Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes Research Articles

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia

Weather shocks and exchange rate flexibility

AbstractThis paper assesses the stabilization properties of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes and aims to answer this research question: Does greater exchange rate flexibility help an economy's adjustment to weather shocks? To address this question, the impact of weather shocks on real per capita GDP growth is quantified under the two alternative exchange rate regimes. We find that although weather shocks are generally detrimental to per capita income growth, the impact is less severe under flexible exchange rate regimes. Moreover, the medium‐term adverse growth impact of a 1°C increase in temperature under a pegged regime is about −1.4 percentage points on average, while under a flexible regime, the impact is less than one half that amount (−0.6 percentage point). This finding bolsters the idea that exchange rate flexibility not only helps mitigate the initial impact of the shock but also promotes a faster recovery. Importantly, there is evidence of nonlinear effects, whereby greater exchange rate flexibility can be more beneficial for EMDCs with hotter climates. In terms of mechanisms, our findings suggest that the depreciation of the nominal exchange rate under a flexible regime supports real export growth. In contrast to standard theoretical predictions, we find that countercyclical fiscal policy may not be effective under pegged regimes amid high debt, highlighting the importance of the policy mix and precautionary (fiscal) buffers.

Book Review: Regional Integration in West Africa: Is There a Role for a Single Currency?

Illenin O. Kondo of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis reviews “Regional Integration in West Africa: Is There a Role for a Single Currency?” by Eswar S. Prasad and Vera Songwe. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Presents an evaluation of alternative exchange rate regimes and their relative benefits and complexities given the structure of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region, discussing the institutional framework and broader aspects of economic and political integration required to underpin a stable and durable currency union.”

Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies

We study how monetary policy affects the asymmetric effects of globalization. To this end, we build an open-economy heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model (HANK), in which households differ in their income, wealth, and real and financial integration with international markets. We use the model to reassess classic questions in international macroeconomics, but from a distributional perspective: What are the international spillovers of policies and shocks, how do alternative exchange-rate regimes compare, and what are the implications for monetary policy of the international price system. Our results indicate the presence of a trade-off between aggregate stabilization and inequality in consumption responses to external shocks. The asymmetric effects of globalization can be smaller for economies with higher international integration.

Testing the \u2018Fear of Floating\u2019 Hypothesis: A Statistical Analysis for Eight African Countries

This paper revisits the fear of floating hypotheses for eight African countries from the collapse of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system in the early 1970s up until December 2017. This long period of calendar time allows us to extend previous studies by examining the fear of floating hypotheses in two distinct ways. First, we look at a set of descriptive statistics to compare the degree of exchange rate flexibility under alternative de jure exchange rate regimes. We find no statistical difference between exchange volatility between declared floaters and fixers, but greater reserve volatility between the floaters, which is suggestive of fear of floating. Second, we use a non-linear, threshold VAR model, estimated for each country, to test for a relationship between exchange rate changes and reserve changes. The results suggest some evidence of a fear of floating for countries which have declared a de jure floating regime, with the regime-dependent impulse responses indicating that exchange rate appreciation due to positive reserve shocks is more prevalent in the high reserve regimes, indicative that level of foreign reserves available are important for their exchange rate policies. In general, although the countries with de jure floating regimes have a lower threshold than those with pegged regimes, reserves adjust by more than the exchange rates showing a fear of floating.

Remittances, Output, and Exchange Rate Regimes: Theory with an Application to Latin America

Immigrant remittances have a broad effect on the receiving economies. We show this impact on the main macroeconomic aggregates is dependent on the policy arrangements in place that manage capital flows. We look at remittance inflows in a small open economy to examine their influence on output under alternative exchange rate regimes. Using a simple stochastic limited participation model, we are able to reproduce dynamics consistent with the empirical literature. We find that the dynamics of labor, inflation, and output are dependent on the parameterization of the utility function and on the monetary rule governing the evolution of the interest rate and in particular with respect to the response of interest rates to exchange rate movements. We find that the initial drop of output resulting from a remittances shock is similar under alternative exchange rate regimes, but the subsequent recovery of output is faster and stronger under more flexible exchange rate regimes. We provide suggestive empirical evidence from a panel Vector Autoregression specification for 17 Latin American countries that corroborates our results.

Exchange rate regimes in a liquidity trap

Using several specifications of a two-sector two-country DSGE model, this paper studies the performance of alternative exchange rate regimes in a liquidity trap caused by a large deflationary shock that pushes the nominal interest rate to its lower bound. We show that, contrary to common belief during the recent Euro crisis, the currency union can outperform the independent floating regime in dealing with the duration and depth of a liquidity trap. Although the welfare effects of the liquidity trap are conditional upon assumptions regarding export price setting and financial market structures, we find that the currency union welfare-dominates the independent floating for a plausible model with local currency pricing and incomplete asset markets. Targeting the exchange rate as a monetary policy rule allows for an independent policy to outperform the monetary union, highlighting the role of the exchange rate regime choice as a preventive strategy to address the adverse effects of deflationary and recessionary shocks.

South Africa’s Trade Performance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

This study examined the effect exchange rates have on import and export volumes under alternative exchange rate policies adopted in South Africa over the period 1960 to 2017. Using quarterly time series data for the stated period, a log-linear error correction model is employed to estimate the country’s export and import elasticities, taking into account Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the real price of exports, the real price of imports and real exchange rates. Using the freely floating exchange rate regime as the base period, the study concluded that both export and import volumes are lower under a system of fixed exchange rates. Export and import volumes were also found to be lower under the dual exchange rate regime, relative to the freely floating exchange rate regime. In accordance with export-led growth strategies, exports were found to be higher and imports lower under a managed floating exchange rate regime. It is therefore recommended that South Africa revert to a more managed exchange rate regime, until the South African economy is developed to accommodate a freely floating exchange rate regime.

South Africa’s Trade Performance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

This study examined the effect exchange rates have on import and export volumes under alternative exchange rate policies adopted in South Africa over the period 1960 to 2017. Using quarterly time series data for the stated period, a log-linear error correction model is employed to estimate the country’s export and import elasticities, taking into account Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the real price of exports, the real price of imports and real exchange rates. Using the freely floating exchange rate regime as the base period, the study concluded that both export and import volumes are lower under a system of fixed exchange rates. Export and import volumes were also found to be lower under the dual exchange rate regime, relative to the freely floating exchange rate regime. In accordance with export-led growth strategies, exports were found to be higher and imports lower under a managed floating exchange rate regime. It is therefore recommended that South Africa revert to a more managed exchange rate regime, until the South African economy is developed to accommodate a freely floating exchange rate regime.

THE SIZE OF FISCAL MULTIPLIERS AND THE STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

Implementing fiscal programs during monetary policy expansions seems to improve significantly their economic stimulus. We find this result by estimating the effect of government consumption shocks on gross domestic product (GDP) using a panel of 23 developing economies. Our goal is to better understand the reasons for the low fiscal multipliers found in the literature by performing estimations for alternative exchange rate regimes, business‐cycle phases, and monetary policy stances. In addition, we perform counterfactual simulations to analyze the possible gains from fiscal‐monetary policy coordination. Our results also show lower multipliers in developing economies with flexible regimes, especially during economic slowdowns. (JEL E62, E63, F32)

Evaluating the role of capital controls and monetary policy in emerging market crises

This paper explores the interactive role of optimal monetary policy and capital controls in dealing with ‘sudden-stop’ financial crises in emerging market economies. The model features collateral constraints embedding pecuniary externalities, as well as nominal rigidities in prices and wages. We explore the role of policy commitment and macro-prudential motives in the design of optimal monetary and capital market responses to crises, under alternative exchange rate regimes. We find that policy commitment is very important under flexible exchange rates, but commitment (to the path of capital taxes) is only of minor benefit under an exchange rate peg. As regards macro-prudential policy, we find the exact opposite. Under floating exchange rates, the optimal policy has almost no macro-prudential elements. On the other hand, when authorities are constrained by an exchange rate peg, macro-prudential policy is used aggressively as part of an optimal policy framework. An important additional finding is that the direction of capital controls is different under a fixed relative to a flexible exchange rate. With flexible exchange rates, policy makers impose inflow taxes immediately at the onset of a crisis. Under pegged exchange rates, they will impose capital inflow subsidies.

Adjustment to negative price shocks by a commodity exporting economy: Does exchange rate flexibility resolve a balance of payments crisis?

Negative commodity price shocks can induce balance of payments crises in resource dependent economies. Governments often react by intervening against currency depreciation as, for example, in the case of Papua New Guinea in response to the commodity price shocks of 2014. We develop an original theoretical model to analyze the balance of payments impact of a commodity price shock under alternative exchange rate regimes: a flexible rate regime and a fixed rate regime with foreign exchange rationing. The balance of payments consequences are shown to depend on the elasticity of exports and imports with respect to the exchange rate. For the Papua New Guinea case, we estimate export elasticities for a variety of commodities (gold, silver, copper, oil, coffee, cocoa, copra, copra oil, palm oil, rubber, tea, logs, and marine products) as well as for imports. The results indicate that the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied for this resource-rich economy, implying that exchange rate flexibility may be practicable. We implement our calibrated model to conduct a counter-factual simulation and find that with a flexible exchange rate, foreign reserves would have been 20 percent higher three years after the shock than they were under the actual policy of exchange rate stabilization. In light of this, we argue the merits of greater exchange rate flexibility.

Does Regime Choice Affect Exchange Rate Volatility-Economic Growth Link? An Application of Panel-VAR Approach

ABSTRACTIn recent years, numerous studies demonstrated that the effect of exchange rate regimes on economic growth is influenced by several factors. However, the literature rarely takes into account the possible costs associated with improving institutional quality on the choice of exchange systems and the analysis of the effects of shocks in the case of each type of regime. Throughout this research, we analyze the extent of bidirectional shocks according to each regime and compare the shock effects accordingly. The results show that the real exchange rate is less volatile and the shock effect is lower in countries that adopt a fixed exchange rate regime while the exchange rate is more volatile and the shock is higher in countries that adopt a flexible exchange rate regime. To show the effect and persistence of shocks, we carried out a Panel-VAR regression completed by impulse response functions, VAR decomposition and Granger causality tests for 20 countries adopting the first type of exchange regime compared with 20 countries practicing an alternative exchange rate regime in the period from 1996 to 2012.

Oil dependency and exchange rate regimes in Arab oil economies: time to rethink the paradigm

This study examines implications of the current exchange rate regimes on the macroeconomic and growth performance of five Arab oil-producing countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Sudan, Algeria and Yemen. The study evaluates alternative exchange rate regime policy options towards exploring an optimal exit strategy to ensure successful transition to more sustainable exchange rate regime, especially in the fixed regime economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This study proposes the adoption of a transparent broad basket, band and crawl (BBC) regime by the Arab oil economies in order to provide a better alternative to the existing fixed pegs or dirty floats. However, it is imperative to note that, the timing of the exit from the current regime and the extent of institutional development and market sophistications are very critical to successful transition to more sustainable regime that would provide a larger scope for counter-cyclical policies and diversification in these economies.

Private Sector Profitability and Depreciation Pressure within Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Nigeria

I find evidence for persistence in depreciation related currency pressure in the Naira to US$ exchange rate with persistence exacerbated by private sector profitability. The empirical evidence shows the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reins in depreciation pressure induced within the private sector using buyback yields on Treasury Bills. Given the resultant appreciation of the Naira limits profitability within the private sector, this somewhat reactionary policy to exchange rate management simultaneously enables the CBN to manage investment risk within Nigeria's banking sector. My findings indicate managed floating or alternative hybrid exchange rate regimes can be especially appropriate in countries within which currency values erode with private sector profitability. In such countries, my findings indicate it is advantageous for Central Banks to be responsible for both bank regulation and monetary policy.

The Choice of Exchange-rate Regime in the Framework of New Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper extends the model setup of Devereux and Engel (1998) to investigate how consumption home bias, capital mobility, and price-setting behavior affect the consumption volatility, expected level of consumption, and the welfare performance under alternative exchange rate regimes for a country facing foreign monetary shock. The paper then discusses the issue of the choice of exchange rate regime. According to the analysis of theoretical derivation and simulation, the following conclusions are made. First, the variance of domestic consumption is lowest under a floating exchange rate with pricing-to-market (PTM model for short), and the variance of consumption under floating exchange rate with producer-currency pricing (the PCP model for short) depends on the degree of capital mobility, the share of tradable goods, and the degree of home bias. Secondly, the fixed exchange rate (FER) will dominate the floating exchange rate in terms of the expected level of consumption. Thirdly, from the perspective of welfare performance, a floating exchange rate with pricing-to-market (PTM model) is preferable to a fixed exchange rate. A fixed exchange rate dominates a floating exchange rate with producer-currency pricing (PCP model), and the lower degree of capital mobility induces a higher welfare under fixed exchange rate but a lower welfare under PTM and PCP models.

Exchange rate regimes and asset prices

We study the implications of alternative exchange rate regimes for asset prices in a portfolio balance model motivated by the recent US-China experience. We establish that asset price responses to various shocks differ across a flexible regime and a -unilateral- peg but the differences for most shocks tend to be rather small. Moreover, while both monetary and public debt expansions have inflationary effects on equity prices, the latter's impact is stronger under a flexible exchange rate regime. These two findings suggest that a flexible USD/rimni rate would not have limited the recent asset price inflation in the US.

Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe

In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare econometrically the performance of these two regimes in terms of the relationship between inflation, output growth, nominal and real uncertainties from 2000 till now. In other words, we test the hypothesis of non-neutrality of monetary and exchange rate regimes with respect to these connections. In a whole, the empirical results do not allow us to judge which monetary regime is more appropriate and reasonable to assume. EU enlargement is one of the possible explanations for the numbing of the differences and the lack of coherence between the two regimes in terms of inflation, growth and their uncertainties

Fiscal Policy, Monetary Regimes and Current Account Dynamics

AbstractFor the individual European Monetary Union (EMU) members fiscal policy has gained in importance owing to the loss of monetary policy as an autonomous policy instrument. Based on a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with fiscal feedback rules, we analyze the dynamic macroeconomic response in particular of the current account under alternative exchange rate regimes. Our results indicate that entry into monetary union makes the economy more vulnerable to a productivity shock and leads to higher variability of the current account. For a risk premium shock, an entry into EMU implies lower variability of most macroeconomic variables, but a higher persistence in the adjustment process of the current account. For both shocks, a countercyclical fiscal response to the current account is more stabilizing for most macroeconomic variables than a conventional countercyclical response to output. Stabilizing the current account comes at the price of higher variability of output in the short‐run, however.

Ancorare, fluttuare o abbandonare la nave:i regimi valutari dei paesi candidati all’Unione Europea (Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for the Accession Countries)

The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East European accession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. The exchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two years before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERM II membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERM II membership for the accession countries would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory. JEL Codes: F33, P33, F15 Keywords: EMU, EU, Exchange Rates