Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosols Research Articles

IMO2020 Regulations Accelerate Global Warming by up to 3 Years in UKESM1

AbstractThe International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced new regulations on the sulfur content of shipping emissions in 2020 (IMO2020). Estimates of the climatic impact of this global reduction in anthropogenic sulfate aerosols vary widely. Here, we contribute to narrowing this uncertainty with two sets of climate model simulations using UKESM1. Using fixed sea‐surface temperature atmosphere‐only simulations, we estimate an IMO2020 global effective radiative forcing of 0.139 ± 0.019 Wm−2 and show that most of this forcing is due to aerosol‐induced changes to cloud properties. Using coupled ocean‐atmosphere simulations, we note significant changes in cloud top droplet number concentration and size across regions with high shipping traffic density, and—in the North Atlantic and North Pacific—these microphysical changes translate to a decrease in cloud albedo. We show that IMO2020 increases global annual surface temperature on average by 0.046 ± 0.010°C across 2020–2029; approximately 2–3 years of global warming. Furthermore, our model simulations show that IMO2020 helps to explain the exceptional warming in 2023, but other factors are needed to fully account for it. The year 2023 also had an exceptionally large decrease in reflected shortwave radiation at the top‐of‐atmosphere. Our results show that IMO2020 made that more likely, yet the observations are within the variability of simulations without the reduction in shipping emissions. To better understand the climatic impacts of IMO2020, a model intercomparison project would be valuable whilst the community waits for a more complete observational record.

An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles

Abstract. This work assesses a recently produced 21-member climate model large ensemble (LE) based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SM2). The ensemble spans the historical era (1850 to 2014) and 21st century (2015 to 2100), using the SSP370 pathway, allowing for an evaluation of the model's forced response. A companion 500-year preindustrial control simulation is used to initialize the ensemble and estimate drift. Characteristics of the LE are documented and compared against other recently produced ensembles using the E3SM version 1 (E3SM1) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2. Simulation drift is found to be smaller, and model agreement with observations is higher in versions 2 of E3SM and CESM versus their version 1 counterparts. Shortcomings in E3SM2 include a lack of warming from the mid to late 20th century, likely due to excessive cooling influence of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, an issue also evident in E3SM1. Associated impacts on the water cycle and energy budgets are also identified. Considerable model dependence in the response to both aerosols and greenhouse gases is documented and E3SM2's sensitivity to variable prescribed biomass burning emissions is demonstrated. Various E3SM2 and CESM2 model benchmarks are found to be on par with the highest-performing recent generation of climate models, establishing the E3SM2 LE as an important resource for estimating climate variability and responses, though with various caveats as discussed herein. As an illustration of the usefulness of LEs in estimating the potential influence of internal variability, the observed CERES-era trend in net top-of-atmosphere flux is compared to simulated trends and found to be much larger than the forced response in all LEs, with only a few members exhibiting trends as large as observed, thus motivating further study.

Amplified drying in South Asian summer monsoon precipitation due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols

A declining trend in Indian summer monsoon precipitation (ISMP) in the latter half of the 20th century is a scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issue. Heavy aerosol loading over India is one of the key factors in modulating the ISMP. Using the state-of-the-state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, ECHAM6-HAMMOZ, the impacts of South Asian anthropogenic sulfate aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon precipitation were investigated against: (1) 2010 La Niña (excess monsoon), (2) 2015 El Niño (deficit monsoon) in comparison to (3) normal monsoon 2016. Sensitivity simulations were designed with 48% enhancement in South Asian SO2 emissions based on a trend estimated from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations during 2006–2017. The model simulations showed that sulfate aerosols reduce ISMP by 27.5%–43.3 %, while simulations without sulfate loading enhanced ISMP by 23% in 2010 La Niña and reduction by 35% in 2015 El Niño. This paper reports that sulfate aerosols loading over India reduce precipitation by aerosol-induced direct and indirect effects by inducing atmospheric cooling, weakening in the convection, and reduction in moisture transport to Indian landmass. This paper emphasizes the necessity of alternate use of energy to reduce sulfate aerosol emissions to solve water issues in South Asia.

Rapid growth and high cloud-forming potential of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in a thermal power plant plume during COVID lockdown in India

The COVID lockdown presented an interesting opportunity to study the anthropogenic emissions from different sectors under relatively cleaner conditions in India. The complex interplays of power production, industry, and transport could be dissected due to the significantly reduced influence of the latter two emission sources. Here, based on measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity and chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols during the lockdown, we report an episodic event resulting from distinct meteorological conditions. This event was marked by rapid growth and high hygroscopicity of new aerosol particles formed in the SO2 plume from a large coal-fired power plant in Southern India. These sulfate-rich particles had high CCN activity and number concentration, indicating high cloud-forming potential. Examining the sensitivity of CCN properties under relatively clean conditions provides important new clues to delineate the contributions of different anthropogenic emission sectors and further to understand their perturbations of past and future climate forcing.

Sulfur isotopes quantify the impact of anthropogenic activities on industrial-era Arctic sulfate in a Greenland ice core

Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols are estimated to have offset 60% of greenhouse-gas-induced warming in the Arctic, a region warming four times faster than the rest of the world. However, sulfate radiative forcing estimates remain uncertain because the relative contributions from anthropogenic versus natural sources to total sulfate aerosols are unknown. Here we measure sulfur isotopes of sulfate in a Summit, Greenland ice core from 1850 to 2006 CE to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic sulfur emissions to ice core sulfate. We use a Keeling plot to determine the anthropogenic sulfur isotopic signature (δ34Santhro = +2.9 ± 0.3 ‰), and compare this result to a compilation of sulfur isotope measurements of oil and coal. Using δ34Santhro, we quantify anthropogenic sulfate concentration separated from natural sulfate. Anthropogenic sulfate concentration increases to 67 ± 7% of non-sea-salt sulfate (65.1 ± 20.2 µg kg−1) during peak anthropogenic emissions from 1960 to 1990 and decreases to 45 ± 11% of non-sea-salt sulfate (25.4 ± 12.8 µg kg−1) from 1996 to 2006. These observations provide the first long-term record of anthropogenic sulfate distinguished from natural sources (e.g. volcanoes, dimethyl sulfide), and can be used to evaluate model characterization of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol fraction and radiative forcing over the industrial era.

Formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole by reducing anthropogenic sulphate aerosols

The North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH) has been observed and predicted due to the increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. If sulphate aerosols, which have a cooling effect on the atmosphere, are reduced by air pollution control, the NAWH may form as it would if CO2 concentrations increased. In this study, sensitivity experiments using a coupled atmosphere–ocean-aerosol model were conducted by varying the amount of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, a precursor of sulphate which is the primary anthropogenic aerosol in the atmosphere, to analyse the changes in the ocean temperature, salinity, and density. The results showed that although the spatial patterns of the NAWH due to the changes in SO2 emissions was similar to that due to the changes in the CO2 concentrations, the magnitude of the shifts in the ocean parameters due to the changes in SO2 emissions is larger even when changes in global mean temperature are comparable. This can be due to the spatial concentration of sulphate aerosols in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting larger changes in the heat transport from the south on the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current along with changes in freshwater inflow from the Arctic through the Labrador Sea.

Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol pollution in South and East Asia induces increased summer precipitation over arid Central Asia

Precipitation has increased across the arid Central Asia region over recent decades. However, the underlying mechanisms of this trend are poorly understood. Here, we analyze multi-model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to investigate potential drivers of the observed precipitation trend. We find that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols over remote polluted regions in South and East Asia lead to increased summer precipitation, especially convective and extreme precipitation, in arid Central Asia. Elevated concentrations of sulfate aerosols over remote polluted Asia cause an equatorward shift of the Asian Westerly Jet Stream through a fast response to cooling of the local atmosphere at mid-latitudes. This shift favours moisture supply from low-latitudes and moisture flux convergence over arid Central Asia, which is confirmed by a moisture budget analysis. High levels of absorbing black carbon lead to opposing changes in the Asian Westerly Jet Stream and reduced local precipitation, which can mask the impact of sulfate aerosols. This teleconnection between arid Central Asia precipitation and anthropogenic aerosols in remote Asian polluted regions highlights long-range impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on atmospheric circulations and the hydrological cycle.

Assessing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions over the global ocean

How clouds respond to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. This uncertainty limits our ability to predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)-the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Here, we use satellite observations to quantify relationships between sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds while carefully controlling for meteorology. We then combine the relationships with estimates of the change in sulfate concentration since about 1850 to constrain the associated radiative forcing. We estimate that the cloud-mediated radiative forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is [Formula: see text] W m-2 over the global ocean (95% confidence). This constraint implies that ECS is likely between 2.9 and 4.5 K (66% confidence). Our results indicate that aerosol forcing is less uncertain and ECS is probably larger than the ranges proposed by recent climate assessments.

New estimates of aerosol radiative effects over India from surface and satellite observations

Multi-year measurements of surface-reaching solar (shortwave) radiation fluxes across a network of aerosol observatories (ARFINET) are combined with concurrent satellite (CERES)-based top of the atmosphere (TOA) fluxes to estimate regional aerosol direct radiative forcing (ARF) over the Indian region. The synergistic approach improves the accuracy of ARF estimates, which otherwise results in an overestimation or underestimation of the atmospheric forcing. During summer, an overestimation of ~5 W m−2 (corresponding heating rate ~ 0.15 K day−1) is noticed. The regional average ARF from the synergistic approach reveals the surface forcing reaching −49 W m−2 over the Indo Gangetic Plains, −45 W m−2 over northeast India, −34 W m−2 over the southern Peninsula, and − 16 W m−2 in the oceanic regions of the Bay of Bengal. The ARF over the northern half of the Indian subcontinent is influenced mainly by anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols. Dust is dominant in the western region of India during MAM and JJAS. Overall, the clear sky surface reaching solar radiation fluxes is reduced by 3–22% due to the abundance of aerosols in the atmosphere, with the highest reduction over the IGP during autumn and winter.

The Arctic Temperature Response to Global and Regional Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosols

The mechanisms behind Arctic warming and associated climate changes are difficult to discern. Also, the complex local processes and feedbacks like aerosol-cloud-climate interactions are yet to be quantified. Here, using the Community Earth System Model (CAM5) experiments, with emission enhancement of anthropogenic sulfate 1) five-fold globally, 2) ten-times over Asia, and 3) ten-times over Europe we show that regional emissions of sulfate aerosols alter seasonal warming over the Arctic, i.e., colder summer and warmer winter. European emissions play a dominant role in cooling during the summer season (0.7 K), while Asian emissions dominate the warming during the winter season (maximum ∼0.6 K) in the Arctic surface. The cooling/warming is associated with a negative/positive cloud radiative forcing. During the summer season increase in low–mid level clouds, induced by sulfate emissions, favours the solar dimming effect that reduces the downwelling radiation to the surface and thus leads to surface cooling. Warmer winters are associated with enhanced high-level clouds that induce a positive radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. This study points to the importance of international strategies being implemented to control sulfate emissions to combat air pollution. Such strategies will also affect the Arctic cooling/warming associated with a cloud radiative forcing caused by sulfate emission change.

Comparison and evaluation of the simulated annual aerosol characteristics over China with two global aerosol models

In this study, simulations of the annual mean aerosol budget, aerosol optical properties, and surface mass concentration in 2006 in China are performed with two aerosol interactive global atmosphere models, namely, the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) coupled with the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) and the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC_AGCM) coupled with the Canadian Aerosol Module (CAM) online. The observed and simulated aerosol optical depths (AODs) exhibit similar horizontal distributions with large values over eastern and central China, and sulfate aerosols contribute the main differences between the AODs simulated by NICAM and BCC_AGCM. The simulated sulfate and dust surface concentrations are more consistent with observations compared with the simulated carbonaceous surface concentrations, and both models can reproduce the decreasing tendency of the sulfate surface concentration from urban sites to rural sites. However, the dust emission and deposition levels in China simulated by BCC_AGCM are three times as high as those simulated by NICAM, and the major sink processes of the anthropogenic sulfate, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) aerosols over China are very different between the two models. The emission and deposition results, which are closely related to the model-assumed aerosol particle size distribution, indicate that the current aerosol size distribution used in the two models should be further improved. The differences in dust emission parameterizations also lead significant discrepancies in aerosol cycles and the dust emission scheme is an important factor determining the magnitudes of global and regional dust emission fluxes.

PM2.5 chemistry, organosulfates, and secondary organic aerosol during the 2017 Lake Michigan Ozone Study

The Lake Michigan Ozone Study from 21 May to 23 June 2017 (LMOS 2017) aimed to better understand the anthropogenic and biogenic sources that contribute to ozone and fine particles (PM2.5) along the coast of Lake Michigan. Here, we focus on the chemical composition of daytime and nighttime PM2.5—especially organic carbon, inorganic ions and organosulfates—at a ground-based supersite in Zion, Illinois. PM2.5 mass concentrations ranged from 1.5 to 12.9 μg m−3 with an average (±standard error) of 5.2 ± 0.4 μg m−3. The most significant contributor to PM2.5 mass was organic matter (OM; calculated as 1.7 × organic carbon [OC]; contributing an average of 59 ± 2%), followed by sulfate (17 ± 1%), ammonium (6.3 ± 0.3%), nitrate (3.5 ± 0.4%), and elemental carbon (EC; 3.4 ± 0.2%). During each of the three periods of high ozone, PM2.5 had different regional characteristics. Period A (2–3 June) was impacted by lake breeze and south-easterly air masses that travelled over major urban areas. Period A had the highest daily PM2.5 mass concentrations (11.4 ± 1.5 μg m−3) and EC with a relatively low OC:EC ratio of 7.0, indicating the influence of sources with low OC:EC ratios, which includes the anthropogenic combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Period B (10–13 June) was impacted by air masses traveling from the southern US. It had a relatively high OC:EC ratio of 18, the highest PM2.5 sulfate concentrations and aerosol acidity, and elevated mixing ratios of isoprene along with its oxidation products methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACR). Peak concentrations of organosulfates, including methyltetrol sulfate (m/z 215; C5H11SO7−), were also observed throughout period B. Period C (13–17 June) followed a change to northerly winds. PM2.5 concentrations decreased along with decreases in sulfate, acidity, and most organosulfates. Throughout the study, organosulfates accounted for an average of 4% of OM and up to 15% of OM in Period B. Organosulfates were largely isoprene-derived, with lessor contributions from monoterpenes (0.3%) and anthropogenic sources (0.5%). Through these measurements of organosulfates in the Great Lakes region, we demonstrate the importance of anthropogenic sulfate emissions and aerosol acidity on SOA formation, and establish that isoprene-derived organosulfates, in particular, contribute significantly to PM2.5. With other LMOS observations, the chemical signatures of PM2.5, and back trajectories show that ozone episodes cooccur with localized lake-breeze meteorology within air masses that vary from episode to episode in chemical history and source region.

Tropical Pacific Ocean Dynamical Response to Short-Term Sulfate Aerosol Forcing

Abstract The large-scale and long-term climate impacts of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols consist of Northern Hemisphere cooling and a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. On interannual time scales, however, the response to aerosols is localized with a sizable imprint on local ocean–atmosphere interaction. A large concentration of anthropogenic sulfates over Asia may impact ENSO by modifying processes and interactions that generate this coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. Here, we use climate model experiments with different degrees of ocean–atmosphere coupling to study the tropical Pacific response to an abrupt increase in anthropogenic sulfates. These include an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to either a full-ocean GCM or a slab-ocean model, or simply forced by climatology of sea surface temperature. Comparing the responses helps differentiate between the fast atmospheric and slow ocean-mediated responses, and highlights the role of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the latter. We demonstrate the link between the Walker circulation and the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean dynamics in response to increased sulfate aerosols. The local surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols emitted over the Asian continent drives atmospheric subsidence over the equatorial west Pacific. The associated anomalous circulation imparts westerly momentum to the underlying Pacific Ocean, leading to an El Niño–like upper-ocean response and a transient warming of the east equatorial Pacific Ocean. The oceanic adjustment eventually contributes to its decay, giving rise to a damped oscillation of the tropical Pacific Ocean in response to abrupt anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing.

Regional Arctic Amplification by a Fast Atmospheric Response to Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosol Forcing in China

AbstractIt is known that an increase of water vapor over the Arctic is one of most plausible causes driving Arctic amplification. However, debate continues with regard to the explanation of the underlying mechanisms driving the increase of moisture over the Arctic region in the observations. Here, we used the Community Atmosphere Model with prescribed sea surface temperature along with reanalysis datasets to examine the role of fast atmospheric responses to the increase of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol concentrations in China. We found that it plays an additive role in moisture transport from the midlatitudes, resulting in warming of the Arctic region, especially around the Barents–Kara Seas. Specifically, sulfate aerosol forcing in China reduces the meridional temperature gradient and leads to the increase of moisture transport into the Arctic by altering atmospheric circulation. The resulting increase of moisture then leads to surface warming through the enhancement of the downwelling longwave radiation. This implies that Arctic warming around the Barents–Kara Seas has been accelerated, at least in part, by a fast atmospheric response to anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions in China in the recent past.

Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries

AbstractThe Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring‐width chronologies from the west‐central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80‐year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448‐year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease.

Early 21st century anthropogenic changes in extremely hot days as simulated by the C20C+ detection and attribution multi-model ensemble

Abstract We examine the effect of the 20th and recent 21st century anthropogenic climate change on high temperature extremes as simulated by four global atmospheric general circulation models submitted to the Climate of the 20th Century Plus Detection and Attribution project. This coordinated experiment is based upon two large ensembles simulations for each participating model. The “world that was” simulations are externally forced as realistically as possible. The “world that might have been” is identical except that the influence of human forcing is removed but natural forcing agents and variations in ocean and sea ice are retained. We apply a stationary generalized extreme value analysis to the annual maxima of the three day average of the daily maximum surface air temperature, finding that long period return values have been increased by human activities between 1 and 3 °C over most land areas. Corresponding changes in the probability of achieving long period non-industrial return values in the industrialized world are also presented. We find that most regions experience increases in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot three day periods, but anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing changes locally can decrease these measures of heat waves in some models.

The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency

Observed Atlantic major hurricane frequency has exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability since the 1940s. However, the cause of this variability is debated. Using observations and a coupled earth system model (GFDL-ESM2G), here we show that the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005–2015 is associated with a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) inferred from ocean observations. Directly observed North Atlantic sulfate aerosol optical depth has not increased (but shows a modest decline) over this period, suggesting the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005–2015 is not likely due to recent changes in anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Instead, we find coherent multidecadal variations involving the inferred AMOC and Atlantic major hurricane frequency, along with indices of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and inverted vertical wind shear. Our results provide evidence for an important role of the AMOC in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Cloud albedo changes in response to anthropogenic sulfate and non-sulfate aerosol forcings in CMIP5 models

Abstract. The effects of different aerosol types on cloud albedo are analysed using the linear relation between total albedo and cloud fraction found on a monthly mean scale in regions of subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds and the influence of simulated aerosol variations on this relation. Model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to separately study the responses to increases in sulfate, non-sulfate and all anthropogenic aerosols. A cloud brightening on the month-to-month scale due to variability in the background aerosol is found to dominate even in the cases where anthropogenic aerosols are added. The aerosol composition is of importance for this cloud brightening, that is thereby region dependent. There is indication that absorbing aerosols to some extent counteract the cloud brightening but scene darkening with increasing aerosol burden is generally not supported, even in regions where absorbing aerosols dominate. Month-to-month cloud albedo variability also confirms the importance of liquid water content for cloud albedo. Regional, monthly mean cloud albedo is found to increase with the addition of anthropogenic aerosols and more so with sulfate than non-sulfate. Changes in cloud albedo between experiments are related to changes in cloud water content as well as droplet size distribution changes, so that models with large increases in liquid water path and/or cloud droplet number show large cloud albedo increases with increasing aerosol. However, no clear relation between model sensitivities to aerosol variations on the month-to-month scale and changes in cloud albedo due to changed aerosol burden is found.

Effects of sulfate aerosol forcing on East Asian summer monsoon for 1985–2010

AbstractWe examine the effect of anthropogenic aerosol forcing on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1.1. One control and two sensitivity model experiments were conducted in order to diagnose the separate roles played by sea surface temperature (SST) variations and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing changes in East Asia. We find that the SST variation has been a major driver for the observed weakening of the EASM, whereas the effect of the anthropogenic aerosol forcing has been opposite and has slightly intensified the EASM over the recent decades. The reinforcement of the EASM results from radiative cooling by the sulfate aerosol forcing, which decelerates the jet stream around the jet's exit region. Subsequently, the secondary circulation induced by such a change in the jet stream leads to the increase in precipitation around 18–23°N. This result indicates that the increase in anthropogenic emissions over East Asia may play a role in compensating for the weakening of the EASM caused by the SST forcing.

Effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol in China on the drought in the western-to-central US.

In recent decades, droughts have occurred in the western-to-central United States (US), significantly affecting food production, water supplies, ecosystem health, and the propagation of vector-borne diseases. Previous studies have suggested natural sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the Pacific as the main driver of precipitation deficits in the US. Here, we show that the aerosol forcing in China, which has been known to alter the regional hydrological cycle in East Asia, may also contribute to reducing the precipitation in the western-to-central US through atmospheric teleconnections across the Pacific. Our model experiments show some indications that both the SST forcing and the increase in regional sulphate forcing in China play a similar role in modulating the western-to-central US precipitation, especially its long-term variation. This result indicates that regional air quality regulations in China have important implications for hydrological cycles in East Asia, as well as in the US.