Alcohol Consumption In Australia Research Articles

The efficient intervention to young Australian adults of risky alcohol consumption: SMART recovery or alcoholics anonymous

Abstract. Risky Alcohol consumption arouses the large attention of the public because of its social burden and further side effects on young people in Australia. Alcoholics Anonymous is an older and better-known peer-led intervention against risky alcohol consumption depending on the religion in Australia. Since participants are difficult to adhere to, and the successful withdrawal rate is affected by many factors, such as attendance, adherence, etc., many people have questioned the effectiveness of Alcoholics Anonymous. This paper presents another intervention, SMART Recovery, to compare the effectiveness, acceptability, side effect and further impact to find a better way for young people living with risky alcohol consumption in Australia. Although Alcoholics Anonymous enjoys a distinct advantage of a longer history and wider acceptance, the effectiveness of SMART Recovery is preferable depending on its professional implementation, precision, causality of effectiveness and fidelity. Despite of the data and research on attendance and adherence of SMART Recovery is less, the low acceptability of Alcoholics Anonymous has indicated the preponderance of SMART Recovery, especially for nonreligious. Meanwhile, more professional treatment of side effects and longer lasting positive effects for young people living with RAC are other advantages of SMART Recovery. SMART Recovery is a more effective intervention for young people living with RAC rather than Alcoholics Anonymous.

Examining how the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic affected alcohol use in different socio-demographic groups in an Australian representative longitudinal sample.

Research examining how alcohol consumption changed across different socio-demographic groups during the pandemic has largely relied upon convenience samples recruited after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to measure whether the pandemic shifted alcohol consumption in different gender, age and income groups in Australia. This was a longitudinal study using four waves (2017-20) of the annual Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to compare pre-pandemic consumption (2017-19) with consumption in 2020. A total of 11 636 participants in Australia aged 15 years and older took part. Participants were asked annually about their alcohol consumption, demographics and income. There was a statistically significant increase in alcohol consumption during the first year of the pandemic [incident rate ratio (IRR) = 1.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1, 1.1], largely driven by changes in drinking frequency. We found a significant difference in consumption change from pre-COVID-19 to during COVID-19 for participants aged under 55 years compared with those aged over 55 years. In addition, participants aged 15-34 reported less alcohol consumption during the pandemic than those aged 35 years and older. No significant differences were identified across gender and income groups. Alcohol consumption in Australia increased during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Survey participants aged 55 years and over seemed to be the least impacted by the public health measures introduced during the pandemic, such as the closure of licensed premises.

Seven-years of alcohol consumption in Australia by wastewater analysis: Exploring patterns by remoteness and socioeconomic factors

BackgroundWastewater analysis provides a complementary measure of alcohol use in whole communities. We assessed absolute differences and temporal trends in alcohol consumption by degree of remoteness and socioeconomics indicators in Australia from 2016 to 2023. MethodsAlcohol consumption estimates from 50 wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) in the Australian National Wastewater Drug Monitoring Program were used. Trends were analysed based on 1) site remoteness: Major Cities, Inner Regional and a combined remoteness category of Outer Regional and Remote, and 2) using two socioeconomic indexes from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) relating to advantage and disadvantage for Income, education, occupation, and housing. ResultsConsumption estimates were similar for Major Cities and Inner Regional areas (14.3 and 14.4L/day/1000 people), but significantly higher in Outer Regional and Remote sites (18.6L/day/1000 people). Consumption was decreasing in Major cities by 4.5% annually, Inner Regional by 2.4%, and 3.5% in the combined Outer Regional and Remote category. Consumption estimates were higher in socioeconomically advantaged quartiles than those of lower advantage (0%-25% mean = 13.0, 75%-100% mean = 17.4). Consumption in all quartiles decreased significantly over the 7 year period with annual rates of decrease of 0.9%, 3.7%, 3.6%, and 3.0% for the lowest to highest quartile, respectively. ConclusionsDeclines in Australian alcohol consumption have been steeper in large urban areas than regional and remote areas. There were smaller annual decreases in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. If continued, these trends may increase Australian health inequalities. Policy and prevention work should be appropriately targeted to produce more equitable long-term outcomes.

How did COVID-19 restrictions impact alcohol consumption in Australia? A longitudinal study.

The state of Victoria experienced more stringent public health measures than other Australian states during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigated how these public health measures impacted: (i) total alcohol consumption; (ii) location-specific consumption; and (iii) consumption among different pre-pandemic drinking groups, in Victoria compared to the rest of Australia during the first year of the pandemic. A longitudinal study with six survey waves was conducted between April and December 2020. A total of 775 adults completed data on alcohol use, including detailed consumption location information. Based on their 2019 consumption, participants were classified into low, moderate or high-risk groups. Data were analysed descriptively. There was no difference in total alcohol consumption from 2019 levels among Victorians and those from the other Australian states when Victoria was the only state in lockdown. Location-specific consumption was relatively similar for Victoria and the rest of Australia, with an increase in home drinking, and a decrease in consumption in someone else's home, licensed premises and public spaces during lockdown compared with 2019. Participants in the high-risk group reported a reduction of two standard drinks per day in November 2020 compared with 2019. In contrast, consumption remained relatively stable for participants in the low and moderate-risk groups once accounting for regression to the mean. Contrary to expectations, restrictions on licensed premises appeared to impact high-risk drinkers more than low and moderate-risk drinkers. Reducing availability of on-premise alcohol may be an effective way to reduce consumption in heavier drinkers.

Assessing the effects of COVID-19 restrictions on alcohol consumption in Melbourne, Australia using high-resolution wastewater sampling

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions on alcohol consumption in Australia remains unclear. High-resolution daily samples from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) which served one of the largest cities in Australia, Melbourne, were analysed for temporal trends in alcohol consumption under extended periods of COVID-19 restrictions in 2020. Melbourne experienced two major lockdowns in 2020, which divided the year of 2020 into five periods (pre-lockdown, first lockdown, between lockdown, second lockdown and post second-lockdown). In this study, daily sampling identified shifts in alcohol consumption during different periods of restrictions. Alcohol consumption in the first lockdown period, when bars closed and social and sports events ceased, was lower than pre-lockdown period. However, alcohol consumption was higher in the second lockdown period than the previous lockdown period. There were spikes in alcohol consumption at the start and end of each lockdown (except for post lockdown). For most of 2020, the usual weekday-weekend variations in alcohol consumption were less evident but there was a significant difference in alcohol consumption between weekdays and weekends after the second lockdown. This suggests that drinking patterns eventually returned to normal after the end of the second lockdown. This study demonstrates the usefulness of high-resolution wastewater sampling in evaluating the effects on alcohol consumption of social interventions in specific temporal locations.

Declines in alcohol consumption in Australia: some challenges to the theory of collectivity.

There is significant debate about whether or not changes in per-capita alcohol consumption occur collectively across the entire distribution of drinking. This study used data from a decade of declining drinking in Australia to test the collectivity of drinking trends. Repeated cross-sectional surveys (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019), analysed with quantile regression techniques assessing trends in drinking for 20 quantile groups. Australia. A general population sample (total n = 85 891; males = 39 182, females = 46 709) aged 14 years and over. Past-year volume of alcohol consumed was measured using standard graduated frequency survey questions. Models were stratified by sex and age group. Throughout the whole population, alcohol consumption had declined in all percentile groups, with the largest proportional declines evident for light and moderate drinkers [e.g. drinkers in the 25th percentile declined by 32.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -41.6, -22.3% per wave]. Broadly collective declines were also found for younger men and women with significant declines in every percentile group, but older groups showed some evidence of polarization. For example, women aged 45-64 years significantly increased their consumption (2.9% per wave, 95% CI = 0.3-5.5%), while consumption for those in the 25th percentile fell significantly (-16.7%, 95% CI = -27.6, -4.2%). The declines in Australian drinking since 2010 have included important deviations from the collectivity predicted by Skog's influential theory of collectivity of drinking, with markedly different patterns evident among different demographic groups.

Modelling the effects of alcohol pricing policies on alcohol consumption in subpopulations in Australia.

To model the effects of a range of alcohol pricing policies on alcohol consumption in subpopulation groups (e.g. alcohol consumption pattern, and age and income groups) in Australia. We used estimated price elasticities to model the effects of proposed pricing policies on consumption for 11 beverage categories among subpopulation groups. Australia. A total of 1789 adults (16+ years) who reported they purchased and consumed alcohol in the 2013 Australian International Alcohol Control Study, an adult population survey. Mean and percentage changes in alcohol consumption were estimated for each scenario across subgroups. The policy scenarios evaluated included: (1) increasing the excise rate 10% for all off-premise beverages; (2) replacing the wine equalization tax with a volumetric excise rate equal to the current spirits tax rate; (3) applying a uniform excise tax rate to all beverages equal to the current sprits tax rate and a 10 or 20% increase in it; and(4) introducing a minimum unit price (MUP) on all beverages categories at $1.00, 1.30 or 1.50. The effects of different tax and MUP policies varied greatly across different subgroups. The effects of the MUP policy on alcohol consumption increased rapidly in the range from $1.00 to $1.50. Applying a uniform tax rate across all beverages equal to current spirits tax rate, or a 10 or 20% increase beyond that, could generate large reductions in overall alcohol consumption in Australia. Compared with the uniform tax rate with or without further tax increase, introducing a MUP at $1.30 or $1.50 could reduce consumption particularly among harmful drinkers and lower-income drinkers, with comparatively smaller impacts on moderate and higher-income drinkers. Both uniform excise tax and minimum unit price policies are predicted to reduce alcohol consumption in Australia. Minimum unit price policies are predicted to have a greater impact on drinking among harmful drinkers than moderate drinkers.

Examining Australia's heaviest drinkers

ObjectiveThis study examined the distribution of alcohol consumption in Australia, identifying the heaviest drinking 10% of the population and examining their sociodemographic characteristics and their alcohol consumption and purchasing practices. MethodsData came from the 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey and the 2013 International Alcohol Control Study. The heaviest drinking 10% of the population identified based on estimates of annual alcohol consumption. Logistic regression was then used to assess the factors that distinguished these heaviest drinkers from the rest of the drinking population. ResultsThe heaviest drinking 10% of the population consumed 54.4% of all alcohol consumed. These heavy drinkers were more likely to be men and to live in regional and remote areas. They were more likely to drink cask wine and full‐strength beer and to purchase cheaper alcohol than other drinkers. ConclusionsAustralian alcohol consumption is heavily skewed. Alcohol consumption practices appear to differentiate the heaviest drinkers from others more clearly than sociodemographic factors. Implications for public healthPublic health interventions that reduce drinking among the heaviest 10% of drinkers in Australia have the potential to markedly reduce per‐capita consumption and reduce alcohol‐related harm. Interventions focused on cheap alcohol may be effective with these drinkers.

The impact of reducing alcohol consumption in Australia: An estimate of the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers 2013-2037.

The International Agency for Research on Cancer first concluded that alcohol causes cancer in humans in 1988. The World Cancer Research Fund has declared that alcohol causes cancer of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus (squamous cell carcinoma), female breast, colon, rectum, stomach and liver. It recommended that alcohol be avoided altogether to prevent cancer. We aimed to quantify the impact of reducing alcohol consumption on future cancer incidence in Australia. We used PREVENT 3.01 simulation modelling software to estimate the proportion of cancers that could potentially be prevented over a 25-year period under two hypothetical intervention scenarios and two latency periods (20 and 30 years). Under a scenario where alcohol consumption abruptly ceases, we estimated up to 4% of alcohol-related cancers could be avoided over a 25-year period (~49,500 cancers, depending on assumed latency). If the maximum consumption of all Australian adults was ≤20 g/day (~two Australian standard drinks), up to 2% of alcohol-related cancers could be avoided (~29,600 cancers). The maximum proportions were higher for men (6% for no alcohol consumption; 5% for ≤20 g/day) than women (3%; 1%). The proportion avoidable was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (17% no alcohol consumption; 9% ≤20 g/day), followed by cancers of the oral cavity (12%; 5%) and pharynx (11%; 5%). The cancer sites with the highest numbers of potentially avoidable cases were colon in men (11,500; 9,900) and breast in women (14,400; 4,100). Successful interventions to reduce alcohol intake could lead to significant reductions in cancer incidence.

Patterns in Reduction or Cessation of Drinking in Australia (2001-2013) and Motivation for Change.

This paper examines: (a) change over time (2001-2013) in recently reducing or ceasing drinking in the Australian population and (b) the reasons given for reducing or ceasing drinking in the most recent survey (2013); stratified by sex and age group. Rates of reducing and ceasing drinking increased between 2001 and 2013 in Australia. Young people were more likely to modify drinking due to lifestyle and enjoyment reasons; older groups were more likely to report health reasons. These trends contribute to the broader context of declining alcohol consumption in Australia. Data are from five waves of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (N = 119,397). Logistic regression models with interaction terms were used to identify a shift in sex or age over time in predicting reduction or cessation of drinking and to predict motivations for reducing or ceasing drinking by sex and age. Reports of recently reducing the quantity or frequency of drinking increased from 2001 to 2007 and remained stable between 2007 and 2013. There was a steady increase in the number of Australians reporting recently ceasing drinking from 2001 to 2013, with a significant effect for age (younger groups more likely than older groups to cease drinking in the past two waves). Reasons for reducing or ceasing drinking varied by age, with older people more likely to report health reasons and younger people more likely to report lifestyle reasons or enjoyment. Increases over time in reports of reduction or cessation of drinking due to health, lifestyle, social and enjoyment reasons suggest that the social position of alcohol in Australia may be shifting, particularly among young people.

Social marketing and community mobilisation to reduce underage alcohol consumption in Australia: A cluster randomised community trial

Background and aimsIn many countries adolescent alcohol use is a major health problem. To supplement national policies, it is important to trial community interventions as a potential strategy to prevent adolescent alcohol use. MethodsThis study evaluated a multicomponent community intervention that included community mobilisation, social marketing, and the monitoring of alcohol sales to minors. Evaluation was a clustered randomised trial design with 14 intervention and 14 control communities. Prior to randomisation, communities were matched on socioeconomic status and location. Intervention communities were not blinded. Participants3545 Year 8 students (M = 12 years) were surveyed at baseline from 75 schools; 3377 students were surveyed post intervention in 2013 from 54 schools. OutcomesIt was hypothesised that the primary outcome, individual alcohol consumption in last 30 days, after the intervention would be 15% lower in intervention communities. Secondary outcomes were consumption in the past year and intention not to drink before age 18. ResultsThe intervention communities showed larger relative reductions compared to the controls in last 30-day consumption and past year (10%), but not significantly different. A significantly lower proportion of participants in the intervention community (63%), compared to the controls (71%), reported intending to drink before 18 years old. Subgroup analysis identified regional and state differences for some secondary measures. ConclusionsIntervention assignment was associated with lower adolescent intention to drink before the age of 18. However, more intensive and longer-term intervention may be required to measure significant differences in behaviour change.Trial registration: ACTRN12612000384853.Protocol: Rowland B, Toumbourou JW, Osborn A, et al. BMJ Open 2013;3:e002423. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002423

Measuring spatial and temporal trends of nicotine and alcohol consumption in Australia using wastewater-based epidemiology.

Tobacco and alcohol consumption remain priority public health issues world-wide. As participation in population-based surveys has fallen, it is increasingly challenging to estimate accurately the prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an alternative approach for estimating substance use at the population level that does not rely upon survey participation. This study examined spatio-temporal patterns in nicotine (a proxy for tobacco) and alcohol consumption in the Australian population via WBE. Daily wastewater samples (n=164) were collected at 18 selected wastewater treatment plants across Australia, covering approximately 45% of the total population. Nicotine and alcohol metabolites in the samples were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Daily consumption of nicotine and alcohol and its associated uncertainty were computed using Monte Carlo simulations. Nation-wide daily average and weekly consumption of these two substances were extrapolated using ordinary least squares and mixed-effect models. Nicotine and alcohol consumption was observed in all communities. Consumption of these substances in rural towns was three to four times higher than in urban communities. The spatial consumption pattern of these substances was consistent across the monitoring periods in 2014-15. Nicotine metabolites significantly reduced by 14-25% (P=0.001-0.008) (2014-15) in some catchments. Alcohol consumption remained constant over the studied periods. Strong weekly consumption patterns were observed for alcohol but not nicotine. Nation-wide, the daily average consumption per person (aged 15-79years) was estimated at approximately 2.5 cigarettes and 1.3-2.0 standard drinks (weekday-weekend) of alcohol. These estimates were close to the sale figure and apparent consumption, respectively. Wastewater-based epidemiology is a feasible method for objectively evaluating the geographic, temporal and weekly profiles of nicotine and alcohol consumption in different communities nationally.

Changing Attitudes to Alcohol in Australia.

Per-capita alcohol consumption in Australia increased between 2001 and 2007 and has subsequently declined, particularly for young people over this period. We examine trends in general attitudes to alcohol and to perceptions of risk from alcohol consumption to assess whether consumption trends have been mirrored by changing ideas about alcohol. We also examine whether trends in attitudes vary across sociodemographic subgroups. Data are from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (n = 127,916), 2001-2013. To examine trends in attitudes to alcohol and perceptions of risk related to alcohol, logistic regression was used to assess changes over time, with interaction analyses used to explore whether changing attitudes have been consistent across sociodemographic subgroups. There were statistically significant increases in the percentage of the population naming excessive alcohol consumption as the most serious drug problem in Australia (22.6% in 2001 to 43.6% in 2013, p < .001), naming alcohol as the drug that causes the most deaths (22.7% in 2001 to 34.2% in 2013, p < .001), and suggesting thresholds for low-risk drinking below two drinks per day for men (22.4% in 2001 to 33.0% in 2013, p < .001) and women (54.4% in 2001 to 64.8% in 2013, p < .001). These trends were consistent across all sociodemographic subgroups. Australian attitudes to alcohol became more conservative between 2001 and 2013. These trends may partly explain the decline in youth drinking observed over the same period, with young people's consumption potentially more likely to be affected by growing social concern about alcohol, although shifts in attitudes occurred even while consumption was increasing.

Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures.

Survey data remain a crucial means for monitoring alcohol consumption, but there has been limited work done to ensure that surveys adequately capture changes in per-capita consumption in Australia. In this study, we explore how trends in consumption from two major Australian surveys compare with an official measure of per-capita consumption between 2001 and 2014 and examine age-specific trends in drinking. Data were from five waves of the cross-sectional National Health Survey (total n=113279) and 12 waves of the longitudinal Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Study (average n=12347). Overall and age-specific estimates of annual alcohol consumption were derived and compared with official per-capita consumption and previous analyses of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey. In terms of overall consumption, both surveys broadly reflected trends in per-capita consumption, especially the decline that has been observed since 2007/2008. Age-specific trends were broadly similar, with the recent decline in consumption clearly concentrated among teenagers and young adults. The main Australian monitoring surveys remain useful monitoring tools for alcohol consumption in Australia. There is consistent evidence that the recent declines in Australian per-capita consumption have been driven by sharp falls in drinking among young people, a trend that requires further study. [Livingston M, Callinan S, Raninen J, Pennay A, Dietze PM. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000].

Decreasing prevalence of social drinkers in Australia

IntroductionThere has been a recent decrease in population level alcohol consumption in Australia, particularly in young people. Whether this is due to increasing abstinence or a shift in the way people think about alcohol is not known. The aim of this study is to investigate trends in self-identification of drinker types in Australia from 2001 to 2013 in light of shifting patterns of alcohol consumption in Australia. MethodsFive waves of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey from 2001 to 2013 (N=118,416) were used to assess trends in self-identification as a drinker type (non-, ex-, occasional, light, social, heavy and binge drinker). Consumption patterns and demographics of the self-identified groups were also examined. ResultsThe pattern of self-identification has mostly remained steady over time. The two exceptions to this are a decrease in identification as a social drinker (28% to 22%) and a corresponding increase in identification as a non-drinker (from 19% to 27%). There are few changes over time in the demographic make-up of, or consumption patterns in, the social drinker category with the exception of those over 50, who continue to identify as social drinkers at the same rate. ConclusionThe recent increase in abstinence in Australia seems to be matched by a corresponding decrease in self-identified social drinkers, particularly among those under 50. This indicates that the decrease in consumption is not occurring in those most likely to experience harms.

Exploring the impact of self-construal and cultural intelligence on alcohol consumption: implications for social marketing

There is enormous cross-cultural variation in alcohol choices and drinking behaviour. Because of the inherent differences in historical drinking culture, as well as differences in alcohol policy globally, similarities and differences in drinking patterns have long been a focus of interest among public health and social marketing researchers. Thus, the purposes of this study are (1) to explore differences between groups (Australian and non-Australian-born respondents) on self-construal, cultural intelligence and alcohol consumption and (2) to investigate the impact of self-construal and cultural intelligence on alcohol consumption in Australia. Data for this study were collected through a large public university in Australia (N = 669). The paper found that people with interdependent self-concept were less likely to drink alcohol than people with independent self-concept and cultural intelligence was not significantly related to hazardous alcohol use, harmful alcohol use and dependence symptoms. Variations between Australian-born and overseas-born groups were evident. Limitations of the current study and an agenda for future research are outlined. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding trends in Australian alcohol consumption-an age-period-cohort model.

To decompose Australian trends in alcohol consumption into their age, period (survey year) and cohort (birth year/generation) components. In particular, we aimed to test whether recent declines in overall consumption have been influenced by reductions in drinking among recently born cohorts. Seven cross-sectional waves of the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey (1995-2013). Age, period and cohort effects were estimated using a linear and logistic cross-classified random-effects models (CCREMs). Australia A total of 124 440 Australians (69 193 females and 55 257 males), aged 14-79 years. Whether or not respondents consumed alcohol in the 12 months prior to the survey and, for those who did, the estimated volume of pure alcohol consumed, derived using standard quantity-frequency survey questions. Controlling for age and period effects, there was significant variation in drinking participation and drinking volume by birth cohort. In particular, male cohorts born between the 1965 and 1974 and female cohorts born between 1955 and 1974 reported higher rates of drinking participation (P < 0.05), while the most recent cohorts (born in the 1990s) had lower rates of participation (P < 0.01). Among drinkers, the most recently born cohort also had sharply lower average consumption volumes than older cohorts for both men and women (P < 0.01). Recent birth cohorts (born between 1995 and 1999) in Australia report significantly lower rates of both drinking participation and drinking volume than previous cohorts, controlling for their age distribution and overall changes in population drinking. These findings suggest that the recent decline in alcohol consumption in Australia has been driven by declines in drinking among these recently born cohorts. These trends are consistent with international shifts in youth drinking.

National survey data can be used to measure trends in population alcohol consumption in Australia

ObjectivesTo assess the accuracy of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS) at capturing trends in alcohol consumption at the population level, using apparent per capita alcohol consumption as a benchmark. MethodsData was from five waves of the NDSHS (2001–2013), with estimates of per capita alcohol consumption derived from the detailed graduated frequency alcohol questions. Trends are compared with per capita measures, and trends in both series compared. Further analyses explore whether recent trends in consumption are consistent across age groups. ResultsThe NDSHS survey estimates still track apparent consumption well, which increases between 2001 and 2007 and then declines to 2013. Since 2007, survey estimates show a 10.5% decline in per capita alcohol consumption, compared with 8.9% in ABS data. Two‐thirds of the decline came from reductions in drinking among respondents under 30. ConclusionsNDSHS data provide reasonably accurate estimates of trends in Australian population alcohol consumption. Survey data are critical to understanding the composition of overarching trends, with these analyses demonstrating substantial variation by age. ImplicationsSurvey data are a crucial tool in monitoring Australian alcohol consumption, despite their inherent limitations.

The Dynamic Effects of Changes in Prices and Affordability on Alcohol Consumption: An Impulse Response Analysis.

To investigate how changes in alcohol price and affordability are related to aggregate level alcohol consumption in Australia to help to inform effective price and tax policy to influence consumption. Annual time series data between 1974 and 2012 on price and per-capita consumption for beer, wine and spirits and average weekly income were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Using a Vector Autoregressive model and impulse response analysis, the dynamic responses of alcohol consumption to changes in alcohol prices and affordability were estimated. Alcohol consumption in Australia was negatively associated with alcohol price and positively associated with the affordability of alcohol. The results of the impulse response analysis suggest that a 10% increase in the alcohol price was associated with a 2% decrease in the population-level alcohol consumption in the following year, with further, diminishing, effects up to year 8, leading to an overall 6% reduction in total consumption. In contrast, when alcohol affordability increased, per-capita alcohol consumption increased over the following 6 years. Our findings suggest that increasing alcohol prices or taxes can help to reduce alcohol consumption at the population level in Australia. However, the impact of affordability in our findings highlights that pricing policies need to consider increases in income to ensure effectiveness. Alcohol price policy should only cautiously focus on individual beverage types, because increasing the price of one beverage generally leads to an increase in consumption of substitutes.

Alcohol Consumption and Liver Disease in Australia: A Time Series Analysis of the Period 1935–2006

The aim of the study was to examine for Australia whether the link between population alcohol consumption and liver disease mortality varies over time, using 71 years of data. Overall and gender-specific rates of liver disease mortality were analysed in relation to total alcohol consumption as well as for different beverage types by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series methods. Separate models were developed for the entire time period and for two sub-periods (1935-1975, 1976-2006). A 1-l increase in adult per capita consumption of pure alcohol led to a rise of ∼10% in overall liver disease mortality rates and a 11 and 9% increase in female and male liver disease mortality, respectively. The strength of the relationship between per capita consumption and liver disease mortality diminished over time. Spirits consumption was found to be the main driving factor in liver mortality rates between 1935 and 1975, while beer consumption was found to be the most significant predictor in liver diseases in the last three decades. In a comparative perspective, the effect of per capita alcohol consumption on liver disease in Australia is similar to the USA, Southern and Eastern Europe countries, but weaker than in Canada and western European countries. An increase in per capita alcohol consumption in Australia is likely to lead to an increase in liver disease. Changes in the most important beverage over the study period suggest substantial shifts in drinking patterns and preferences among the heaviest Australian drinkers.