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Articles published on Addo Elephant National Park

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  • Research Article
  • 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103279
Land-cover classification in Addo Elephant National Park: Analyzing the impact of variables, classifiers, and object-based approach
  • Dec 1, 2025
  • Ecological Informatics
  • Mohammad Safaei + 6 more

Land-cover classification in Addo Elephant National Park: Analyzing the impact of variables, classifiers, and object-based approach

  • Research Article
  • 10.3957/056.055.0349
Elephant Engineers: Unravelling how Elephants Influence Mammalian Communities in Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • African Journal of Wildlife Research
  • Jessica Comley + 2 more

Elephants, as ecosystem engineers, significantly modify vegetation structure, making them ideal subjects for studying habitat-mediated effects on biodiversity. The habitat heterogeneity hypothesis posits that structurally complex habitats enhance species diversity by providing varied resources. Understanding factors shaping animal community composition is crucial for conservation. Our study examined the impact of African elephant presence on mammalian community composition in the Albany Thicket Biome of the Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We studied 12 sites with varying elephant exposure durations (62, 32, 7, and 0 years), with three sites per treatment. Vegetation complexity at each site was quantified using a modified Point-Centre-Quarter method, while a camera trap recorded mammalian species presence over a year (August 2017 – August 2018), providing data on species occurrence and distribution. One-way analyses of variance revealed that sites without elephants (0 years) had significantly higher vegetation complexity, than sites with longer elephant exposure. However, elephant presence did not significantly influence mammalian species richness or Shannon diversity. These results suggest that while elephants significantly alter vegetation structure, their indirect effects on mammal communities warrant further investigation. Our work highlights the need for long-term monitoring to assess potential species-specific responses and to inform conservation strategies that balance elephant management with broader ecosystem resilience.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.1007/s10531-025-03140-8
Landscape connectivity for biodiversity conservation: a mammal-based multi-species corridor approach for the Eden to addo corridor initiative, South Africa
  • Sep 1, 2025
  • Biodiversity and Conservation
  • Daan Lichtenberg + 8 more

Abstract Biodiversity conservation is increasingly dependent on maintaining landscape connectivity, particularly in regions facing rapid habitat fragmentation due to expanding and intensifying urbanisation and agriculture. We applied a structured multi-species framework to model ecological connectivity between three mega-reserves ( Addo Elephant National Park, Baviaanskloof Mega-Reserve, Garden Route National Park) in South Africa, integrating expert-derived resistance surfaces with two widely used modelling approaches: circuit theory and least-cost path analysis. Resistance layers were parameterised through expert questionnaires for the nine selected species representing a range of ecological roles and requirements, capturing key landscape features influencing mammal mobility. A multi-species connectivity network was generated by integrating Circuitscape and Linkage Mapper outputs. The results identified 40 potential corridors, comprising areas with a low to moderate human footprint, though agriculture and roads remain significant anthropogenic barriers. Strong connectivity potential was observed among all mega-reserves, with neighbouring protected areas frequently acting as stepping stones. While some corridors align with the 2018 National Protected Area Expansion Strategy, others present previously unidentified connectivity pathways. However, significant challenges remain for the establishment and long-term sustainability of these corridors, including landowner participation and financial feasibility. This study provides a structured framework for multi-species corridor planning in South Africa, offering insights for conservation practitioners aiming to enhance landscape connectivity to achieve regional and national biodiversity conservation objectives.

  • Research Article
  • 10.53973/jopa.2025.60.3.a17
Beyond Boundaries: Community Participation in Environmental Conservation at Addo Elephant National Park
  • Sep 1, 2025
  • Journal of Public Administration
  • Nontle Handi + 1 more

Beyond Boundaries: Community Participation in Environmental Conservation at Addo Elephant National Park

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.3389/fcosc.2025.1646126
Exploring community participation in environmental conservation: insights from Addo Elephant National Park in South Africa
  • Aug 15, 2025
  • Frontiers in Conservation Science
  • Zamikhaya Gladwell Gotyi + 1 more

IntroductionProtected areas (PAs) are central to global biodiversity conservation as they preserve nature, ecosystems, and cultural values. In South Africa, PAs were historically governed through top-down, exclusionary models rooted in colonial legacies that prioritized ecological protection over community rights and knowledge. This approach limited local access, fostered resentment, and increased management challenges such as poaching. Subsequently, conservation discourse has shifted toward participatory governance, community-based natural resource management (CBNRM), and co-management to promote more equitable and sustainable outcomes. This study explores the extent and nature of local community participation in environmental conservation at Addo Elephant National Park in South Africa, using the lens of Community-Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM). MethodThis was a qualitative case study research, which used purposive and convenient sampling techniques to recruit a sample of 34 participants. Interviews, focus groups and field observations were used to collect data from the participants, which was then thematically analysed.ResultsFindings reveal a tripartite model of community engagement: structured involvement through local NGOs, government-led initiatives such as the Extended Public Works Programme, and isolated voluntary actions driven by cultural values. DiscussionWhile formal participation programmes provide economic incentives that mobilize participation, individual efforts, particularly among women, reflect a deep-rooted, intrinsic commitment to environmental stewardship. The study concludes that sustainable conservation requires an integrated approach that combines institutional support with recognition of informal, culturally embedded practices.

  • Open Access Icon
  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.1002/ece3.70640
A Highly Divergent Mitochondrial Genome in Extant Cape Buffalo From Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa.
  • Jan 1, 2025
  • Ecology and evolution
  • Deon De Jager + 6 more

The reduced cost of next-generation sequencing (NGS) has allowed researchers to generate nuclear and mitochondrial genome data to gain deeper insights into the phylogeography, evolutionary history and biology of non-model species. While the Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer caffer) has been well-studied across its range with traditional genetic markers over the last 25 years, researchers are building on this knowledge by generating whole genome, population-level data sets to improve understanding of the genetic composition and evolutionary history of the species. Using publicly available NGS data, we assembled 40 Cape buffalo mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) from four protected areas in South Africa, expanding the geographical range and almost doubling the number of mitogenomes available for this species. Coverage of the mitogenomes ranged from 154 to 1036X. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity for Kruger National Park (n = 15) and Mokala National Park (n = 5) were similar to diversity levels in southern and eastern Africa. Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (n = 15) had low levels of genetic diversity, with only four haplotypes detected, reflecting its past bottleneck. Addo Elephant National Park (n = 5) had the highest nucleotide diversity of all populations across Africa, which was unexpected, as it is known to have low nuclear diversity. This diversity was driven by a highly divergent mitogenome from one sample, which was subsequently identified in another sample via Sanger sequencing of the cytochrome b gene. Using a fossil-calibrated phylogenetic analysis, we estimated that this lineage diverged from all other Cape buffalo lineages approximately 2.51 million years ago. We discuss several potential sources of this mitogenome but propose that it most likely originated through introgressive hybridisation with an extinct buffalo species, either S. acoelotus or S. antiquus. We conclude by discussing the conservation consequences of this finding for the Addo Elephant National Park population, proposing careful genetic management to prevent inbreeding depression while maintaining this highly unique diversity.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.69649/pachyderm.v65i.1296
Pleistocene fossil elephant tracks in the Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa
  • Nov 25, 2024
  • Pachyderm
  • Charles Helm + 5 more

Fossilized elephant tracks, along with other vertebrate tracks, have been identified at several sites in the coastal Woody Cape section of the Addo Elephant National Park, in South Africa’s Eastern Cape Province. The tracks occur in aeolianites (cemented dunes). The track-bearing unit has been dated to 126 ± 8 ka, at approximately the boundary between the Middle Pleistocene and Late Pleistocene. In all probability, the trackmaker was the African savannah elephant (Loxodonta africana). Viewed in conjunction with the 35 elephant track sites that have been identified on South Africa’s Cape south coast, a widespread Pleistocene elephant presence can be inferred, which is not obvious from the body fossil record. Collaboration with Park management is aimed at developing an interpretive exhibit, which can be complemented by the physical recovery and exhibition of suitable fossilized elephant tracks or the creation of replicas using photogrammetry data.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.4102/koedoe.v66i2.1786
Pleistocene ichnological geoheritage in national parks on the Cape coast
  • Aug 30, 2024
  • Koedoe
  • Charles W Helm + 10 more

Aeolianites and cemented beach deposits on South Africa’s Cape coast preserve evidence of events that transpired on them when they were composed of unconsolidated sand. Over the past decades, numerous Pleistocene vertebrate tracksites have been identified on aeolianite palaeosurfaces in the Garden Route National Park, West Coast National Park, and Addo Elephant National Park. In the Garden Route National Park alone, 57 Pleistocene vertebrate tracksites have been discovered. An equilibrium exists, whereby new sites become exposed through cliff-collapse events, while known sites slump into the ocean, are eroded through the action of wind and water, or are destroyed through wave action. Engraved graffiti poses a further threat. These sites complement the traditional body fossil record, and have significant palaeoenvironmental and palaeoanthropological implications. Hominin sites are of global importance: one contains the oldest tracks attributed to Homo sapiens, others contain patterns made in sand by ancestral humans and constitutes a form of early palaeoart. Collectively, these sites have substantial geoheritage value. The discoveries create management questions: which sites require active management, and how should they be ranked in importance? Factors which need to be considered in developing a management strategy include the scientific and heritage value of the sites, whether recovery or replication is preferable, the presence or absence of suitable repositories, the level of the threat to site integrity, the accessibility of the site, and the feasibility of recovery. Checklists containing appropriate criteria and questions can form tools in assessing the importance of these ichnosites.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.1111/csp2.13214
Using spatial capture‐recapture models to estimate spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta) population density and assess the influence of sex‐specific covariates on space use and detection probability
  • Aug 6, 2024
  • Conservation Science and Practice
  • Marna Visagie + 3 more

Abstract Despite being resident or reintroduced to multiple South African protected areas, spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta) have been subject to limited population monitoring and are not managed in the same intensive way as other large carnivores. Considering the species' significant influence on ecosystem processes, robust estimates of population density are necessary to inform conservation management. In this study, we ran a single‐season camera trap survey in the Main Camp section of Addo Elephant National Park (Addo), South Africa, and used spatial capture‐recapture (SCR) models to estimate spotted hyaena population density. Spotted hyaena density was estimated to be 11.13 (± SE 1.96) individuals/100 km2, with an estimated abundance of 37 (± SE 6.44) individuals. Using our database of sexed spotted hyaena individuals, we found no significant difference for sex‐specific SCR parameters (baseline encounter probability and spatial scale parameter), suggesting the incorporation of sex‐specific information may not be as necessary for spotted hyaena as it is for territorial felids and other species with more pronounced differences in range size. Spotted hyaena density in Addo was comparable to previous SCR studies and towards the higher end of known densities. Our estimate provides an important baseline for monitoring reintroduction success in Addo, and we advocate for increased SCR monitoring of spotted hyaena in South African protected areas to inform a metapopulation approach to the species' management.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.4102/koedoe.v66i1.1806
River hydrology mediates fish invasions in Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa
  • May 20, 2024
  • KOEDOE - African Protected Area Conservation and Science
  • Darragh J Woodford + 3 more

Invasive freshwater fish can often have severe negative effects on native fishes in river systems. The interactions between hydrology and habitat variability can mediate the speed and success of individual invasions and the consequent impact on biodiversity. The rivers within Addo Elephant National Park (AENP) in the Eastern Cape, South Africa experience cyclical droughts and wet periods and as a result are naturally episodic. These rivers were recently invaded by three non-native species, the invasive largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) as well as the extralimital sharptooth catfish (Clarias gariepinus) and Mozambique tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus). Monitoring of key sampling sites along two rivers over a 12-year period that included two major droughts revealed unexpected patterns in the spread of these species and their interactions with native fishes. On the Coerney River, C. gariepinus repeatedly invaded and was extirpated from a seasonal reach of the river, wherein O. mossambicus was only occasionally captured. On the Wit River, two apparently independent introductions of M. salmoides in the lower and upper reaches of the river resulted in patchy habitat occupancy over the course of 12 years. While C. gariepinus regularly co-occurred with native species, M. salmoides appeared to locally extirpate the endangered Eastern Cape redfin (Pseudobarbus afer). During drought, both species persisted in close but disconnected pools, suggesting that the episodic hydrology and geomorphology of these rivers may offer temporary predation refugia for native species during drought.Conservation implications: Drought in episodic rivers can mitigate against the impact and spread of freshwater invasions within protected areas. Effects of drying on invasion corridors and spatial interactions with native species should be taken into consideration when managing such invasions. Severe droughts also offer an opportunity to actively control invasive species when they are confined to accessible drought refugia within the protected area.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 3
  • 10.1111/jfb.15781
Marine predators segregate interspecifically by space and time in a sheltered coastal bay.
  • May 9, 2024
  • Journal of fish biology
  • Taryn S Murray + 5 more

Marine predators are vital to the healthy functioning of coastal ecosystems, but to understand their roles, it is necessary to elucidate their movement ecology, particularly in relation to one another. A decade's worth of acoustic telemetry data (2011-2020) from Algoa Bay, South Africa, was investigated to determine how two mesopredatory species (teleosts: dusky kob Argyrosomus japonicus, n = 11, and leervis Lichia amia, n = 16) and two top predatory species (sharks: ragged-tooth sharks Carcharias taurus, n = 45, and white sharks Carcharodon carcharias, n = 31) used and shared this bay ecosystem. Multi-annual seasonal fidelity to the bay was exhibited by all species, but differences in residency were observed among species. Similarly, species used space in the bay differently-the teleosts moved less and had movements restricted to the central and western inshore regions of the bay. Conversely, the sharks roamed more, but detections were concentrated in the western part of the bay for C. taurus and in the eastern part of the bay for C. carcharias. Social network analysis showed that species segregated in space and time on a fine scale. However, there was some interaction observed between C. taurus, L. amia, and A. japonicus, but to varying degrees. This is likely because of strong habitat preferences exhibited by each species and predator-prey relationships between these predatory guilds. Results highlight that the sheltered marine Algoa Bay is a resource-rich environment, supporting multiple predators with different hunting strategies albeit similar prey preferences. Finally, these species are likely afforded some protection by the current Greater Addo Elephant National Park Marine Protected Area in the bay but are vulnerable to fishing pressure when they leave this ecosystem.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1093/ee/nvae008
A new distribution and host record for the rare moth, Callioratis millari (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), and some ecological observations.
  • Feb 10, 2024
  • Environmental Entomology
  • Paul Duvel Janse Van Rensburg + 3 more

Callioratis millari Hampson (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is a Critically Endangered moth endemic to South Africa. Despite extensive searches, it was previously known only from the Entumeni Nature Reserve in KwaZulu-Natal, where its larvae exclusively feed on the cycad Stangeria eriopus (Kunze) Baill (Cycadales: Stangeriaceae). In July 2022, a new population of C. millari was discovered in the Kabouga section of Addo Elephant National Park in the Eastern Cape. Larvae of C. millari were feeding on the cycad Encephalartos caffer (Thunb.) Lehm (Cycadales: Zamiaceae), which also constitutes a new host record. In June 2023, we determined larval incidence and herbivory at this new locality, offering insights into the ecological requirements of C. millari. Known C. millari localities, although ecologically different, share low altitudes (700-950 m a.s.l.), moderate to high rainfall, and grassy habitats with sparse woody cover. A total of 59 larvae were counted in Kabouga, mostly in the fifth and sixth (final) instars. Herbivory incidence was lower on smaller plants and those covered by other vegetation. The flight period of adult C. millari likely occurs between mid-March and April in Kabouga, but further investigation is needed to clarify this. The peak period of larval occurrence in Kabouga occurs during the driest and coldest months of the year (May-July). Considering limited habitat availability, host plant poaching, and the risk of untimely fires, the species should be considered highly threatened. This study adds to our understanding of the biology of C. millari and provides information on its ecological requirements and may contribute to making informed management decisions.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 22
  • 10.1007/s11069-023-06384-1
Trends and impacts of temperature and fire regimes in South Africa’s coastal national parks: implications for tourism
  • Jan 16, 2024
  • Natural Hazards
  • Lazarus Chapungu + 3 more

Climate change poses significant risks on coastal national park-based tourism through its effect on accessibility, comfort levels, and spatiotemporal changes of attractions. Wildfires and extreme temperatures have become issues of concern. Due to the widespread occurrence of fires in national parks along coastal areas and the noticeable changes in temperature regimes, more needs to be done to deepen understanding of their trends and impacts and devise appropriate management regimes. This study analyses the trends and impacts of fires and temperature-related variables in six coastal South African national parks, namely Agulhas, Garden Route, West Coast, Table Mountain, Namaqua, and Addo Elephant National Park. The triangulation and convergence model of the mixed-methods research design was adopted as the inquiry strategy. Data on statistical weather variables from the South African Weather Services and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration were used to calculate temperature trends using Mann–Kendall trend tests and homogeneity analysis. Data collection included questionnaire surveys, key informant interviews, field observations, and document analysis. The study observed statistically significant (p < 0.05) changes in temperature-related variables in all coastal national parks. There is also an increase in the intensity and spatial spread of fires, resulting in increased fire damage over time. Despite the current efforts of the coastal parks to manage wildfires and the changing climatic patterns, the fire and temperature regimes are threatening the biophysical environment with resultant effects on tourism and the economic viability of the national parks. The need to reengineer the fire suppression mechanisms and temperature-resilient tourism facilities has been observed.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.58683/sp.597
Linking state-owned nature-based tourism assets for local small enterprise development: Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa
  • Oct 11, 2023
  • Studia Periegetica
  • Julia K Giddy + 1 more

Tourism is often discussed as a pathway to local economic development especially in the Global South. Although much discussion surrounds upliftment via job creation and the direct income generated from tourism enterprises, there is increasing focus on the benefits of tourism supply chains for local communities. Existing research demonstrates the potential role of tourism supply chains to uplift local businesses, particularly small medium and micro-enterprises (SMMEs). Nevertheless, there are many barriers which face local SMMEs in accessing tourism supply chains particularly in the Global South. This paper seeks to investigate the relationship between a major state-owned tourism asset in South Africa, Addo Elephant National Park, and SMME development. Using qualitative interviews with stakeholders within the Addo Elephant National Park, local tourism businesses as well as local SMMEs, the challenges faced by these enterprises in entering the tourism supply chain are highlighted as well as the tenuous linkages between local SMMEs and state-owned tourism assets.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.1007/s11852-023-00974-8
Local purse-seine fishers’ economic losses owing to endangered seabird conservation measures – perceptions and reality
  • Aug 29, 2023
  • Journal of Coastal Conservation
  • T Gifford + 4 more

The likelihood of success of a marine protected area (MPA) is strongly dependent on stakeholders’ support. A concern often raised by local fishers is their lack of involvement in the design or management of a MPA and their loss of income owing to lost fishing grounds. We used Algoa Bay, South Africa, as a case study to analyse fisher’s and fish-processing factory managers’ concerns and perceived economic losses from fishing closures using structured interviews. Since 2009, a 20 km-radius purse-seine fishing-exclusion zone has been tested in Algoa Bay to assess the benefit to population recovery of the endangered African penguin Spheniscus demersus. Costs to the industry were estimated in terms of loss of catches and additional travel time to fishing grounds with and without closures. Fisher responses to interviews revealed general support for conservation and MPAs, but individuals interviewed did not feel that the 20 km fishing exclusion zones in Algoa Bay would aid African penguin conservation. While they systematically raised concerns about potential economic costs to their industry from closures, neither their catch sizes nor travel times varied significantly with fishing exclusion measures. Acknowledgement and assessment of the economic concerns may aid in initiating an informed dialogue amongst the various stakeholders in Algoa Bay, which may increase compliance and success of the newly proclaimed Addo elephant National Park MPA. Continued dialogue may also act as a catalyst for more integrated ocean management of biodiversity and human uses in the bay.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 3
  • 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.102197
Biodiversity-based evaluation of thicket thresholds at different levels of elephant impact – Towards assessment and monitoring of thicket vegetation
  • Jul 4, 2023
  • Ecological Informatics
  • Shandon Luke Carvalho + 1 more

Biodiversity-based evaluation of thicket thresholds at different levels of elephant impact – Towards assessment and monitoring of thicket vegetation

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.1111/1440-1703.12397
Space use of ungulate prey relative to lions is affected by prey species and predator behavior but not wind direction
  • May 10, 2023
  • Ecological Research
  • Matt W Hayward + 2 more

Abstract Predators can induce behavioral changes in prey that influence vigilance, grouping patterns, and space use, and these can ultimately affect prey demography and trophic interactions. Consequently, prey must respond to the risk of predation, but little is known about the features that drive the spatial responses of prey species to predators. We tested what factors affected the proximity of prey to the lions reintroduced to Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also tested whether prey species that are preferentially killed by lions revealed greater responsiveness than those that are not, and whether prey respond to predator behavioral states and hunger. From 1588 observations of potential prey locations in relation to lions under varying wind directions, lion behaviors, and hunger states throughout the day and night, we found no evidence of wind‐driven odor responses affecting prey proximity to lions. Prey species that were not preferentially preyed upon by lions occurred closer to lions than those species that lions prefer to hunt. Prey were closer to lions performing noisy behaviors compared to those performing quiet behaviors. Prey were more likely to be closer to covertly behaving lions and further from stationary lions. Our results, compared to the published literature and accepted dogma of the primacy of odor in predator detection, suggest large vertebrate prey responses to predators in intact, multi‐species assemblages are context dependent.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 6
  • 10.1111/aje.13141
Using piospheres to identify, assess and monitor gradients of elephant impact on thicket
  • Mar 14, 2023
  • African Journal of Ecology
  • Shandon Luke Carvalho + 1 more

Abstract Overpopulation in conservation areas with large populations of elephants reduces the diversity of the thicket vegetation of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Monitoring species' specific impacts is a difficult task for reserves. This study investigates whether the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used to evaluate the health of thicket in the Addo Elephant National Park successfully. To achieve this, different browsing intensities of elephants were used to establish a gradient of the full range of utilisation levels on thicket. These were obtained at different distances from the nearest available water sources for Mesic and Valley Thicket types. NDVI values were correlated to an elephant utilisation gradient, which was, in turn, directly related to distance from a water source. The lowest NDVI values (&lt;0.2) were observed adjacent to watering holes where vegetation was completely degraded due to trampling by the daily congregation of animals. The highest NDVI values (&gt;0.5 representing the densest stands of thicket vegetation) were obtained at distances exceeding 7 km from a water source where elephant densities were the lowest within the park. NDVI values could, therefore, be used to identify and monitor gradients of elephant impact on the integrity of thicket.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 5
  • 10.1111/csp2.12741
Demographic responses of an insular elephant population to removal as a management intervention
  • Jun 24, 2022
  • Conservation Science and Practice
  • Robert A R Guldemond + 4 more

Abstract Disturbances that change population structure may evoke transient dynamics that can be assessed within a demographic resilience framework. Conservation management interventions are conceptually disturbances that can be evaluated through such a framework to inform management actions and goals. The Main Camp in Addo Elephant National Park in South Africa presents a case study. Here management reduced the size of the elephant ( Loxodonta africana ) population by ~26%. We compared population growth, modelled trends, constructed life tables and parameterized population projection matrices from data collected before, during and after the interventions. The interventions reduced population size and density, but co‐occurring droughts may have reduced subsequent population growth and stage‐specific survival. Transient dynamics followed the interventions and droughts and were associated with an unstable stage structure. The effect of adult survival on modelled asymptotic growth (its elasticity) was greater than a change in fertility. However, lowered juvenile survival contributed most to changes in transient growth. Management plans for elephant populations should consider the length of transients induced by interventions and environmental disturbances such as droughts. Our approach can benefit the assessment of population responses of elephants to disturbances such as poaching and persistent droughts elsewhere in Africa.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.2989/1814232x.2022.2080268
Supporting marine spatial planning with an ecosystem model of Algoa Bay, South Africa
  • Apr 3, 2022
  • African Journal of Marine Science
  • K Ortega-Cisneros + 5 more

The Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modelling framework was used to develop a model of Algoa Bay and test the ecosystem impacts of the implementation of the Addo Elephant National Park Marine Protected Area (MPA). The Ecopath model included 37 functional groups ranging from phytoplankton to top predators and was fitted to 12 and 14 time-series of biomass and landings, respectively, from 2010 to 2019 (calibration period), using Ecosim. Two scenarios representing different degrees of fisheries closures in the MPA were explored through a 30% and a 100% reduction in fishing effort. Temporal simulations were run until 2059. The fitting procedure identified the best-fit model as the one including the effects of fishing, the six most-sensitive predator–prey interactions, and environmental forcing (primary production anomaly on small phytoplankton). Overall, the predicted biomass and catch time-series reasonably reproduced the observed time-series for 2010–2019, with the biomass of sardine Sardinops sagax, round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi, and African penguins Spheniscus demersus showing the best fits to data. Both MPA scenarios resulted in higher total biomass compared with the baseline by the end of the simulation and decreased catches due to less fishing effort. The most profound biomass increases under the MPA scenarios were observed in apex and pelagic elasmobranchs, yellowtail Seriola lalandi and African penguins. Future research is needed to improve the more-uncertain model parameters and include other key sectors in Algoa Bay, such as shipping. However, this model provides a good foundation for future work including the application of spatially explicit modelling of the bay using Ecospace.

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