Height Anomalies Research Articles

Variability of Winter Frosts in Central South America: Quantifying Mechanisms with Decision Trees

Agricultural production in Central South America (CSA) is substantially influenced by frost events. This study characterises and quantifies the physical processes leading to frost conditions in CSA from 1979 to 2022, focusing on three innovative aspects: regional frost properties, a novel multi-parametric upper-level jet description, and the quantification of underlying mechanisms through decision trees (DTs). The regionalisation analysis identifies five homogeneous frost regions in CSA. In all regions, the events tend to occur more frequently during the La Niña phase. Moreover, a significant increase in the frequency of widespread frost events has been observed in the Argentinean Pampas during the study period, primarily due to negative trends in minimum temperatures. Furthermore, the synoptic mechanisms triggering frosts, such as cold fronts and post-frontal anticyclones enhanced by subsidence near the subtropical jet (STJ) entrance, have not shown major long-term changes. To describe the jets, we compute six parameters for the STJ and seven for the polar front jet, including latitude, intensity, height, tilting, longitudinal extent, and branch number. DTs are used to identify key jet parameters linked to frost events, such as the latitude, longitudinal extent, and tilt of the Atlantic STJ. Frost likelihood increases when the STJ is north of 31°S, and the extension of the Atlantic STJ is longer than 35° and has a negative tilt. Finally, DTs focused on the onset and end of events highlight geopotential height anomalies and STJ extension as critical variables. These DTs provide concise and accessible information for agricultural decision-makers in CSA.

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

Unprecedented monsoon precipitation over southwest Pakistan in 2022: Regional processes in moistening the climatological heat low

AbstractDuring the 2022 Asian summer monsoon, the climatological driest parts of Sindh and Balochistan provinces in southwestern Pakistan and the northern Arabian Sea (regions of climatological heat low, HLOW) experienced unprecedented precipitation (>500% of the normal) whereas precipitation was reduced from the Indo‐Gangetic Plain to the tropical western Pacific. Our working hypothesis is that the weakened large‐scale monsoon is a direct response to tropical sea‐surface temperature: wave responses that develop in response to changes in diabatic heating anomalies over the regional precipitation centers within the Asian monsoon intensify and transition HLOW into an anomalous moist low. To validate the hypothesis, process‐oriented diagnostics are applied to European Centre of Medium‐range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and numerical experiments are performed with a linear atmospheric general circulation model. Model solutions confirm that the weakened large‐scale monsoon, essentially a linear response, is determined by persistent warm sea‐surface temperature and enhanced precipitation anomalies over the equatorial and southeastern Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent, and Rossby waves emanating from there, and from continental India, deepen the HLOW. Concomitantly, as a Rossby wave response to negative precipitation anomalies over the northern Bay of Bengal and Indochina during June, and their poleward migration during July–August, positive height anomalies develop and intensify over northern India. The resultant horizontal pressure gradient between HLOW and northern India drives concentrated low‐level wind anomalies that are efficient in advecting the strongest climatological moisture gradient to precondition the lower troposphere during June, and in determining the unprecedented precipitation during July–August when the seasonal cycle prevails over HLOW. Model sensitivity to horizontal moisture advection confirms ERA5 diagnostics. Nearly identical tropical forcing and large‐scale weakened monsoon responses are observed during 2010 and 2020. In these years, diagnostics identify subtle changes in latitudinal position of negative precipitation anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and Indo‐Gangetic Plain that lead to lesser contribution by horizontal moisture advection, resulting in weaker positive precipitation anomalies over southwest Pakistan.

Influences of Stratospheric Arctic Vortex on Surface Air Temperature Over Asia

AbstractThe influence of northern polar vortex in the stratosphere (SPV) in December‐January on Asia's surface air temperature (SAT) in February has been examined using reanalysis data sets and a barotropic model. An out‐of‐phase interannual linkage between the SPV in December‐January and SAT in February during 1979–2022 has been observed, that is, a strong (weak) SPV corresponds to a cooling (warming) over Asia. Approximately 25% of the SAT over Asia in February can be explained by the SPV in December‐January. This relationship between the SPV and SAT is independent of the Arctic Oscillation. The influence of the SPV on SAT over Asia cannot be solely explained by radiative processes, but is instead related to circulation anomalies in the troposphere. A stronger SPV tends to result in negative geopotential height anomalies with cyclonic circulation over Asia. The SPV‐related geopotential height over Asia is accompanied by a weakened teleconnection pattern between the North Atlantic and Asia, with three centers from the northeastern Atlantic‐eastern Europe‐Asia, and fewer stationary waves propagated from North Atlantic into Asia. These anomalous circulation patterns and anomalous northerly wind over Central Asia in February are beneficial to the colder air transportation from the higher latitudes to Asia, facilitating a surface cooling over Asia. Our results shed light on the interannual linkage between SPV and SAT over Asia, suggesting that the SPV in December‐January could be considered as a new predicator of SAT in February over Asia.

Antarctic Warm Extremes Across Seasons and Their Response to Advection

AbstractAntarctic warm extremes impact the cryosphere, with very warm extremes driving surface melt on ice shelves. Here, we analyze temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile and the associated circulation patterns and radiation anomalies. ERA5 reanalysis data show positive geopotential height anomalies related to the occurrence of warm extremes. The highest temperature during warm extremes appears on the western periphery of high‐pressure systems, consistent with anticyclonic advection. Temperature anomalies during warm extremes are strongest in winter due to the transport of warm and moist air and a strong meridional temperature gradient. In summer, the weak meridional gradients of top‐of‐atmosphere downward solar radiation flux and surface air temperature contribute to weak temperature anomalies. Warm extremes are associated with positive longwave radiation anomalies in all seasons, but with negative shortwave radiation anomalies at the surface except during polar night. These relationships are verified by station observations. Our results confirm that Antarctic warm extremes are mostly driven by meridional advection of warm air, and suggest that these warm air masses are predominantly moist and cloudy.

Influences on North‐Atlantic summer climate from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

AbstractSeasonal‐range predictability of summer climate in northwestern Europe is generally considered to be low. This is an increasing issue given the worsening impact of summer heatwaves, droughts and intense convective rainfall in a rapidly changing climate. In wintertime, predictive skill in the region is derived from a variety of sources, not least teleconnections with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Summer ENSO teleconnections, however, are often considered to be negligible. In this paper, we revisit the topic of summer teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic‐European region. We build on previous work identifying upper tropospheric responses to tropical forcing, since dynamical teleconnections are most apparent at this level. Our results confirm that significantly increased geopotential heights are found stretching over the North‐Atlantic region and into western Europe when La Niña conditions are prevalent during summer. This pattern is part of the previously identified ‘circumglobal’ pattern of wider northern‐hemisphere height changes. We then look for these responses in a range of climate models used in operational seasonal prediction. While parts of the circumglobal pattern are weakly present, none of them produce the response seen over the North Atlantic, even when the effect of sampling on the observed teleconnection is accounted for. We additionally estimate the contribution of the previous (wintertime) phase of ENSO on the following summer. We find a significant delayed response, particularly in heights, to the earlier phase. The combination of the delayed and current responses gives height anomalies that are larger, on average, when ENSO changes phase from winter to summer. Finally, we show that a modest level of regional prediction skill from ENSO does exist. There is a contribution to skill in heights from the previous ENSO phase, but the equivalent contribution to the skill of zonal winds is smaller.

Subseasonal variability of sea level pressure and its influence on snowpack over mid-high-latitude Eurasia during boreal winter

The atmospheric circulation significantly influences the snowpack over mid-high-latitude Eurasia. This study examines the characteristics of the leading subseasonal variability mode of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) with 20-80-day period and its relationship with snowpack over mid-high-latitude Eurasia, using the fifth generation of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) data and different snowpack datasets. The SLP leading mode, characterized by a monopole pattern with a strong surface anomalous high centered near the Ural Mountains, exhibits a barotropic structure and extends from the surface to the tropopause. Above SLP and geopotential height anomalies propagate southeastward from the Barents-Kara Sea to East Asia. This leading SLP mode contributes to surface air temperature (SAT) and snowfall circulation anomalies over mid-high-latitude Eurasia. The latter two both directly influence on snowpack anomalies in situ. Over high latitude region, snowfall circulation anomaly is the dominant factor to control the snow depth anomaly. Over middle latitude region, both SAT and snowfall circulation anomalies lead to the snowpack anomaly. Furthermore, the response of snow depth to the leading subseaonal SLP mode occurs 2–5 days earlier than the response of snow cover to the same mode over middle latitude region. In addition, it is suggested that the Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) and Polar/Eurasia (PEU) pattern may contribute to the development of the leading SLP mode and subsequently influence snowpack anomalies.

Impact of the East Asian subtropical jet on summer precipitation in China and its response to Atlantic sea surface temperature

AbstractERA5 reanalysis data, precipitation data from China, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data are used to analyse the impact of the meridional position of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) on summer precipitation in China and its correlation with Atlantic SST. The results indicate that when the EASJ significantly shifts northward, the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) weakens with an eastward displacement. Upper‐level convergence and moisture divergence, corresponding to descending motion, lead to decreased precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Meanwhile, upper‐level divergence occurs over South China (SC), the Hexi Corridor (HC), and Northeast China (NEC), where moisture converges and ascends, favouring an increase in precipitation. Conversely, when the EASJ undergoes a significant southward shift, the WNPSH strengthens and expands westward. Opposing atmospheric circulation patterns in these four regions result in reversed precipitation anomalies compared with those observed when the jet shifts northward. The meridional position of the EASJ is closely related to the summer subtropical Atlantic SST. The positive (negative) SST anomaly (SSTA) over the subtropical Atlantic induces negative (positive) geopotential height anomaly in the upper troposphere over the North Atlantic by modulating the atmospheric meridional circulation. Geopotential height anomalies trigger eastward‐propagating Rossby waves, generating anomalous cyclones and anticyclones over East Asia. These anomalous cyclones and anticyclones lead to zonal wind anomalies, which alter the strength of the westerlies on both sides of the climatological jet axis, thereby changing the jet's meridional position. Additionally, the difference in the propagation direction of wave activity flux between positive and negative SSTA alters the distribution of wave energy convergence and divergence in the EASJ region, further affecting the intensity of the average westerly winds on both sides of the climatological jet axis, ultimately producing the changes in the meridional position of the EASJ.

Summer Heatwaves in Southeastern Australia

AbstractHeatwaves in southeastern Australia have characteristic weather patterns that are well understood but are outnumbered by days with similar synoptic‐scale patterns that are not heatwaves. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to identify the key differences between heatwave and non‐heatwave days from 40 years of reanalysis data. A synoptic climatology of seven weather states was constructed by ‐means cluster analysis. Four of these states account for more than 80% of heatwave days across south‐and‐central eastern Australia. Moreover, the spatial maxima in the frequency of the heatwave days are distinct and geographically separated. Heatwave days have a stronger upper anticyclone or ridge that has propagated further equatorward in comparison with non‐heatwave days. The air upstream of the ridge is more humid on heatwave days, whereas downstream of the ridge the air is much drier. These dry anomalies are co‐located with midtropospheric subsidence and the moist anomalies with ascent, and their respective spatial distributions are consistent with regions of adiabatic warming and latent heating identified in recent studies of southeast Australian heatwaves. The corresponding vertical motion on non‐heatwave days is weaker and shifted further poleward. Southeast Queensland heatwave days exhibit increased baroclinicity over the Australian Subtropics and reduced rainfall over Queensland. Further south and west, heatwave days are associated with more amplified Rossby waves and increased rainfall over the Australian Tropics. Anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking is greatly enhanced on heatwave days south of 30°S. For every day in each of these four weather states, the 3‐day‐mean maximum temperature in the region of peak heatwave day frequency is positively correlated with 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies on the equatorward flank of the cluster‐mean upper ridge. These findings underline the importance of equatorward Rossby wave propagation in the dynamics of southeast Australian heatwaves.

Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response?

AbstractWe investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagnosing the NMME forecasts of DJF 2023/24 for SSTs and 200‐hPa heights initialized at the beginning of November 2023 relative to other ensemble mean NMME DJF forecasts dating back to 1982. The results demonstrate that forecasts of the 200‐hPa height anomalies had a large contribution from warming trends in global SSTs. It is the combination of trends and the expected El Niño teleconnection that results in the forecast height anomalies. Increasingly, for forecasts of geopotential height anomalies during the recent El Niño winters, the amplitude of trends is nearly equal to the signal from El Niño and has implications for the climatological base period selection for seasonal forecasts.

Projections of compound wet-warm and dry-warm extreme events in summer over China

Accurate climate projections are essential in China. A quantile delta-mapped spatial disaggregation (QDMSD) has been developed to simulate compound extreme dry-warm (CDDW) and wet-warm (CDWW) events in historical and future summertime. Simulations indicated that the frequencies of CDDW would keep an obvious increase in the historical period. The Niño 3 and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indirectly regulate compound extreme events by regulating sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western Pacific. In the future period, the growth of compound extremes under SSP5-8.5 surpasses that under SSP2-4.5. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the projected changes in compound extremes may be influenced by SSTA in the northwest Pacific. At 850 hPa, the SSTA may cause a weakening of the geopotential height (GHT) anomalies. The rising of warm-humid air would be hindered by the positive GHT anomalies over Siberia and a weakening of negative GHT anomalies over northwestern Pacific. It is difficult to form precipitation in northwestern China. Therefore, the CDDW will be distributed in northwest China. The correlation between compound extremes and the SSTA in the northwest Pacific will increase under SSP5-8.5. The negative GHT anomalies may occur in the northwest Pacific. Additionally, the positive GHT anomalies will weaken over Siberia. These factors may enhance the upward movement of warm-humid air and moisture convergence, thereby leading to the formation of precipitation. Finally, it would promote the occurrence of CDWW in northeastern, eastern and northern China. These findings are beneficial for policymakers in addressing the risks posed by summertime compound extremes across multiple sectors.

Exploring Long-Term Persistence in Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Parameters via Detrended Cross-Correlation Approach

Long-term cross-correlational structures are examined for pairs of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and advective forcing parameters and sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) and current velocity anomalies (CVAs) in the East/Japan Sea (EJS); all these satellite datasets were collected between 1993 and 2023. By utilizing newly modified detrended cross-correlation analysis algorithms, incorporating local linear trend and local fluctuation level of an SSTA, the analyses were performed on timescales of 400–3000 days. Long-term cross-correlations between SSTAs and SSHAs are strongly persistent over nearly the entire EJS; the strength of persistence is stronger during rising trends and low fluctuations of SSTAs, while anti-persistent behavior appears during high fluctuations of SSTAs. SSTA-CVA pairs show high long-term persistence only along main current pathways: the zonal currents for the Subpolar Front and the meridional currents for the east coast of Korea. SSTA-CVA pairs also show negative long-term persistent behaviors in some spots located near the coasts of Korea and Japan: the zonal currents for the eastern coast of Korea and the meridional currents for the western coast of Japan; these behaviors seem to be related to the coastal upwelling phenomena. Further, these persistent characteristics are more conspicuous in the recent decades (2008~2023) rather than in the past (1993~2008).

Variations in the Central Mode Water in the North Pacific as a manifestation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The North Pacific Central Mode Water (CMW) is examined from the viewpoint of its volume variations. The volume of the CMW layers thicker than 150m\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$150 m$$\\end{document} is used as an index of CMW variations, which successfully represents the year-to-year and decadal variations in the CMW volume. The CMW index shows the variation close to that of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The CMW variation is strongly tied with large-scale, dominant variations in sea surface temperature (SST), surface dynamic height (SDH), and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in the North Pacific, with a significant correlation with the PDO. Year-to-year and decadal variations of CMW volume in May to July are significantly correlated with the wintertime Aleutian Low and 500hPa\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$hPa$$\\end{document} geopotential height variations, which indicates that the Aleutian Low induces the eastward extension/retreat of the strong winter westerlies and resultant net surface heat flux anomaly over the CMW distribution region. Thus, the CMW volume variation can be regarded as a significant manifestation of the PDO. The SST, SDH, and SSH anomalies are associated with the surface cooling in the northern sector of the CMW distribution region. On the other hand, the SDH and SSH anomalies throughout a year and the SST anomaly in the cold season in the southeastern sector of the CMW region are formed due to the heaving of isopycnal surfaces in the subsurface layer above the CMW in response to its volume variations.

Modulation of U.S. tornado activity by year-round North American weather regimes

Abstract Here we examine the relation between U.S. tornado activity and a new year-round classification of North American weather regimes. The regime classification is based on 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies and classifies each day as Pacific Trough, Pacific Ridge, Alaskan Ridge, Greenland High, or No Regime. During the period 1979–2022, we find statistically significant relations between average tornado report numbers and weather regimes in all months except June–August. Tornado activity is enhanced on Pacific Ridge days during late winter and spring, reduced on Pacific Trough days in spring, and reduced on Alaskan Ridge and Greenland High days during fall and early winter. During active regimes, the probability of many tornadoes occurring also increases, and there is greater variability in the number of tornadoes reported each day. A reanalysis-based tornado index reproduces the regional features of the modulation of tornado activity by the weather regimes and attributes them to changes in storm relative helicity, convective available potential energy, and convective precipitation. The phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also plays a role. In winter and spring, Pacific Ridge days occur more often and average more reports per day during cool ENSO conditions. During warm ENSO conditions, Pacific Trough days occur more often and are associated with widespread reduced tornado activity.

Evaporation Duct Anomalies Caused by Mesoscale Eddies in the Kuroshio Extension

AbstractEvaporation duct anomalies are always present above various oceanic processes, and their response to ubiquitous mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region is quantitatively analyzed for the first time in this study using a synthetic analysis method based on reanalysis data sets and eddy trajectory data sets. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of evaporation duct anomalies is characterized by a monopole pattern, mainly modulated by the amplitude of anticyclonic eddies (AEs) and by the radius of cyclonic eddies (CEs). For AEs, the coupling strength is 0.7 m (2.9 M) per meter increase in amplitude, while for CEs, the coupling strength is 0.2 m (0.6 M) per 100 km increase in radius for the average evaporation duct height anomalies (evaporation duct strength anomalies) within the radius range. The modulation of evaporation duct anomalies by eddies is further examined.

A Transmitted Subseasonal Mode of the Winter Surface Air Temperature in the Mid‐ and High‐Latitudes of the Eurasia and Contributions From the North Atlantic and Arctic Regions

AbstractA significant and striking seesaw pattern of winter surface air temperature (SAT) has emerged, featuring pronounced warming Arctic and cooling Eurasian (referred to as WACE). This study investigates the subseasonal SAT modes across the mid‐ and high‐latitudes of Eurasia and their possible mechanisms based on daily reanalysis data from 1979 to 2022. Our results reveal that Eurasian winter SAT exhibits two distinct subseasonal modes, characterized by a correlated southeastward propagation of temperature and geopotential height anomalies (GHAs) in the middle and lower troposphere. Notably, the subseasonal SAT anomalies with eight phases constrained by the hydrostatic equilibrium, originate from the GHAs in the Arctic stratosphere and then transfer to the East Asia. The sixth phase of the transmitted subseasonal SAT mode is proved to be the key transition phase from the WACE pattern to its counterpart. Further analysis indicates that the strength of the transmitted subseasonal SAT mode is controlled by the tripolar sea surface turbulent heat flux anomalies over the north Atlantic.

A Direct Approach for Local Quasi-Geoid Modeling Based on Spherical Radial Basis Functions Using a Noisy Satellite-Only Global Gravity Field Model

A Direct Approach for Local Quasi-Geoid Modeling Based on Spherical Radial Basis Functions Using a Noisy Satellite-Only Global Gravity Field Model

Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has displayed a propensity for persistent blocking ridges and anticyclonic conditions, particularly during recent summertime extreme weather events. This study investigates atmospheric blocking patterns over the AP through historical (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100, SSP5–8.5) periods using ERA5 reanalysis and six CMIP6 models, including multi-member realizations from two models totaling ten simulations. We focus particularly on 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) and near-surface air temperature (T2m) anomalies. The historical analysis highlights significant differences between the CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis, especially in the austral winter, with EC-Earth3 and INM-CM4 models matching closest with the ERA5. Future projections show that while the northern AP and the Drake Passage largely do not exhibit a clear trend towards increased blocking, there are exceptions. The EC-Earth3 model predicts more blocking–like conditions northwest of the AP in summer and a pronounced ridge over the Bellingshausen Sea in winter, indicating a potential increase in blocking events. The INM-CM4 model projects a minor increase in summer Z500 heights off the western and southern AP, without clear blocking patterns over the AP, and negligible winter changes. Localized intensification is noted in the northern parts of the blocking domain and southern AP during extreme blocking conditions. These variations are mirrored in T2m anomalies, suggesting warming in the northern and southern sections of AP but little change elsewhere. The results of this study underscore the need to more accurately capture complex blocking mechanisms and their impacts on regional climate patterns around the AP. We also suggest employing refined blocking definitions and incorporating a broader range of climate models to enhance our understanding of blocking patterns and their impacts in a changing climate.

Spatial distribution models for the four commercial tuna in the sea of maritime continent using multi-sensor remote sensing and maximum entropy

The dynamic of marine environmental parameters affects the distribution of commercial tuna in the sea of the maritime continent. Hence, the objectives of this study are to develop spatial distribution models for the four main tuna species in the Maritime continent's sea with reasonable accuracy, identify their correlation with marine environmental parameters, and investigate areas of interaction between those tuna species. The study develops the distribution models for albacore (Thunnus alalunga), bigeye (Thunnus obesus), yellowfin (Thunnus albacares), and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) tuna species, utilizing multi-sensor satellite remote sensing and maximum entropy. The results show models have good performance, focusing on environmental factors such as sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a (CHL), and sea surface height anomalies (SSHA), combined with eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Seasonal variations in potential tuna habitats are revealed, emphasizing the influence of those marine environmental conditions. From December to May, the four commercial tuna species were distributed in conditions characterized by SST of 26–31.5 °C, CHL levels of 0–3 mg/l, SSHA of −0.3 to 0.2 m, and EKE of 0–1 m2/s2, while from June to November, they experienced SST of 23–31 °C, CHL levels of 0–4 mg/l, SSHA of −0.5 to 0.3 m, and EKE of 0–1.1 m2/s2. The spatial persistence of the four tuna species emerged mainly around the south sea of Java, with skipjack being the most common species found in the sea of the maritime continent. With sufficient and evenly distributed tuna presence records, the results indicate the potential for extrapolation beyond the training data to estimate habitat suitability for the four commercial tuna distributions. The results also suggest potential competition between tuna species sharing ecological niches and highlight possible overlapping areas where different tuna species interact with the same fishing gear.

Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity

Abstract. Extratropical storms are one of the major coastal hazards along the coastline of the German Bight, the southeastern part of the North Sea, and a major driver of coastal protection efforts. However, the predictability of these regional extreme events on a seasonal scale is still limited. We therefore improve the seasonal prediction skill of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) large-ensemble decadal hindcast system for German Bight storm activity (GBSA) in winter. We define GBSA as the 95th percentiles of three-hourly geostrophic wind speeds in winter, which we derive from mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data. The hindcast system consists of an ensemble of 64 members, which are initialized annually in November and cover the winters of 1960/61–2017/18. We consider both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of GBSA, for both of which the full ensemble produces poor predictions in the first winter. To improve the skill, we observe the state of two physical predictors of GBSA, namely 70 hPa temperature anomalies in September, as well as 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies in November, in areas where these two predictors are correlated with winter GBSA. We translate the state of these predictors into a first guess of GBSA and remove ensemble members with a GBSA prediction too far away from this first guess. The resulting subselected ensemble exhibits a significantly improved skill in both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of winter GBSA. We also show how this skill increase is associated with better predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns.