Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing Research Articles

Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth\u2019s energy imbalance

The observed trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (TEEI), a measure of the acceleration of heat uptake by the planet, is a fundamental indicator of perturbations to climate. Satellite observations (2001–2020) reveal a significant positive globally-averaged TEEI of 0.38 ± 0.24 Wm−2decade−1, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood. Using climate model simulations, we show that it is exceptionally unlikely (<1% probability) that this trend can be explained by internal variability. Instead, TEEI is achieved only upon accounting for the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing and the associated climate response. TEEI is driven by a large decrease in reflected solar radiation and a small increase in emitted infrared radiation. This is because recent changes in forcing and feedbacks are additive in the solar spectrum, while being nearly offset by each other in the infrared. We conclude that the satellite record provides clear evidence of a human-influenced climate system.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal.

Air temperature plays a major role in the growth cycle of fruit trees. Chilling and forcing are two of the main mechanisms that drive temperate fruit development, namely dormancy and active plant development. Given the strong sensitivity of these crops to air temperature and the foreseeable warming under future climates, it becomes imperative to analyze climate change impacts for fruit trees. The fruit sector in Portugal has risen significantly over the last decades, gaining increasing importance both internally and through exports. The present research assesses the impacts of climate change on the chilling and forcing for economically relevant fruit trees in Portugal, namely apples, oranges, pears, and plums. To assess temperate fruit chilling and forcing conditions, the chilling portions (CP) and growing degree-hours (GDH) were computed over Portugal, for the recent-past (1989–2005) and future (2021–2080) periods, following two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future climate data were obtained from four regional-global climate model pairs to account for model uncertainties. Bias-correction methodologies were also applied. A spatial analysis over the main regions with PDO “Protected Denomination of Origin” or PDI “Protected Geographical Indication” of origin of each fruit tree was performed. Future projections show a clear decrease in chilling for all regions and fruit types in Portugal. Nonetheless, given the current chilling values in Portugal and the relative importance of chilling accumulation for each fruit type, these changes are more significant for certain varieties of apples than for other types of fruit. Regarding forcing, the future projections highlight an increase in its values throughout the different fruit tree regions in Portugal, which should lead to earlier phenological timings. These changes may bring limitations to some of the most important Portuguese temperate fruit regions. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical to control the risk of exposure to climate change, thus warranting the future sustainability of the Portuguese fruit sector, which is currently of foremost relevance to the national food security and economy.

Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

The ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

Main processes affecting global average surface temperature

<p indent=0mm>Since the industrial revolution, the greenhouse effect caused by greenhouse gas emissions has led to an increase in the net radiative forcing on the Earth’s surface, and the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has continued to rise, accompanied by multi-time scale oscillations including inter-annual decadal and multi-decadal oscillations. Changes in GMST, which reflect the integrated response of the climate system to the combination of external radiation forcing and internal natural variables, are one of the key indicators for understanding the impact of human activities on global climate change. Previous studies have basically determined the contribution of major physical modes of the global surface temperature, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method. In addition to the above climate modes, the physical processes affecting GMST changes also include volcanic eruptions, observation data system errors and so on. Based on the above research progress and these two basic assumptions (there is no long-term changing trend due to factors such as natural variabilities, volcanic eruption events, or system error of observation equipment; a single event does not affect the remotely related structure of the main physical mode), EOF decomposition is applied to the surface temperature of ERSST v3b and HadISST v1.1 ocean observation data in this paper, so as to obtain the TR warming trend item with ENSO, PDO and AMO removed, and thus, by using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method, to break down each TR time series into components on multiple different time scales and summarize them into low frequencies, high frequency and trend items. The land and ocean data (HadCRUT.4.6) are used to compare ocean data (ERSST v3b and HadISST v1.1) results and conduct a statistical analysis on the errors introduced by EMD methods. This study found that the main physical processes affecting changes in the GMST include global warming caused by the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the cooling effects caused by aerosols, the internal variables in the global climate system, the system errors caused by changes in the observing system, data noise, and other factors that have not yet been identified. Based on ERSST V3b and HadISST v1.1 observational data, this study also analyzed and determined the impact and contribution of each factor to GMST changes. This could be a key step to identify the effects of human activities and natural variability on global climate change. There are two main conclusive contributions in this paper. One contribution was to quantify the time scale and intensity of the impact of volcanic eruptions on GMST. We estimated the impact of five major volcanic eruptions since 1950 (Agung, 1963; Merapi, 1974; St. Helens, 1980; Pinatubo, 1991; Nabro, 2011). The cumulative effects of these five major volcano events in ERSST and HadISST approximately caused global warming to slow down by 0.32−0.47 and 0.45−0.67°C, respectively. Another major contribution is to find that the TR item of GMST still has a recent global warming mitigation phenomenon after the removal of the three major climate models, that is, there are some processes in the Earth’s climate system that are different from the above three physical models, which could significantly affect the TR changes. Therefore, global warming tends to slow down (warming hiatus). In modern climate conditions, anthropogenic radiative forcing continues to increase, and the heat absorbed by the global climate system continues to increase during global warming hiatus period. That is, even if the amount of heat energy used to heat up the surface of the global surface reduced, this “reduced” amount of heat still remains in the climate system, such as the mid-deep ocean. The results further underscore the necessity for understanding the critical physical processes that lead to global warming from the perspective of the energy balance of the climate system.

Large contribution to secondary organic aerosol from isoprene cloud chemistry.

Aerosols still present the largest uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic radiative forcing. Cloud processing is potentially important for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, a major aerosol component: however, laboratory experiments fail to mimic this process under atmospherically relevant conditions. We developed a wetted-wall flow reactor to simulate aqueous-phase processing of isoprene oxidation products (iOP) in cloud droplets. We find that 50 to 70% (in moles) of iOP partition into the aqueous cloud phase, where they rapidly react with OH radicals, producing SOA with a molar yield of 0.45 after cloud droplet evaporation. Integrating our experimental results into a global model, we show that clouds effectively boost the amount of SOA. We conclude that, on a global scale, cloud processing of iOP produces 6.9 Tg of SOA per year or approximately 20% of the total biogenic SOA burden and is the main source of SOA in the mid-troposphere (4 to 6 km).

Importance of Uncertainties in the Spatial Distribution of Preindustrial Wildfires for Estimating Aerosol Radiative Forcing

AbstractUncertainty in preindustrial aerosol emissions, including fires, is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here, we quantify the range in aerosol forcing associated with uncertainty in the location and magnitude of preindustrial fire emissions in a climate model based on four emission estimates. With varied emission location and magnitude among the fire estimates, we find the change in aerosol forcing from present‐day to preindustrial is between −0.4 and 0.3 W/m2 for direct radiative forcing and between −1.8 and 0.6 W/m2 for cloud albedo forcing. Altering only the spatial distribution of preindustrial fires for a fixed magnitude adds a previously unaccounted 25% uncertainty to the total aerosol radiative forcing range. Future studies must account for the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of fire and other aerosol emissions as regional differences contribute substantial additional uncertainty to anthropogenic radiative forcing estimates and the resultant climate sensitivity.

Estimating the CMIP6 Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Effects with the Advantage of Prescribed Aerosol Forcing

The prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing recommended by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was implemented in an atmospheric model. With the reduced complexity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, each component of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) can be estimated by one or more calculation methods, especially for instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol–radiation interactions (RFari) and aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci). Simulation results show that the choice of calculation method might impact the magnitude and reliability of RFari. The RFaci—calculated by double radiation calls—is the definition-based Twomey effect, which previously was impossible to diagnose using the default model with physically based aerosol–cloud interactions. The RFari and RFaci determined from present-day simulations are very robust and can be used as offline simulation results. The robust RFari, RFaci, and corresponding radiative forcing efficiencies (i.e., the impact of environmental properties) are very useful for analyzing anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects. For instance, from 1975 to 2000, both RFari and RFaci showed a clear response to the spatial change of anthropogenic aerosol. The global average RF (RFari + RFaci) has enhanced (more negative) by ~6%, even with a slight decrease in the global average anthropogenic aerosol, and this can be explained by the spatial pattern of radiative forcing efficiency.

NO2 anomalies - Economy attribution and rapid climate response

Close to two decades of NASA Earth Observing System satellite data and algorithms refinements present unique opportunity to revisit the attributions of variability of tropospheric pollutants to economic activity, as well as pollutants contribution to the anthropogenic radiative forcing. The nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is one of the top pollutants produced by industrial and power plants and traffic. That long data record now covers events of economic variability like the recession of 2008/2009, as well as the effects of COVID-19 closures of 2019/2020. In particular, the COVID-19 lockdowns in the winter of 2019/2020 and the spring of 2020 resulted in contracting economies around the world. While numerous imageries of reduced nitrogen dioxide (NO2) appeared to be popular, few studied gave numerical assessment of how much of the anomalies is attributable to the economic slowdown. Furthermore, few studies touched on the possible climate offsets under the reduced emissions. Using principal component (PC) analysis of 16 years of NO2 monthly series data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on the Aura satellite, we show that it is the third PC (PC3) from the deseasonalized hierarchy of principal modes that is best coupled with the economic indicators. This coupling is positive, i.e. PC3 and economic indicators manifest positive covariance. However, the economic variability can explain only 40% of the information in PC3. Furthermore, this mode by itself explains only 3% of the total deseasonalized NO2 variability. We therefore conclude that, while having an unambiguous impact, the economy can be awarded at best third order of importance in the NO2 departures from the seasonal averages.Once we identified PC3 as the NO2 mode that is coupled with the economic variability, we use this mode as an indicator and look for rapid climate adjustments to that part of the NO2 variability that we are confident is coupled with the economic variability. We focus on observational data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board the NASA Aqua satellite, decompose the series of surface skin temperature and clear-sky outgoing longwave radiances (OLR) into principal components, and identify potential impacts of the NO2 PC3 on these climate variables.

Anthropogenic influence in observed regional warming trends and the implied social time of emergence

The attribution of climate change allows for the evaluation of the contribution of human drivers to observed warming. At the global and hemispheric scales, many physical and observation-based methods have shown a dominant anthropogenic signal, in contrast, regional attribution of climate change relies on physically based numerical climate models. Here we show, using state-of-the-art statistical tests, the existence of a common nonlinear trend in observed regional air surface temperatures largely imparted by anthropogenic forcing. All regions, continents and countries considered have experienced warming during the past century due to increasing anthropogenic radiative forcing. The results show that we now experience mean temperatures that would have been considered extreme values during the mid-20th century. The adaptation window has been getting shorter and is projected to markedly decrease in the next few decades. Our findings provide independent empirical evidence about the anthropogenic influence on the observed warming trend in different regions of the world.

Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1

Abstract. Quantifying forcings from anthropogenic perturbations to the Earth system (ES) is important for understanding changes in climate since the pre-industrial (PI) period. Here, we quantify and analyse a wide range of present-day (PD) anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs) with the UK's Earth System Model (ESM), UKESM1, following the protocols defined by the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) and the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In particular, quantifying ERFs that include rapid adjustments within a full ESM enables the role of various chemistry–aerosol–cloud interactions to be investigated. Global mean ERFs for the PD (year 2014) relative to the PI (year 1850) period for carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), and methane (CH4) are 1.89 ± 0.04, 0.25 ± 0.04, −0.18 ± 0.04, and 0.97 ± 0.04 W m−2, respectively. The total greenhouse gas (GHG) ERF is 2.92 ± 0.04 W m−2. UKESM1 has an aerosol ERF of −1.09 ± 0.04 W m−2. A relatively strong negative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) and a small negative instantaneous forcing from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARI) from sulfate and organic carbon (OC) are partially offset by a substantial forcing from black carbon (BC) absorption. Internal mixing and chemical interactions imply that neither the forcing from ARI nor ACI is linear, making the aerosol ERF less than the sum of the individual speciated aerosol ERFs. Ozone (O3) precursor gases consisting of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NOx), but excluding CH4, exert a positive radiative forcing due to increases in O3. However, they also lead to oxidant changes, which in turn cause an indirect aerosol ERF. The net effect is that the ERF from PD–PI changes in NOx emissions is negligible at 0.03 ± 0.04 W m−2, while the ERF from changes in VOC and CO emissions is 0.33 ± 0.04 W m−2. Together, aerosol and O3 precursors (called near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) in the context of AerChemMIP) exert an ERF of −1.03 ± 0.04 W m−2, mainly due to changes in the cloud radiative effect (CRE). There is also a negative ERF from land use change (−0.17 ± 0.04 W m−2). When adjusted from year 1850 to 1700, it is more negative than the range of previous estimates, and is most likely due to too strong an albedo response. In combination, the net anthropogenic ERF (1.76 ± 0.04 W m−2) is consistent with other estimates. By including interactions between GHGs, stratospheric and tropospheric O3, aerosols, and clouds, this work demonstrates the importance of ES interactions when quantifying ERFs. It also suggests that rapid adjustments need to include chemical as well as physical adjustments to fully account for complex ES interactions.

Ozone Variation Trends under Different CMIP6 Scenarios

This study compares and analyzes simulations of ozone under different scenarios by three CMIP6 models (IPSL-CM6A, MRI-ESM2 and CESM-WACCM). Results indicate that as the social vulnerability and anthropogenic radiative forcing is increasing, the change of total column ozone in the tropical stratosphere is not linear. Compared to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 are more favorable for the increase in stratospheric ozone mass in the tropics. Arctic ozone would never recover under the SSP1-2.6 scenario; however, the Antarctica ozone would gradually recover in all scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the trend of tropical total column ozone is mainly determined by the trend of column ozone in the tropical troposphere. Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, tropospheric ozone concentration will significantly increase; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, ozone concentration will distinctly increase in the middle and lower troposphere.

Biogenic particles formed in the Himalaya as an important source of free tropospheric aerosols

Aerosols of biogenic and anthropogenic origin affect the total radiative forcing of global climate. Poor knowledge of the pre-industrial aerosol concentration and composition, in particular of particles formed directly in the atmosphere from gaseous precursors, constitutes a large uncertainty in the anthropogenic radiative forcing. Investigations of new particle formation at pre-industrial-like conditions can contribute to the reduction of this uncertainty. Here we present observations taken at the remote Nepal Climate Observatory Pyramid station at 5,079 m above sea level, a few kilometres from the summit of Everest. We show that up-valley winds funnel gaseous aerosol precursors to higher altitudes. During this transport, these are oxidized into compounds of very low volatility, which rapidly form a large number of aerosol particles. These are then transported into the free troposphere, which suggests that the whole Himalayan region may act as an ‘aerosol factory’ and contribute substantially to the free tropospheric aerosol population. Aerosol production in this region occurs mainly via organic precursors of biogenic origin with little evidence of the involvement of anthropogenic pollutants. This process is therefore likely to be essentially unchanged since the pre-industrial period, and may have been one of the major sources that contributes to the upper tropospheric aerosol population during that time. Newly formed biogenic particles in the Himalaya increase free-tropospheric background aerosol concentration by a factor of up to two.

Beyond SOx reductions from shipping: assessing the impact of NOx and carbonaceous-particle controls on human health and climate

Historically, cargo ships have been powered by low-grade fossil fuels, which emit particles and particle-precursor vapors that impact human health and climate. We used a global chemical-transport model with online aerosol microphysics (GEOS-Chem-TOMAS) to estimate the aerosol health and climate impacts of four emission-control policies: (1) 85% reduction in sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions (Sulf); (2) 85% reduction in SOx and black carbon (BC) emissions (Sulf-BC); (3) 85% reduction in SOx, BC, and organic aerosol (OA) emissions (Sulf-BC-OA); and (4) 85% reduction in SOx, BC, OA, and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions (Sulf-BC-OA-NOx). The SOx reductions reflect the 0.5% fuel-sulfur cap implemented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on 1 January 2020. The other reductions represent realistic estimates of future emission-control policies. We estimate that these policies could reduce fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable mortalities by 13 300 (Sulf) to 38 600 (Sulf-BC-OA-NOx) mortalities per year. These changes represent 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively, of annual PM2.5-attributable mortalities from anthropogenic sources. Comparing simulations, we estimate that adding the NOx cap has the greatest health benefit. In contrast to the health benefits, all scenarios lead to a simulated climate warming tendency. The combined aerosol direct radiative effect and cloud-albedo indirect effects (AIE) are between 27 mW m−2 (Sulf) and 41 mW m−2 (Sulf-BC-OA-NOx). These changes are about 2.1% (Sulf) to 3.2% (Sulf-BC-OA-NOx) of the total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing. The emission control policies examined here yield larger relative changes in the aerosol radiative forcing (2.1%–3.2%) than in health effects (0.3%–0.8%), because most shipping emissions are distant from populated regions. Valuation of the impacts suggests that these emissions reductions could produce much larger marginal health benefits ($129–$374 billion annually) than the marginal climate costs ($12–$17 billion annually).

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P−E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P−E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P−E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P−E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P−E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

Primer on Aircraft Induced Clouds and Their Global Warming Mitigation Options

Pressure is increasing on all industrial sectors to address climate sustainability, not only for the welfare of the planet, but also to preserve the customer base and manage operating costs. The aviation industry has a unique opportunity to halve its global radiative forcing (RF) contribution by minimizing the generation of aircraft induced clouds (AIC). These anthropogenic (human-made) condensation trails create a greenhouse effect by absorbing or directing back to Earth approximately 33% of emitted outgoing thermal longwave radiation. The effect of AIC accounts for 2% of the Earth's total anthropogenic RF. The effect of reducing AIC on global warming is immediate (unlike CO2 emissions which have a 2-decade delay in affecting global warming). This paper describes the physics of AIC formation and RF to identify candidate interventions to reduce AIC RF: 1) reduce the quantity of soot generated, 2) reduce or eliminate ice crystal formation, and 3) modify RF properties of AIC. The highest utility and lowest costs is to reduce ice crystal formation by avoiding cruise flight levels in the atmospheric conditions that are conducive to AIC generation. Reducing soot through drop-in biofuels, and synthetic fuels, require significant investment to scale production. Options that require the redesign of jet engines or use of alternative fuels such as liquid natural gas and liquid hydrogen, require significant research and turn-over of the existing fleets. Fuel additives to suppress ice crystal formation, change the RF properties of ice crystals, or both, are still nascent research topics. The implications and limitations are discussed.

Black Carbon Absorption Efficiency Under Preindustrial and Present‐Day Conditions Simulated by a Size‐ and Mixing‐State‐Resolved Global Aerosol Model

AbstractThe positive radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) aerosol depends not only on the spatial and temporal distribution of BC but also its absorption efficiency. The mass absorption cross section (MAC) of BC is enhanced by atmospheric aging processes that increase particle size and non‐BC coating amounts (mixing state) of BC‐containing particles. However, the representation of MAC (or absorption enhancement) in current global aerosol models has a large uncertainty. This study used a global aerosol model that resolves particle size and mixing state to show that the MAC of anthropogenic BC has increased by 50% from preindustrial to present‐day conditions (from 5.6 to 8.6 m2 g−1) because faster present‐day aging processes increase the fraction of thickly coated BC particles, which have high absorption efficiency. This effect is apparent only when the model considers BC mixing state with sufficient resolution. The impact of this MAC enhancement on BC direct radiative forcing is estimated to be 0.051–0.086 W m−2 globally (22–37% of anthropogenic BC direct radiative forcing, 0.23 W m−2) and exceeds 0.5 W m−2 near‐source regions in East Asia. Sensitivity simulations show that BC direct radiative forcing and MAC are highly sensitive to non‐BC emissions, secondary aerosol formation, and aerosol size distribution and mixing state in emissions. We must therefore improve our understanding of these factors by further observations and reduce their discrepancies between models to achieve better estimates of BC absorption efficiency and radiative forcing.

Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw

Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.

Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition

Abstract. Radiative forcing provides an important basis for understanding and predicting global climate changes, but its quantification has historically been done independently for different forcing agents, has involved observations to varying degrees, and studies have not always included a detailed analysis of uncertainties. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis is an optimal combination of modelling and observations of atmospheric composition. It provides a unique opportunity to rely on observations to quantify the monthly and spatially resolved global distributions of radiative forcing consistently for six of the largest forcing agents: carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, aerosol–radiation interactions, and aerosol–cloud interactions. These radiative-forcing estimates account for adjustments in stratospheric temperatures but do not account for rapid adjustments in the troposphere. On a global average and over the period 2003–2017, stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing of carbon dioxide has averaged +1.89 W m−2 (5 %–95 % confidence interval: 1.50 to 2.29 W m−2) relative to 1750 and increased at a rate of 18 % per decade. The corresponding values for methane are +0.46 (0.36 to 0.56) W m−2 and 4 % per decade but with a clear acceleration since 2007. Ozone radiative-forcing averages +0.32 (0 to 0.64) W m−2, almost entirely contributed by tropospheric ozone since stratospheric ozone radiative forcing is only +0.003 W m−2. Aerosol radiative-forcing averages −1.25 (−1.98 to −0.52) W m−2, with aerosol–radiation interactions contributing −0.56 W m−2 and aerosol–cloud interactions contributing −0.69 W m−2 to the global average. Both have been relatively stable since 2003. Taking the six forcing agents together, there is no indication of a sustained slowdown or acceleration in the rate of increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing over the period. These ongoing radiative-forcing estimates will monitor the impact on the Earth's energy budget of the dramatic emission reductions towards net-zero that are needed to limit surface temperature warming to the Paris Agreement temperature targets. Indeed, such impacts should be clearly manifested in radiative forcing before being clear in the temperature record. In addition, this radiative-forcing dataset can provide the input distributions needed by researchers involved in monitoring of climate change, detection and attribution, interannual to decadal prediction, and integrated assessment modelling. The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.24380/ads.1hj3y896 (Bellouin et al., 2020b).

On the relationship between cloud water composition and cloud droplet number concentration.

Aerosol-cloud interactions are the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying anthropogenic radiative forcing. The large uncertainty is, in part, due to the difficulty of predicting cloud microphysical parameters, such as the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). Even though rigorous first-principle approaches exist to calculate Nd, the cloud and aerosol research community also relies on empirical approaches such as relating Nd to aerosol mass concentration. Here we analyze relationships between Nd and cloud water chemical composition, in addition to the effect of environmental factors on the degree of the relationships. Warm, marine, stratocumulus clouds off the California coast were sampled throughout four summer campaigns between 2011 and 2016. A total of 385 cloud water samples were collected and analyzed for 80 chemical species. Single- and multispecies log-log linear regressions were performed to predict Nd using chemical composition. Single-species regressions reveal that the species that best predicts Nd is total sulfate (). Multispecies regressions reveal that adding more species does not necessarily produce a better model, as six or more species yield regressions that are statistically insignificant. A commonality among the multispecies regressions that produce the highest correlation with Nd was that most included sulfate (either total or non-sea-salt), an ocean emissions tracer (such as sodium), and an organic tracer (such as oxalate). Binning the data according to turbulence, smoke influence, and in-cloud height allowed for examination of the effect of these environmental factors on the composition-Nd correlation. Accounting for turbulence, quantified as the standard deviation of vertical wind speed, showed that the correlation between Nd with both total sulfate and sodium increased at higher turbulence conditions, consistent with turbulence promoting the mixing between ocean surface and cloud base. Considering the influence of smoke significantly improved the correlation with Nd for two biomass burning tracer species in the study region, specifically oxalate and iron. When binning by in-cloud height, non-sea-salt sulfate and sodium correlated best with Nd at cloud top, whereas iron and oxalate correlated best with Nd at cloud base.

Hindcasting and forecasting of regional methane from coal mine emissions in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin using the online nested global regional chemistry–climate model MECO(n) (MESSy v2.53)

Abstract. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas in terms of anthropogenic radiative forcing. Since pre-industrial times, the globally averaged dry mole fraction of methane in the atmosphere has increased considerably. Emissions from coal mining are one of the primary anthropogenic methane sources. However, our knowledge about different sources and sinks of methane is still subject to great uncertainties. Comprehensive measurement campaigns and reliable chemistry–climate models, are required to fully understand the global methane budget and to further develop future climate mitigation strategies. The CoMet 1.0 campaign (May to June 2018) combined airborne in situ, as well as passive and active remote sensing measurements to quantify the emissions from coal mining in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB, Poland). Roughly 502 kt of methane is emitted from the ventilation shafts per year. In order to help with the flight planning during the campaigns, we performed 6 d forecasts using the online coupled, three-time nested global and regional chemistry–climate model MECO(n). We applied three-nested COSMO/MESSy instances going down to a spatial resolution of 2.8 km over the USCB. The nested global–regional model system allows for the separation of local emission contributions from fluctuations in the background methane. Here, we introduce the forecast set-up and assess the impact of the model's spatial resolution on the simulation of methane plumes from the ventilation shafts. Uncertainties in simulated methane mixing ratios are estimated by comparing different airborne measurements to the simulations. Results show that MECO(3) is able to simulate the observed methane plumes and the large-scale patterns (including vertically integrated values) reasonably well. Furthermore, we obtain reasonable forecast results up to forecast day four.