Introduction: Early diagnosis of AF via screening might prevent strokes. AF screening is endorsed in certain guidelines for individuals aged ≥65 years, yet many modalities and strategies exist. Determining the comparative effectiveness of contemporary screening strategies is critical to inform population-based screening interventions. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model to evaluate 45 distinct AF screening strategies (defined using different modalities and screening intervals), and compared them to no screening within 50 million individuals matching the United States population aged ≥65 years. The primary outcome was quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with incident stroke, major bleeding, and AF true and false positive rates as secondary outcomes. Results: A total of 11 AF screening strategies were effective when compared to no screening (100-1200 QALYs gained per 100,000 individuals screened, Figure ). Of 11 effective strategies, 7 (63.6%) utilized wrist-worn wearables. Effective strategies reduced stroke incidence by 0.1-0.2/1,000 person-years [PY] (number needed to screen to prevent stroke 5,000-10,000), but increased major bleeding by 0.2-0.6/1,000 PY (number needed to screen to cause major bleed 1,667-5,000). Repeated screening with discrete modalities tended to reduce effectiveness by accruing false positives without substantial gain in true AF diagnoses, while increasing the monitoring duration using wrist-worn wearables increased effectiveness as long as a confirmatory test was utilized. Sensitivity analyses identified test specificity as a highly influential parameter on screening effectiveness. Conclusions: Population-based AF screening is likely effective when specific strategies are utilized. Wrist-worn wearables appear to be an important modality for effective clinician-guided AF screening. Future technological development should focus on maximizing specificity for AF detection.
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