsProviding surrounding traffic information to drivers of AVs, in addition to TORs and automation capability information, can support their anticipation of potential traffic conflicts. Without the surrounding traffic information, drivers can over-rely on displays that provide TORs and automation capability information.

MENAKAR PARTISIPASI POLITIK MASYARAKAT KABUPATEN TANA TORAJA TERHADAP PEMILIHAN KEPALA DAERAH (PILKADA) TAHUN 2020

Studi ini mengkaji tentang menakar partisipasi politik masyarakat Kabupaten Tana Toraja pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Tahun 2020. Faktor yang mempengaruhi penurunan partisipasi masyarakat Tana Toraja pada Pilkada 2015 dapat dijadikan referensi untuk meningkatkan partisipasi pemilih di Pilkada 2020. Terlebih lagi, mempelajari kesiapan masyarakat Tana Toraja pada Pilkada 2020 di masa pandemi penting dilakukan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode deskriptif kualitatif. Teknik pengumpulan data melalui data primer yang didapatkan dari wawancara mendalam kepada narasumber yang berasal dari KPUD Tana Toraja, organisasi semu politik Banteng Muda Indonesia dan Pengamat Politik Tana Toraja. Pengumpulan data skunder dengan mengutip buku, jurnal, dokumen, media online. Teknik analisis data melalui aktivitas reduksi data, display data, dan penarikan kesimpulan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan penurunan partisipasi masyarakat pada Pilkada Tana Toraja Tahun 2015 dipengaruhi tingkat kesadaran politik dan kurangnya kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap pemerintah dalam mengantisipasi konflik antar pendukung pasangan calon. Selain itu, Pilkada Tana Toraja Tahun 2020 di masa pandemi diprediksikan mengalami penurunan terhadap partisipasi masyarakat dalam menggunakan hak pilih. Hal itu disebabkan karena masih tingginya jumlah kasus Covid-19 yang terjadi dan pemungutan suara di bulan Desember dimana pada bulan ini juga factor cuaca cenderung tidak mendukung masyarakat dalam melakukan aktifitasnya sehingga dapat menjadi alasan masyarakat untuk tidak hadir di TPS pada hari pemilihan 9 Desember nanti.

ANTISIPASI DIDAKTIS BERSTRUKTUR KONFLIK KOGNITIF UNTUK MENGATASI HAMBATAN BELAJAR SISWA DALAM MATERI PENJUMLAHAN DAN PENGURANGAN BILANGAN BULAT

This research was backgrounded by the difficulties experienced by junior high school students in understanding the addition and subtraction of integers material. One action chosen to overcome this problem was by designing a didactic anticipation with the cognitive conflict structure. The subjects of this research were the class VII students of SMPN 4 Sungai Pinyuh, of which 5 students were randomly taken as the sample. This research was conducted in two phases, preceded by the pretest to find out the initial difficulties faced by students, followed by intervention in the form of cognitive conflict anticipation, and the posttest to determine whether the designed strategy can reduce the difficulties faced by the students. The results showed that the didactic anticipation with the cognitive conflict structure could facilitate students in understanding the addition and subtraction of integers material.Keywors: Didactic anticipation, Learning obstacles

Microsaccades: Empirical Research and Methodological Advances - Introduction to Part 1 of the Thematic Special Issue.

Microsaccades: Empirical Research and Methodological Advances - Introduction to Part 1 of the Thematic Special Issue.

Anticipated work-family conflict in Brazilian university students

Career development and work-family conflict are two areas of research with extreme theoretical and practical relevance, especially when focusing on job and non-job related life dimensions. With the intent to contribute to this debate, especially to career counseling practices with young adults, the present study investigated how the perception of interactions between roles and demands that arise from these two dimensions – family and work – influence university students’ perceptions of career success. The study was structured in two parts: 1) adaptation of a measure that evaluates work-family conflict anticipation in university students in the Brazilian context; and 2) proposal of a model to evaluate the anticipation of the work-family conflict construct and its relation with the variables success perception, career adaptability and attachment styles. Participants were 424 students enrolled in different majors of public and private institutions from a state in Southeast Brazil, who answered a survey. The results point to a psychological measure with favorable indicators of validity and precision for the evaluation of the work-family conflict anticipation dimensions. Additionally, the proposed model shows that career adaptability dimensions are positive predictors of career success, while insecure attachment dimensions are negative predictors.

Dialogical mediation as an instrument to promote health and social cohesion: results and directions

One of the main challenges in Europe is to focus attention on public policies capable of promoting and maintaining social cohesion. We can see how the interaction between different cultural systems can radicalize the differences. Since those differences are assumed to characterize and identify elements of the specific social groups, they can cause conflicts in the community. This paper aims to describe the elements that allow the implementation of mediation in public policies. An operating model for both emergency use and in anticipation of conflict will be proposed for all the levels at which conflict itself may be generated or has developed: this model will be called “Dialogical Mediation” (Turchi &amp; Gherardini, 2014). This model operates on the interested parties not only in a direct way, but also through all the “voices” that may be involved in repercussions that the conflict may generate (the whole community as a consequence). This is when mediation can be offered as an instrument of public policy, for the management of dialogical interaction between the “migrant community” and the “hosting community”, anticipating conflicts and sustaining interactions as a “single community”.