Annual Percentage Research Articles

Global burden of prostate cancer: age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2040

BackgroundProstate cancer (PCa) is the second most common cancer among men worldwide. This study uses data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to estimate the global burden of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of prostate cancer globally from 1990 to 2021. Based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI), we used the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Age-Period-Cohort model to compare the burden of disease across different age groups and regions with varying levels of development. Finally, we used the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model to predict the trend of changes in the disease burden of prostate cancer by 2040.ResultsIn 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of prostate cancer was 15.37 per 100,000, an increase from 13.69 per 100,000 in 1990. However, the age-standardized mortality rate (5.26 per 100,000) and DALY rate (95.94 per 100,000) decreased significantly compared to 1990. The burden of prostate cancer increased with age, but overall, the burden across all age groups was lower in 2021 than in 1990. The only exception was the incidence rate among individuals under 75 in 2021. High-income regions such as North America and Australia exhibited the highest burden in terms of ASIR, though there has been some reduction in recent years. Conversely, the burden of mortality and DALYs was highest in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, West Africa, and the Caribbean, where rates have continued to rise. Correlation analysis between SDI and the EAPC of the disease burden showed a negative correlation between EAPC of prostate cancer mortality and DALYs with SDI. The APC analysis showed that in 2021, the ASIR of prostate cancer in high SDI regions was still significantly higher across all age groups compared to other regions. In regions with middle SDI and above, the age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate decreased over time or across birth cohorts, with a faster decline in areas with higher SDI. By 2040, it is projected that the global ASIR of prostate cancer will reverse its current trend and increase, while the age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate will continue to decline, and the counts of incidence, mortality, and DALYs will keep rising.ConclusionAlthough the global mortality rate and DALY rate for prostate cancer show a decreasing trend, the number of new cases, deaths, and DALYs continues to rise due to global population growth and the aging population, and the disease burden remains significant. Furthermore, there are substantial geographic disparities in the disease burden of prostate cancer. Therefore, targeted programs should be implemented to strengthen prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment in these specific regions.

Predictive efficacy of different diagnostic criteria for sarcopenia in osteoporosis and fractures

This study aims to compare the predictive efficacy of different diagnostic criteria for sarcopenia in forecasting the occurrence of osteoporosis (OP) and fractures. Utilizing data from the Global Health Data Exchange, the burden of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) was assessed through indicators including incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years. Trends in MSD burden were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percentage change. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on clinical data from 8180 patients who received care at the Endocrinology Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University between April 2008 and June 2024. Patients were categorized into four groups based on sarcopenia diagnostic criteria established by the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP), the International Working Group on Sarcopenia (IWGS), the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia 2019 (AWGS 2019), and the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Sarcopenia Project. We compared demographic data, chronic disease history, body composition, bone mineral density, FRAX fracture risk, and the incidence of osteoporosis to evaluate the predictive validity of each diagnostic criterion for osteoporosis and fracture risk in patients with sarcopenia. (1) The prevalence of sarcopenia, as defined by the IWGS, FNIH, EWGSOP, and AWGS 2019 diagnostic criteria, was 39.2%, 28.3%, 55.0%, and 30.1%, respectively. (2) After adjusting for age, gender, and body mass index (BMI), a significant association between osteoporosis and sarcopenia was observed across all four diagnostic criteria (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, sarcopenia, as determined by the EWGSOP and AWGS 2019 criteria, was associated with a moderate-to-high risk of major osteoporotic fractures and hip fractures within the next 10 years (P < 0.05). (3) Spearman’s correlation coefficients for sarcopenia with Procollagen type I N-terminal propeptide (PINP), appendicular lean mass (ALM), ALM/height squared (Ht2), and ALM/BMI were − 0.034, − 0.308, − 0.261, and − 0.252, respectively. PINP, ALM, ALM/Ht2, and ALM/BMI were identified as significant factors influencing osteoporosis, with odds ratios of 0.996, 0.765, 0.535, and 0.010, respectively. The burden of MSDs is increasing in China and globally, driven primarily by population aging. Sarcopenia is significantly associated with osteoporosis and a moderate-to-high risk of fracture when diagnosed using the FNIH and EWGSOP criteria. PINP and ALM are protective factors against osteoporosis development in patients with sarcopenia.

Global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage

ObjectiveThis study provides an analysis of the global burden of Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Articular Cartilage (MNBAC) from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2030.MethodsUtilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we assessed trends in Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Articular Cartilage (MNBAC) across 204 countries, analyzing age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), along with their changes through estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). We employed decomposition analysis to explore how population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts impact MNBAC’s burden. Additionally, we used the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to forecast future MNBAC trends.ResultsIn 2021, there were 91.38 thousand new cases of MNBAC, bringing the total number of prevalent cases worldwide to 598.64 thousand. The global burden of MNBAC increased significantly, with notable disparities across genders and regions. The EAPCs for all metrics were notably high in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central Latin America. Males consistently presented higher incidence and prevalence rates than females, particularly among adolescents and the elderly. The EAPCs for all metrics were negatively correlated with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), the Human Development Index (HDI), and the Universal Health Coverage Index (UHCI). The BAPC prediction model forecasted that the global burden of MNBAC is expected to decrease by 2030.ConclusionMNBAC's significant global impact calls for targeted public health interventions tailored to the hardest-hit regions and demographic groups. Addressing socio-economic and demographic factors is essential for effective prevention and treatment strategies.

Global, regional, and national multiple myeloma burden from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis for of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundMultiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common haematological malignancy worldwide. A comprehensive global analysis of MM based on diverse geographic locations and timeframes is lacking. This study aimed to provide the incidence, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of MM, from 1990 to 2021, focusing on the age structure and temporal trends of the disease burden.MethodsThis study analysed the most recent MM data (1990 to 2021) from 204 countries and territories obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. MM incidence, age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), and DALYs were stratified by age, sex, and region to accurately reflect epidemiological trends and disease burden. The correlation between age-standardised rates and social population index was evaluated. To explore the influencing factors of MM, the annual percentage change (APC) and average APC rate (AAPC), as well as their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (UIs), were calculated.ResultsIn 2021, there were approximately 35,000 cases of MM worldwide, with the highest numbers in China and Germany, with 47,003 and 32,010 cases, respectively. In 2021, Europe had the highest ASIR and ASPR, while North America had the highest ASMR and DALYs. Globally, age-standardized ASPR, ASMR, and DALYs all increased between 1990 and 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the number of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years due to MM were higher in males than in females. The higher the sociodemographic index, the higher the ASPR.ConclusionsThe global prevalence, ASIR, ASMR and DALYs of MM increased, showing significant regional disparities. These findings underscore the need for prevention in specific populations and emphasise the urgent need for new therapies to reduce ASIR and improve patient prognosis.

The global burden of cancers attributable to occupational factors, 1990–2021

This study assessed the global cancer burden due to occupational carcinogens (OCs) using data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were employed to assess the evolving trend of cancer attributable to occupational risk. The analysis was conducted by age, year, geographical location, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Subsequently, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) values were calculated. Globally, asbestos exposure showed the most severe impact on age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate but decreased significantly. Conversely, diesel engine exhaust exposure increased, with EAPCs of 0.80 for deaths. Trichloroethylene exposure, although low in absolute terms, exhibited the fastest growth with an EAPC of 1.21 in age-standardized DALY rate. Notably, diesel engine exhaust exposure in South Asia and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania increased significantly in age-standardized DALY rate. Regions with low to middle SDI, such as South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, showed the highest increases in OC-related cancer burdens in age-standardized DALY rate. Lesotho, Kenya, and Egypt exhibited the fastest growth, with EAPCs in age-standardized DALY rate of 3.45, 2.13, and 2.95, respectively. High-income regions like the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Italy had the most severe OC-related cancer of ASDR burdens in 2021. OC exposure remains a major contributor to the global cancer burden, especially from asbestos and silica. Exposure to diesel engine exhaust was associated with increased risk of cancers, particularly in low -to -middle SDI regions such as South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Global burden of mental disorders in children and adolescents before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Childhood and adolescence are vulnerable periods for mental disorders, and the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated mental health challenges in this population. We aimed to estimate changes in the global burden of mental disorders among children and adolescents before and during the pandemic. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for mental disorders in individuals aged 5-24. Annual percent changes in age-standardized rates were calculated, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model estimated the expected and additional burden based on pre-pandemic trends. In 2021, an estimated 123.0 million new cases of mental disorders were reported among children and adolescents, with an 11.8% average annual increase in the age-standardized incidence rate during the pandemic. Anxiety disorders, which previously ranked third, became the leading cause of nonfatal disability (12.9 million [8.0-19.3] YLDs), while depressive disorders rose to fourth place (10.9 million [6.8-16.5] YLDs). The burden grew in most regions, especially among females, those aged 15-24, and in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas. Based on pre-pandemic data, we estimated an additional burden of 795.0, 165.9, and 622.8 new cases per 100,000 population for total mental disorders, anxiety disorders, and depressive disorders globally in 2021, respectively. Spearman correlation analysis showed a significant positive correlation between additional burden and SDI levels. These findings highlight the increased burden of mental disorders among children and adolescents during the pandemic, emphasizing the need for targeted post-pandemic mental health support.

Global trend and disparity in the burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2049: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundObesity and overweight are increasingly recognized as significant risk factors for the incidence and progression of thyroid cancer (TC). However, its epidemiological investigation including the disease burden and its trends remains insufficiently explored. This research aimed to reveal and predict the disease burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index (TC-HBMI), which would offer significant references for focused prevention and disease management methods.MethodsThe study extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Deaths case, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) case, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were obtained from GBD 2021 to assess the global burden from 1990 to 2021. Decomposition analysis explored the driving factors to TC-HBMI. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in ASMR and ASDR of TC-HBMI was determined to analyze temporal trends by Joinpoint regression analysis. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to project the disease burden untill 2049.ResultsThe global deaths and DALYs of TC-HBMI were 5,255 and 144,955 in 2021, exhibiting a continuous growth trend over the past 32 years. The ASMR and ASDR for males showed faster growth. The disease burden was greatest among middle-aged and older populations, while the rapidly increase in adolescents should not be overlooked. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions and Latin America each recorded the highest disease burden within their respective categories of SDI regions and GBD regions. Additionally, Predictive models indicated a gradual upward trend from 2022 to 2049.ConclusionThe study revealed that the global disease burden of TC-HBMI had continuously increased from 1990 to 2021, and it was predicted to escalate until 2049. The findings emphasize the need for more detailed TC screening and weight loss measures tailored to specific regions and populations, which would benefit efforts to curb the projected rise in TC-HBMI deaths and DALYs.

HIV mortality trends among the United States population, from 1999–2023: a CDC wonder database study

Background Despite the progress made in managing HIV, the mortality trends among general population in the US remains understudied. Our aim is to analyse the trends in HIV-related mortality among US residents by demographic characteristics and association with social vulnerability index (SVI). Methods We abstracted national mortality data from the multiple cause of death files in the CDC WONDER database. The ICD-10 Codes (B20-B24) were used to identify HIV deaths among US population from 1999 to 2023. Trends in age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis. For 10-year increment age-groups, crude mortality rates were reported. Results were expressed as annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and 95% confidence intervals (CI). SVI was obtained from CDC for each county. Results Between 1999 and 2023, a total of 271,932 HIV-infected patients died within the US (AAMR= 3.4 per 100,000; 95% CI: 3.3–3.5). Overall mortality trends decreased at an annual rate of −4.34% (95% CI: −5.25, −3.41) from 1999 through 2023 in the whole population. Specifically, the trends are higher among males age groups 45–54 years (overall rising in age 65 and above), African Americans, South Region and Large metropolitan areas. States in the top 90th percentile included District of Columbia, Florida, Maryland, Louisiana, New York, and Georgia. Union county followed by Miami-Dade are highly affected within Florida State which ranks second after District of Columbia. SVI was independently associated with HIV mortality with strong association throughout the United States counties. Conclusions HIV mortality among US population has decreased overall from 1999 to 2023, but with varying trends by race and ethnicity. This highlights the need for enhanced public health surveillance to better understand the scope of HIV mortality and identify high-risk demographic and regional subgroups for targeted interventions.

Trends in the Incidence of Cancer Among Adolescents and Young Adults Between 2000 and 2020: A Study Based on French Population-Based Registry Data.

Purpose: The recent rise in the incidence of cancer in younger adults has been described in high-income countries. This study aimed to identify cancer incidence trends in France among adolescent and young adult (AYA) population. Methods: All cases of cancer diagnosed in 15-39 years, recorded by all French population-based registries (24% of the population), over the 2000-2020 period, were included. World age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) and annual percentage change (APC) of incidence over time were calculated. Results: We analyzed 54,735 cancer diagnoses in AYAs. The ASR over the 2000-2020 period in 15-39 years was 58.1 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 57.0-59.2). ASR was lower in males (47.2 [45.7-48.6]) than in females (68.9 [67.2-70.6]). Incidence per 100,000 differed with age group from the lowest, 20.5 (19.8-21.2) in 15-19 years, to the highest, 130.3 (128.6-132.0) in 35-39 years. Increases in incidence were observed for essential thrombocythemia (APC: 3.33% [1.52-5.16]), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) (APC: 1.86% [1.21-2.52]), liposarcoma (APC: 3.68% [0.83-6.61]), carcinomas of urinary tract (APC: 3.95% [2.85-5.06]), gastrointestinal tract (APC: 2.62% [1.96-3.28]), and breast (APC: 1.61% [1.22-2.01]) from 2000 to 2020, glioblastoma (APC: 6.11% [3.06-9.26]), and other astrocytomas (APC: 7.41% [5.13-9.75]) from 2005 to 2020. Decreases in incidence were observed for oligodendroglioma (APC: -8.78% during 2005-2020), and other invasive carcinomas (APC: -3.34% during 2000-2020). Conclusion: Increases in the incidence of some AYA cancer types are observed HL, liposarcoma, carcinomas of colorectum, breast, and kidney. Results for central nervous system tumors are still to be confirmed in the years to come. Extensive efforts are needed to identify underlying risk factors responsible for these trends to inform prevention strategies.

Global temporal trends in maternal hypertensive disorders incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2021 based on the global burden of disease study

Maternal hypertensive disorders (MHD) remain a significant global health challenge. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of MHD from 1990 to 2021, focusing on incidence and mortality trends across different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions and age groups. We utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study methodologies to analyze MHD incidence and mortality. Temporal trends were examined using Joinpoint regression to calculate annual percentage changes and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence interval (CI). Age-period-cohort models were applied to analyze trends across different age groups, time periods, and birth cohorts, with particular attention to SDI regions. Globally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of MHD decreased from 554.35 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 461.38t o 675.43) per 100,000 in 1990 to 461.94 (95% UI: 392.73 to 551.65) in 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of − 0.6% (95% CI: −0.67% to − 0.53%). The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) declined from 1.94 (95% UI: 1.71–2.15) per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.97 (95% UI: 0.81–1.18) in 2021 (AAPC − 2.18%; 95% CI: −2.3% to − 2.06%). Low SDI regions faced the highest burden. Age-period-cohort analyses revealed heterogeneous trends across age groups and SDI regions, with younger age groups (particularly ages 15–19 years) showing the most substantial improvements, demonstrated by the steepest declines in both incidence (-1.62% per year) and mortality rates (-2.57% per year). More recent birth cohorts demonstrated greater improvements, with declining risks of both incidence and mortality compared to earlier birth cohorts. Despite global reductions in MHD incidence and mortality over the past three decades, substantial disparities persist across regions and age groups. Targeted interventions, particularly in low SDI regions and among high-risk age groups, are crucial for further reducing the global burden of MHD.

Time Trend Analysis of Early Term Births in Greece (1980-2023): Persistent High Rates Raise Public Health Concerns.

Neonates born at 37-38 weeks of gestation have been shown to face a relatively higher risk of mortality and various morbidities compared to those born at full term (39-41 weeks). The aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive analysis of early term birth rate (ETBR) trends in Greece from 1980 to 2023. Data on live births in Greece from 1980 to 2023 were obtained from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), based on birth certificate records. A total of 4,595,020 live births were categorized by gestational age. The annual ETBR was calculated as the number of live births occurring at 37-38 completed gestational weeks (from 37+0 to 38+6 weeks) per 100 total live births. Additionally, ETBR was calculated separately for 37 and 38 gestational weeks, as well as the overall birth rate < 39 weeks of gestation. Time trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis. The ETBR decreased with an annual percent change (APC) of -1.4 (95% confidence interval (CI): -1.8 to -0.9, p = 0.004) between 1980 and 1994, followed by a sharper decline with an APC of -12.8 (95% CI: -14.4 to -8.5, p = 0.005) during 1994-1997. Subsequently, the ETBR increased with an APC of 3.2 (95% CI: 2.0 to 5.6, p = 0.016) from 1997 to 2004. This trend reversed again from 2004 to 2010, with an APC of -2.6 (95% CI: -5.9 to -1.1, p = 0.016), while in the most recent period (2010-2023), the ETBR stabilized (p = 0.630), fluctuating between 41.9% in 2010 and 44.3% in 2012 and 2013. During the study period (1980-2023), the ETBR at 37 weeks increased by an average of 7.1% per year, whereas the ETBR at 38 weeks decreased by an average of -2.1% annually. The overall birth rate < 39 weeks of gestation has remained consistently above 50% over the past two decades (2004-2023). In 2023, the ETBR was 43.7%, while a total of 56.0% of neonates were born < 39 gestational weeks. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of ETBR in Greece, revealing persistently high levels that exceed those of all developed countries. The elevated rate is likely driven by factors such as maternal demographics and obstetrical practices. The alarmingly high levels of ETBR, combined with the country's extremely high preterm birth rates, result in a substantial burden of neonatal morbidity and an increased risk of potential chronic diseases. These findings underscore an enormous public health challenge.

The global, regional, and national burdens of dementia in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021: A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

The global population is aging, and as a consequence, the prevalence of dementia is increasing rapidly. This study aims to analyze trends in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and health inequalities for dementia over the period 1990 to 2021. The incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year rates of dementia in the GBD 2021 database were analyzed at the global, national, and regional levels for the period 1990 to 2021 using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The trends over the period were assessed using a combination of age-standardized rates, average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), and a sociodemographic index. The analysis revealed that, from 1990 to 2021, the global AAPC in dementia incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years amounted to 0.06 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05-0.09), 0.09 (95% CI: 0.08-0.10), and 0.03 (95% CI: 0.01-0.05), respectively. Conversely, the mean AAPC in age-standardized mortality rate remained stable at 0 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.03). The age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of dementia exhibited a positive association with sociodemographic index during the study period. The 3 regions with the highest mean AAPC in age-standardized mortality rate among the 21 GBD regions were South Africa, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings of the study indicate that the burden of dementia increases with age and is projected to remain on an upward trend until 2040. The GBD has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, and the prevention and control of dementia represents a long-term and formidable challenge.

Uterine Rupture Trends in Patients Pursuing Trial of Labor After Cesarean in the United States from 2010 to 2022.

Uterine Rupture Trends in Patients Pursuing Trial of Labor After Cesarean in the United States from 2010 to 2022.

Trends in breast cancer mortality in Peru and its geographical areas from 2013 to 2022 and prediction until 2027

BackgroundIn 2022, breast cancer was one of the most commonly diagnosed neoplasms and the leading cause of cancer death among women worldwide. In Peru, reports on mortality due to this neoplasm are scarce, especially after implementing strategies to reduce its impact. This study aimed to estimate mortality rates for breast cancer in Peru and its geographic regions from 2013 to 2022 and to project its evolution to 2027.MethodsAn observational ecological study of multiple time series was conducted. Data were obtained from the Ministry of Health’s death database via SINADEF. Mortality rates per 100,000 women were calculated using the direct method and Segi’s world standard population. Mortality trends were analyzed using the Annual Percent Change (APC) calculated with Joinpoint regression software. Predictions for 2027 were also made using the Nordpred package in R Studio.ResultsIn 2013, the departments with the highest breast cancer mortality rates in Peru were Ica, Callao, Lambayeque and La Libertad. In 2022, Ancash and Tumbes were added, with Tumbes having the highest rates. For women under 50, Lambayeque and Madre de Dios led in 2013, while for women over 50, Tumbes had the highest mortality rate in 2022. Peru reported a significant increase of 3.97% on an annual basis for the entire period. According to regions, Rainforest region (APC = + 8.37) and the Rainforest region (APC = + 11.55) showed significant increases in mortality rates, while no significant changes were observed in the Coastal region. Moreover, an increase in breast cancer mortality in Peru is projected for the year 2027.ConclusionBreast cancer mortality in Peru has shown a constant increase, with significant regional disparities. The highest rates were recorded in the coastal region, although the Andean and jungle regions experienced the most pronounced increases. These disparities may be attributed to data underreporting during the COVID-19 pandemic and unequal access to diagnostic and treatment services. The findings highlight the urgent need for focused public health interventions to reduce these regional gaps and improve breast cancer management outcomes.

A systematic analysis and prediction of the disease burden of ischemic heart disease caused by hyperglycemia.

This study aims to analyze the disease burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) caused by hyperglycemia and its changing trend, and to construct a visualization platform for disease burden and forecast trends on the Shiny platform. Using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study, we analyzed deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to IHD triggered by hyperglycemia, with detailed analysis by region, gender, and age. The age-period-cohort model was used to assess the impact of age, cohort, and period on age-standardized disease rates across different Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, and decomposition analysis was employed to disentangle the contributions of population, aging, and epidemiological changes. In 2021, approximately 14-15% of IHD's DALYs and deaths were attributed to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), with a nonsignificant decrease in the annual average percentage change of DALYs. In middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions, the age-standardized mortality rates caused by HFPG are increasing, particularly among males. In high-middle and high SDI regions, the effects of aging and epidemiological changes surpass population growth, whereas in low SDI regions, population growth is the main factor. By 2050, the global Age-Standardized Mortality Rate of IHD attributed to HFPG is projected to reach 16.96. More data can be accessed by visiting the disease burden visualization platform. Global HFPG-induced IHD health presents significant imbalances. In low SDI regions with larger populations and more unbalanced healthcare distribution, there is a need to strengthen the construction of medical levels.

Global, regional, and national epidemiology of ischemic heart disease among individuals aged 55 and above from 1990 to 2021: a cross-sectional study

BackgroundThe findings of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study can offer valuable insights for the development of screening and prevention strategies targeting ischemic heart disease (IHD). We aim to investigate trends in IHD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), while exploring associated risk factors for IHD-associated death from 1990 to 2021.MethodsThe cross-sectional study utilized data from the GBD 2021, covering 204 countries and regions. The analysis included individuals aged 55 and above. We analyzed the trends in IHD incidence, all cause and cause-specific deaths, DALYs, and corresponding estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) from 1990 to 2021. These indicators were further stratified by geographical region, country, age group, gender, and sociodemographic index (SDI).ResultsThe global incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALYs rate for individuals aged 55 and above with IHD have shown a decreasing trend. However, the number of incident cases, death cases, and DALYs has been increasing from 1990 to 2021. Both the high-middle and high SDI regions exhibit a significant decline in these rates from 1990 to 2021. However, the low SDI, low-middle SDI, and middle SDI regions show less noticeable changes. The region with low-middle SDI experiences the largest increase in mortality rate (EAPC: 0.38; 95%CI, 0.33–0.44) and DALYs rate (EAPC: 0.17; 95%CI, 0.12–0.22). The region with middle SDI experiences the largest increase in incidence rate (EAPC: 0.37; 95%CI, 0.27–0.46). Regionally, East Asia exhibits the greatest increase in incidence rate (EAPC: 0.94; 95% CI, 0.79–1.10), mortality rate (EAPC: 1.68; 95% CI, 1.40–1.94), and DALYs rate (EAPC: 0.94; 95% CI, 0.69–1.20). Among the 12 risk factors associated with mortality from IHD, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels, and air pollution are identified as the primary contributors to global mortality.ConclusionsThis study reveals that in high SDI regions, the incidence, mortality, and DALYs rate of IHD are declining. Conversely, in low to middle SDI regions, the disease burden of IHD is increasing. It highlights global inequality in IHD burden. Recommendations include early screening, risk management, and strengthening primary care, especially in middle and low SDI regions. Countries should also invest in environmental governance and air pollution control. Future research should focus on evaluating the effects of health policies in different countries, exploring the impact of socio-economic and cultural factors on the burden of IHD, and developing big data-based prediction models to optimize resource allocation and intervention strategies.

The burden and trends of depressive disorders in adolescent and young adults aged 15-29 in China, 1990-2021 and its prediction to 2030: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

The burden and trends of depressive disorders in adolescent and young adults aged 15-29 in China, 1990-2021 and its prediction to 2030: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Favorable trends in lung cancer incidence with unfavorable survival prognosis: A spatiotemporal analysis by histology in Córdoba, Argentina.

Favorable trends in lung cancer incidence with unfavorable survival prognosis: A spatiotemporal analysis by histology in Córdoba, Argentina.

Urticaria in China: incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years compared with G20 countries: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.

Urticaria has become a major public health challenge in China, yet comprehensive national data assessments are lacking. This study analyzes the burden of urticaria in China compared to G20 countries from 1990 to 2021. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we examined the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of urticaria by age and sex in China. Temporal trends were assessed using Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) estimates. We also decomposed the changes in new cases, patient numbers, and urticaria burden in G20 countries and globally from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, China reported 17.30million (95% uncertainty interval, 15.37-19.25) new cases of urticaria, 9.87million (8.72-10.99) existing cases of urticaria, and 0.59million (0.39-0.82) DALYs due to urticaria, ranking second among G20 countries. These metrics peaked in females under 5 years old. Age-standardized rates in China were lower than the global average and remained stable from 1990 to 2021. The under-5 age group showed the fastest growth in prevalence and DALY rates. The number of urticaria patients increased by 8.52%, with population growth contributing 19.86%, aging - 11.31%, and age-specific prevalence - 0.03%. Despite stable age-standardized rates, the absolute burden of urticaria in China has risen, particularly among females under 5 years old, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions. Improving public emergency awareness and response is critical for urticaria patients, who may develop severe systemic diseases and fatal allergic symptoms.

Mortality Trends in Polymyositis and Dermatomyositis in Mexico: A General Population-Based Study From 2000 to 2019.

Patients with polymyositis and dermatomyositis (PM/DM) are prone to multiple complications that may lead to increased mortality rates. Data about PM/DM mortality in Mexico are lacking. The aim of this study was to assess mortality trends in PM/DM in Mexico across 2 decades (2000-2019), overall, by sex, age group, and geographic region. From 2000 to 2019, PM/DM deaths were identified in Mexican open-access health databases using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated for PM/DM and non-PM/DM deaths by sex and geographic region. The annual percent change (APC) in ASMR was calculated using Joinpoint Regression Software. We found 11.3 million non-PM/DM deaths and 1456 PM/DM deaths in Mexico during the period 2000-2019. Seventy percent of PM/DM deaths occurred in females. PM/DM ASMR was 0.06-0.07/100,000 inhabitants and higher in females (0.08-0.11/100,000). Remarkably, 40% of PM/DM deaths happened in individuals younger than 45 years. This was almost double the percentage than in non-PM/DM deaths. A significant PM/DM ASMR downtrend was identified from 2007 to 2017 (APC, -3.2%; 95% confidence interval, -5.3 to -1.0; p = 0.008), whereas mortality trends were stable for non-PM/DM deaths. No significant changes through time were identified in PM/DM mortality by geographic region in Mexico; however, an increment in PM/DM to non-PM/DM ASMR ratio was detected in the north (+17.6%) and southeast (+84.9%) of Mexico. Mexico's PM/DM mortality rates have significantly decreased over the past 2 decades, particularly from 2007 to 2017. This trend is more pronounced among younger individuals and those outside the country's southeastern region.