DOI 10.1515/cjpp-2012-0001 Calif. J. Politics Policy 2012; 4(2): 1–24 Research Article Michal Kurlaender*, Jacob Jackson Investigating Middle School Determinants of High School Achievement and Graduation in Three California School Districts Abstract: This paper explores early predictors of high school graduation and success. Employing 7th grade cohorts from three large California school districts (San Francisco, Fresno, and Long Beach), we investigate the role of several key middle school academic performance measures in identifying students’ 11th grade academic performance, passing the California High School Exit Examina- tion on the first attempt, and diploma receipt. We find that standardized assess- ments, timing of algebra, and course failures in middle school provide useful indicators of students’ high school academic success. Our aim is not to identify any causal mechanism by which middle school achievement leads to high school success or failure, but rather to describe important associations that may aid poli- cymakers and school leaders to develop strategies early in students’ educational pursuit of the high school diploma. Keywords: education; graduation; high school exit exams *Corresponding author: Michal Kurlaender, School of Education, University of California, Davis, One Shields Ave., 95616 Davis, CA, USA, e-mail: mkurlaender@ucdavis.edu Jacob Jackson, School of Education, University of California, Davis, One Shields Ave., 95616 Davis, CA, USA 1 Introduction The economic costs of high school dropouts are substantial to individuals and society (Heckman and LaFontaine 2007; Rumberger 2011). High school drop- outs are less likely to hold down regular jobs, earn about $260,000 less over a lifetime than high school graduates and pay about $60,000 less in taxes (Rouse 2005). Moreover, high school dropouts are more likely to face health problems (Muennig 2005), to be involved in criminal activity (Moretti 2005), and to require public assistance (Waldfogel et al. 2005). Belfield and Levin (2007a) estimate the economic losses in California from a cohort of dropouts over their lifetimes