Amplitude Of Cycle Research Articles

Nonlinear response of laterally cyclic loaded pile in cohesionless soil based on conical strain wedge model

The response to environmental lateral cyclic loads is an important design consideration for offshore piles installed in sand. This paper proposes a novel conical strain wedge (CSW) model to simulate the pile-cohesionless soil interaction under lateral cyclic loads. The CSW model enhances the depiction of passive compression soil zone resistance and failure pattern compared to the conventional strain wedge (SW). The developed model is incorporated in a simplified and efficient method to calculate the nonlinear pile response to lateral cyclic loads. The performance of the developed theoretical model is validated by comparing its predictions with observations from several experimental studies reported in the literature. The validated CSW model and its solutions are then employed to elucidate the performance characteristics of the pile-soil system under cyclic loading. The results revealed that: (1) the degradation of soil stiffness is more pronounced at the onset of cyclic loading and the rate of increase in pile response due to degradation diminishes with the increase in the number of loading cycles; (2) as the cyclic load amplitude increases, the increase in pile displacement becomes increasingly severe; (3) the number of loading cycles has greater influence on the response of piles with lower flexural stiffness; and (4) the effect of soil shear strength on the pile displacement becomes significant as the number of loading cycles increases, whereas its effect on the pile maximum bending moment diminishes gradually.

Seasonal and Diurnal Variations in XCO2 Characteristics in China as Observed by OCO‐2/3 Satellites: Effects of Land Cover and Local Meteorology

AbstractMonitoring the dynamics of atmospheric CO2 is crucial for enhancing comprehension of the carbon cycle. Using column‐averaged dry‐air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) data collected by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)‐2 and OCO‐3 satellites during 2020–2021, this study explored seasonal and diurnal variations in XCO2 characteristics in typical land cover biomes in China, and investigated their relationships with meteorological drivers. Results showed that XCO2 products retrieved by OCO‐2 and OCO‐3 have good agreement with Total Carbon Column Observing Network measurements, with average deviations of 0.8 and 1.2 ppm, respectively. The satellite observations revealed XCO2 hotpots located mainly in central and eastern China, and areas of low XCO2 values in western China, with a seasonal curve that was highest (lowest) in spring (summer). The largest seasonal cycle amplitude (∼9 ppm) of XCO2 was observed in forest areas, highlighting its key role in carbon exchange. Additionally, XCO2 was found to have a near‐sinusoidal diurnal pattern, characterized by rapid decrease in the early morning as photosynthesis resumed after sunrise, as indicated by the sun‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a peak at around midday, and subsequent decrease as SIF increased after mid‐afternoon. Urban regions had the highest diurnal cycle amplitude (∼6 ppm) among biomes. Statistical analyses revealed seasonal shift and nonlinear variation in the relationships between XCO2 and meteorological variables, suggesting that CO2 uptake is influenced by favorable humidity conditions. These relationships also provide insight into the sensitivity and adaptability of XCO2 to meteorological factors in diverse ecosystems such as savanna and grassland.

Preparation of cement modified by multi-walled carbon nanotubes and investigation of its piezoelectric property

This study focuses on investigating the properties of a cement-based piezoelectric composite modified with 0.5 % Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (MWCNTs) under varying stress conditions. Through calibration methods, a critical point named G was identified at around 60.4 MPa. Below this point, the force-electric response displayed a linear relationship, characterized by an average sensitivity of 117 pC/N. Conversely, above this point, non-linear behavior surfaced due to internal damage within the piezoelectric ceramic, leading to diminished piezoelectric properties. The frequency response characteristics highlighted efficient conversion of pressure signals to electrical signals with minimal delay, showcasing stability across diverse cyclic loading amplitudes. In addition, a dynamic compression experiment revealed sensitivity to strain rate and the notable contribution of domain switching to total strain. Moreover, an analysis of the stress–strain curve under impact load provided insights into the composite's non-linear growth and its response to strain rate variations.

Constraining the budget of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide using a 3-D chemical transport model

Abstract. Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) has emerged as a valuable proxy for photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) and is known to be important in the formation of aerosols in the stratosphere. However, uncertainties in the global OCS budget remain large. This is mainly due to the following three flux terms: vegetation uptake, soil uptake and oceanic emissions. Bottom-up estimates do not yield a closed budget, which is thought to be due to tropical emissions of OCS that are not accounted for. Here we present a simulation of atmospheric OCS over the period 2004–2018 using the TOMCAT 3-D chemical transport model that is aimed at better constraining some terms in the OCS budget. Vegetative uptake of OCS is estimated by scaling gross primary productivity (GPP) output from the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) using the leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach. The remaining surface budget terms are taken from available literature flux inventories and adequately scaled to bring the budget into balance. The model is compared with limb-sounding satellite observations made by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and surface flask measurements from 14 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL) sites worldwide. We find that calculating vegetative uptake using the LRU underestimates the surface seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes and high latitudes by approximately 37 ppt (35 %). The inclusion of a large tropical source is able to balance the global budget, but further improvement to the SCA and phasing would likely require a flux inversion scheme. Compared to co-located ACE-FTS OCS profiles between 5 and 30 km, TOMCAT remains within 25 ppt (approximately 5 % of mean tropospheric concentration) of the measurements throughout the majority of this region and lies within the standard deviation of these measurements. This provides confidence in the representation of atmospheric loss and surface fluxes of OCS in the model. Atmospheric sinks account for 154 Gg S of the annual budget, which is 10 %–50 % larger than previous studies. Comparing the surface monthly anomalies from the NOAA-ESRL flask data to the model simulations shows a root-mean-square error range of 3.3–25.8 ppt. We estimate the total biosphere uptake to be 951 Gg S, which is in the range of recent inversion studies (893–1053 Gg S), but our terrestrial vegetation flux accounts for 629 Gg S of the annual budget, which is lower than other recent studies (657–756 Gg S). However, to close the budget, we compensate for this with a large annual oceanic emission term of 689 Gg S focused over the tropics, which is much larger than bottom-up estimates (285 Gg S). Hence, we agree with recent findings that missing OCS sources likely originate from the tropical region. This work shows that satellite OCS profiles offer a good constraint on atmospheric sinks of OCS through the troposphere and stratosphere and are therefore useful for helping to improve surface budget terms. This work also shows that the LRU approach is an adequate representation of the OCS vegetative uptake, but this method could be improved by various means, such as using a higher-resolution GPP product or plant-functional-type-dependent LRU. Future work will utilise TOMCAT in a formal inversion scheme to better quantify the OCS budget.

Loading Variable Effects on Fatigue Behavior of Wood Flour High-Density Polyethylene Composites

Abstract This article investigated the flexural fatigue properties of wood flour high-density polyethylene composites. Composites with polymer matrix were fabricated and subjected to three-point bending fatigue tests. Cyclic loads were performed at different loading ratios (0.1 and 0.3) and frequencies (0.9 and 5.2 Hz) to determine the effect of these parameters on the fatigue behavior of composite samples. Cyclic stress amplitude versus number of cycles to failure curves of experiments were plotted and compared. For safe fatigue design and material reliability index, a 95 % confidence interval band of fatigue lives were plotted. Stiffness reduction approach was used to evaluate and monitor damage evolution. An experiment like this provides insight into fatigue properties of wood-fiber plastic composites to improve the life of parts under cyclic loading.

Dependence of North–South Difference in the Slope of Joy’s Law on the Amplitude of Solar Cycle

Dependence of North–South Difference in the Slope of Joy’s Law on the Amplitude of Solar Cycle

Experimental Study of the Nonlinear Behaviour of Deep-Sea Mooring Polyester Fibre Ropes

Abstract Mooring ropes are essential components of ships and offshore floating structures and they are subjected to cyclic axial loads. This study investigates the evolution of the full-cycle stiffness of fibre polyester ropes under long-term static and dynamic loading. First, the static stiffness characteristics of the ropes, including the rope elongation properties at different stages, shrinkage rates, and creep coefficients after an idle period, are examined under static loads; an empirical formula for static stiffness is established. Second, the dynamic stiffness characteristics of the ropes are investigated under cyclic loads that are typical of platform production operations. The stabilities of the structure under different tensions are compared; the effects of mean tension, tension amplitude, and load cycle on the dynamic stiffness of the ropes are analysed and an empirical formula is established to predict the dynamic stiffness during the engineering design phase. The results of this study can be helpful for the rational design of deep-sea taut-leg mooring systems because they present the evolution of the full-cycle stiffness characteristics of mooring ropes.

Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis

AbstractThe seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of variability in the air‐sea CO2 flux in most regions of the global ocean, yet discrepancies between different seasonality estimates are rather large. As part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 project (RECCAP2), we synthesize surface ocean pCO2 and air‐sea CO2 flux seasonality from models and observation‐based estimates, focusing on both a present‐day climatology and decadal changes between the 1980s and 2010s. Four main findings emerge: First, global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs) and observation‐based estimates (pCO2 products) of surface pCO2 seasonality disagree in amplitude and phase, primarily due to discrepancies in the seasonal variability in surface DIC. Second, the seasonal cycle in pCO2 has increased in amplitude over the last three decades in both pCO2 products and GOBMs. Third, decadal increases in pCO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in subtropical biomes for both pCO2 products and GOBMs are driven by increasing DIC concentrations stemming from the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant). In subpolar and Southern Ocean biomes, however, the seasonality change for GOBMs is dominated by Cant invasion, whereas for pCO2 products an indeterminate combination of Cant invasion and climate change modulates the changes. Fourth, biome‐aggregated decadal changes in the amplitude of pCO2 seasonal variability are largely detectable against both mapping uncertainty (reducible) and natural variability uncertainty (irreducible), but not at the gridpoint scale over much of the northern subpolar oceans and over the Southern Ocean, underscoring the importance of sustained high‐quality seasonally resolved measurements over these regions.

A Numerical Study of the Behavior of Micropile Foundations under Cyclic Thermal Loading

Micropiles are small-diameter foundation elements that are widely used in building refurbishment to reinforce existing foundations or provide new foundations where access for construction is difficult. Thermally-activated (TA) micropiles could be useful as an efficient means of providing cost-effective ground-coupling when shallow geothermal energy systems are considered in building rehabilitation. It is well-established that thermal activation of pile foundations results in thermo-mechanical interactions between the pile and the surrounding soil. These thermally-induced effects need to be examined to ensure that they do not adversely impact the load transfer function of the micropile. Numerical analysis is able to produce reliable predictions of thermo-mechanical behavior of TA piles, and this study applied this technique to examine the cyclic thermal behavior of micropiles, isolated and in groups. For the situations considered in this study, it is shown that during cyclic thermal activation, irrecoverable movements are unlikely to be significant in design terms, if the initial mobilization of the shaft resistance is low. Though stable, cyclic thermal movement amplitudes are large enough that they should be considered in design. The study highlights that large changes in thermal stress can develop and be locked-in to the response of long flexible piles, and that these should be verified in design. Further, as pile spacing reduces, thermal interference results in a loss of heat exchange capacity per pile, which has to be considered in the design of large groups of TA micropiles. Therefore, TA micropiles can offer an efficient and secure means of providing ground coupling in shallow geothermal energy systems.

Pulse-Width-Modulation-Based Time-Delay Compensation Control for High-Speed On/Off Valves

The dynamic characteristics of high-speed on/off valves (HSVs) are a key factor in measuring their performance, and determining the control accuracy of valve-controlled systems. Furthermore, the hysteresis characteristics of HSVs can seriously affect their dynamic characteristics. This study evaluated the hysteresis characteristics of HSVs in a valve-controlled hydraulic control system, and considered the pressure changes in front of the valve during the opening and closing process of the valve core. A time-delay compensation control (TDCC) based on pulse-width modulation (PWM) was proposed. The reference PWM signal was used to control the opening and closing time of the HSV, while the loading signal was composed of an opening compensation PWM, an excitation PWM, an opening holding PWM, and a closing compensation PWM. Using an opening compensation PWM to start the initial current, combined with current feedback and pressure changes in front of the valve, the amplitude and duty cycle of different PWM signals were determined in real time. This reduced the time delay and working current of the HSV during opening and closing. A simulation comparison analysis was conducted, with a single PWM control and a pre-excitation control algorithm (PECA). The results showed that, compared to a single PWM control, the TDCC can reduce the overall opening and closing time delay by 78.1%, and the energy consumption by 64.7%. Compared with PECA, the overall opening and closing time delay was reduced by 10.9%, and the energy consumption was reduced by 28%. At the same time, the frequency response of the valve core displacement increased by 70%, compared to the single PWM control.

Response of the Anchoring Performance at Betula platyphylla’s Root–Soil Interface to Cyclic Loading

In dealing with issues such as soil erosion and slope instability, plant roots enhance the shear strength of the soil mass through their anchoring effect. However, in nature, cyclic loads such as flash floods and blizzards indirectly impose fatigue effects on plant root systems. To explore the impact of cyclic loads on the anchoring capacity of plant roots, this paper selects the roots of Betula platyphylla as the research object and uses a monotonic load and cyclic load as two loading modes. Under different loading amplitudes (25%, 50%, and 75%), root diameters and burial depths (50 mm, 100 mm, and 150 mm), and soil moisture contents (11.85%, 13.85%, and 15.85%), the effects of each factor on the anchoring capacity of the roots under cyclic loading are analyzed. The results showed that the root–soil interface exhibited two failure modes under different cyclic load amplitudes, and the cyclic load significantly reduced the maximum friction of the root–soil interface. As the cyclic load amplitude increased (from 25% to 75%), the hysteretic curve envelope area increased, and the growth rate of cumulative residual slip changed from decreasing to decreasing and then increasing. A good correlation was found between cumulative residual slip and the number of loading cycles, and the three characteristic slips were correlated with loading amplitude but not significantly with diameter. The increase in soil moisture content, root embedment depth, and diameter led to an increase in the ratio of the two maximum friction forces. It was shown that a certain degree of plasticity exists at the root–soil interface to resist environmental stresses in nature. At high fatigue stress levels, the root–soil interface is more nonlinear, and as the load amplitude increases, more energy is dissipated, and bond damage between the root–soil interface becomes more pronounced. The root–soil interface gradually degraded under long-term cyclic loading, whereas the increase in root depth and soil water content could resist the negative effect of cyclic loading on anchorage capacity, and the resistance effect became more and more obvious with the increase in diameter.

Assessing the Nonlinear Changes in Global Navigation Satellite System Vertical Time Series with Environmental Loading in Mainland China

This study investigated the nonlinear changes in the vertical motion of 411 GNSS reference stations situated in mainland China and assessed the influence of the environmental load on their vertical displacement. The researchers evaluated the effect of environmental load by calculating the change in annual cycle amplitude before and after its removal, focusing on its impact across regions with distinct foundation types. The results demonstrate that removing the environmental load led to a considerable reduction of approximately 50.25% in the annual cycle amplitude of vertical motion for GNSS reference stations in mainland China. This reduction in amplitude improved the positioning accuracy of the stations, with the highest WRMS reduction being 2.72 mm and an average reduction of 1.03 mm. The most significant impact was observed in the southwestern, northern, and northwestern regions, where the amplitude experienced a notable decrease. Conversely, the southeastern region exhibited a corresponding increase in amplitude. This article innovatively explored the effects of environmental loads on diverse foundation types. When categorizing GNSS reference stations based on their foundation type, namely, bedrock, 18 m soil layer, and 4–8 m soil layer stations, this study found that removing the environmental load resulted in reductions in annual cycle amplitudes of 49.37%, 59.61%, and 46.48%, respectively. These findings indicate that 18 m soil layer stations were more susceptible to environmental load-induced vertical motion. In conclusion, the impact of the environmental load was crucial when analyzing the vertical motion of GNSS reference stations in mainland China, as it was essential for establishing a high-precision coordinate reference framework and studying the tectonic structure of the region.

Fatigue strength estimation of a CF/PEKK composite through self-heating temperature analysis using cyclic bending tests at 20 kHz

Very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) testing at conventional frequencies is highly time-consuming and unrealistic for large sample sizes. Though testing at ultrasonic frequencies can accelerate the testing, any undesirable thermal effect arising from testing at 20 kHz can cause significant heat generation in the specimens, increasing the likelihood of thermally induced failure. When mitigated, the temperature behavior during ultrasonic fatigue testing may conversely provide knowledge of the fatigue behavior of the composite. We study this hypothesis in this work by estimating the fatigue strength of a CF/PEKK composite through its temperature evolution during 3-point bending tests at 20 kHz with different cyclic load amplitudes. The fatigue strength of the composite was estimated using the temperature characteristics from an increasing cyclic amplitude test. This estimation was validated with four constant cyclic amplitude tests. Further, the estimation model was extended to different pulse–pause sequences by two constant cyclic amplitude tests. The results indicate a reliable and rapid method for fatigue life estimation as a material property. Finally, the criticality of the self-heating phenomenon during the non-stationary self-heating condition was evaluated.

The effect of cyclic stretch on aortic viscoelasticity and the putative role of smooth muscle focal adhesion.

Due to its viscoelastic properties, the aorta aids in dampening blood pressure pulsatility. At the level of resistance-arteries, the pulsatile flow will be transformed into a continuous flow to allow for optimal perfusion of end organs such as the kidneys and the brain. In this study, we investigated the ex vivo viscoelastic properties of different regions of the aorta of healthy C57Bl6/J adult mice as well as the interplay between (altered) cyclic stretch and viscoelasticity. We demonstrated that the viscoelastic parameters increase along the distal aorta and that the effect of altered cyclic stretch is region dependent. Increased cyclic stretch, either by increased pulse pressure or pulse frequency, resulted in decreased aortic viscoelasticity. Furthermore, we identified that the vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) is an important modulator of viscoelasticity, as we have shown that VSMC contraction increases viscoelastic parameters by, in part, increasing elastin fiber tortuosity. Interestingly, an acute increase in stretch amplitude reverted the changes in viscoelastic properties induced by VSMC contraction, such as a decreasing contraction-induced elastin fiber tortuosity. Finally, the effects of altered cyclic stretch and VSMC contraction on viscoelasticity were more pronounced in the abdominal infrarenal aorta, compared to both the thoracic ascending and descending aorta, and were attributed to the activity and stability of VSMC focal adhesion. Our results indicate that cyclic stretch is a modulator of aortic viscoelasticity, acting on VSMC focal adhesion. Conditions of (acute) changes in cyclic stretch amplitude and/or frequency, such as physical exercise or hypertension, can alter the viscoelastic properties of the aorta.

On the use of frictional dampers for flutter mitigation of a highly flexible wing

The prospect of aeroelastic instability, leading to large-amplitude limit cycle oscillations, is of particular concern for the highly flexible wings of solar high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) aircraft. Among the different strategies of vibration control, passive mitigation through friction dampers stands out as a promising solution in this context. While this concept has been proposed previously, related studies systematically use simple two-degrees-of-freedom airfoil models. In this paper, a more realistic structural model involving a three-dimensional nonlinear beam description of a full wing is considered. A friction damper is installed at a specific location on the wing span, and the response to aerodynamic loads is investigated numerically. Comparisons of critical speed and limit cycle amplitudes with and without the damper suggest improved vibration mitigation with respect to a linear viscous damper.

Investigating mechanical properties of cemented gangue backfill materials subjected to static-dynamic combined loads

This study aims to investigate the mechanical properties and failure mechanisms for the cemented gangue backfill materials (CGBM) of the roadside filling structures along the gob-side entry with no coal pillars under static-dynamic combined loading. Cuboid cemented gangue backfill samples (CGBS) with dimensions of 50 × 50 × 100 mm were first prepared, with the fractal dimension D = 2.6 characterizing the particle size distribution of aggregates, and then conducted static-dynamic combined loading tests in terms of various pre-static loads (5–11 MPa), amplitudes (2–5 MPa), frequencies (1–16 Hz) and dynamic loading cycles (20–320 cycles). The test results indicate significant differences in the mechanical properties, acoustic emission (AE) responses, maximum principal strain fields, and ultimate failure modes of CGBS under different static-dynamic combined loading paths. With an increasing pre-static load, dynamic loading amplitude and number of cycles, the peak stress decreases by 21.28 %, 12.48 % and 11.84 % respectively, while the peak stress first decreases and then increases with the dynamic loading frequency and reaches the minimum value at the “characteristic frequency” of 4 Hz. The irreversible strain generally experiences an “acceleration - constant speed” variation during the dynamic loading as a result of the gradually stable damage effects. The dynamic elastic modulus increases by 45.84% in the pre-static load range of 5–11 MPa, while decreases with the dynamic loading amplitude. The dissipated energy increases by a factor of 6.5 with the dynamic loading amplitude, and by 27.52% with the pre-static loads. The significantly stimulated cracking activities at the beginning of dynamic loading result in extremely violent AE responses, and then the AE signals weaken due to the dominate role of opening and closure of existing cracks. The RA and AF calculation results illustrate that shear cracks become active at the initial dynamic loading and macroscopic failure stages. As the degradation effects of dynamic loading intensify, three various failure modes of inclined shear failure, “Y” shaped shear failure and conjugate shear failure for the CGBS are respectively classified, especially the conjugate shear failure characterized by two cone-shaped blocks. The findings will contribute to a better understanding of the mechanical responses and failure mechanisms of the roadside filling body during the dynamic mining.

Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Ascending Inflection Point

In this work, we predict the maximum amplitude (using the 13-month smoothed Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SILSO) Sunspot Number, version 2) of Solar Cycle 25 using as a predictor the slope of the inflection point during the ascending part of the cycle. After a description of the data and methodology employed in this work, we obtain a value of 131 ± 32 for the maximum amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Finally, we discuss this result in the context of the current debate on the prediction of solar activity and compare it with other predictions of Solar Cycle 25 obtained by other methods.

Spatial Response of Greenland's Firn Layer to NAO Variability

AbstractFirn on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) buffers meltwater, and has a variable thickness, complicating observations of volume change to mass change. In this study, we use a firn model (IMAU‐FDM v1.2G) forced by a regional climate model (RACMO2.3p2) to investigate how the GrIS firn layer thickness and pore space have evolved since 1958 in response to variability in the large‐scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales, the firn layer thickness and pore space show a spatially heterogeneous response to variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Notably, a stronger NAO following the record warm summer of 2012 led the firn layer in the south and east of the ice sheet to regain thickness and pore space after a period of thinning and reduced pore space. In the southwest, a decrease in melt dominated after 2012, whereas in the east, the main driver was an increase in snow accumulation. At the same time, the firn in the northwestern ice sheet continued to lose pore space. The NAO also varies on intra‐annual timescales, being typically stronger in winter than in summer. This impacts the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in GrIS firn thickness and pore space. In the wet southeastern GrIS, most of the snow accumulates during the winter, when melting and densification are relatively weak, leading to a large seasonal cycle in thickness and pore space. The opposite occurs in other regions, where snowfall peaks in summer or autumn. This dampens the seasonal amplitude of firn thickness and pore space.

Prediction of Sunspot Cycle 24 Based on Geometric Indices of Sunspot Cycles 17 to 23

Prediction of the peak amplitude, duration of the rise time, and the length of Sunspot Cycle 24 are made through a statistical analysis using some of the derived parameters called geometric indices of Sunspot Cycles 17 to 23. The geometric parameters considered are: The rate of the ascent phase, rate of the descent phase, maximum amplitude, rise time, fall time, and length. These parameters are computed from cycles 17 to 23. Then, the pair wise correlation between these six parameters computed. A strong correlation is found between the rate of ascent phase and amplitude, rate of the ascent phase and rise time, and the rise time and length. The linear regression models derived from these correlations are directly used to predict the peak amplitude, duration of the rise time, and the length of sunspot cycle 24.The rate of rise computed from the initial 30 months of data is enough to predict the peak amplitude, epoch of the occurrence of peak amplitude and total length of the cycle. The predicted features of smoothed sunspot cycle 24 are: Maximum amplitude of cycle is 73.52 ± 10.6 numbers, length of cycle is 148 ± 7.3 months, i.e., cycle 24 ends between December 2020 and April 2022, and the occurrence of maximum amplitude is 52 ± 3.1 months, i.e, cycle 24 reach to peak amplitude between January 2013 and July 2013.

Impact of Anomalous Active Regions on the Large-scale Magnetic Field of the Sun

One of the major sources of perturbation in the solar cycle amplitude is believed to be the emergence of anomalous active regions that do not obey Hale’s polarity law and Joy’s law of tilt angles. Anomalous regions containing high magnetic flux that disproportionately impact the polar field are sometimes referred to as “rogue regions.” In this study, utilizing a surface flux transport model, we analyze the large-scale dipole moment buildup due to the emergence of anomalous active regions on the solar surface. Although these active regions comprise a small fraction of the total sunspot number, they can substantially influence the magnetic dipole moment buildup and subsequent solar cycle amplitude. Our numerical simulations demonstrate that the impact of “anti-Joy” regions on the solar cycle is similar to those of “anti-Hale” regions. We also find that the emergence time, emergence latitude, relative number, and flux distribution of anomalous regions influence the large-scale magnetic field dynamics in diverse ways. We establish that the results of our numerical study are consistent with the algebraic (analytic) approach to explaining the Sun’s dipole moment evolution. Our results are relevant for understanding how anomalous active regions modulate the Sun’s large-scale dipole moment buildup and its reversal timing within the framework of the Babcock–Leighton dynamo mechanism—now believed to be the primary source of solar cycle variations.