Age Structure Of Population Research Articles

Public network attention to hiking in China and its influencing factors.

In the process of hikers' choosing a destination, searching for information is one of the important elements, playing a decisive role in decision-making. Based on the Baidu Index for "hiking," this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of and factors that influenced network attention to hiking in China from 2016 to 2021. The study found that (1) Network attention to hiking in China was generally relatively stable across the period studied, with highly uneven distribution between different months. The search volume was higher on weekends, and mobile searches increased year by year, far exceeding computer searches. (2) Different regions in China experienced different levels of network attention, with the highest levels in the east, followed by the center, and the lowest in the west. Except for East China, network attention to hiking was highly unevenly distributed within each region. (3) The COVID-19 pandemic increased the geographical concentration index and coefficient of variation but reduced the primacy index. A region's level of economic development, degree of network development, population size, and population age structure are proposed as factors that affect network attention to hiking.

“Old” and “young” Chinese provinces: age structure and economic growth

Population aging, a major challenge to economic development, is developing rapidly in China in the 21st century. The objectives of this work are: 1) to identify the degree of aging and the contribution of demographic factors to population aging in various provinces of China; 2) to trace the correlation between the population age structure and the GRP per capita growth rate in the provinces of the PRC; 3) to assess the dynamics of demographic dividend in China in 2002–2021. The authors use methods of demographic and regression analysis based on data from China’s official statistical body. The work reveals significant differences in the level of population aging in different Chinese provinces. The main demographic drivers of aging also differ. In some provinces, changes in fertility make an important contribution during the period under review; in others, changes in mortality make an important contribution. The authors confirm a statistically significant negative relationship between the growth rate of real GRP per capita and the dependency ratio at the current stage of China's development, and calculate the contribution of demographic dividend to the country's economic growth.

The Heterogeneous Impact of Changes in the Age Structure of China’s Elderly Population on Regional Economic Development

Abstract Currently, the impact of population aging on economic development is mainly explored from the dimension of time, ignoring the Heterogeneity between the two. In this paper, we start by measuring the regional economic development level index, use the entropy value method to solve the index weights, and calculate the regional economic development level index using the linear weighting method. The regional development level index is used as an explanatory variable to construct the baseline regression model and the dynamic panel model for the change in the age structure of the elderly population. The panel data of 31 provinces (cities/autonomous regions) in China are used as examples to explore the heterogeneous effects of age structure changes on regional economic development of the elderly population. The results show that when the age structure change of the elderly population increases by 1%, the regional economic development level rises by 0.782%, and the age structure change of the elderly population is positively and significantly affecting the quality of economic development in the central and western regions at the 1% level. The regression coefficient of population aging in the low level stage is 0.007. The effect on the regional economic development level is significantly positive at the 1%. The age structure change of the elderly population affects the regional economic development by mediating health consumption expenditure. The age structure change of the elderly population has Heterogeneity in regional economic development in terms of period, region, and level at different stages.

Comprehensive analysis of the state of habitats of Cotoneaster lucidus Schlecht. in the Malo-Istoksky forest park in Yekaterinburg

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of Cotoneaster lucidus Schlecht. in the forest park area of the city of Yekaterinburg (Russia) based on population (age and vitality structure) and organismal parameters (morphometric indicators). The purpose of the study is to analyze the features of the ontogenetic and vitality structure of seven habitats of the brilliant cotoneaster Cotoneaster lucidus Schlecht in the Malo-Istoksky forest park of the city of Yekaterinburg. Plants in the habitat are presented in the form of geoxyl bush. In the Age structure, two periods have been identified - pregenerative and generative, and three ontogenetic states. All habitats are young and are in the stage of settlement, exclusively in forb pine forests with a canopy density of 0.3-0.6. The main route of penetration of the brilliant cotoneaster into the Malo-Istoksky Forest Park is artificial plantings along the paths, near equipped recreation areas. Its spread was facilitated by the presence of edible, long-lasting fruits on the shoots, which provided food for many species of birds. The established features indicate the high potential of the species and successful naturalization.

Distribution ofAcer negundoL. in the Karasye-Ozersky forest park of Yekaterinburg

The article is devoted to invasions ofAcer negundoL. 1753 in the forest park area of Yekaterinburg (Russia) based on population (age and vitality structure) and organismal parameters (morphometric indicators). The purpose of the work was to study the invasion of ashleaved maple in the forest park area of Yekaterinburg; the objectives of the study included the following tasks: establishing the ecological-cenotic location of the maple and studying the biological characteristics of the species during its distribution. The objects of the study were eight maple habitats in the Karasye-Ozersky forest park. In ontogenetic development, one life form is identified - a single-stem tree, two periods are defined - pregenerative and generative, and five ontogenetic states. All habitats are young, i.e. are at the initial stage of introduction, however, there are common features of invasion. Distribution begins from open edges, gradually penetrating under the forest canopy, while having high shade tolerance, seed productivity and growth rate,Acernegundoforms multitiered thickets, displacing and complicating the self-restoration of native flora in the Karasye-Ozersky Forest Park. Despite the wide range of distribution of maple in natural and anthropogenic ecosystems, there is an ecological and phytocenotic confinement to it in the forest park, and it is manifested in its distribution mainly in pine forests of mixed herbs with a tree canopy density of 0.5. The established patterns indicate a pronounced expansion of the species and its significant invasive potential.

Analysis of the invasive activity of Cotoneaster lucidus Schlecht. in the Kalinovsky forest park in Yekaterinburg

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of Cotoneaster lucidus Schlecht. in the forest park area of Yekaterinburg (Russia) based on population (age and vitality structure) and organismal parameters (morphometric indicators). The purpose of the study is to analyze the invasive activity of Cotoneaster lucidus Schlecht. in the Kalinovsky Forest Park in Yekaterinburg. Plants in the habitat are presented in the form of geoxyl bush. In the Age structure, two periods have been identified - pregenerative and generative, and six ontogenetic states. All habitats are at the stage of colonization, exclusively in forb pine forests with a canopy density of 0.6-0.7. The main route of penetration of the brilliant cotoneaster into the Kalinovsky Forest Park is artificial plantings along the paths, near equipped recreation areas. Its spread was facilitated by the presence of edible, long-lasting fruits on the shoots, which provided food for many species of birds. The established features indicate the high potential of the species and successful naturalization.

Numerical experiments of matrix population model

The purpose of this work is to consider the theory of model of matrix population is presented, and generalizations are proposed. Study the age structure of populations which leads to a class of models, assuming unlimited food resources. Reproduction occurs at certain times, and the population contains n age groups. Then at each fixed moment, the population can be characterized by a column vector. We analyzed and investigated such models and, after that output numerical computations and visualized the results of computer calculations.

Research on the Influence of Population Age Structure on Economic Growth in Guangdong Province

Research on the Influence of Population Age Structure on Economic Growth in Guangdong Province

Overcome discrimination for older workers to achieve equality and sustainable development

Transformation of the world population age structure happens at a fast pace and creates problems of increasing social expenditures. However, Industry 4.0 technologies create large-scale opportunities for extending the labor activity of the older population. In Russia, share of people over working age is 22%, and it will increase by another 15% in next 30 years. At the same time, older people are discriminated in the labor market. The article is devoted to the study of job and salary discrimination of elderly workers in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania as a typical Russian region with tight labor market and a deteriorating demographic situation. Methods of statistical and graphical analysis, factual and sociological research were used. Conclusions have been drawn about the predominance of the model of preserving the employment of older workers in public administration, education, science and health care; the influence of the indexation rate of pensions for non-working pensioners on their informal employment; the preservation of wage disparities for older people employed in the regional economy. The internal gender and age discrimination that has developed in the field of remuneration of older age groups has been revealed: discrimination of women's labor in all age cohorts and types of employment; inter-cohort discrimination of older men's labor within one type of employment; discrimination of wage growth rates of employees of different types of employment. Measures to improve the efficiency of regulating the employment of older workers are proposed.

Analysis of territorial patterns of age population structure at the subnational level in Chile

<div><p>From the evidence obtained in the 2017 Chilean population census pyramid for the country scale, the question arises whether the population structure by age is replicated homogeneously at the subnational level or, on the contrary, it presents heterogeneous local characteristics based on age groups. For each of the third-level subnational units (n=346), the standard deviation of the different age classes was compared in relation to the national population pyramid. With these differences, the k-means method was used to identify eight groups of communes, and four demographic indicators were calculated. The results allow to affirm that the population structure by age and sex at the communal level presents heterogeneous characteristics. The analysis of territorial patterns identified groups of the aging population, households with active aging, transition to aging, adult population, men in terminal productive age, men in initial age, households with children under 15 years and households with children over 15 years.</p></div>

Екологія полівки підземної (Microtus subterraneus) у високогір’ї Українських Карпат

The article presents information on the ecology of pine voles in the highlands of the Carpathians based on the results of studies conducted in 1956–1986. The results of population surveys in different types of habitats and plant associations are presented, with corresponding estimates of abundance (maximum 123 specimens/ha) and density (maximum 2.6 kg/ha), as well as an analysis of population features in different habitats and different years. The high frequency of the species occurrence in ruderal coenoses of the highlands, in particular in thickets of the alpine sorrel, is shown. Detailed information on the reproduction of populations, in particular on the number of young in a litter, is given: the modal value is 2–3, the limits are 1–5, and the average is 2.4–2.9, depending on the biotope (plant association). Data on the ratio of reproductively active individuals and the age and sex structure of populations, as well as the ecomorphological and ecophysiological parameters of voles are presented.

Putting the dead to work: A new method to assess the autochthony of marine Ostracoda death assemblages

Sedimentary and paleontological records can be powerful means of reconstructing ecological and physical environmental changes, by using a variety of records extending proxies to extend chronologies beyond the reach of instrumental or manual records. Ostracods are often used as paleoenvironmental proxies. Estimating the population age structure could be a useful tool for assessing the influence of some environmental parameters on death assemblages and for determining the autochthoneity or allochthoneity of the species that make up the thanatocoenosis. In the literature, several methods based on population age structure have been proposed to distinguish autochthonous and allochthonous components of life/death ostracod assemblages.The Adult:Juveniles ratio analysis of a rich and well-preserved ostracod assemblage from one site in the circalittoral zone of Pontine Archipelago, in the central-eastern Tyrrhenian Sea, is presented. The new Specific Population Stage Index (SPS) is proposed, built upon the measurements of all growth stages in the assemblage. The population structure using the new SPS Index on three different grain sizes is tested against a list of putative in situ and transported ostracod specimens. The analysis on the small grain size (maximum heigth >63 µm) proved the most effective in describing the putative life ostracod assemblage, whereas in the largest grain size (maximum height >180 µm) the young instars of the smaller species are under-represented. This includes species generally under-represented in the fossil record of the Mediterranean, probably due to sample processing bias and not to the rarity of the species itself. Assessing the autochthoneity of modern/fossil assemblages has great potential for acquiring baseline information on ecosystems before the onset of human activities, making this an extremely powerful approach essential to evaluating anthropogenic impacts. This approach seeks to identify the in situ life assemblages within an ostracod population to ensure that paleoenvironmental interpretations are not biased by transported allochthonous elements.

Baikal seal (<i>Pusa sibirica</i> Gmelin 1788, Phocidae). 1. Results of the experiment on heightened commercial withdrawal (retrospective evaluation)

Dynamics of the main parameters of the Baikal seal population (age and sex structure, size and weight indices, reproductive activity) in the years of experiment with heightened commercial withdrawal of the seals (1977–1985) is analyzed on the base of primary field data collected during the spring hunting. The problem of natural limitation for the population abundance is discussed for the case when further growth is limited by carrying capacity of the habitat. The observed changes of age, sex, size, and reproductive parameters reflected intrapopulation processes of the abundance regulation, weakly associated with trophic and density factors. Despite intensive commercial load and negative consequences of unusually early ice melting in 1981, the number of Baikal seal grew until the late 1980s. The withdrawal did not lead to expected improvement of the population status that was explained by underestimation of the stock. Low level (or complete absence) of biological substantiation for the experiment is noted.

Modeling and analysis of a multilayer solid tumour with cell physiological age and resource limitations

We study an avascular spherical solid tumour model with cell physiological age and resource constraints in vivo. We divide the tumour cells into three components: proliferating cells, quiescent cells and dead cells in necrotic core. We assume that the division rate of proliferating cells is nonlinear due to the nutritional and spatial constraints. The proportion of newborn tumour cells entering directly into quiescent state is considered, since this proportion can respond to the therapeutic effect of drug. We establish a nonlinear age-structured tumour cell population model. We investigate the existence and uniqueness of the model solution and explore the local and global stabilities of the tumour-free steady state. The existence and local stability of the tumour steady state are studied. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to verify the theoretical results and to investigate the effects of different parameters on the model.

Владимир Георгиевич Ищенко (1938 – 2021) – памяти екатеринбургского петербуржца

This paper is dedicated to the history of the life path and scientific biography of Vladimir Georgievich Ishchenko, the founder of the national amphibian population ecology. He was born in 1938 and formed as a biologist in Leningrad, where he took his first steps in science under the guidance of Pavel Viktorovich Terentyev. In 1961, after graduating from the university, he moved to work in Sverdlovsk, at the Institute of Biology of the Ural Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences, where he rose from a laboratory assistant to a leading researcher, Doctor of Biological Sciences and worked until his retirement on November 30, 2018. It was in Sverdlovsk (Yekaterinburg from 1723 to 1924 and after 1991) Vladimir Georgievich for a long period (39 years of regular continuous monitoring), conducted research to study the dynamics of the number and age structure of the amphibian population (pointed frog) in the Urals. The area of scientific interests of Vladimir Georgievich covered population ecology, genetic diversity, phylogeny and taxonomy of animals, the state of populations and the protection of the animal world. His work has made a significant contribution to understanding the ecological mechanisms of ontogeny regulation in animals.

Demographic and labor force impacts of future immigration flows into Europe: does an immigrant’s region of origin matter?

Immigration has become a key demographic component in developed European nations. At the same time, many countries have seen an increase in immigration from non-European origins and more diversified migrant flows. In most population projections, however, immigrants are considered an almost homogenous population. This study utilizes a population microsimulation projection model (QuantMig-Mic) for 31 European countries that includes place of birth as a source of heterogeneity for components that could impact population size, age structures, and economic dependency ratios. We simulated different scenarios from 2020 to 2060 in which the birth regions of future immigrant flows were changed drastically compared to recent trends. Our results showed that major shifts in the origin of immigration flows toward Europe would impact the spatial distribution of the population in the continent and therefore—at the local level—the population size of some countries. We found that the age structure would be only marginally affected and that shifts in the composition of immigration flows would not significantly alter the increasing age dependency ratio. Moreover, even in the countries most impacted in terms of population size, no scenario led to notable changes in the total labor force participation rate or in the educational structure of the labor force.

Addressing the Knowledge Deficit in Hospital Bed Planning and Defining an Optimum Region for the Number of Different Types of Hospital Beds in an Effective Health Care System.

Based upon 30-years of research by the author, a new approach to hospital bed planning and international benchmarking is proposed. The number of hospital beds per 1000 people is commonly used to compare international bed numbers. This method is flawed because it does not consider population age structure or the effect of nearness-to-death on hospital utilization. Deaths are also serving as a proxy for wider bed demand arising from undetected outbreaks of 3000 species of human pathogens. To remedy this problem, a new approach to bed modeling has been developed that plots beds per 1000 deaths against deaths per 1000 population. Lines of equivalence can be drawn on the plot to delineate countries with a higher or lower bed supply. This method is extended to attempt to define the optimum region for bed supply in an effective health care system. England is used as an example of a health system descending into operational chaos due to too few beds and manpower. The former Soviet bloc countries represent a health system overly dependent on hospital beds. Several countries also show evidence of overutilization of hospital beds. The new method is used to define a potential range for bed supply and manpower where the most effective health systems currently reside. The method is applied to total curative beds, medical beds, psychiatric beds, critical care, geriatric care, etc., and can also be used to compare different types of healthcare staff, i.e., nurses, physicians, and surgeons. Issues surrounding the optimum hospital size and the optimum average occupancy will also be discussed. The role of poor policy in the English NHS is used to show how the NHS has been led into a bed crisis. The method is also extended beyond international benchmarking to illustrate how it can be applied at a local or regional level in the process of long-term bed planning. Issues regarding the volatility in hospital admissions are also addressed to explain the need for surge capacity and why an adequate average bed occupancy margin is required for an optimally functioning hospital.

The first use of a photogrammetry drone to estimate population abundance and predict age structure of threatened Sumatran elephants

Wildlife monitoring in tropical rainforests poses additional challenges due to species often being elusive, cryptic, faintly colored, and preferring concealable, or difficult to access habitats. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) prove promising for wildlife surveys in different ecosystems in tropical forests and can be crucial in conserving inaccessible biodiverse areas and their associated species. Traditional surveys that involve infiltrating animal habitats could adversely affect the habits and behavior of elusive and cryptic species in response to human presence. Moreover, collecting data through traditional surveys to simultaneously estimate the abundance and demographic rates of communities of species is often prohibitively time-intensive and expensive. This study assesses the scope of drones to non-invasively access the Bukit Tigapuluh Landscape (BTL) in Riau-Jambi, Indonesia, and detect individual elephants of interest. A rotary-wing quadcopter with a vision-based sensor was tested to estimate the elephant population size and age structure. We developed hierarchical modeling and deep learning CNN to estimate elephant abundance and age structure. Drones successfully observed 96 distinct individuals at 8 locations out of 11 sampling areas. We obtained an estimate of the elephant population of 151 individuals (95% CI [124, 179]) within the study area and predicted more adult animals than subadults and juvenile individuals in the population. Our calculations may serve as a vital spark for innovation for future UAV survey designs in large areas with complex topographies while reducing operational effort.

Targeted indoor residual insecticide applications shift Aedes aegypti age structure and arbovirus transmission potential

While residual insecticide applications have the potential to decrease pathogen transmission by reducing the density of vectors and shifting the age structure of the adult mosquito population towards younger stages of development, this double entomological impact has not been documented for Aedes aegypti. Aedes collected from households enrolled in a cluster-randomized trial evaluating the epidemiological impact of targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) in Merida, Mexico, were dissected and their age structure characterized by the Polovodova combined with Christopher’s ovariole growth methods. In total, 813 females were dissected to characterize age structure at 1, 3, 6, and 9 months post-TIRS. Significant differences in the proportion of nulliparous Ae. aegypti females between the treatment groups was found at one-month post-TIRS (control: 35% vs. intervention: 59%), three months (20% vs. 49%) but not at six or nine months post-TIRS. TIRS significantly shiftted Ae. aegypti age structure towards younger stages and led to a non-linear reduction in survivorship compared to the control arm. Reduced survivorship also reduced the number of arbovirus transmitting females (those who survived the extrinsic incubation period). Our findings provide strong evidence of the full entomological impact of TIRS, with important implications for quantifying the epidemiological impact of vector control methods.

Population Trends in the World and the Asia Pacific Region

This presentation explores the population trends in both the global and Asia-Pacific regions, examining the underlying factors that influence population growth and population age structure. The presentation highlights the importance of understanding fertility rates and their implications to population ageing, particularly in the context of the Asia-Pacific region. Fertility rates have declined in all regions of the world, however there is still substantial diversity across the globe. In high- and middle-income countries, fertility is now at low levels, some at extremely low levels. In low-income countries, the levels of fertility are more variable, with some countries seeing substantial decline, while others have declined, but at a slower rate. Because of low fertility, some countries have seen substantial population ageing in recent decades, and in the absence of migration, are experiencing depopulation. Other countries, buoyed by their migration policies, are ageing at a slower rate, and do not face the implications of a declining population. In the Asia-Pacific region there are substantial demographic shifts underway. The population has been declining in Japan for over 10 years, and is also declining in South Korea and most recently, China. All populations have very low fertility rates, with South Korea the lowest in the world, at 0.8 in 2021. Japan and South Korea also have very low immigration rates. In 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country. While most regions of the world now have low population growth, populations in Africa are still growing rapidly, fuelled by a young population structure. This provides the region with a potential ‘demographic dividend’ which can contribute to economic opportunities. By outlining the drivers of population change, their implications, policy responses, and future challenges, this presentation will provide insights into the complexities of demographic shifts in today’s world.