Future Accidents Research Articles

Analytical Hierarchy Process Method Based Analysis on Road Safety Inspection at Metu - Yayo Road Segment

Now days road safety becomes a worldwide concern. Similarly Road safety risk has been a major issue in the study area (Metu- Yayo road segment). The successful assessments of road safety inspection within the study area are very essential to minimize future road accidents faced by the entire road user. The study were started by examining the current condition of the road using road safety inspection manual then it used focus group judgments and it is analyzed by analytical hierarchical process method based pairwise comparison in identification of contributing factors for the road safety risk using two levels of Analytical Hierarchical process, and four major factors i.e. pavement surface condition, road geometry condition, road side environment condition, road traffic control condition, and also it tries to prioritize the road section to identify the road with better facilities and the road in the worst condition. During road safety inspection in the study area the road experience early stages of pavement distresses, road traffic sign related problems, sight distance obstruction, and soil slide related problems this in turn speeds up the road safety risk and increases the occurrence of road traffic accidents. As a result, this study concluded, road traffic control factors were the most significant factors which contributes to the occurrences of road safety risk. In comparison, Lakosaya to Yayo road section is the found in a better condition, but the road section from Mechi to Lakosaya is found in worse condition in the study area.

Normalized difference vegetation index analysis of the first part impacted with the breaking of the Fundão Dam in Mariana-MG

This paper addresses the exploitation of mineral resources and suggests that an environmental management that meets a set of measures and mutual cooperation between public and private managers, civil society, and mining companies that exploit natural, renewable, and non-renewable resources is needed. Cooperation between managers and joint safety measures can prevent present and future accidents like the one that occurred in Mariana City in Minas Gerais State (MG). The questioning presented puts into discussion the disaster that occurred in Mariana City due to the rupture of the ore tailings dam (Fundão dam) in November 2015. With an estimated population of 60,000 inhabitants, Mariana City has a local economy directly linked to mining activities. Due to the impact caused by the rupture of the Fundão dam, both city and vegetation were destroyed, among other factors observed along the path followed by the tailings. However, what is discussed in this article with greater emphasis is the loss of vegetation in the watershed. The methodology compared the degree of vegetation coverage in the basin area through the analysis of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index – NDVI for 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 in different months. Some images refer to August and other samples are from September, complementing the process through the use of Landsat 8 satellite images - OLI sensor, acquired from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) repository. 299 points were distributed in the quadrant to perform the analyses (n = 299). The level of significance was set at 5% with a 95% confidence, to ascertain and verify whether the data distribution is in an acceptable condition (dense or semi-dense vegetation cover). Regarding vegetation analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests were used. Both tests indicated a non-normal distribution for the NDVI data set, which indicates the absence of a vegetation index that was covered by the tailings, resulting in an area with large spaces without the coverage previously registered in 2013. We conclude that the vegetation suffered a drastic alteration provoked by the rupture of the Fundão dam which also led to homeless residents, negative impacts on the livelihood of the small farmers and fishermen, silting up of rivers and streams, death of several animal and plant species, and also affected the ecosystem and the local and regional biodiversity.

Estimation of the Severity of Occupational Accidents in the Building Process with Pre-Informed Artificial Learning Method

Bu çalışmada, yapı üretim sürecinde meydana gelen iş kazalarında, kaza şiddeti ile kaza önlemleri arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Bunun için geçmiş kaza verileri kullanılarak, ilerideki iş kazalarında hangi önlemlerin alınması gerektiği ve bu önlemlerin alınmaması halinde kaza sonucunun ne olabileceğini tahmin edebilen bütünleşmiş bir model geliştirilmiştir. Bu tahmin modeli, günümüzde araştırmacıların sıklıkla kullandığı AHP (Analitik Hiyerarşi Prosesi) ve YSA (Yapay Sinir Ağları) metotlarının zayıf kaldıkları noktada birbirlerini tamamlaması amacıyla, birbirine entegre edilerek oluşturulmuştur. Modelin anlamlılığı bir saha çalışması yapılarak gerçek veriler ile test edilmiştir. Örneklem için en çok ölümle sonuçlanan 4 (dört) tür iş kazası seçilmiş ve bu iş kazaları için, aynı kurumda, 35 (otuz beş) geçmiş kaza verileri toplanmıştır. YSA metodu giriş katmanını önceden anlamlandıran AHP metodu için ikili kıyaslama verileri, profesyonel bir anket firması tarafından sektörde görev yapan İSG (İş sağlığı ve güvenliği) uzmanlarından, anket yöntemi ile elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen bu verilerden 120 adedi ağların eğitilmesinde, 20 adedi de test edilmesinde kullanılmıştır. Sonuçta risk azaltıcı önlemler ile kaza şiddeti arasında ilişkinin, toplanan kaza verileriyle sınırlı olmak kaydıyla, %90 oranında anlamlı olduğu görülmüştür.

Imaging vehicle-to-vehicle communication using visible light

Abstract With advances in automated and connected driving, secure communication is increasingly becoming a safety-critical function. Injection of manipulated radio messages into traffic can cause severe accidents in the foreseeable future, and can currently be achieved without having to manipulate on-board vehicle systems directly, for example by hijacking cellphones instead and using these as senders. Thereby, large-scale attacks on vehicles can be executed remotely, and target relatively vulnerable devices. To mitigate remaining vulnerabilities in current automotive security architectures, this paper proposes a secondary communication channel using vehicle head and taillights. In contrast to existing approaches, this method allows both to achieve a sufficient data rate and to extract the angular position of the sender, by means of an imaging process which only requires close-to-market, cost-efficient technology. Through this, injecting false messages by masquerading as a different sender is considerably more challenging: The receiver can verify a message’s source position with the supposed position of the sender, e.g. by using on-board sensors or communicated information. Thereby, reliably faking both the communicated messages and the position of the sender will require direct manipulation of on-board vehicle systems, raising the security level of the function accordingly, and precluding low-threshold, wide-range attacks.

The SHAMISEN Project: Challenging historical recommendations for preparedness, response and surveillance of health and well-being in case of nuclear accidents: Lessons learnt from Chernobyl and Fukushima

Experience suggests that current nuclear accident response planning in European countries mostly has a technical focus, with less attention paid to social, psychological and ethical issues. Information provided tends to be directed towards decisions made by experts, rather than for the support of affected populations. The SHAMISEN (Nuclear Emergency Situations - Improvement of Medical And Health Surveillance) consortium, composed of close to 50 experts from 10 countries, performed a critical review of current recommendations and experiences regarding dose assessment and reconstruction, evacuation decisions, long-term health surveillance programmes and epidemiological studies. The review included case studies and lessons drawn from the living conditions and health status of populations affected by the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents, taking an integrative approach to health and well-being. Based on this work, SHAMISEN developed a series of comprehensive recommendations aimed at improving the preparedness, response, long-term surveillance and living conditions of populations affected by past or future radiation accidents, in a manner responding to their needs, while minimising unnecessary anxiety.

Anti‐Learning Behavior Toward Safety Risk: The Roles of Internal Context and Social Contagion

ABSTRACTManaging safety has become increasingly important in global operations. Surprisingly, the literature provides limited clues on what influences future accident hazards after the happening of a recent minor operational incident (MOI) in an organization. We examine the impacts of internal context (direct MOI experience) and external context (indirect MOI experience) on a focal organization's future serious accident hazard. Using an archival incident dataset from the liner shipping industry and drawing upon normalized deviation and social contagion theory, we find that after a recent MOI in a focal organization, the direct (internal context) and indirect (contagion source) MOI experience “increase” the likelihood of accident hazard. Furthermore, within the indirect MOI experience, there is “no” differential impact between related (same type and same region) and unrelated experience, whereas within related experience, spatial (region) and social (type) proximity do not differ in influencing the chance of future serious accident hazard happening. Our findings provide important implications for theory, practice, and policy‐making in safety management.

Lessons learned from Chernobyl and Fukushima on thyroid cancer screening and recommendations in case of a future nuclear accident

Exposure of the thyroid gland to ionizing radiation at a young age is the main recognized risk factor for differentiated thyroid cancer. After the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents, thyroid cancer screening was implemented mainly for children, leading to case over-diagnosis as seen in South Korea after the implementation of opportunistic screening (where subjects are recruited at healthcare sites). The aim of cancer screening is to reduce morbidity and mortality, but screening can also cause negative effects on health (with unnecessary treatment if over-diagnosis) and on quality of life.This paper from the SHAMISEN special issue (Nuclear Emergency Situations - Improvement of Medical And Health Surveillance) presents the principles of cancer screening, the lessons learned from thyroid cancer screening, as well as the knowledge on thyroid cancer incidence after exposure to iodine-131.The SHAMISEN Consortium recommends to envisage systematic health screening after a nuclear accident, only when appropriately justified, i.e. ensuring that screening will do more good than harm. Based on the experience of the Fukushima screening, the consortium does not recommend mass or population-based thyroid cancer screening, as the negative psychological and physical effects are likely to outweigh any possible benefit in affected populations; thyroid health monitoring should however be made available to persons who request it (regardless of whether they are at increased risk or not), accompanied with appropriate information and support.

An Investigation of an Oil Barge Explosion in Corpus Christi, TX

On October 20, 2017, an articulated tug and barge carrying crude oil were preparing to get under way from anchorage when an explosion and subsequent fire occurred on the bow of the barge, killing the two crew. The National Transportation Safety Board and US Coast Guard conducted an official federal investigation. The explosion was found to have originated from an accumulation of gasses into empty compartment space that had leaked through a bulkhead from the adjacent crude oil cargo tank. The investigation found through-cracks and perforations stemming from corrosion in the bulkhead separating the compartments. This article highlights the findings and conclusions of the accident investigation while providing recommendations to prevent future accidents and to improve the safety of vessels shipping hazardous material.

دلائل النبوة الغيبية المستقبلية في السنة النبوية، (دراسة تأصيلية)

يهدف هذا البحث إلى تأصيل دلائل النبوة الغيبية المستقبلية، وقد تبين أن المقصود بها کل ما أيد الله به نبيه محمد r من آيات وأمارات تخبر عن کل ما غاب عن البشر من أمور مستقبلية دالة على صدق نبوته وکمال رسالته, وهنالک عدة أنواع للدلائل الغيبية المستقبلية في السنة النبوية تتنوع بحسب اعتبارات متعددة، ويجب أثناء التعامل معها مراعاة مجموعة من الضوابط منها: الاقتصار في مصدر التلقي على الوحي کتابا وسنة, وصحة الرواية, ومراعاة صحة التعامل مع دلالات النصوص, وجمع طرق الحديث وشرح الحديث بالحديث, وتقديم آراء أهل النظر والإختصاص على رأي العامة في الحکم والإستدلال. ومما يجب اعتقاده أن الحوادث المستقبلة لا يعلم ميعادها وحقيقتها وصورتها وحجمها وکل ما يتعلق بها إلا رب العالمين. ومن زعم أن أحدا من الخلق يعلم ما يستقبل من الأمور فقد کذب على الله وکذب على رسول الله r، فعلى المسلم أن لا يخوض في أحاديث الدلائل الغيبية ويرجع ذلک لکتاب الله وسنته. Abstract: This research aims to establish the evidences for a future metaphysical prophecy. It has been shown that what is meant by God is all that God supported His Prophet Muhammad of verses and signs that inform about all future matters that are absent from mankind indicating the sincerity of his prophethood and the perfection of his message. The Prophet’s Sunnah varies according to multiple considerations, and a set of controls must be taken into consideration during dealing with it, including: limiting the source of revelation to a book and a Sunnah, the validity of the narration, taking into account the correctness of dealing with the semantics of the texts, collecting the methods of hadith and explaining the hadith with the hadith, and presenting the opinions of the opinionated and the expert on the opinion General judgment and inference. It must be believed that future accidents do not know their timing, reality, image, size, and everything related to them except the Lord of the Worlds. And whoever claims that someone from the creation knows what he will receive from matters has lied to God and lied to the Messenger of God, so the Muslim should not engage in hadiths of unseen evidence, and this is due to the Book and Sunnah of God. Key words: evidence, unseen, future, Sunnah.

Development of radiation education in schools after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident ― a study from the perspectives of regionality, multidisciplinarity and continuity

This study was designed to examine how teachers in Fukushima Prefecture have shaped radiation education and gained consensus on radiation-related issues since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. We interviewed teachers and external experts who have been conducting radiation education since the nuclear accident, ascertaining their focus in introducing and implementing radiation education and the lessons they have learned. We then qualitatively analyzed the results. There was no practical radiation course of study (Shido Yoryo) to follow immediately after the disaster, so teachers individually devised curricula according to the developmental stages of their students. Their aims were to (1) tailor lesson structure to the students’ anxieties and distress, (2) promote students’ activities through knowledge and linkage to their daily lives via radiation measurements and disaster site visits, and (3) enable the students to self-educate and to take informed decision. These objectives required the implementation of continuous, multidisciplinary radiation education to enable the students to understand the impacts of the nuclear accident and enhance the resilience of children growing up in Fukushima, allowing them to overpass the rumor and stigma and to adopt adequate protective measures to face the remaining radiation in their environment. As nearly 10 years has passed since the accident, radiation education at schools has reached a turning point. While social interest in radiation education is waning, it is hard to say that adequate radiation knowledge has taken root among students, and therefore it is necessary to consider how radiation education should be delivered in the future. Such curricula based on the experiences of Fukushima Prefecture should be shared internationally in preparation for potential future accidents.

Accident Hazard After a Minor Operational Incident: Internal Context and Social Contagion Source

Managing safety has become increasingly important in global operations. Surprisingly, the literature provides limited clues regarding what influences future accident hazard following a recent minor operational incident (MOI) happened within an organization. This study examines the role of internal context (direct MOI experience) and external context (indirect MOI experience) on a focal organization’s future serious accident hazard. Using an archival incident dataset from the global liner shipping industry and drawing upon social contagion theory, we find that following a recent MOI within a focal organization, direct (internal context) and indirect MOI experience (contagion source) can increase future serious accident hazard by 29 and 14 percent, respectively. Furthermore, within the indirect MOI experience, there is no differential impact between related (same type and same region) and unrelated experience; within the related experience, spatial (region) and social (type) proximity do not differ in influencing the chance for future serious accident hazard to happen. This study provides critical implications for theory, practice, and policymaking in safety management.

Do therapists with fewer years of clinical experience encounter more accidents? The relationship between number of years of clinical experience and number of accidents in a year.

This study sought to determine whether therapists experience more accidents annually with increased clinical experience, and whether experiencing an accident in the first year of practice is associated with accidents in the second year of practice. We categorized 642 therapists into five groups based on years of clinical experience (first, second, third, fourth, and 5-20 years; n=138, 112, 117, 58, and 217, respectively) and tallied the accidents they reported over an 8-year period. The difference between the five groups in the number of accidents per person per year was subjected to multiple comparisons testing using Kruskal-Wallis tests. Significant differences were revealed between the first year group and the 5-20 years group (p<0.01), between the second year group and the 5-20 years group (p<0.05), and between the third year group and the 5-20 years group (p<0.05). Specifically, participants in the 5-20 years group encountered fewer accidents than those in the other groups. Therapists who encountered an accident in their first year, compared with those who had not, had significantly more accidents in their second year. Therapists with 1-3 years of clinical experience are more likely to encounter an accident than therapists with >5 years of clinical experience. We conclude that young therapists who have experienced accidents are prone to future accidents. These findings inform the optimal allocation of educational resources to reduce the number of accidents encountered by therapists.

Accident Severity in India

Among all the transportation services available, road transport is one of the most important services available. It acts as a feeder for the other services. According to the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, the road transport amounts to the traffic of about 87% related to the passenger and 60% related to the freight. Now, there is another field, where road transport is among the top list and that field is of road accidents. In 2016, about 150785 people died in road accidents. And as the population is increasing, there is also an increase in the rate of road accidents. So, it is vital to analyze the data of road accidents for future predictions and thereby developing proper measures for this increasing rate. Many factorsresult in accidents and many cases might not have been recorded. So, the available data may not be consistent, but the data is gathered mainly from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and then the information was extracted from that data. This information is used for the statistical analysis for the prediction of a future road accident or accident severity.

Investigating the status of accident precursor management in East Azarbaijan Province Gas Company

Purpose. The accident precursor reporting system is a key point in preventing accidents and proper functioning of this system is critical. In the present study, the accident precursor reporting system in the Iranian East Azarbaijan Province Gas Company was investigated. Methods. This quantitative–qualitative study used field survey and document review methods to determine how the company was reporting. Qualitative content analysis approaches were used to analyze the reporting system over a 3-year period. From 1209 accident precursor reports, 2271 codes were extracted. Finally, these codes were reduced to three clusters: 996 (43.86%), 447 (19.68%) and 828 (36.46%) codes related to near misses, unsafe conditions and unsafe acts, respectively. A χ 2 test was used to investigate the reporting process. Results. Reporting rates varied by time (e.g., people reported more accident precursors in the first 6 solar months), by area (some areas had higher reporting rates than others) and by type of job (operational jobs had the highest reporting rate [73.16%] compared to non-operational jobs [26.84%]). Conclusion. It was suggested that policy-makers should improve the accident precursor reporting system. Changes to the current reporting system are essential to help in the prevention of future unpleasant accidents.

Prospective association between burnout and road traffic accidents in teachers.

We investigated whether burnout (emotional exhaustion, depersonalization and reduced professional efficacy) is a risk factor for traffic accidents. A prospective cohort study was conducted with 509 school teachers. The teachers were interviewed in 2012-2013, and the Maslach Burnout Inventory was applied. After 2 years, the teachers were interviewed again to determine the occurrence of traffic accidents. Poisson regression models with robust variance were used to adjust the analyses. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated to assess changes in c-units in the scores of each Burnout dimension, with c equal to 1, 5 and 10 units. The incidence rate of road traffic accidents at follow-up was 10.8%. After adjustments for sex, age, high workload/exposure to the traffic environment, daily consumption of alcoholic beverages and the other dimensions of burnout, depersonalization was a risk factor for traffic accidents. For each 1- and 10-point increase in the depersonalization score, the risk increased by 8 and 119%, respectively. Emotional exhaustion was not associated with these accidents. Increases in the professional efficacy score increased the risk of traffic accidents. The association of depersonalization with future road traffic accidents reinforces the need for measures to improve teachers' work conditions to reduce burnout.

Detection and Localization of Partial Discharge in Transformer Oil and Winding using UHF Method

Transformers are important part in power transmission. One of the serious faults that is seen in transformers is electrical insulation failure. Insulation failure is usually initiated by partial discharges (PD). Due to high voltage stress, the fluid insulation in electrical system or a small solid portion can get dielectric breakdown, this is known as partial discharge and this does not create a space between the conductors. The accurate location of PD is an effective method for assessing the existing electrical insulation condition and preventing future accidents. PD is detected by many methods, but for onsite detection of PD, one of the efficient methods is sensing the electromagnetic waves radiated by the discharge source with a frequency range that can go up to 3GHz. In this technique Ultra High Frequency (UHF) sensors are mounted on the transformer tank to measure these waves. This provides a suitable solution for on-site detection of insulation failure in power transformers.

Identifying safety archetypes of construction workers using system dynamics and content analysis

Construction accidents have unique features on the surface, while further investigation often reveals common underlying systemic patterns that lead to accidents. By identifying these patterns, organizations can better understand past accidents, monitor risk, and reduce the likelihood of future accidents. Further, construction project management is such a complex effort due to the unique, dynamic, and temporary nature of the construction industry. Furthermore, there is lack of research on exploring the systematic patterns responsible for occurrence of accidents. To address this gap in knowledge, this paper aims to better understand the dynamic complexity of construction safety by identifying behavioral patterns of workers that recur in construction projects continuously. Content analysis and ground theory method (GTM) were adopted for this research. In total, 100 papers were reviewed to explore the influential factors affecting the safety in construction projects. Furthermore, 20 interviews were conducted with experts in the field of construction health and safety. The results showed that there are four archetypes of construction workers: (1) blame on workers, (2) construction delay, (3) incentive programs, and (4) subcontractors’ financial status. The identified archetypes have been illustrated at different steps including the dynamic theory, behavior over time, and the leverage point to show how to manage the archetype. The developed archetypes could be useful for decision-makers and help them be aware of the long-term effects of their decisions in the projects. They also provide systemic vision for project managers helping them understand the dynamic complexity of construction safety management.

Radiation exposure and health effects of the residents around the former Soviet Union nuclear test site in Kazakhstan -A new perspective: radioactive microparticles

Harnessing atomic particles and radiation led to powerful and world changing technologies. The field of medical imaging has saved countless lives and continues to push the boundaries of medical interventions and research, which would have been impossible without the first x-ray machines. Unfortunately, not all inventions have been so altruistic. The advent of nuclear weapons showed the world the destructive potential possible via scientific inquiry. While the dangerous effects of radiation exposure were documented from the inception of this technology, catastrophic events like the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and nuclear disasters at Chernobyl Semipalatinsk or Fukushima provide a real-time glimpse into the long-term effects of exposure. Investigating the causes of this exposure in order to prevent future accidents is essential, but so too is cataloguing the rates and types of exposure among the victims. With this information correlations between exposure and health effects, both short- and long-term can be interrogated. This data is crucial for the understanding of the mechanisms behind radiations effects on living creatures and in assessing risks, safety protocols and treatment. Dr Masaharu Hoshi, Professor Emeritus at the Hiroshima University, has spent most of his career travelling around the world, visiting the sites of nuclear disasters in an effort to fully comprehend the risks. He is now using case studies to investigate the radiation exposure and health effects of the residents of radioactive microparticles.

Knowledge acquisition from chemical accident databases using an ontology-based method and natural language processing

Accident databases are used to learn from past accidents and avoid future accidents in the chemical process industry. Classical accident databases can be tedious to use because the database entries were written over the years by various persons in different styles. Thus, accident case entries must be interpreted to identify cause-effect relationships and recognize lessons learned. Semantically enriched accident databases can make information retrieval more efficient. In this research approach Natural Language Processing methods are used to extract information from a chemical accident database. Additionally, substance information is enriched using web scraping techniques. Afterwards, a predefined ontology structure is automatically populated with the extracted information. The ontology-based chemical accident database provides additional accident exploration capabilities that can be used by human experts or computer systems. The results indicate that the proposed extraction method is well suited to extract accident information. The ontology is useful to discover causal accident relations due to the semantically described context of accident information. The method described can be adapted to other databases with minor adaptations and refinements. By combining various ontology-based accident databases a human and machine-processable, and sharable knowledge structure can be provided to reuse knowledge across companies and countries.

Lessons from the MH17 transboundary disaster investigation

AbstractTransboundary crises, incidents and disasters, such as chemical spills, airplane crashes and critical infrastructure breakdowns, involving multiple levels and domains of governance pose a particular set of challenges. These challenges also pertain to the investigation and learning phase of a crisis. We study a typical transboundary case: the crash of a Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17), with 298 people on board from a variety of nationalities but the majority from the Netherlands, that crashed in Ukraine in a conflict zone near the Russian border. The MH17 case contains valuable lessons on transboundary disaster investigations. The Dutch Safety Board (DSB) took the lead of the international independent investigation into the causes of the crash. With an international group of stakeholders, the DSB investigated a crash that resulted from a bilateral conflict, requiring the support from Ukraine's powerful neighbour Russia that meanwhile stood accused of withholding evidence and supporting Ukrainian separatists. Retrieving evidence and researching the causality of the crash was no easy task. If countries wish to follow their ambition to learn from accidents in order to “prevent the past repeated,” they may more often need to investigate such transboundary cases. This case study probes into how challenges that are typical to transboundary crises affected the accident investigation into the MH17 disaster. We search for lessons on transboundary accident investigation that transcend the boundaries of this single case. Such lessons may prove invaluable for learning from future accidents.