Anomalous Subsidence Research Articles

Process‐based assessment of an ensemble of climate projections for West Africa

AbstractDetermining the level of confidence in regional climate model projections could be very useful for designing climate change adaptation, particularly for vulnerable regions. The majority of previous research to evaluate models has been based on the mean state, but for confidence in projections the plausibility of the mechanisms for change is just as, if not more, important. In this study we demonstrate a methodology for process‐based assessment of projections, whereby circulation changes accompanying future responses are examined and then compared to atmospheric dynamics during historical years in models and reanalyses. We apply this methodology to an ensemble of five global and regional model experiments and focus on West Africa, where these models project a strong drying trend. The analysis reveals that this drying is associated with anomalous subsidence in the upper atmosphere, and large warming of the Saharan heat low region, with potential feedback effects via the African easterly jet and West African monsoon. This mode occurs during dry years in the historical period, and dominates in the future experiments. However, the same mode is not found in dry years in reanalysis data, which casts doubt on the reasons for strong drying in these models. The regional models show a very similar response to their driving global models, and are therefore no more trustworthy in this case. This result underlines the importance of assessing model credibility on a case‐by‐case basis and implies that process‐based methodologies should be applied to other model projections before their outputs are used to inform decision making.

Interdecadal Change in South China Sea Tropical Cyclone Frequency in Association with Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient

Abstract This study investigates the interdecadal changes in summertime tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the South China Sea (SCS) during 1979–2010. Based on changepoint detection algorithms and spectral analysis, two inactive TC periods (period 1: 1979–93 and period 3: 2003–10) and one active TC period (period 2: 1994–2002) have been identified, with a dominant spectral peak of approximately 9–10 yr. Correlation analysis further reveals a significant negative relationship between TC frequency and the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (ZSG) between the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the western North Pacific (WNP) at both interannual and interdecadal time scales. That is, a positive ZSG between the NIO and the WNP tends to suppress cyclogenesis over the SCS, whereas a negative ZSG is generally favorable for SCS TC formation. The negative connection between cyclogenesis and ZSG may be explained by the influences of the ZSG on atmospheric circulations as well as Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the SCS, which reveal prominent contrasts during the study periods. A positive ZSG between the tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean induces an anomalous Walker-like circulation, which results in an anomalous subsidence and boundary layer divergence over the northern SCS. This also suppresses the moisture as well as MJO activity over the SCS, leading to a significant reduction in TC frequency during inactive periods 1 and 3. In contrast, a negative ZSG induces surface westerlies and favorable environmental conditions for TCs, thereby greatly enhancing SCS cyclogenesis during period 2.

Out-of-Phase Relationship between Boreal Spring and Summer Decadal Rainfall Changes in Southern China*

Abstract A multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis for 1979–2010 shows that low-level circulation and rainfall over East Asia experienced a significant decadal shift around the mid-1990s. During boreal spring (March–May), the first principal component (PC) of the MV-EOF exhibits a marked decadal change around the mid-1990s, while during boreal summer (June–August) the second PC shows a pronounced decadal shift around the same time. It is further noted that the decadal rainfall change over southern China experienced an out-of-phase relationship between boreal spring and summer; that is, from the pre-1994 to the post-1994 period, the rainfall tends to decrease in boreal spring but increase in boreal summer. A mechanism is put forward to explain the out-of-phase decadal rainfall change over southern China between boreal spring and summer. In boreal spring, the composite differences of SST between the latter and former decadal periods indicate a La Niña–like pattern with warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific. This pattern leads the enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, which may further induce anomalous subsidence and thus negative rainfall anomalies over southern China through the local Hadley circulation. In boreal summer, dominant decadal SST warming appears in the entire tropical Indian Ocean while the negative SST anomalies in eastern Pacific are much weaker. The warm SST anomaly over the Indian Ocean leads to suppressed convection over the Maritime Continent, which, through the local Hadley cell, favors the strengthening the East Asian monsoon trough and leads to a positive rainfall anomaly over southern China.

Cenozoic tectonic subsidence in deepwater sags in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, northern South China Sea

The Cenozoic tectonic subsidence of the deepwater area in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, northern South China Sea is studied by subsidence analysis via backstripping calculations based on data of newly interpreted sequence boundaries. In the subsidence analysis local porosity–depth parameters were estimated based on well data, the paleo-water depth parameters and lithology were estimated for all grid nodes based on well data and sedimentary system maps, and ages of sequence boundaries were adjusted according to the International Chronostratigraphic Chart v2013/01. Sensitivity analysis shows that these are essential to ensure the quality of the subsidence analysis in the slope areas. Maps of tectonic subsidence rates of 18 Cenozoic sequences were constructed and spatial–temporal variations of the tectonic subsidence were discussed. The subsidence was restricted in the Baiyun and Liwan Sags before 30 Ma and extended to uplifts after 30 Ma. This indicates that the 30 Ma unconformity is the breakup unconformity that separated the syn-rift and post-rift sequences. Four substages of post-rift subsidence were identified by cyclic changes in the rate and pattern of tectonic subsidence at boundaries of 23.3 Ma, 17.2 Ma and 11.9 Ma, respectively. Anomalous post-rifting tectonic subsidence was significant and totaled to ~ 1200 m at the center of the Baiyun Sag, and punctuated by rapid subsidence and uplift events. The Baiyun Event was manifested in the study area by a short-lived uplift event in 23.9–23.3 Ma followed by a short-lived rapid subsidence in 23.3–19.8 Ma in the central study area. This localized rapid subsidence caused northward jump and anti-clockwise rotation of the shelf break. Two-order teeterboard (seesaw)-like subsidence was observed in the study area in the post-rifting stage, suggesting elastic deformations of the crust and lithosphere. • Tectonic subsidence of deepwater sags estimated via backstripping on newest data • Maps and histograms of subsidence rate for 18 Cenozoic sequences are constructed. • Results indicate that the 30 Ma unconformity is the breakup unconformity. • Cyclic anomalous post-rift subsidence of ~ 1200 m confirmed for central Baiyun Sag • Baiyun event near Oligoc./Mioc. boundary is evidenced by rapid local subsidence.

Simulated impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific: large-scale atmospheric response

The present paper uses an atmospheric general circulation model to explore large-scale atmospheric response to various El Nino-Southern Oscillation events associated with tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific. The simulated response is basically consistent with and confirms the observed results. For eastern Pacific warm (EPW) event, anomalously wet ascent occurs over the tropical central/eastern Pacific and dry descent is over the western Pacific. This Walker circulation is associated with anomalous low-level convergence, reduced vertical wind shear (VWS), and enhanced genesis potential index (GPI) in the southeast sub-region. These are consistent with the observed increase of the TC formation in the southeast sub-region but decrease in the northwest sub-region during July–September (JAS) and the increase in the southwest and northwest sub-regions during October–December (OND). In addition, the strong westerly anomalies of the TC steering flow prevail in the East Asian coast, suppressing the TC northwestward or westward tracks. For eastern Pacific cold (EPC) event, all of the simulated variables show almost a mirror image of EPW. For central Pacific warm event, the anomalous Walker circulation shifts westward because of the westward shift of the maximum SST anomaly forcing. The anomalous subsidence associated with the western branch of the Walker circulation during OND shifts northward to the South China Seas, resulting in a decrease of the TC genesis there. The TC steering flow patterns during JAS are favorable for TCs to make landfall over Japan and Korea. Compared with EPC, the descending motion in the central/eastern Pacific is much stronger for central Pacific cold (CPC) event, accompanied by more enhanced VWS and reduced GPI in the southeast sub-region. Therefore, CPC provides a more adverse environment to the TC formation there during JAS and OND, consistent with the observed decrease of TC formation there. Moreover, the easterly anomalies of the TC steering flow dominate the tropics during JAS, enhancing TC activity in the east coast of China. Additionally, the convection over the western Pacific moves to the South China Sea during OND, favoring the TC genesis there.

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

Anomalous passive subsidence of deep‐water sedimentary basins: a prearc basin example, southern New Caledonia Trough and Taranaki Basin, New Zealand

AbstractStratigraphic data from petroleum wells and seismic reflection analysis reveal two distinct episodes of subsidence in the southern New Caledonia Trough and deep‐water Taranaki Basin. Tectonic subsidence of ~2.5 km was related to Cretaceous rift faulting and post‐rift thermal subsidence, and ~1.5 km of anomalous passive tectonic subsidence occurred during Cenozoic time. Pure‐shear stretching by factors of up to 2 is estimated for the first phase of subsidence from the exponential decay of post‐rift subsidence. The second subsidence event occured ~40 Ma after rifting ceased, and was not associated with faulting in the upper crust. Eocene subsidence patterns indicate northward tilting of the basin, followed by rapid regional subsidence during the Oligocene and Early Miocene. The resulting basin is 300–500 km wide and over 2000 km long, includes part of Taranaki Basin, and is not easily explained by any classic model of lithosphere deformation or cooling. The spatial scale of the basin, paucity of Cenozoic crustal faulting, and magnitudes of subsidence suggest a regional process that acted from below, probably originating within the upper mantle. This process was likely associated with inception of nearby Australia‐Pacific plate convergence, which ultimately formed the Tonga‐Kermadec subduction zone. Our study demonstrates that shallow‐water environments persisted for longer and their associated sedimentary sequences are hence thicker than would be predicted by any rift basin model that produces such large values of subsidence and an equivalent water depth. We suggest that convective processes within the upper mantle can influence the sedimentary facies distribution and thermal architecture of deep‐water basins, and that not all deep‐water basins are simply the evolved products of the same processes that produce shallow‐water sedimentary basins. This may be particularly true during the inception of subduction zones, and we suggest the term ‘prearc’ basin to describe this tectonic setting.

Formation of intracratonic basins by lithospheric shortening and phase changes: a case study from the ultra‐deep East Barents Sea basin

AbstractThe origin of large subsidence in intracratonic basins is still under debate. We propose a new and self‐consistent model for the formation of those basins, where lithospheric shortening/buckling triggers metamorphism and densification of crustal mafic heterogeneities. We use a forward thermo‐mechanical finite element technique to evaluate this mechanism for the typical example of the East Barents Sea basin (EBB) where a very large and compensated subsidence, accommodating an up to 20‐km‐thick sediment succession, is observed. The lower crust in the dynamic model is modelled with petrologic‐consistent densities for a wet mafic gabbroic composition that depend on pressure and temperature taking into account dehydration at high PT conditions. The model successfully explains the main characteristics of the EBB, notably the large anomalous and fast subsidence during the Late Permian–Early Triassic, its present‐day geometry and the absence of a significant gravity anomaly.

A review of observations and models of dynamic topography

The topography of Earth is primarily controlled by lateral differences in the density structure of the crust and lithosphere. In addition to this isostatic topography, flow in the mantle induces deformation of its surface leading to dynamic topography. This transient deformation evolves over tens of millions of years, occurs at long wavelength, and is relatively small ( 5000 km), we show that there is good agreement between published residual topography fields, including the one described here, and present-day dynamic topography predicted from mantle flow models, including a new one. Residual and predicted fields show peak-to-peak amplitudes of roughly ±2 km and a dominant degree two pattern with high values for the Pacific Ocean, southern Africa, and the North Atlantic and low values for South America, western North America, and Eurasia. The flooding of continental interiors has long been known to require both larger amplitudes and to be temporally phase-shifted compared with inferred eustatic changes. Such long-wavelength inferred vertical motions have been attributed to dynamic topography. An important consequence of dynamic topography is that long-term global sea-level change cannot be estimated at a single passive margin. As a case study, we compare the results of three published models and of our model to the subsidence history of well COST-B2 offshore New Jersey. The <400 ± 45 m amount of anomalous subsidence of this well since 85 Ma is best explained by models that predict dynamic subsidence of the New Jersey margin during that period. Explicitly including the lithosphere in future global mantle flow models should not only facilitate such comparisons between model results and data, but also further constrain the nature of the coupling between the mantle and the lithosphere.

Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios

We study climate change projections over East Asia under various representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios using simulations performed with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_ CSM1.1) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Under all RCPs (including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), East Asian climate is found to be warmer and wetter in the 21st century than the present climatology (19862005). For 20802099, East Asian mean surface air temperature (precipitation) is higher than that for the present climatology by 0.98° C (4.4%) under RCP2.6, 1.89° C (7.7%) under RCP4.5, 2.47° C (7.1%) under RCP6.0, and 4.06° C (9.1%) under RCP8.5. Such changes in East Asia are all larger than the corresponding global changes, with greater differences under the higher RCPs. In the simulation of RCP4.5, which is extended to the late 23rd century (22802299), further warming of 0.34° C relative to 20802099 is found in East Asia; this is lower than the global mean warming (0.56° C). Under mitigation scenario RCP2.6, East Asia experiences greater cooling than that experienced globally throughout the 22nd and 23rd centuries. In the late 21st century, East Asian summer mean precipitation increases prominently (by 1015%) with respect to the present climatology under all RCPs. This increase in precipitation occurs primarily in southern China and northern East Asia and is associated with anomalous southerly flow in the lower troposphere. Drought occurs in the Yangtze River valley for the middle and high RCPs; we attribute this to anomalous subsidence around 30° N associated with the northward shift of the East Asian jet stream. Under the high scenario (RCP8.5), the western Pacific subtropical high extends westward and northward to southern China and is partly responsible for the deficient precipitation in regions to the south of the Yangtze River.

Links between Indo-Pacific climate variability and drought in the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas

Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877–2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June–August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the MADA, provide a useful tool for assessing long-term changes in the characteristics of Asian monsoon droughts in the context of Indo-Pacific climate variability.

Simulated Local and Remote Biophysical Effects of Afforestation over the Southeast United States in Boreal Summer*

Abstract Afforestation has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy by sequestrating atmospheric carbon dioxide. With the goal of increasing carbon sequestration, a Congressional project has been planned to afforest about 18 million acres by 2020 in the Southeast United States (SEUS), the Great Lake states, and the Corn Belt states. However, biophysical feedbacks of afforestation have the potential to counter the beneficial climatic consequences of carbon sequestration. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation over the SEUS, the authors designed a set of initial value ensemble experiments and long-term quasi-equilibrium experiments in a fully coupled Community Climate System Model, version 3.5 (CCSM3.5). Model results show that afforestation over the SEUS not only has a local cooling effect in boreal summer [June–August (JJA)] at short and long time scales but also induces remote warming over adjacent regions of the SEUS at long time scales. Precipitation, in response to afforestation, increases over the SEUS (local effect) and decreases over adjacent regions (remote effect) in JJA. The local surface cooling and increase in precipitation over SEUS in JJA are hydrologically driven by the changes in evapotranspiration and latent heat flux. The remote surface warming and decrease in precipitation over adjacent regions are adiabatically induced by anomalous subsidence. Our results suggest that the planned afforestation efforts should be developed carefully by taking account of short-term (local) and long-term (remote) biophysical effects of afforestation.

Extreme drought event of 2009/2010 over southwestern China

The extreme drought of 2009/2010 over southwestern China is the driest event with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days during winter season (October–February) in the past 50 years, and also the severest one with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly at the same period since 1880. The drought domain is characterized with anomalous warming and drying in the mid-lower troposphere as well as an evident anomalous subsidence. The favorable circulation anomalies for this drought are associated with the following two factors. One is the strongest negative-phase Arctic Oscillation during 2009/2010 winter that accompanies with a weakened Middle East Jet Stream (MEJS), the cyclonic anomaly over Arabian Sea (AS), the anticyclonic anomaly over Tibet and the cyclonic anomaly over Lake Baikal. The weakened MEJS, the AS cyclonic anomaly and the Tibet anticyclonic anomaly weaken the Southern Branch Trough (SBT) that directly decreases the moisture transport toward the southwestern China; the cyclonic anomaly over the Lake Baikal causes a deepened and westward shifted East Asian Major Trough (EAT) so that dry cold air behind the EAT easily invades down to southwestern China. The AS cyclonic anomaly favors the westward extension of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). The westward extension of WPSH is also associated with the second factor that is the El Nino Modoki event during 2009/2010 autumn–winter. The intensification and westward extension of WPSH enhance the local subsidence, weaken the SBT and exacerbate this drought.

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

Abstract The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.

Interannual relationships between the tropical sea surface temperature and summertime subtropical anticyclone over the western North Pacific

[1] The interannual variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) in boreal summer is investigated with the use of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data. The most significant change of the 500 hPa geopotential height field appears at the western edge of the WNPSH, with dominant 2–3 year and 3–5 year power spectrum peaks. The 2–3 year oscillation of the WNPSH and associated circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns possess a coherent eastward propagating feature, with a warm SST anomaly (SSTA) and anomalous ascending motion migrating from the tropical Indian Ocean in the preceding autumn to the maritime continent in the concurrent summer of a strong WNPSH. A strong WNPSH is characterized by anomalous anticyclonic circulation and maximum subsidence in the western North Pacific (WNP). The anomalous WNPSH circulation has an equivalent barotropic vertical structure and resides in the sinking branch of the local Hadley circulation, triggered by enhanced convection over the maritime continent. A heat budget analysis reveals that the WNPSH is maintained by radiative cooling. The 3–5 year oscillation of the WNPSH exhibits a quasi-stationary feature, with a warm SSTA (anomalous ascending motion) located in the equatorial central eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean and a cold SSTA (anomalous descending motion) located in the western Pacific. The anomaly pattern persists from the preceding winter to the concurrent summer of a high WNPSH. The greatest descent is located to the southeast of the anomalous anticyclone center, where a baroclinic vertical structure is identified. The zonal phase difference and the baroclinic vertical structure suggest that the anomalous anticyclone on this timescale is a Rossby wave response to a negative latent heating associated with the persistent local cold SSTA. ECHAM4 model experiments further confirm that the 2–3 year mode is driven by the SSTA forcing over the maritime continent, while the 3–5 year mode is driven by the local SSTA in the WNP.

Numerical modeling of the anomalous post-rift subsidence in the Baiyun Sag, Pearl River Mouth Basin

The Baiyun Sag is the deepest sag in the Pearl River Mouth Basin in northern continental margin of South China Sea, with the maximum sediment thickness over 12.5 km above the basement including >6.5 km sediments above the 30 Ma breakup unconformity. According to the theoretical models for the rifted basins, the post-rift subsidence is driven solely by the thermal contraction and can be calculated as the function of the lithospheric stretching factor. A method combining the forward modeling and reverse backstripping was designed to estimate lithospheric stretching factor. Using the 2D forward modeling based on the flexural cantilever model, we simulated the multi-rifting process of the Baiyun Sag with constrain of the backstripped profiles. By doing this the lithospheric stretching factor was obtained, and then the theoretical post-rift subsidence was calculated. The calculated theoretical subsidence was much smaller than the observed subsidence given by backstripping. Along the 1530 line in the Baiyun Sag, the anomalous post-rift subsidence is over 2 km in the sag center, and varies slightly to the north and south edges of the sag. This suggests that the anomalous post-rift subsidence continues beyond the sag both in the continental shelf to the north and in the continental slope to the south. The sensitivity tests in the forward modeling process indicate that only the use of low-angle faults (⩽13°) can we simulate the shape of the backstripped profile.

Sea surface temperature east of Australia: A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation data. The WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of Australia. When the spring SST is in the positive phase, a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October, concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind shear. These conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis, and thus WNPTCF decreases. The negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. The spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train, and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

Regional‐scale convection patterns during strong and weak phases of the Saharan heat low

AbstractThe West African heat low, which is defined as a thermal depression generally below 700 hPa over West Africa, is stationary over the Sahara during the summer season and is often referred to as the Saharan heat low (SHL). This SHL displays synoptic and intra‐seasonal pulsations of its intensity on time scales under 60 days.In this study, we analyse the regional‐scale pattern of low troposphere dynamics and convective activity associated with weak and strong phases of the SHL during the summer, using 18 years (1984–2001) of concomitant European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts re‐analysis data and satellite observations of brightness temperature provided by the European Union‐funded Cloud Archive User Service. Strong SHL phases, defined by an increase of low‐level atmospheric thickness, are accompanied by (1) a positive anomaly of temperature in the low layers, (2) a strengthening of the monsoon flow, (3) both a negative anomaly of the divergence flux and an enhancement of the moisture advection over the central Sahel, (4) an intensification of the African easterly jet and (5) enhanced upward vertical motions located south of the inter‐tropical discontinuity (ITD). These conditions appear to be favourable for the occurrence of convection over the central Sahel. The strongest, most widespread convective activity over the central and eastern Sahel occurs on the day when the SHL intensity is the strongest. In contrast, a significant decrease of the convective activity was detected over Senegal and to the West of the Jos Plateau.Opposite patterns are found during weak SHL phases, with a negative anomaly of convection over the central and eastern Sahel connected with anomalous subsidence south of the ITD and a negative moisture advection anomaly. Conversely, convection is seen to be enhanced along the Atlantic coast and particularly over Senegal. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Inferring mantle properties with an evolving dynamic model of the Antarctica‐New Zealand region from the Late Cretaceous

We show that time‐dependent models of mantle upwellings above a cold downwelling in the New Zealand‐Antarctica region since 80 Ma can explain anomalous geophysical observations: ∼1.0 km of positive residual bathymetry at the Antarctica margin, a large Ross Sea geoid low, 0.5–0.9 km of excess tectonic subsidence of the Campbell Plateau since 80 Ma, and several seismic wave speed anomalies. Model results indicate that the largest mantle upwelling, centered in the Ross Sea, has an average temperature anomaly of 200°C and density anomaly of 0.6%, and it rose from midmantle depths at 80 Ma to a present depth of 400–1000 km. Anomalous Campbell Plateau subsidence requires a smaller hot anomaly evolving within the upper mantle under the region of the reconstructed Late Cretaceous Campbell Plateau. The excess subsidence of the plateau results from northward drift of New Zealand away from the dynamic topography high created by the smaller hot anomaly. To fit present‐day geoid and residual topography observations, we require a large lower:upper mantle viscosity ratio of 100:1. We suggest that the distribution of temperature and viscosity is related to long‐lived Gondwana subduction that accumulated high‐density, high‐viscosity lower mantle below a chemically altered upper mantle with anomalously low density and/or high temperature. Time‐dependent observations enable constraints on absolute viscosities of 1023 Pa s and 1021 Pa s for the lower and upper mantle, respectively.

The Physical Mechanisms by Which the Leading Patterns of SST Variability Impact U.S. Precipitation

Abstract This study uses the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) AGCM to investigate the physical mechanisms by which the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability impact U.S. precipitation. The focus is on a cold Pacific pattern and a warm Atlantic pattern that exert significant drought conditions over the U.S. continent. The precipitation response to the cold Pacific is characterized by persistent deficits over the Great Plains that peak in summer with a secondary peak in spring, and weakly pluvial conditions in summer over the Southeast (SE). The precipitation response to the warm Atlantic is dominated by persistent deficits over the Great Plains with the maximum deficit occurring in late summer. The precipitation response to the warm Atlantic is overall similar to the response to the cold Pacific with, however, considerably weaker amplitude. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget combined with a stationary wave model diagnosis of the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies is conducted to investigate mechanisms of the precipitation responses. A key result is that, while the cold Pacific and warm Atlantic are two spatially distinct SST patterns, they nevertheless produce similar diabatic heating anomalies over the Gulf of Mexico during the warm season. In the case of the Atlantic forcing, the heating anomalies are a direct response to the SST anomalies, whereas in the case of Pacific forcing they are a secondary response to circulation anomalies forced from the tropical Pacific. The diabatic heating anomalies in both cases force an anomalous low-level cyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico that leads to reduced moisture transport into the central United States and increased moisture transport into the eastern United States. The precipitation deficits over the Great Plains in both cases are greatly amplified by the strong soil moisture feedback in the NSIPP-1 AGCM. In contrast, the response over the SE to the cold Pacific during spring is primarily associated with an upper-tropospheric high anomaly over the southern United States that is remotely forced by tropical Pacific diabatic heating anomalies, leading to greatly reduced stationary moisture flux convergences and anomalous subsidence in that region. Moderately reduced evaporation and weakened transient moisture flux convergences play secondary roles. It is only during spring that these three terms are all negative and constructively contribute to produce the maximum dry response in spring. The above findings based on the NSIPP-1 AGCM are generally consistent with observations, as well as with four other AGCMs included in the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project.