Trends In Age-standardized Incidence Rates Research Articles

Global, regional, and national burden of preterm birth, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021

Preterm birth and its complications are leading causes of mortality among children under five years of age. Given the increasing burden of preterm birth on neonatal mortality and long-term health outcomes worldwide, a comprehensive global analysis is essential to guide effective public health interventions and policies. This study aims to assess the burden of preterm birth at the global, regional, and national levels. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, this study analysed trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as primary outcomes for preterm birth from 1990 to 2021at global, regional, and national levels. Data were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, decomposition analysis, and the health inequality concentration index. Globally, the incidence, mortality and DALYs due to preterm birth have shown a declining trend, but ASIR started to increase in 2016. Males were more commonly born preterm than females (12329075.82, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 12192632.55-12464605.4 vs. 9224694.94, 95% UI: 9113876.1-9330107.89). Changes in DALYs were primarily due to epidemiological change (111.97%) and population (-21.59%). Low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions increased in annual incidence cases (43.1%, 95% UI: 40.17-46.09), while high SDI regions decreased in annual incidence cases (-9.6%, 95% UI:-11.45 to-7.79). The highest annual mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (295490.66, 95% UI: 241762.78-353624.41) and South Asia (32760273.93, 95% UI: 27295547.76-39070225.69). Western sub-Saharan Africa showed the largest increase in annual incidence (98.95%, 95% UI: 94.77 to 103.09), and Australasia had the lowest annual mortality (287.18, 95% UI: 244.26-339.42) and DALYs (61081.4, 95% UI: 50897.33-73069.96). Western sub-Saharan Africa also had the highest ASMR (21.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.9-25.89). The highest ASIR (543.78, 95% CI: 535.11-553.21) and age-standardized DALYs (2064.65, 95% CI: 1717.27-2473.36) both occurred in South Asia, while the lowest ASIR and age-standardized DALYs were seen in East Asia (147.31, 95% CI: 144.22-150.85) and High-income Asia Pacific (143.32, 95% CI: 117.9-167.25). India, Nigeria, and Pakistan ranked highest globally in terms of annual incidence cases, mortality, and DALYs, while the lowest annual incidence, mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in Tokelau (2.34, 95% UI: 2.12-2.56), San Marino (0.04, 95% UI: 0.02-0.07) and Tokelau (17.22, 95% UI: 11.11-24.95). While the global burden of preterm birth has decreased, significant disparities persist, especially in low SDI regions. There is a need for more refined policies and preventive measures to effectively address preterm birth. No funds, grants, or other support was received.

Global Incidence of Diarrheal Diseases-An Update Using an Interpretable Predictive Model Based on XGBoost and SHAP: A Systematic Analysis.

Diarrheal disease remains a significant public health issue, particularly affecting young children and older adults. Despite efforts to control and prevent these diseases, their incidence continues to be a global concern. Understanding the trends in diarrhea incidence and the factors influencing these trends is crucial for developing effective public health strategies. This study aimed to explore the temporal trends in diarrhea incidence and associated factors from 1990 to 2019 and to project the incidence for the period 2020-2040 at global, regional, and national levels. We aimed to identify key factors influencing these trends to inform future prevention and control strategies. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was used to predict the incidence from 2020 to 2040 based on demographic, meteorological, water sanitation, and sanitation and hygiene indicators. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value was performed to explain the impact of variables in the model on the incidence. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to assess the temporal trends of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) from 1990 to 2019 and from 2020 to 2040. Globally, both incident cases and ASIRs of diarrhea increased between 2010 and 2019. The incident cases are expected to rise from 2020 to 2040, while the ASIRs and incidence rates are predicted to slightly decrease. During the observed (1990-2019) and predicted (2020-2040) periods, adults aged 60 years and above exhibited an upward trend in incidence rate as age increased, while children aged < 5 years consistently had the highest incident cases. The SHAP framework was applied to explain the model predictions. We identified several risk factors associated with an increased incidence of diarrhea, including age over 60 years, yearly precipitation exceeding 3000 mm, temperature above 20 °C for both maximum and minimum values, and vapor pressure deficit over 1500 Pa. A decreased incidence rate was associated with relative humidity over 60%, wind speed over 4 m/s, and populations with above 80% using safely managed drinking water services and over 40% using safely managed sanitation services. Diarrheal diseases are still serious public health concerns, with predicted increases in the incident cases despite decreasing ASIRs globally. Children aged < 5 years remain highly susceptible to diarrheal diseases, yet the incidence rate in the older adults aged 60 plus years still warrants additional attention. Additionally, more targeted efforts to improve access to safe drinking water and sanitation services are crucial for reducing the incidence of diarrheal diseases globally.

Myelodysplastic syndrome/ Myeloproliferative disorder, Nos.

Background: Population-based research is limited for myelodysplastic syndrome/ myeloproliferative neoplasm, not otherwise specified (MDS/MPN-NOS) which comprises a heterogenous group of patients that do not fit into the other established MDS/MPN subgroups. Methods: We identified patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database with a diagnosis of MDS/MPN-U logged from 2010-2020. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated using eight age subgroups. Subgroup analyses were performed for race and gender. Join point regression analyses were performed to model trends in ASIRs, and annual percent change (APC) was calculated. Results: A total of 2447 patients over age 50 were included in analysis. Incidence of MDS/MPN-U increased gradually between 2010-2016 (APC 12.90) then decreased between 2016-2020 (APC -19.56). ASIR was significantly higher in males compared to females in several age groups (age 65-69, 80-84, 85+). Conclusion: The underlying molecular complexity of these diseases remains a significant challenge. It is critical to identify MDS/MPN- specific therapeutic response criteria and suitable end points correlated with survival and AML risk for transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) uniform assessment of treatment benefit.

Global, regional, and national burden of HIV-negative tuberculosis, 1990–2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a major infectious disease with significant public health implications. Its widespread transmission, prolonged treatment duration, notable side effects, and high mortality rate pose severe challenges. This study examines the epidemiological characteristics of TB globally and across major regions, providing a scientific basis for enhancing TB prevention and control measures worldwide.MethodsThe ecological study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. It assessed new incidence cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs), and DALY rates for drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB), multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project ASIR and ASMR.ResultsIn 2021, the global ASIR for all HIV-negative TB was 103.00 per 100,000 population [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 92.21, 114.91 per 100,000 population], declining by 0.40% (95% UI: − 0.43, − 0.38%) compared to 1990. The global ASMR was 13.96 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 12.61, 15.72 per 100,000 population), with a decline of 0.44% (95% UI: − 0.61, − 0.23%) since 1990. The global age-standardized DALY rate for HIV-negative TB was 580.26 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 522.37, 649.82 per 100,000 population), showing a decrease of 0.65% (95% UI: − 0.69, − 0.57 per 100,000 population) from 1990. The global ASIR of MDR-TB has not decreased since 2015, instead, it has shown a slow upward trend in recent years. The ASIR of XDR-TB has exhibited significant increase in the past 30 years. The projections indicate MDR-TB and XDR-TB are expected to see significant increases in both ASIR and ASMR from 2022 to 2035, highlighting the growing challenge of drug-resistant TB.ConclusionsThis study found that the ASIR of MDR-TB and XDR-TB has shown an upward trend in recent years. To reduce the TB burden, it is essential to enhance health infrastructure and increase funding in low-SDI regions. Developing highly efficient, accurate, and convenient diagnostic reagents, along with more effective therapeutic drugs, and improving public health education and community engagement, are crucial for curbing TB transmission.Graphical

Incidence and Survival Outcomes of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

The incidence of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) increased after the implementation of GIST-specific histology coding in 2001, but updated data on trends and survival are lacking. To examine the evolving epidemiology of GISTs in major organ sites. This descriptive, population-based cohort study used nationally representative data from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, including the SEER-22 and SEER-17 registries. Data were from evaluated patients aged 20 years or older with GISTs diagnosed between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2019. Analyses were last updated on October 29, 2023. Organ site-specific trends in age-standardized incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) in rates were estimated by race and ethnicity and, when possible, by sex, age, and primary indicator. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine racial and ethnic differences in overall and GIST-specific survival by site. The SEER-22 and SEER-17 datasets contained 23 001 and 12 109 case patients with GISTs, respectively. Patients in the SEER-22 registry had a mean (SD) age of 64 (13) years and 51.3% were men. With regard to race and ethnicity, 9.7% of patients were Asian or Pacific Islander, 12.3% were Hispanic, 19.6% were non-Hispanic Black, and 57.7% were non-Hispanic White. Overall incidence rates of GISTs in the SEER-22 cohort increased substantially over time for all organ sites but the colon (APCs: esophagus, 7.3% [95% CI, 4.4% to 10.2%]; gastric, 5.1% [95% CI, 4.2% to 6.1%]; small intestine, 2.7% [95% CI, 1.8% to 3.7%]; colon, -0.2% [95% CI, -1.3% to 0.9%]; and rectum, 1.9% [95% CI, 0.1% to 3.8%]). There were similar increasing trends by age groups (<50 vs ≥50 years), sex, race and ethnicity, and primary indicator for gastric and small intestine GISTs. Increases were mainly restricted to localized stage disease. Patients in the SEER-17 cohort had a mean (SD) age of 64 (14) years and 51.9% were men. With regard to race and ethnicity, 13.3% of patients were Asian or Pacific Islander, 11.6% were Hispanic, 17.8% were non-Hispanic Black, and 56.6% were non-Hispanic White. Non-Hispanic Black individuals had higher overall mortality for esophageal (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 6.4 [95% CI, 2.0 to 20.3]) and gastric (adjusted HR, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.5]) GISTs compared with non-Hispanic White individuals. Asian or Pacific Islander individuals also had higher overall mortality for esophageal GISTs (adjusted HR, 5.6 [95% CI, 1.5 to 20.2]). Results were similar for GIST-specific survival. In this cohort study using SEER data, the incidence of GISTs in major organ sites increased in the last 2 decades among several population groups. These findings suggest that additional studies are warranted to identify risk factors, because histologic reclassification and higher availability of endoscopy and imaging do not fully explain these unfavorable incidence trends. Prevention efforts are needed to reduce the substantial survival disparities among racial and ethnic minoritized populations.

Temporal trends of ischemic stroke attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Currently ischemic stroke poses a serious disease burden globally, and high fasting plasma glucose is one of the important risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the disease burden of ischemic stroke due to fasting glucose during 1990-2019 in China, to estimate the effect of age, period, and cohort on the trend of ischemic stroke disease burden, and to predict the disease burden of ischemic stroke in 2020-2030. Ischemic stroke burden data were obtained by screening from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) database for high-risk populations in China. Annual average percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using the Joinpoint regression model to assess the trend of ischemic stroke burden between 1990 and 2019. Age-period-cohort models were introduced to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on ischemic stroke burden, and to predict the ischemic stroke burden in 2020-2030 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort models. From 1990 to 2019, the number of ischemic stroke deaths due to high fasting plasma glucose in China continued to increase with an AAPC of 3.61. Trends in age-standardized incidence rates did not show statistical significance. In the age-period-cohort analysis, the age effect of ischemic stroke burden showed a continuously increasing trend over the study period. The period effect showed an overall favorable trend over the study period. The overall and cohort effects for males showed an overall increasing trend, whereas the cohort effect for females showed a decreasing trend after a decreasing trend for the 1945 birth cohort. This study found that ischemic stroke due to high fasting plasma glucose in China has generally fluctuated between 1990 and 2019, with a decreasing trend in recent years, and projections also suggest that it will continue to show a decreasing trend in the future. Age and period of birth were the main elements influencing the burden of disease, especially among the elderly and men. Policies should be used to promote the prevention of known risk factors and to strengthen health management for key populations.

The global burden and risk factors of cardiovascular diseases in adolescent and young adults, 1990–2019

BackgroundTo provide details of the burden and the trend of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its risk factors in adolescent and young adults.MethodsAge-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were used to describe the burden of CVD in adolescents and young adults. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) of ASRs were used to describe the trend from 1990 to 2019. Risk factors were calculated by Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs).ResultsIn 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of CVD were 129.85 per 100 000 (95% Confidence interval (CI): 102.60, 160.31), 15.12 per 100 000 (95% CI: 13.89, 16.48) and 990.64 per 100 000 (95% CI: 911.06, 1076.46). The highest ASRs were seen in low sociodemographic index (SDI) and low-middle SDI regions. The burden was heavier in male and individuals aged 35–39. From 1990 to 2019, 72 (35.29%) countries showed an increasing trend of ASIR and more than 80% countries showed a downward trend in ASMR and ASDR. Rheumatic heart disease had the highest ASIR and Ischemic Heart Disease was the highest in both ASMR and ASDR. The main attributable risk factor for death and DALYs were high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index and high LDL cholesterol.ConclusionsThe burden of CVD in adolescent and young adults is a significant global health challenge. It is crucial to take into account the disparities in SDI levels among countries, gender and age characteristics of the population, primary types of CVD, and the attributable risk factors when formulating and implementing prevention strategies.

Incidence, mortality and survival rates of lip, oral cavity and salivary glands cancers in Singapore: A half-century time trend analysis (1968-2017).

To examine trends in incidence and mortality and evaluate overall survival (OS) of oral cancer in Singapore between 1968 and 2017. All diagnosed oral cancers by anatomical sites and population size were extracted from the Singapore Cancer Registry and the Department of Statistics Singapore. The trend of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) (per 100 000 person-years) of the lip, oral cavity and salivary gland cancers were evaluated by Prais-Winsten regressions for each ethnicity and gender. Kaplan-Meier curves were performed to evaluate the OS by anatomical sites in each age group by ethnicity and sex. Overall, 49, 3494 and 1066 people were diagnosed, and 28, 2310 and 476 died from lip, oral cavity and salivary gland cancers, respectively. The oral cavity cancer ASIR and ASMR reduced from 3.07 (1968-1972) to 2.01(2008-2012) and from 2.06 (1978-1982) to 1.21 (2013-2017) per 100 000 person-years, respectively, with both highest in Indians throughout the whole period. Male:Female ratio ranged from 3.43 (1973-1977) to 1.75 (2013-2017) and from 3.41 (1978-1982) to 2.40 (2013-2017) for ASIR and ASMR, respectively. However, both salivary gland cancer ASIR and ASMR increased from 0.50 (1968-1972) to 0.80 (2008-2012) and from 0.18 (1968-1982) to 0.42 (1988-1992) per 100 000 person-years, respectively, with both higher in males since 1993. Oral cavity cancer ASIR decreased for males aged ≥60, and Indian females ≥25, but increased among Chinese females aged ≥60. Oral cavity cancer ASMR decreased among Chinese aged 25-59, and among Malay males and Indian females. Salivary gland cancer ASIR increased among Chinese males aged ≥60 and Malay males aged 25-59; while ASMR increased among Chinese males aged ≥60. The median OS for oral cavity, lip and salivary gland cancers were 3.0, 9.3 and 18.1 years, respectively, with females surviving longer than males. Singapore has experienced a decline in the incidence and mortality of lip, oral cancer, an increase in in the incidence and mortality of salivary gland cancer, with an increase in the median overall survival rate. Monitoring the magnitude of oral cancer burden and the demographic, and temporal variations is necessary for tailoring health planning and setting priorities for future clinical care and research.

Global burden and risk factors of gastritis and duodenitis: an observational trend study from 1990 to 2019

In recent years, there has been a global trend of aging, which has resulted in significant changes to the burden of gastritis and duodenitis (GD). Using the global burden of disease (GBD) database spanning 1990 to 2019, we evaluated the temporal trends of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates (ASDR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (AS-DALYs) for GD using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Additionally, we examined the burden of GD across various strata, including social demographic index (SDI), age, and sex. Finally, the risk factors linked to the incidence and mortality of GD, utilizing Pearson correlation analysis. In 2019, there were 31 million GD patients globally, a notable increase of 12 million from 1990, while the ASIR, ASDR, and AS-DALYs for GD all showed a decrease. Correlation analysis showed a significant negative relationship between ASIR and SDI. Factors like hand hygiene and vitamin A deficiency had significant positive correlations with ASIR and ASDR in 2019. Over the past thirty years, the burden of GD has increased alongside global population aging. Future efforts should focus on exploring prevention for GD, with special attention to the elderly population in low SDI regions.

Trends in age-standardized incidence rates of depression in adolescents aged 10–24 in 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2019

BackgroundThe objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution and temporal trends in the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of depression in adolescents aged 10–24 worldwide. MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 were analyzed, adopting Sawyer's broad definition of adolescence encompassing ages 10 to 24. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to assess temporal trends. ResultsGlobally, from 1990 to 2019, there was a decrease in the ASIR of depression in adolescents (EAPC = −0.23). Notably, this decrease was more pronounced in female adolescents compared to their male counterparts (EAPC = −0.12 and − 0.29, respectively). Conversely, high Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions experienced a significant increase in the ASIR of depression among adolescents (EAPC = 0.87). Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that individuals aged 20–24 exhibited the highest incidence rate for depression followed by those aged 15–19 and then those aged 10–14. The largest increases in the ASIRs of depression occurred in High-income North America (EAPC = 1.19) and Malaysia (EAPC = 2.4), respectively. LimitationsMathematical models were used to reconstruct and adjust data of different qualities, which might have introduced bias. ConclusionsThe global burden of disease for depression among adolescents aged 10–24 years declined from 1990 to 2019. Special attention must be paid to older adolescents and areas with higher SDIs.

Measurement of the burdens of neonatal disorders in 204 countries, 1990-2019: a global burden of disease-based study.

Neonatal disorders are facing serious public health challenges. Previous studies were based on limited data sources and had a narrow geographical scope. We aim to understand the trends of alteration in the burden of neonatal disorders from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories. Data were investigated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. First, we visualized the burden of neonatal disorders using the number of cases and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), death rate (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (ASR-DALYs) from 1990 to 2019. Second, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to evaluate the temporal trends of disease burden during different periods. Finally, the sociodemographic index (SDI) and human development index (HDI) were used to determine whether there exists a correlation between socioeconomic development level, human development level, and potential burden consequences. Overall, in the past 30 years, the ASIR trends have remained relatively steady, whereas the ASDR and ASR-DALYs have declined. However, the burden of neonatal disorders varied greatly in various regions and countries. Among 21 regions, the ASIR trend had the largest increase in Central Latin America (EAPC = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.33-0.50). Conversely, the ASDR and ASR-DALYs experienced the largest decrease in Central Europe (EAPC = -5.10, 95%CI = -5.28 to 4.93) and East Asia (EAPC = -4.07, 95%CI = -4.41 to 3.73), respectively. Among 204 countries, the ASIR (EAPC = 3.35, 95%CI = 3.13-3.56) trend in Greece displayed the most significant increase, while the ASDR (EAPC = 1.26, 95%CI = 1.01-1.50) and ASR-DALYs (EAPC = 1.26, 95%CI = 1.03-1.49) trends in Dominica experienced the most substantial increase. Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between the EAPCs in ASIR, ASDR, ASR-DALYs, and SDI or HDI in 2019, with some exceptions. In addition, countries with elevated levels of HDI experienced a faster increase in ASDR and ASR-DALYs for neonatal disorders. Although the burden of neonatal disorders shows a downward trend from 1990 to 2019, it is still not optimistic. It is necessary to implement a multi-pronged approach to reduce the increasing burden of neonatal disorders.

Trends in gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Asia and association analysis with human development index, 1990-2019

ObjectivesTo describe the epidemiological time trends and gender, age and regional differences of gastric cancer in Asia during 1990–2019, and to analyze the association between the human development index (HDI) and the statistical indicators of the burden of disease. MethodsDescribing trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in Asia from 1990 to 2019 based on GBD-reported population-based surveillance of gastric cancer in Asia. Obtained ASIR, ASMR, and mortality to incidence ratios (MIR) for gastric cancer in different countries in 2019, with association analysis by Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric test. ResultsThe annual percentage change in ASIR and ASMR in Asia from 1990 to 2019 was − 1.20% and − 1.91%. Male gastric cancer patients have higher ASIR and ASMR than female gastric cancer patients. Decreasing trends in ASIR and ASMR for the total population in five Asian regions. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual change in ASMR was − 2.45%, − 1.43%, − 0.53%, − 0.62%, and − 0.27% for Central Asia, East Asia, high-income Asia-Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively (p < 0.05). Both incidence and mortality were concentrated in the age groups of 85–89 and 89–94 years. Classifying Asian countries into different levels of HDI, only MIR was associated with HDI levels. ConclusionASIR and ASMR of gastric cancer in the total population, different regions, and countries in Asia from 1990 to 2019 showed an overall decreasing trend. The MIR index is suggestive of survival rates and the role of cancer care in individual countries. Asian countries should develop different strategies for gastric cancer screening and prevention according to high-risk age, high-risk gender and HDI.

Trends and projections of the burden of osteoarthritis disease in China and globally: A comparative study of the 2019 global burden of disease database

This study aims to characterize the burden of osteoarthritis in China and globally from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden for the next decade. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database is designed to assess the burden of various diseases and injuries on a global scale. Age-standardized rate data for the incidence, prevalence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) of osteoarthritis in both China and the global context were extracted. Furthermore, the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to illustrate the long-term trends in the burden of osteoarthritis disease was calculated. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to forecast the trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR) for osteoarthritis in China and globally for the next 11 years. Knee osteoarthritis showed a changing trend of ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR from 1990 to 2019 in China, initially decreasing and then increasing. In contrast, global osteoarthritis exhibited a relatively stable overall trend over three decades. Knee osteoarthritis exhibited the highest incidence, prevalence, and YLDs across various age groups and genders. The ARIMA forecast indicated a slight upward trend in osteoarthritis burden in China and globally over the next 11 years. Osteoarthritis poses a significant health issue, emphasizing the need to enhance awareness and management of osteoarthritis among the population and policymakers, particularly focusing on the elderly and female populations.

The burden and trends of headache disorders among the population aged 15–39: a study from 1990 to 2019

Abstract Background To analyze the global burden of headache disorders in adolescents and young adults (AYAs). Methods Data of headache disorders in the 15–39 age groups were extracted from GBD 2019. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) rate were used to describe the burden. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) were used to describe the trend from 1990 to 2019. Results In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR) in AYAs were 42,473.18 (95% CI: 34,836.35, 50,858.30) per 100,000, 12,566.18 (95% CI: 8542.10, 16,915.68) per 100,000 and 790.32 (95% CI: 129.56, 1786.52) per 100,000, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the ASRs showed increasing trends, with EAPCs of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.06), 0.05 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.07), and 0.08 (95% CI: 0.07, 0.10). Migraine accounted for 91.54% of headache-related YLDs. The burdens in females were higher than those in males, especially for ASYR. This burden was greatest in the high sociodemographic index (SDI) super region. In the temporal trend of ASIR, 127 (62.25%) countries showed upward trends, mainly distributed in East Asia, Central Asia, West Africa, and Western Latin America. Conclusions The burden of headache disorders in the global population aged 15–39 is severe, especially among females and in countries with high SDI. Furthermore, this burden has been steadily increasing over the past three decades. Those findings assist in implementing targeted intervention measures.

Long-term trend of future Cancer onset: A model-based prediction of Cancer incidence and onset age by region and gender.

Objectives: This study provided estimates of cancer incidence rate and onset age by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions and gender from 2020 to 2040, aiming to clarify the long-term patterns of future cancer onset.Method: Based on the incidence data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study, we constructed the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of cancers from 2020 to 2040. Using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify the trends of ASIR and the onset age. In addition, the incidences in 2019 were fixed to distinguish the age onset changes caused by demographic and incidence from 2020 to 2040.Results: Globally, two-thirds of cancers have escalating trends of incidence rate, and the proportion of cancer weighted average onset age above 60 years old will grow from 62% to 76% between 2020 and 2040. In five SDI regions, the proportion of weighted average onset age above 60 years old will rise above 10% in the next 20 years and increase sequentially with the rise of the SDI level. Preclude sex-specific cancers, the onset age is younger in men than in women in 2040. Rule out the influence of changing demographics, half of cancer's morbidity has a youth-oriented tendency globally, which is concentrated in hormone-related and digestive tract cancer.Conclusion: From 2020 to 2040, the incidence and onset age changes demonstrate marked geographic and gender variations in the cancer spectrum. Cancer incidence and onset age are predicted to continuously increase worldwide in the future.

Secular trends of morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in five Asian countries from 1990 to 2019 and their predictions to 2035.

The rising burden of thyroid cancer (TC) is a public health problem in Asia. Predicting the future burden of TC in Asian countries is essential for disease prevention. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 for five Asian countries. We applied Bayesian age-period-cohort models to predict morbidity and mortality to 2035 and calculated age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Furthermore, the estimated annual percentage change was calculated to evaluate the variation of ASIR and ASMR. By 2035, predictions suggest that cases of TC will reach 75.56 × 103 in China, 70.22 × 103 in India, 15.78 × 103 in the Republic of Korea, 9.01 × 103 in Japan and 5.55 × 103 in Thailand, respectively. Except Japan, a significant upward trend of ASIR of TC will be observed in five Asian countries. The deaths from TC will increase in five countries and India will become the highest reaching 14.07 × 103 . The ASMR will rise to 0.83/100 000 in India and 1.06/100 000 in the Republic of Korea, while it will drop to 0.35/100 000 in China, 0.43/100 000 in Japan and 0.50/100 000 in Thailand. In further predictions projected by sex, the growth rate of ASIR is reported higher in males than in females among most countries. ASMR of male will exceed that of females in China and Thailand by 2035. The disease burden caused by TC will further increase in five Asian countries, especially for men. It is necessary to develop more rational and timely disease prevention and manage strategies facing this disease trend.

International patterns and trends in the incidence of melanoma and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, 1989-2020.

Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) and melanoma have different associations with sun exposure. To compare trends in the incidence rates of cSCC and melanoma, to provide insight into changing patterns of exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR). We compared trends in the incidence of cSCC and melanoma in seven susceptible populations residing at mid-to-high latitudes: Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Scotland, the Netherlands and Tasmania (Australia). We fitted Joinpoint models to describe trends in age-standardized incidence rates for melanoma and cSCC and calculated the average annual percentage rate of change for the period 1989-2020 (1989-2018 for Tasmania). We calculated the incident rate ratio (IRR) as the ratio of the age-standardized rates (European Standard Population) for cSCC to melanoma and conducted age-period-cohort modelling to compare age, period and cohort effects. The ratio of cSCC-to-melanoma incidence increased with proximity to the equator and over time. In the most recent time period, the incidence of cSCC was higher than the incidence of melanoma for men and women in all seven populations. While the ratio of cSCC-to-melanoma incidence was higher for men vs. women, in most countries the cSCC-to-melanoma IRR increased over time to a greater extent in women than in men. Melanoma incidence was higher among younger people and cSCC incidence was higher among older people; the age at which the incidence of cSCC overtook the incidence of melanoma was progressively younger with proximity to the equator. Despite concerted international efforts to preserve the ozone layer over the past four decades resulting in significant reductions in surface ultraviolet B at mid-latitudes, the incidence of skin cancer, particularly cSCC, continues to rise in those regions. Our findings are consistent with a stronger association with age-associated cumulative sun exposure for cSCC vs. melanoma and suggest that women are currently receiving greater UV radiation exposure than in the past.

Global burden and trends of ectopic pregnancy: An observational trend study from 1990 to 2019.

Ectopic pregnancy (EP) is one of the leading causes of death in women in early pregnancy, and the mortality of EP have gradually decreased over time in developed countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States. However, epidemiological information on EP has been lacking in recent years, so we analyzed EP data over a thirty-year period from 1990-2019 with the help of Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) data to fill this gap. According to the EP data in GBD for the three decades from 1990 to 2019, we used estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) to assess the trend of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized disability adjusted life years (AS-DALYs) trends in EP and to explore the correlation between socio-demographic index (SDI) stratification, age stratification and EP. Global ASIR, ASDR, AS-DALYs for EP in 2019 are 170.33/100,000 persons (95% UI: 133.18 to 218.49), 0.16/100,000 persons (95% UI, 0.14 to 0.19) and 9.69/100,000 persons (95% UI, 8.27 to 11.31), respectively. At the overall level, ASDR is significantly negatively correlated with SDI values (R = -0.699, p < 0.001). Besides that, ASDR and AS-DALYs have basically the same pattern. In addition, iron deficiency is one of the risk factors for EP. In the past three decades, the morbidity, mortality and disease burden of EP have gradually decreased. It is noteworthy that some economically disadvantaged areas are still experiencing an increase in all indicators, therefore, it is more important to strengthen the protection of women from ethnic minorities and low-income groups.

Temporal and age-specific trends in incidence and 1-year case-fatality of hospitalized ischaemic stroke in Victoria, Australia

ObjectivesInvestigate temporal and age-specific trends in the incidence of ischaemic stroke and case-fatality risk in Victoria, Australia. Materials and methodsPatients hospitalised with first ischaemic stroke between 2012 and 2018 were included. Trends in age-standardised incidence rates of ischaemic stroke were assessed using linear regression models. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the case-fatality risk. ResultsOverall age-standardised incidence of ischaemic stroke was stable from 2012/13 to 2017/18 (87.6 to 84.8 events per 100,000 population; Annual percentage change [APC] -0.32; 95% Confidence interval [CI] -1.13 to 0.50). The incidence declined in females (APC -1.00; 95% CI -1.49 to -0.50), people aged 75-84 years (APC -1.60; 95% CI -2.83 to -0.36) and in metropolitan areas (APC -0.74; 95% CI -1.02 to -0.45). The risk of 1-year case-fatality (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.93) significantly declined in 2016/17 compared to 2012/13. ConclusionsOverall ischaemic stroke incidence remained stable while decreasing trends were observed in females, elderly and metropolitan areas. 1-year case-fatality declined from 2012 to 2017.

Burden and trends of iodine deficiency in Asia from 1990 to 2019

ObjectivesUnderstanding iodine deficiency (ID) burdens and trends in Asia can help guide effective intervention strategies. This study aims to report the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ID in 48 Asian countries during the period 1990–2019. Study designData on ID were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 and estimated by age, sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI). MethodsThe estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate the changing trend of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) related to ID during the period 1990–2019. ResultsIn Asia, there were 126,983,965.8 cases with 5,466,213.1 new incidence and 1,765,995.5 DALYs of ID in 2019. Between 1999 and 2019, the EAPC in ASIR, ASPR and ASDR were −0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], −0.8 to −0.4), −0.9 (95% CI, −1.2 to −0.7), and −1.6 (95% CI, −1.8 to −1.5), respectively. Malaysia charted the largest decrease in ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR (82.4%, 85.3%, and 80.9% separately), whereas the Philippines and Pakistan were the only two countries that witnessed an increase in ASIR and ASPR. ID burdens were more pronounced in women, countries located to the south of the Himalayas, and low-middle SDI regions. ConclusionsThe incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of ID in Asia substantially decreased from 1990 to 2019. Women and low-middle SDI countries have relatively high ID burdens. Governments need to pay constant attention to the implementation and monitoring of universal salt iodization.