It is perceived that the fatigue performance of high-strength steel is preponderantly affected by internal defects. Inclusions may be efficaciously controlled and primary carbides have been proved to be the principal type of defects in M50 bearing steels. Primary carbides in service-status M50 were systematically characterized and the rolling contact fatigue (RCF) properties were evaluated under different friction conditions in this work. An innovative method of shakedown analysis was proposed for the first time, extending the shakedown analysis of materials as an integral based on traditional shakedown theory to that of weaker internal defects. By the response of primary carbides, the RCF process was separated into a plastic instability period and an elastic shakedown period. The accumulation of plastic deformation around carbides before shakedown was proposed as the RCF damage parameter, and the influence of primary carbides was studied based on the damage criterion. The competition between surface and internal fatigue initiation was revealed via different friction coefficients. A predictive model for RCF initiation was established, which could predict the critical sizes for disparate types of primary carbides not deleterious to RCF performance, and the critical sizes under typical industrial service condition were reckoned.
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