The article examines the results of a theoretical, methodological and empirical study of the macroeconomic and financial consequences of certain demographic syndromes of the post-industrial world and their impact on labor potential management in individual countries through the prism of human capital. In particular, the article examines the state and prospects of population aging and the resulting decline in the share of the workforce and their impact on macroeconomic dynamics and financial stability in the post-industrial world, characterized by the highest rates of population aging in the world. This article also contributes to understanding how population aging can affect aggregate factor productivity through individual elements of human capital. While other individual studies have focused on the general downward trend in the share of labor in GDP, the assessment of the macroeconomic and financial consequences of such a trend remains poorly understood. To this end, based on a quantitative model of the general equilibrium of the life cycle, the article provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of a decrease in the share of labor on macroeconomic variables and reforms of the social security system. In particular, the study is based on the model of intersecting generations, the parameters of which are adapted to individual countries of the post-industrial world, while modeling the impact of various institutions of human capital, such as health insurance and pension provision, etc. Empirical evidence shows that the decline in the labor share can be offset by a combination of appropriate macroeconomic management and institutional reforms, which can ultimately contribute to restoring macro-financial stability in countries characterized by an aging population and high levels of public debt.

The factors and mechanisms of the dynamics of global economic growth at the present stage have been analyzed and summarized. Over the past decades, many determinants have increased uncertainty in the global economy development, affecting the decline in aggregate factor productivity through various channels. The purpose of the study is to assess the mechanisms of deceleration and divergence of global economic growth, which significantly limit sustainable social and economic development in the global economy, as well as to discuss scenarios and ways to prevent a slowdown in global growth. The challenges of this slowdown for the sustainability of the global economy have been discussed, and new growth trends that emerged in 2022-2024 have been systematized. An additional aspect of the study was the assessment of the negative risks of global economic growth in the future, related to the current concerns about ongoing inflation and recession. The mechanisms that determine the growth divergence and uncertainty have been identified, including using the example of the dynamics observed in individual countries and assessing economic policies implemented in these states (including in terms of countering inflation). Several scenarios of global economic growth for the medium term have been presented, suggesting the opportunities implementation to prevent a slowdown in growth. If growth slows down in the medium term, it will have a negative impact on income convergence between states, as it will become increasingly difficult for poor countries to catch up with rich ones. There are distributional consequences of a slowdown in growth in the medium term for global inequality and wellfare.

The article provides an insight into the dynamics of total factor productivity of the leading European countries (the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain) and the US. The current state of technological development has been assessed and promising areas of impact to ensure sustainable socio-economic development have been identified. The aggregate factor productivity growth (human capital, resource allocation and openness of the economy) is systematized. Methodologically the article is based on the system approach, along with comparative and statistical analysis. The article explores prospects for stimulating innovative development at the country level: Global Innovation Index, Human Development Index, Global Knowledge Index, number of patent applications, expenditures on health care, education and research and development, etc. Based on these indicators, a grouping of countries with similar development trends was identified as follows: USA and the UK, France and Germany, Italy and Spain. Taking into account the result of the impact of the above factors, countries can adjust their socio-economic programs in order to optimize the implemented strategies.

Objective: to identify industry trends in aggregate factor productivity, labor productivity and capital productivity in economic sectors. The hypotheses are: there is a continuing slowdown in aggregate factor productivity in the Russian economy sectors; there is a gap in aggregate factor productivity in various complexes of industries. Methods: Cobb–Douglas production function, multiple regression, Domar aggregation, Gini coefficient, graphical visualization. Results: the study revealed a more efficient use of labor resources in contrast to capital, the latter being accumulated everywhere. The highest increase in labor productivity was noted in financial and insurance activities, manufacturing industries, professional, scientific and technical activities. There is a cyclical dynamics of aggregate factor productivity, its most stable growth and a positive cumulative technological shift marked from 2017 until 2021. They are observed in the manufacturing and investment complexes of the Russian economy (financial and insurance activities), and in agriculture.A decrease in total factor productivity was found in the mining industry, transportation and storage, hotels and catering, construction, education, and healthcare. Scientific novelty: it consists in a change in the total factor productivity and the total technological shift in the context of sectors and complexes of sectors of the Russian economy from 2011 to 2021. Practical significance: the study results can be used for the policy of stimulating internal sources of economic growth, to improve sectoral recommendations of innovation policy.

Goal: the aim of the paper is to assess the impact of industrial robot imports on the productivity of Russian enterprises in the manufacturing industry. Methodology: panel regression with random effects and least squares methods are used to model the data. The sample includes 81 794 enterprises in the Russian manufacturing industry that were active during the postcrisis development of the Russian economy in 2011–2018. Findings: direct importers of industrial robots tend to be larger and more internationalized: they are owned by foreigners and export directly. In our study, we found that robot imports have a positive impact on both aggregate factor productivity and labour productivity. The results suggest that in the Russian manufacturing industry the effects of robots on productivity are more significant for non-leading enterprises, which are typically internationalized (exporters and enterprises with foreign capital) and import robots more frequently. Originality and contribution of the authors: in the Russian economy, this study represents the first attempt to assess the effects of industrial robots. Results show that industrial robots can be used to improve the competitiveness of the Russian economy and to close the productivity gap within industries. Only direct import data are used in the paper, which is a limitation.

The objective need for environmental investment to overcome the reproduction of anti-sustainable environmental trends in the modern Russian economy and its post-pandemic recovery is substantiated. Environmental investments that meet the criteria of the global ESG agenda are positioned as responsible in their essence and transformative in their functional role. Original scientific judgments are presented on the impact of such investments on the dynamics and intensity of "green" innovations (new technologies, production processes, supply chains capable of solving issues of waste processing and industrial reproduction of raw materials from waste resources, as well as the use of alternative energy sources, etc.), which are able to generate long-term and sustainable growth of aggregate factor productivity (TFP) and ensure the radical transformations of the economic system associated with the formation of a "green" circular economy. Regressive models (growth curves) have been constructed for the current domestic economy, taking into account the volume of environmental investment, confirming the hypothesis of the "weakness" of this process in the Russian Federation, including due to the lack of significant changes in the state environmental policy. The minimum necessary economic tools of the state policy in the field of stimulating environmental investment in Russia have been formed in order to post-pandemic recovery of its economy and ensure long-term sustainable growth of TFP. The conducted research makes a certain contribution to the development of the theory of endogenous economic growth by taking into account the impact of environmental investment, which is initially focused on the effective use of natural capital, on the maximum involvement of waste resources in economic turnover, the replacement of traditional production technologies with environmentally friendly or low-carbon, the improvement of ecosystems, the production potential of the economy, the quality of the environment and social changes.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ УЧЕТА И ИЗМЕРЕНИЯ ЦИФРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ НА ОСНОВЕ ПРИЛОЖЕНИЙ СИСТЕМЫ НАЦИОНАЛЬНЫХ СЧЕТОВ (The Prospects for Accounting and Measurement of the Digital Economy Based on National Accounts Applications)

СОВОКУПНАЯ ФАКТОРНАЯ ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЬНОСТЬ В РОССИИ: ВЛИЯНИЕ ЭКОНОМИКО-ГЕОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ УСЛОВИЙ И ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКОГО КАПИТАЛА (Total Factor Productivity in Russia: The Impact of Economic and Geographical Conditions and Human Capital)

The article presents dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Kazakhstan and its parameters estimation by Bayesian methods. A feature of DSGE-approach is the use of the neo-Keynesian microeconomic foundation, which allows describing the behavior of key economic actors and taking into account the main market failures (imperfect markets and sticky prices). In addition, DSGE-models are based on the theory of rational expectations. The model is a system of 15 linearized equations for key macroeconomic indicators of the main economic sectors: households, enterprises, the National Bank, and the external sector. The model describes the economy in the short term (excluding investments in fixed assets), in the inflation targeting mode with a floating exchange rate. Parameters were evaluated by Bayesian methods. The advantage of this approach is the possibility to estimate parameters on short time series due to the use of prior information. This is important in the conditions of structural changes. Scenario calculations were performed on the estimated parameters for aggregate factor productivity shocks and aggregate demand shocks, for prices shock and for an increase in external interest rates. The results can be used for the development of monetary policy and optimization of its parameters. The results can also be used as a foundation for building applied QPM models.

Decomposition of GDP Growth Rates in 2016-2019: In Expectation of Structural Changes

Accounting for Productivity Dispersion Over the Business Cycle

We propose a sectoral–shift theory of aggregate factor productivity for a class of multisector economies with AK technologies and a constant production possibilities frontier. Loans are partly secured by collateral and partly based on reputation. We find that both the growth rate and total factor productivity (TFP) respond to random and persistent endogenous fluctuations in the sectoral distribution of physical capital, which, in turn, responds to reversible exogenous shifts in relative sector productivities. Endogenous debt limits on secured and unsecured loans slow down capital reallocation, preventing the equalization of risk-adjusted equity yields across sectors. Economywide factor productivity and the aggregate growth rate are both negatively correlated with the dispersion of sectoral rates of return, sectoral TFP, and sectoral growth rates. We also find highly volatile limit cycles in economies with small amounts of collateral.

Capital Misallocation and Aggregate Factor Productivity

Analysis of regional productivity with capital as a quasi-fixed factor