Air Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

Implications of a rapidly thinning ice margin for annual moraine formation at Gornergletscher, Switzerland

Ice-marginal moraines are widely used as indicators of palaeoclimate in mountainous regions, yet the genetic processes of their formation remain incompletely understood. Here, we present new data on the geomorphology and sedimentology of annually formed moraine ridges in the foreland of Gornergletscher, Switzerland, with the aim of reconstructing the processes of their formation, assessing their preservation potential over longer time scales, and evaluating the climatic significance of these terrestrial archives. A specific focus is set on moraine ridges that formed between 2007 and 2019, a period when the glacier front was subject to pronounced retreat and thinning. Four dominant mechanisms of moraine formation could be identified to be operating across the foreland: (I) freeze-on of submarginal sediments to the advancing glacier sole; (II) the formation of ice-cored moraines controlled by the emergence of englacial debris bands on the glacier surface; (III) efficient bulldozing and deformation of pre-existing fluvial or lacustrine sediments by the advancing glacier; and (IV) inefficient bulldozing of these deposits with the incorporation of dead ice into moraine bodies. The spatial distribution of these processes in the foreland depends on a set of climatological, topographical, and glaciological boundary conditions, the most important of which appears to be the slope of the ice margin. The largest and most well-defined moraines can be genetically linked to efficient bulldozing operating along a sufficiently steep glacier front. These moraines frequently form parts of longer, continuous chains and can be used to calculate frontal retreat rates of the glacier through time. Comparing this record of ice retreat with climatic data reveals a statistically significant correlation to annual air temperature anomalies, which is especially strong for the period between 2005 and 2017. Longer series of annual moraines may therefore provide important information about the climatic drivers that govern glacier retreat. However, dead ice is often found to be incorporated into moraine bodies along the present, thin ice margin. Upon melt-out of the ice, the morphologies and internal structures of these moraines are strongly altered, thus limiting their preservation potential over longer timescales. In such a scenario, the morphological record remaining in a deglaciated landscape may be incomplete or entirely lacking. Therefore, we conclude that great care must be taken when interpreting moraine sequences in a palaeoclimatic context.

The role of transient eddies in the intraseasonal reversal of East Asian winter air temperature anomalies

The intraseasonal reversal of wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over East Asia (15°-55°N, 80°-130°E) is becoming a matter of concern. Thus, the predominant features of the reversal mode of SAT anomalies and its relevant dynamical mechanism associated with transient eddies (TEs) are studied by using the Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (MV-EOF) analysis method and the geopotential tendency equation. Results show that the third MV-EOF mode well depicts a colder (warmer) DJ with a warmer (colder) February and is closely linked to an out-of-phase variation in both East Asian Polar Front Jet (EAPJ) and East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ). It is found that synoptic-scale (2.5-8d) and low-frequency (10-90d) TE activities over Eurasia play important roles in the intraseasonal reversal in SAT anomalies by adjusting time-mean flows. A cold DJ in East Asia dynamically corresponds to a strengthened EASJ and weakened EAPJ, while the TE forcing dominated by low-frequency TE vorticity forcing and synoptic-scale TE heating forcing tends to weaken the EASJ and reinforce the EAPJ, unfavorable to the maintenance of cold anomalies over East Asia. However, the characteristics of both synoptic-scale and low-frequency TE activities in February are significantly different from that in DJ. By comparison, the TE forcing is dominated by synoptic-scale TE vorticity forcing and low-frequency TE heating forcing, which makes great contribution to the weakening of EASJ and the enhancement and maintenance of EAPJ, conducive to a weaker East Asian winter monsoon and eventually to a warmer East Asia.

Усовершенствованный динамико-статистический метод прогноза среднемесячной приземной температуры воздуха

The possibility of improving the dynamic statistical method for forecasting monthly air temperature using modern hydrodynamic models and statistical methods in operational practice of the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia is substantiated. The technology for monthly forecasting of surface air temperature anomalies based on the combination of the improved scheme of medium-range forecasts of weather elements for 15 days and the SL-AV model output forecast data for 16–30 days is presented. Forecast skill scores obtained in real time for 326 stations located on the territory of Russia are given. Advantages of the proposed approach are shown, especially in the case of significant air temperature anomalies. The results are supposed to be used in the technology of long-range forecasting at the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia. Keywords: surface air temperature, monthly forecasts, statistical correction, verification

Long-lasting impact of winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Barents-Kara sea ice anomaly in recent decades

In this paper, the long-lasting impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Arctic sea ice is investigated using reanalysis data, with focus on the Barents–Kara (BK) sea where the air-sea-ice response is closely associated with the interdecadal shift in the northern action center of the NAO. A significant negative correlation between the winter NAO and the late autumn BK sea ice has been dominant since the early 2000s, which is in sharp contrast to the extremely weak correlation before the late 20th century. When the northern center of the NAO retreats westward, a prevailing low-level southerly wind anomaly creates significant positive air temperature anomalies over the BK sea, and the induced ocean current strengthens the northward transport of warm sea water, resulting in a positive BK upper-layer ocean temperature anomaly and a negative sea ice anomaly until early spring. Entering summer, the preexisting less-than-normal sea ice causes the amount of solar shortwave radiation absorbed by the upper-layer sea water to significantly increase and thereby continues to warm up the upper layer of sea water and reduce the sea ice. The warmed sea water enables the negative sea ice anomaly to last until late autumn owing to its relatively large specific heat capacity. Thus, the NAO in the previous winter exerts a long-lasting impact on the BK sea ice.

Significant Inverse Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean SST on SIF of Indian Vegetation during the Summer Monsoon Onset Phase

Sea surface temperature (SST) substantially influences the land climate conditions through the co-variability of multiple climate variables, which in turn affect the structural and functional characteristics of terrestrial vegetation. Our study explored the varying responses of vegetation photosynthesis in India to the SST variations in the tropical Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon. To characterise the terrestrial photosynthetic activity, we used solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). Our results demonstrated a significant negative SST-SIF relationship during the onset phase of the summer monsoon: the SIF anomalies in the northern and central Indian regions decrease when strong warm SST anomalies persist in the tropical Indian Ocean. Further, SIF anomalies increase with cold anomalies of SST. However, the negative SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean are less impactful on SIF anomalies relative to the positive SST anomalies. The observed statistically significant SST–SIF link is feasible through atmospheric teleconnections. During monsoon onset, positive SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean favour weakened monsoon flow, decreasing moisture transport from the ocean to the Indian mainland. The resultant water deficiency, along with the high air temperature, created a stress condition and reduced the photosynthetic rate, thus demonstrating negative SIF anomalies across India. Conversely, negative SST anomalies strengthened monsoon winds in the onset period and increased moisture availability across India. Negative air temperature anomalies also dampen water stress conditions and increased photosynthetic activity, resulting in positive SIF anomalies. The identified SST-SIF relationship would be beneficial to generate a simple framework that aids in the detection of the probable impact on vegetation growth across India associated with the rapidly varying climate conditions in the Indian Ocean.

Revealing the Formation of the Dipole Mode of Eurasian Snow Cover Variability During Late Autumn

AbstractA zonal dipole pattern of the interannual variability of Eurasian snow cover during late autumn has attracted growing interest due to its extensive influences on large‐scale atmospheric circulations and climate anomalies, but it remains unknown what influences the formation of this pattern. This study revealed the potential drivers and the related physical processes of the dipole mode of the snow cover variability during 1979–2018. Results showed that the atmospheric circulation anomalies play a crucial role in forming the dipole mode, which could be further attributed to the influences of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns and the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration. Specifically, the anomalous circulations related to the teleconnections of the Eastern Atlantic pattern, East Atlantic–Western Russia pattern, and Scandinavian pattern could lead to the anomalies of air temperature and snowfall that directly shape the variability of snow cover. In addition, a dipole structure of the SST anomalies over the North Atlantic exerts an important effect on the snow cover variability through exciting an eastward propagating Rossby wave train prevailing over Eurasia. Moreover, the snow cover variability is closely linked to the sea ice variations over the Barents Sea that can regulate the anomalous circulations over Eurasia by altering the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions. These influencing factors jointly account for about 66% of variances in the dipole mode of snow cover variability, suggesting that our findings can substantially improve the understanding of the Eurasian snow cover variations.

Seasonal and interannual variability of the landfast ice mass balance between 2009 and 2018 in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

Abstract. Landfast ice (LFI) plays a crucial role for both the climate and the ecosystem of the Antarctic coastal regions. We investigate the snow and LFI mass balance in Prydz Bay using observations from 11 sea ice mass balance buoys (IMBs). The buoys were deployed offshore from the Chinese Zhongshan Station (ZS) and Australian Davis Station (DS), with the measurements covering the ice seasons of 2009–2010, 2013–2016, and 2018. The observed annual maximum ice thickness and snow depth were 1.59 ± 0.17 and 0.11–0.76 m off ZS and 1.64 ± 0.08 and 0.11–0.38 m off DS, respectively. Early in the ice growth season (May–September), the LFI basal growth rate near DS (0.6 ± 0.2 cm d−1) was larger than that around ZS (0.5 ± 0.2 cm d−1). This is attributed to cooler air temperature (AT) and lower oceanic heat flux at that time in the DS region. Air temperature anomalies were more important in regulating the LFI growth rate at that time because of thinner sea ice having a weaker thermal inertia relative to thick ice in later seasons. Interannual and local spatial variabilities for the seasonality of LFI mass balance identified at ZS are larger than at DS due to local differences in topography and katabatic wind regime. Snow ice contributed up to 27 % of the LFI total ice thickness at the offshore site close to ground icebergs off ZS because of the substantial snow accumulation. Offshore from ZS, the supercooled water was observed at the sites close to the Dålk Glacier from July to October, which reduced the oceanic heat flux and promoted the LFI growth. During late austral spring and summer, the increased oceanic heat flux led to a reduction of LFI growth at all investigated sites. The variability of LFI properties across the study domain prevailed at interannual timescales, over any trend during the recent decades. Based on the results derived from this study, we argue that an increased understanding of snow (on LFI) processes, local atmospheric and oceanic conditions, as well as coastal morphology and bathymetry, are required to improve the Antarctic LFI modeling.

Observed contribution of Barents-Kara sea ice loss to warm Arctic-cold Eurasia anomalies by submonthly processes in winter

The warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern of surface air temperature anomalies is a prominent feature of the Eurasian climate variations during boreal winter. The interannual WACE anomalies are accompanied by sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara (BK) seas, however, the causality between them remains controversial because of large internal atmospheric variability over subarctic Eurasia in winter. Here we disentangle the contribution of BK sea ice loss to the WACE anomalies based on a statistical decomposition approach. An anticyclonic circulation anomaly over subarctic Eurasia that forces the WACE anomalies is found to reach its peak 3 d prior to BK sea ice loss. After excluding this prior atmospheric forcing signature, the East Asian cooling matures about 15 d later as a result of the weakened moisture transport associated with the enhanced BK downstream ridge and East Asian trough due to BK sea ice loss. The results suggest that BK sea ice loss contributes ∼65% and ∼81% of the WACE-related East Asian cooling and Arctic warming at interannual timescale, respectively, whereas the WACE-related cooling over central Eurasia primarily results from internal atmospheric variability. Such submonthly lagged East Asia cooling caused by BK sea ice loss could be helpful in predicting winter extreme cold events over East Asia.

Manifestation of the Early 20th Century Warming in the East-European Plain: Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies and Its Connection to the North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Variability

A study of the climatic characteristics and annual runoff of the Volga and Severnaya Dvina rivers demonstrates that, on the East European Plain (EEP), Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW) manifested in a multiyear drought between 1934 and 1940; this drought has no analogues in this region in terms of intensity and duration according to Palmer’s classification, and caused extreme hydrological events. The circulation conditions during this event were characterized by an extensive anticyclone over Eastern Europe, combined with a cyclonic anomaly in the circumpolar region. An analysis of the spatial features of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies indicate that the surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in July on the EEP during ETCW were related not only to the North Atlantic (NA) warming and positive AMO phase, but also to a certain spatial pattern of SST anomalies characteristic of the 1920–1950 period. The difference between the SST anomalies of the opposite sign in the different NA zones, used as the indicator of the obtained spatial pattern, shows the quite close relations between the July SAT anomalies on the EEP and the atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for them. The positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the expansion of the subtropical high-pressure belt to the north and to the east can be considered as global-scale drivers of this phenomenon. The AMO also impacts the sea ice cover in the Barents–Kara Sea region, which, in turn, could have led to specific atmospheric circulation patterns and contributed to droughts on the EEP in the 1930s.

Subseasonal reversals of winter surface air temperature in mid-latitude Asia and the roles of westward-shift NAO

Reversals of surface air temperature anomalies over mid-latitude Asia (SATMA) have become more frequent. Six winters have been reversed over the last decade, which had serious negative consequences for agricultural production, ecological systems, and human health. This subseasonal reversal can be observed in the second mode of season-reliant empirical orthogonal function analysis, showing a persistent opposite anomaly between early and late winter. The difference in SATMA between early and late winter exceeds 3 °C when the reversal occurs. At the time of the reversal, the North Atlantic jet stream extends eastward in early winter and recedes westward in late winter. The main influencing system changes from the Scandinavia teleconnection to the Ural blocking high, accompanied by a change from strong southerly to northerly winds. These factors jointly lead to the reversal of SATMA between early and late winter. More importantly, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been shown to affect SATMA variability in a variety of different ways. Changes in SATMA are influenced not only by the intensity of the NAO, but also by its spatial distribution. When the southern center of the NAO shifts westward and is located over the North Atlantic, atmospheric circulation and SATMA in early and late winter show similar changes to those seen in SATMA reversal winters. In contrast, when the NAO southern center shifts eastward and is located over Western Europe, persistent anomalies are observed in atmospheric circulation and SATMA throughout the winter. Therefore, when studying the relationship between SATMA and the NAO, attention should be paid to the different responses of SATMA to the spatial distribution of the NAO at subseasonal timescales.

Interannual variability in the ecosystem CO2fluxes at a paludified spruce forest and ombrotrophic bog in the southern taiga

Abstract. Climate warming in high latitudes impacts CO2 sequestration of the northern peatlands through the changes in production and decomposition processes. The response of the net CO2 fluxes between ecosystems and the atmosphere to climate change and weather anomalies can vary across forest and non-forest peatlands. To better understand the differences in CO2 dynamics at forest and non-forest boreal peatlands induced by changes in environmental conditions, the estimates of interannual variability in the net ecosystem exchange (NEE), total ecosystem respiration (TER), and gross primary production (GPP) was obtained at two widespread peatland ecosystems – paludified spruce forest and the adjacent ombrotrophic bog in the southern taiga of west Russia using 6 years of paired eddy covariance flux measurements. Both positive and negative annual and growing season air temperature and precipitation anomalies were observed in the period of measurement (2015–2020). Flux measurements showed that, in spite of the lower growing season TER (332±17 … 339±15 gC m−2) and GPP (442±13 … 464± 11 gC m−2) rates, the bog had a higher CO2 uptake rates (NEE was -132±11 … -108±6) than the forest, except for the warmest and the wettest year of the period (2020), and was an atmospheric CO2 sink in the selected years, while the forest was a CO2 sink or source, depending on the environmental conditions. Growing season NEE at the forest site was between -142±48 and 28±40 gC m−2, TER between 1135±64 and 1366±58 gC m−2, and GPP between 1207±66 and 1462±107 gC m−2. Annual NEE at the forest was between -62±49 and 145±41 gC m−2, TER between 1429±87 and 1652±44 C m−2, and GPP between 1345±89 and 1566±41 gC m−2, respectively. Under the anomalously warm winter conditions with sparse and thin snow cover (2019/2020), the increased daily GPP, TER, and net CO2 uptake at the forest was observed, while at the bog, the changes in CO2 fluxes between the warm and cold winters were not significant. This study suggests that the warming in winter can increase the CO2 uptake of the paludified spruce forests of the southern taiga in non-growing seasons.

Interannual Variations of Sea-ice Extent in the Okhotsk Sea – A Pan-Okhotsk Climate System Perspective

ABSTRACT This study investigated interannual variations in the late winter (January–March) sea-ice extent in the Okhotsk Sea (OS) and its relationship with the atmospheric circulation from 1971 to 2018. During heavy sea-ice years, negative air temperature anomalies are broadly discernable between the northeastern part of Eurasia and the North Pacific including the coastal polynyas adjacent to the northern and western coast of the OS. Cold air mass (CAM) genesis indicates the importance of the insulation effect of sea-ice in the persistent cold air temperatures in the OS. Light sea-ice years are marked by anomalous southeasterly winds and the resultant warm air advection associated with increases in extratropical cyclones. Southeasterly anomalies are associated with the weakening of the Aleutian low. Upper-tropospheric anticyclones dominating around the OS are closely connected with intensified convection in the vicinity of the South China Sea through propagation of a stationary Rossby wave relevant to La Niña-like warm sea surface temperature anomalies. The seasonal evolution of the CAM amount, sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Aleutian low suggest that there may be chain feedback between them.

Synoptic-scale reversal of dipole surface temperature anomalies over East Asia and Central Siberia in November 2021

In early-to-mid November 2021, a pronounced reversal of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies (SATAs) occurred over East Asia and Central Siberia, with extreme SATAs that reached up to about 10 °C. Such a synoptic-scale reversal of SATAs was characterized by the alternate emergence of the “colder Central Siberia–warmer East Asia” pattern and the “warmer Central Siberia–colder East Asia” pattern in November 2021. Coinciding with the reversals of the meridional dipole SATAs, large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies experienced reversed changes. The development of the anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) flow over East Aisa (Central Siberia) was crucial for the occurrence of the “warmer Central Siberia–colder East Asia” pattern. Moreover, as the leading mode of daily SAT variability in approximately 56% of the Novembers during 1979–2021, the meridional dipole pattern of warmer (colder) anomalies over Central Siberia and colder (warmer) anomalies over East Asia may be one of the dominant modes of November SAT variability over Eurasia on the synoptic scale.摘要2021年11月, 东亚与中西伯利亚经历了相反的冷暖异常转换, 表现为“中西伯利亚偏冷, 东亚偏暖”与“中西伯利亚偏暖, 东亚偏冷”的交替出现. 该偶极型气温异常的天气尺度反转伴随着大尺度大气环流异常的反转. 进一步分析表明, 东亚与中西伯利亚的偶极型气温异常反转是1979–2021年期间11月欧亚气温日变化的主导模态之一(发生概率超过56%).

Two Types of Wintertime Teleconnection Patterns over the Western North Pacific Associated with Regionally Different Heating Anomalies

The turnabout of air temperature anomalies over East Asia between the first and second halves of winter 2020/21 was examined from a teleconnection perspective with regionally different convective heating anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific sector. In the first half of winter 2020/21, the air temperature over East Asia was lower than normal, accompanied by a pair of anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies in the upper troposphere southeast of the Tibetan Plateau and north of Japan, respectively. This dipole pattern is newly referred to as the Southeast Asia–Japan (SAJ) pattern in this study, indicating the propagation of Rossby waves caused by enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Indian Ocean toward the South China Sea. In the second half of winter 2020/21, the enhanced convection shifted eastward to the Philippine Sea. The subsequent anticyclonic anomaly changed its position to the south of Japan, which was similar to the western Pacific (WP)-like teleconnection pattern, causing warmer conditions over East Asia. The composite analysis indicated that the anomalous anticyclone over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau corresponding to the SAJ pattern emerged simultaneously with intensification of convection over the South China Sea. Half of the cases of the WP-like pattern have been accompanied by enhanced convection over the Philippine Sea. The different circulation patterns were reproduced by prescribing the heat source over the South China Sea and Philippine Sea to the linear baroclinic model. Moreover, the vorticity budget analysis suggested that the presence of upper-tropospheric convergence of winds to the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau seen in the climatology is conceivable for the in situ localized anomalous circulation constituting the SAJ pattern due to vortex stretching effects.

КРУПНОМАСШТАБНЫЕ ЛЕТНИЕ ВОЛНЫ ТЕПЛА НА ЮГЕ ЕВРОПЕЙСКОЙ РОССИИ

For large-scale heat waves that occur in the south of the European part of Russia (EPR), the frequency variability since the beginning of the 20th century is considered, including variations on decadal scales and a trend during the global warming period, accompanying variations in the aridity index SPI, and the structure of the longest waves. The geographic distribution of air temperature anomalies on the territory of the Russian Federation, large-scale circulation conditions, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which accompanied heat waves in the south of the EPR, are analyzed using the composite analysis. In particular, the wave structure was revealed of the composite field of the air temperature anomaly for days with heat waves and the related 500 hPa geopotential height (H500) fields over Russia. The H500 field structure generally corresponds to the negative phase of the East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR) circulation pattern. Similar structures of the geopotential field are observed during heat waves in the northern half of the EPR. However, in this case, there are specific features that contribute to the inflow of cold air from the north to the southern regions. It is shown that the values of the EAWR index are significantly shifted towards negative values in the months when long heat waves occur over the southern EPR. The waves are accompanied by positive anomalies of the North Atlantic SST and the strongly increased blocking anticyclone activity. The downward trend in the EAWR index observed in recent decades and the SST rise expected with the global warming increase a risk of droughts in the main grain-producing region of the country.

Impact of global warming on average annual air temperature in Varaždin

Climate change implies a statistically significant change in the long-term mean state or characteristics of the variability of climate elements. It can be caused by natural and/or anthropogenic factors. Recent global warming is often cited as an example of human-induced climate change. Global warming refers to the increasing trend of the average global surface temperature of the Earth, defined as the global average of the mean annual surface temperature of the ocean, usually to a depth of 30-100 cm, and the mean annual surface temperature of the air above the land at a height of 1-2 m above the ground. In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) established the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which assesses the state of the climate and the risk of climate change caused by human activities.To project climate change, it is necessary to determine the future emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. According to the IPCC, with appropriate scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, an increase in the average global surface temperature of 1.5 °C to 4 °C is predicted by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this paper is to show the relationship between the trend and variability of the global average of the mean annual surface temperature on Earth and the trend of the mean annual air surface temperature in Varaždin for the period 1949-2021. The results show significant correlations among them because Varaždin is located in an big area of surface air temperature anomalies which has a significant contribution to a global average anomalies in several last decades.

Modulation by the QBO of the Relationship between the NAO and Northeast China Temperature in Late Winter

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has an in-phase relationship with surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Northeast China in late winter. The present study shows that such an NAO–SAT relationship becomes stronger during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but is relatively weak during westerly phases. Observational evidence reveals that the modulation effect of the QBO on the NAO–SAT relationship over Northeast China is attributable to QBO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO and associated stratosphere–troposphere coupling. During easterly QBO phases, the NAO has a strong connection with the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, facilitating a hemisphere-wide structure of the NAO and thus a downstream extension of NAO signal from the Euro–Atlantic sector toward Northeast Asia. During westerly QBO phases, however, the NAO has a limited connection with the stratospheric polar vortex. In this case, the NAO features a classically regional mode, with the signal in the SAT field mainly confined to the Euro-Atlantic sector. By examining historical simulations from six climate models participating in CMIP6 and including stratospheric processes, it is found that none of these models captures a significant difference in the spatial structure of the NAO and its connection with the stratospheric polar vortex between the easterly and westerly QBO phases in late winter. A key reason may be related to the poor performance of the models in simulating the Holton–Tan effect, which is critical for linking the QBO and NAO. Significance Statement The QBO is the dominant mode of equatorial stratospheric variability and important for seasonal forecasting. This study aims to better understand the surface influence of the QBO by examining the relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies over China according to the phases of the QBO during boreal winter. Our results highlight the importance of the QBO in modulating the spatial structure and thus climate impact of the NAO via stratosphere–troposphere coupling in observations, while state-of-the-art climate models perform poorly in simulating the QBO-related stratosphere–troposphere coupling and thus the QBO–NAO connection. These findings have important implications for seasonal prediction and model development in the future.

Contemporary Climate Change and Its Hydrological Consequence in the Volga Federal District, European Russia

An analysis of spatiotemporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Volga Federal District (European Russia) between 1966 and 2021 was carried out. Based on data from 20 meteorological stations, relatively evenly located on the territory under consideration, the spatial distribution of average monthly and average annual air temperatures and monthly and annual precipitation was assessed; some indicators of the temporal variability of these variables in the period under consideration were calculated and analyzed. It was revealed that throughout the Volga Federal District, there was a tendency of climate warming in all months, and a slight increase in annual precipitation, except for the southeast of the district, where the precipitation trend was negative. It is noted that in the period 1955–1998, the number of negative air temperature anomalies was approximately equal to the number of positive ones; however, in the later period 1999–2021, the number of positive anomalies significantly exceeded the number of negative ones. Based on reanalysis data, climatic maps of vaporization and runoff in the Volga Federal District during 1966–2021 were created. The dependence of air temperature fluctuations on the nature of atmospheric circulation was revealed using the NAO, AO, and SCAND indices. On the example of the central part of the district (Republic of Tatarstan), some increase in summer aridity of the climate was revealed by using Budyko’s dryness index, Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient, and Sapozhnikov’s humidification coefficient. The indicators of runoff and evaporation were also calculated using the methods of Schreiber and Ivanov. Against the background of the positive trend in vaporization rates, favorable conditions for a decrease in runoff were noted.

Impact of rapid Arctic sea ice decline on China's crop yield under global warming

AbstractFood is the material basis for human survival. Therefore, food security is a top priority for the people's livelihood and the sustainable development and future destiny of human beings. In the context of global warming in recent decades, the Arctic region has experienced more significant temperature anomalies than the midlatitudes due to the "Arctic amplification," and the rate of sea ice reduction has accelerated, which has an important impact on climate change in the middle and high latitudes, especially the frequent occurrence of extreme climate disasters that seriously affect food security and China's agricultural production. However, little research has been conducted on the role of changes in this important system of Arctic sea ice in China's agricultural production. Therefore, this paper analyzes the interannual variability and multi-year trends of Arctic sea ice concentration, CO2, air temperature, precipitation and China's major crop yield data to explore the possible effects and mechanisms of the rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice on China's grain production. From the analysis, it was found that the yield of major grains (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) in China was closely related to the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the previous summer and autumn, and the influence process was primarily through the dynamic process of the Arctic sea ice anomaly affecting the meridional temperature gradient and the positive and negative Arctic Oscillation phases, which in turn affected the air temperature anomalies in Eurasia and China, and finally led to the anomalous changes in Chinese grain yield. Based on this, a prediction model of China's major grain yield was established by stepwise nonlinear multiple regression analysis, which is a good fit and is expected to increase China's major crop yield by 11.4% in 2022 compared with last year. This presents new ideas and methods for future grain yield assessment in China and has far-reaching guidance for the stability and development of national and regional economies worldwide.

The role of large-scale drivers in the Amundsen Sea Low variability and associated changes in water isotopes from the Roosevelt Island ice core, Antarctica

Here we examine the water stable-isotope data from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. Roosevelt Island is an independent ice rise located at the northeastern margin of the Ross Ice Shelf. In this study, we use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to investigate the relationship between RICE ice-core oxygen-18 isotopes (δ18O) and Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation during the extended austral winter (April–November). The RICE δ18O record is correlated with Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Pacific–South American pattern 1 (PSA1), which both project onto the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) geopotential height field. Pacific sector Southern Ocean, eastern Ross Sea, and West Antarctic’s atmospheric circulation, sea ice, and surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies, as well as RICE δ18O, are strongest when El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and SAM are “in-phase”. That is when the SAM − /PSA1 + (El Niño) and SAM + /PSA1 − (La Niña) phasing prevails. When in-phase, the δ18O correlation with the 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) is strong in regions (e.g., the Amundsen Sea) where their anomalies associated with SAM and PSA1 show the same sign. SAM − /PSA1 + (El Niño) and SAM + /PSA1 − (La Niña) is associated with positive and negative δ18O anomalies, respectively. RICE δ18O can aid in establishing past natural variability of the strength of the SH high-latitude Pacific sector ENSO-SAM connection and associated atmospheric circulation, sea ice, and SAT extremes.