5-year Cumulative Incidence Of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research Articles

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver-related Events in Anti-hepatitis D Virus-positive Individuals

Chronic hepatitis D (CHD) is the most severe form of chronic viral hepatitis, with a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality. Risk stratification is needed to guide HCC surveillance strategies and to prioritize treatment with antiviral agents. We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort of anti-hepatitis D virus (HDV)-positive individuals managed at sites in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. We studied the 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC and liver-related events (first of HCC, liver transplantation, and liver-related mortality), in the overall cohort and among relevant subgroups. We analyzed 269 anti-HDV-positive individuals with a median follow-up of 4.3 years in which 47 first events occurred. The 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC and liver-related events were 3.8% and 15.6% in the overall cohort. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC and liver-related events for individuals without cirrhosis was 0% and 0.9% compared with 12% and 41.3% for individuals with cirrhosis (P < .001). The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC and liver-related events was 0% and 2.1% among individuals with low PAGE-B scores, compared to 3.2% and 21.1% with intermediate and 25.4% and 45.5% with high-risk scores (P < .001). We found comparable results for the Fibrosis-4 score. Findings were consistent regardless of cirrhosis or detectable HDV RNA (P < .001). Anti-HDV-positive individuals are at high risk of adverse liver-related outcomes. The incidence of HCC was negligible among individuals without cirrhosis and among individuals with low baseline PAGE-B and/or Fibrosis-4 scores. Therefore, these scores can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies and potentially also for treatment prioritization.

Metformin and statins reduce hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis C patients with failed antiviral therapy.

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who failed antiviral therapy are at increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study assessed the potential role of metformin and statins, medications for diabetes mellitus (DM) and hyperlipidemia (HLP), in reducing HCC risk among these patients. We included CHC patients from the T-COACH study who failed antiviral therapy. We tracked the onset of HCC 1.5 years post-therapy by linking to Taiwan's cancer registry data from 2003 to 2019. We accounted for death and liver transplantation as competing risks and employed Gray's cumulative incidence and Cox subdistribution hazards models to analyze HCC development. Out of 2,779 patients, 480 (17.3%) developed HCC post-therapy. DM patients not using metformin had a 51% increased risk of HCC compared to non-DM patients, while HLP patients on statins had a 50% reduced risk compared to those without HLP. The 5-year HCC incidence was significantly higher for metformin non-users (16.5%) versus non-DM patients (11.3%; adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio [aSHR]=1.51; P=0.007) and metformin users (3.1%; aSHR=1.59; P=0.022). Statin use in HLP patients correlated with a lower HCC risk (3.8%) compared to non-HLP patients (12.5%; aSHR=0.50; P<0.001). Notably, the increased HCC risk associated with non-use of metformin was primarily seen in non-cirrhotic patients, whereas statins decreased HCC risk in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients. Metformin and statins may have a chemopreventive effect against HCC in CHC patients who failed antiviral therapy. These results support the need for personalized preventive strategies in managing HCC risk.

Magnetic resonance elastography for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B.

Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is used for the evaluation of liver fibrosis; however, it remains unclear whether MRE-based liver stiffness is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, particularly in patients with chronic hepatitis B. A total of 504 patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving MRE were enrolled. The primary endpoint was the association between MRE-based liver stiffness and HCC. In a cross-sectional analysis at the time of MRE measurement, the median (interquartile range) liver stiffness values in patients with presence or history of HCC and those without HCC were 3.68 (2.89-4.96) and 2.60 (2.22-3.45) kPa, respectively, and liver stiffness was significantly higher in patients with presence or history of HCC than in those without HCC (P < 0.001). In a longitudinal analysis of patients without HCC, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with liver stiffness ≥3.6 kPa and those with liver stiffness <3.6 kPa were 3.8%, 7.0%, and 22.9%, and 0%, 0.9%, and 1.5%, respectively (P < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, MRE-based liver stiffness (per 1 kPa) or liver stiffness ≥3.6 kPa was an independent factor for HCC development with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.0) or aHR of 8.22 (95% CI, 2.1-31). MRE-based liver stiffness is associated with HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B and may be used for the early prediction of HCC development and determination of indications for treatment.

Beneficial Effects of Traditional Chinese Medicine Fuzheng Huayu on the Occurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Compensated Chronic Hepatitis B Cirrhosis Receiving Entecavir: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study.

The application of antifibrotic drugs to treat patients with chronic liver diseases who are receiving antiviral therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been established. Here, we aimed to assess the impact of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Fuzheng Huayu (FZHY) on the occurrence of HCC in patients with hepatitis B virus-related compensated cirrhosis receiving the antiviral drug entecavir (ETV). A multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed. Compensated liver cirrhosis patients were divided into the ETV+FZHY group or the ETV group according to treatment. The cumulative incidence of HCC was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Propensity score matching was used for confounding factors. Stratified analysis and Cox regression were used to determine the effects of FZHY on the occurrence of HCC and liver function decompensation. Out of 910 chronic hepatitis B patients, 458 were in the ETV+FZHY group and 452 were in the ETV group. After propensity score matching, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 9.8% in the ETV+FZHY group and 21.8% in the ETV group (p<0.01). The adjusted hazard ratio for HCC was 0.216 (0.108, 0.432) when FZHY treatment was >36 months. Age, diabetes, alanine aminotransferase, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, hepatitis B e-antigen, and fibrosis 4 score were associated with the occurrence of HCC. FZHY decreased the risk of HCC in patients aged >45 years with a hepatitis B virus DNA level of ≥2,000 IU/l. Adjunctive FZHY treatment reduced HCC occurrence in patients with hepatitis B virus cirrhosis who were treated with ETV, possibly due to the antifibrotic properties of FZHY.

Distinct on-treatment HCC risks associated with different decompensation events in HBV patients with cirrhosis.

Long-term treatment with nucleoside analog (NA) reduces the risks for decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC). However, whether antiviral therapy has differential efficacy on the risks for decompensation and HCC is insufficiently elucidated. Therefore, we investigated the disease state transition, focusing on decompensation event-specific HCC risk in NA-treated CHB patients with CC. We prospectively followed up on 1163 NA-treated CHB patients with CC every six months for up to seven years. The cumulative incidence and risk of HCC were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and competing risk model. The multistate model was used to estimate the transition probabilities to HCC from different disease states. HCC predominated the first liver-related events, with a 5-year cumulative incidence of 9.0%, followed by decompensation (8.3%, including 7.9% nonbleeding decompensation and 2.4% variceal bleeding) and 0.2% death. The decompensation stage had a significantly higher 5-year cumulative HCC incidence than the CC stage (27.6% vs. 9.1%; HR = 2.42, 95% CI: 1.24, 4.71). Furthermore, nonbleeding decompensation events had a higher 5-year transition probability to HCC than bleeding (27.6% vs. 15.8%; HR = 2.69, 95% CI: 1.41, 4.17). Viral suppression modified the on-treatment transition risk to HCC (1-year: HR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.73; 3-year: HR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.38). An online calculator was developed to facilitate HCC risk stratification. In NA-treated CHB patients with compensated cirrhosis, the risk was higher for HCC than for decompensation; more importantly, different decompensation events conferred distinct HCC risks.

From the Editor’s Desk...

From the Editor’s Desk...

Metformin reduces hepatocellular carcinoma incidence after successful antiviral therapy in patients with diabetes and chronic hepatitis C in Taiwan

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is known to increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among individuals with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We aimed to evaluate whether metformin reduces HCC risk among individuals with DM and CHC after successful antiviral therapy. Individuals with CHC who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) after interferon-based therapy were enrolled in a large-scale, multicenter cohort in Taiwan (T-COACH). Cases of HCC at least 1 year after SVR were identified through linkage to the catastrophic illness and cancer registry databases. Of 7,249 individuals with CHC enrolled in the study, 781 (10.8%) had diabetes and 647 (82.8%) were metformin users. During a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 227 patients developed new-onset HCC. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 10.9% in non-metformin users and 2.6% in metformin users, compared to 3.0% in individuals without DM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.83; 95% CI 1.57-5.08 and aHR 1.46; 95% CI 0.98-2.19, respectively). Cirrhosis was the most important factor significantly associated with higher HCC risk in Cox regression analysis, followed by DM non-metformin use, older age, male sex, and obesity; whereas hyperlipidemia with statin use was associated with a lower HCC risk. Using the two most crucial risk factors, cirrhosis and DM non-metformin use, we constructed a simple risk model that could predict HCC risk among individuals with CHC after SVR. Metformin use was shown to reduce the risk of all liver-related complications. Metformin use greatly reduced HCC risk after successful antiviral therapy in individuals with diabetes and CHC. A simple risk stratification model comprising cirrhosis and DM non-metformin use could predict long-term outcomes in individuals with CHC after SVR. The current study provides evidence that metformin could reduce hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence after successful antiviral therapy among those with diabetes and chronic hepatitis C in a large-scale nationwide cohort study. Although successful antiviral therapy greatly reduces HCC risk in individuals with chronic hepatitis C, those with cirrhosis, diabetes, obesity, and the elderly remain at high risk of HCC development. We demonstrated that a simple risk model composed of two crucial unfavorable factors, cirrhosis and diabetes without metformin use, predicts the risk of HCC and major liver-related complications after successful antiviral therapy in individuals with chronic hepatitis C. Metformin use is highly recommended for individuals with diabetes and chronic hepatitis C after viral eradication to reduce the risk of HCC.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis and Prognostic Accuracy of the PAGE-B HCC Risk Score in a Low Endemic Hepatitis B Virus Infected Population.

PurposeWe aimed to determine incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and decompensated liver cirrhosis in persons with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Denmark stratified by disease phase, liver cirrhosis, and treatment status at baseline. Additionally, we aimed to assess the prognostic value of the PAGE-B HCC risk score in a mainly non-cirrhotic population.Patients and MethodsIn this register-based cohort study, we included all individuals over the age of 18, with chronic HBV infection first registered between 2002 and 2016 in at least one of three nationwide registers. The study population was followed until HCC, decompensated liver cirrhosis, death, emigration, or December 31, 2017, which ever came first.ResultsAmong 6016 individuals included in the study, 10 individuals with and 23 without baseline liver cirrhosis developed HCC during a median follow up of 7.3 years (range 0.0–15.5). This corresponded to five-year cumulative incidences of 7.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0–12.3) and 0.2% (95% CI 0.1–0.4) in persons with and without baseline liver cirrhosis. The five-year cumulative incidence of decompensated liver cirrhosis was 0.7% (95% CI 0.5–1.0). Among 2038 evaluated for liver events stratified by disease phase, incidence of HCC was low in all who were non-cirrhotic and untreated for HBV at baseline. PAGE-B score was evaluated in 1529 persons. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0, 0.8 (95% CI 0.5–1.8), and 8.7 (95% CI 1.0–16.4) in persons scoring <10, 10–17 and >17, respectively (c-statistic 0.91 (95% CI 0.84–0.98)).ConclusionWe found low incidence of HCC and decompensated liver cirrhosis in persons with chronic HBV infection in Denmark. Moreover, the PAGE-B score showed good accuracy for five-year risk of developing HCC in the population with chronic HBV infection in Denmark.

Development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C who had sustained viral response following direct-acting antiviral therapy

Background and AimSeveral studies have suggested that treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) may be associated with an increased risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the incidence and risk factors of HCC in HCV patients who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) following DAA therapies.Materials and MethodsThe medical data of patients who were diagnosed with HCV and received DAA therapy in two tertiary centers in Turkey were retrospectively collected.ResultsAmong them, 75 patients (52.4%) were noncirrhotic and 68 patients (47.6%) were cirrhotic. The overall SVR rate was 97.2% (139/143). It was 100% in noncirrhotic and 94.1% in cirrhotic patients. HCC was developed in 5 (7.4%) patients, all of whom had baseline cirrhosis. The annual rate of HCC occurrence was 2.94%, and the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 7.3%. The mean Child-Pugh score (CPS) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score significantly decreased after DAA treatment (CPS 7.0 vs 5.9, p=0.001; MELD 10.8 vs 9.5, p=0.003).ConclusionThere was no significant increase in the rate of HCC in cirrhotic HCV patients treated with DAAs. This treatment led to a remarkably high SVR rate and lowered CPS and MELD scores in cirrhotic HCV patients.

Efficacy of entecavir versus tenofovir in preventing hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B with maintained virologic response.

Several studies suggested that efficacy of tenofovir in reducing the risk of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) might be better than that of entecavir. It remains unknown whether a change in therapy can further reduce the risk of HCC in patients receiving entecavir therapy and achieved goal of antiviral therapy, a maintained undetectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level in the serum. A total of 1336 treatment-naïve chronic HBV mono-infected adult patients, who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment and achieved a maintained virologic response during follow-up were analysed. During a median 4.4years of follow-up (range, 1.0-7.4years) after achieving virologic response, 99 patients developed HCC. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rate was 7.3% and 6.3% for the entecavir and tenofovir groups, respectively, with similar risk of HCC between the two groups (adjusted HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.52-1.29; p=0.3). The risk of HCC was similar in the propensity score-matched cohort (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.68-1.52; p=0.94) and inverse probability treatment weighting analysis (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.74-1.66; p=0.62). In the subgroup analysis, HCC risk was similar between the two drugs in both patients with and without cirrhosis. In patients showing maintained virologic response, no difference in the risk of HCC between entecavir and tenofovir was observed. This indicates entecavir might be as effective as tenofovir in the prevention of HCC among those patients and suggest that a change in therapy in anticipation of further reducing the risk of HCC might not be necessary for patients receiving entecavir and showing virologic response.

Association of central obesity with hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral therapy.

Obesity is typically associated with metabolic dysfunction, but its impact on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). To study the effect of obesity on HCC development in patients with CHB receiving antiviral therapy. We included patients from a Chinese multicentre, prospective, observational, treated CHB cohort in this study. General obesity was evaluated by body-mass index (BMI). Central obesity was evaluated by waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and waist-to-height ratio. A total of 5754 nucleos(t)ide analogue treated patients were enrolled in the analysis. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 2.9%. Waist-to-height ratio performed better in predicting HCC development than BMI, waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio. Patients with central obesity (defined as waist-to-height ratio >0.5) had significantly higher 5-year incidence of HCC than those without central obesity in the overall population (3.9% vs 2.1%, hazard ratio [HR]: 2.06, P=0.0001) and 745 propensity score matched pairs (4.7% vs 2.3%, HR: 2.04, P=0.026), respectively. Besides cirrhosis status and aMAP HCC risk score, central obesity was also independently associated with HCC risk (HR: 1.63, P=0.013). Waist-to-height ratio gain within 1year was associated with a significantly higher HCC risk with an adjusted HR value of 1.88 (95% confidence interval: 1.12-3.13, P=0.017). Central obesity, evaluated by the waist-to-height ratio, was associated with a twofold increase in HCC risk among CHB patients receiving antiviral treatment, highlighting the important role of abnormal metabolic function in the progression of liver disease.

Hepatitis B core-related antigen predicts disease progression and hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis B e antigen-negative chronic hepatitis B patients.

The serum hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is considered a surrogate marker of the amount and activity of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA. This study aims to investigate the virological characteristics of HBcrAg in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and to reveal the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk factors of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients. Hepatitis B core-related antigen was measured in 245 naive CHB patients before receiving nucleoside/nucleotide analog (NA) therapy. All patients were receiving NA (entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, and tenofovir alafenamide) continuously for more than 1year until the end of follow-up, and they did not have a history of HCC. Hepatitis B viral status was compared between 106 HBeAg-positive and 139 HBeAg-negative patients. Median HBcrAg levels were significantly higher in HBeAg-positive patients than in HBeAg-negative patients (>6.8 vs 3.7log U/mL, P<0.01). In HBeAg-negative patients, higher HBcrAg levels were associated with cirrhosis (119 chronic hepatitis/20 cirrhosis=3.5/4.7log U/mL, P=0.03) and higher serum hepatitis B virus DNA. During a median follow-up of 5.28 (1.03-12.0) years, the 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rate was 5.4% in the HBeAg-negative cohort. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, higher HBcrAg levels at 1year were independent predictive factors for HCC development in HBeAg-negative patients who received NA therapy (cutoff value, 4.1log U/mL; hazard ratio, 6.749; 95% confidence interval, 1.334-34.15, P<0.01) and even in non-cirrhosis patients. Hepatitis B core-related antigen was useful for understanding disease progression in CHB patients and for stratifying the risk for carcinogenesis in HBeAg-negative patients receiving NA therapy.

Role of hepatitis D virus infection in development of hepatocellular carcinoma among chronic hepatitis B patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the natural course of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Its role in patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues (NAs) is unclear. We aimed to study the role of hepatitis D in the development of HCC in CHB patients treated with NAs. Altogether, 1349 CHB patients treated with NAs were tested for anti-HDV antibody and RNA. The incidence and risk factors of HCC development were analyzed. Rates of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity were 2.3% and 1.0%, respectively. The annual incidence of HCC was 1.4 per 100 person-years after a follow-up period of over 5409.5 person-years. The strongest factor association with HCC development was liver cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI] 9.98/5.11–19.46, P < 0.001), followed by HDV RNA positivity (HR/ CI 5.73/1.35–24.29, P = 0.02), age > 50 years old (HR/CI 3.64/2.03–6.54, P < 0.001), male gender (HR/CI 2.69/1.29–5.60, P: 0.01), and body mass index (BMI, HR/CI 1.11/1.03–1.18, P = 0.004). The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 7.3% for patients with HDV RNA negativity compared to that of 22.2% for patients with HDV RNA positivity (P = 0.01). In the subgroup of cirrhotic patients, the factors associated with HCC development were HDV RNA positivity (HR/CI 4.45/1.04–19.09, P = 0.04) and BMI (HR/CI 1.11/1.03–1.19, P = 0.01). HDV viremia played a crucial role in HCC development in CHB patients who underwent NA therapy.

Serum Myostatin Predicts the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Alcoholic Cirrhosis: A Multicenter Study

Simple SummarySarcopenia is prevalent in patients with liver cirrhosis. It has been well-known that cirrhotic patients with sarcopenia had poorer survival as compared to those without it, and expression of serum myostatin is associated with sarcopenia. In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether serum myostatin is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis or not. We found that serum myostatin is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma development in a large cohort of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Among patients with similar residual liver function or similar risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma using other models, higher serum myostatin was significantly associated with a higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition, patients with more advanced hepatic fibrosis had significantly higher serum myostatin than those with less advanced hepatic fibrosis. Thus, serum myostatin as a prognostic marker can be useful to identify high-risk patients who need stringent surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.Background and Aim: Previous studies reported that serum myostatin is associated with sarcopenia. We aimed to elucidate the association between serum myostatin levels and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC). Methods: This retrospective, multicenter study assessed 1077 Asian ALC patients enrolled from 2007 to 2017. The primary endpoint was the development of HCC within 5 years. Cox proportional hazards model analyses were used to assess the association of serum myostatin levels and HCC development. The time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of serum myostatin for 5-year HCC development were calculated. Serum myostatin levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with samples collected on the index date. Results: During a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 6.7% in the total population. The median level of serum myostatin was 3.3 ng/mL (interquartile, 2.1–5.2 ng/mL). The AUROC of serum myostatin for 5-year HCC development was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76–0.81). In Cox proportional hazards model analyses, age, gender, platelet counts, and serum myostatin levels were independent risk factors for HCC development (adjusted hazard ratios [HRs] of age, male gender, platelet counts, and serum myostatin: 1.03, 2.79, 0.996, 1.18, respectively; all p < 0.05). Patients with high myostatin levels had a significantly higher risk of 5-year HCC development than those with low myostatin levels (HR 7.53, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Higher serum myostatin levels were significantly associated with a higher risk of developing HCC in ALC patients, which could identify high-risk patients who need stringent surveillance.

Similar risk of hepatocellular carcinoma during long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B

A recent study in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reported that the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was lower in patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) than entecavir (ETV), but this finding remains controversial. We aimed to identify any differences in HCC incidence, or other patient outcomes, between patients receiving TDF or ETV in the well monitored, multicenter European PAGE-B cohort. We included 1,935 Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis, treated with ETV (n= 772) or TDF (n= 1,163) monotherapy. Mean follow-up was 7.1 ± 3.0 years from ETV/TDF onset. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 5.4% in ETV- and 6.0% in TDF-treated patients (log-rank, p= 0.321), with no significant difference in any patient subgroup (with or without cirrhosis, naïve or experienced to oral antiviral(s) [total, with or without cirrhosis]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, the hazard of HCC was similar between ETV- and TDF-treated patients after adjustment for several HCC risk factors. ETV- and TDF-treated patients had similar rates of on-therapy biochemical and virological remission, HBsAg loss, liver transplantation and/or death. Elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 (liver stiffness <12 kPa) was observed in 245/347 (70.6%) patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, being more frequent in TDF- than ETV- treated patients (73.8% vs. 61.5%, p= 0.038). In Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without cirrhosis, long-term ETV or TDF monotherapy is associated with similar HCC risk, rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death, but elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent with TDF. In a large cohort of Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy, cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ (up to 12 years). Nor did rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death. However, elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent in TDF- than ETV-treated patients with pretreatment cirrhosis.

Magnitude of and prediction for risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B taking entecavir or tenofovir therapy: A systematic review.

Entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) have been shown to reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This systematic review aims to evaluate the magnitude, change over time, and prediction of residual HCC risks in CHB patients treated with ETV/TDF therapy. Available literature was systematically reviewed through searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from January 1, 2006 to September 1, 2019, to identify cohort studies that reported HCC incidence in CHB patients during ETV/TDF therapy. Studies were screened by title and abstract and then evaluated for eligibility in terms of full text. We identified 141 studies for full-text review, and 34 were eligible for analysis. From 19 studies with data separated by cirrhosis status, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.5-6.9% in patients without cirrhosis, 4.5-21.6% in compensated cirrhosis, and 36.3-46.5% in decompensated cirrhosis. All four studies that addressed temporal changes in HCC risks consistently found the incidence rate decreased over time in patients with cirrhosis, although the findings were inconsistent in patients without cirrhosis. Six predictive scores were developed and validated to predict incident HCC during ETV/TDF therapy in CHB patients. Common scoring variables included age, sex, cirrhosis (fibrosis grade), and hepatic function. Conflicting results were reported in seven individual studies and two meta-analyses that compared ETV versus TDF. The residual risk of HCC remains during ETV/TDF treatment in CHB patients with cirrhosis but declines over time. Risk stratification is attainable by validated predictive scores.

From the Editor’s Desk…

From the Editor’s Desk…

On-treatment Serum Mac-2 Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer (M2BPGi) Level and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B during Nucleot(s)ide Analogue Therapy.

We aimed to analyze the serum level of a novel fibrosis marker, Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi), and its predictive value for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) under nucleot(s)ide analogue (NA) therapy. Serum M2BPGi levels were quantified in 147 CHB patients at baseline, 48 weeks after starting NA therapy, and at the patients’ last visit. The serum M2BPGi level serially decreased at each time point. During the median follow-up time of 6.6 years, 14 of 147 patients developed HCC. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis demonstrated that high serum M2BPGi at 48 weeks was an independent risk factor for HCC development. A cutoff value of M2BPGi at 48 weeks > 1.5 showed an adjusted hazard ratio = 34.9 (95% confidence interval, 4.3–284.9). The 3- and 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with low M2BPGi were 0.9% and 4.2%, respectively, whereas those in patients with high M2BPGi were 10.1% and 25.6%, respectively (p < 0.001). In conclusion, Serum M2BPGi level at 48 weeks is a useful predictor for HCC development in patients with CHB who receive NA therapy.

Adjuvant Fuzheng Huayu Capsule Reduces the Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B‐Caused Cirrhosis

Aim Fuzhenghuayu (FZHY) capsule can inhibit the progression of cirrhosis. This study explored whether FZHY can reduce the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis B-caused cirrhosis (HBC) undergoing antiviral therapy. Methods A retrospective review of 842 patients with HBC between 2011 and 2015 was performed, including 270 treated with FZHY combined with nucleos (t) ide analogues (NAs) and 572 with NAs alone. The incidence of HCC was compared between the FZHY (n = 259) and control (n = 259) groups using 1 : 1 propensity score (PS) matching. The incidence of HCC in patients with HBC with different Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classifications and Toronto HCC risk index (THRI) scores was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier curves. Results The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC before and after PS matching was 151 (17.9%) and 86 (16.6%), respectively. In PS-matched samples, the multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model indicated that the FZHY group demonstrated a significantly lower risk for HCC than the control group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.32, 95% CI 0.19–0.53 P < 0.001). The risk of HCC diminished with increased duration of FZHY use. The stratified analysis revealed that the FZHY group, regardless of CTP classification, benefited significantly from FZHY therapy. Patients in the medium- and high-THRI risk groups were the dominant population for FZHY. Conclusions FZHY combined with NAs was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than NAs alone in patients with HBC, which supports the integration of FZHY with antiviral treatment into clinical practice.

Reassessing the accuracy of PAGE-B-related scores to predict hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B

PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores were developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients on nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. However, how and when to use these risk scores in clinical practice is uncertain. Consecutive adult patients with chronic hepatitis B who had received entecavir or tenofovir for at least 6 months between January 2005 and June 2018 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. The performance of PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores for HCC prediction at 5 years was assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and different cut-off values of these 2 scores were evaluated by survival analysis. Of 32,150 identified patients with chronic hepatitis B, 20,868 (64.9%) were male. Their mean age was 53.0 ± 13.2 years. At a median (IQR) follow-up of 3.9 (1.8-5.0) years, 1,532 (4.8%) patients developed HCC. The AUROCs (95% CI) for the prediction of HCC at 5 years were 0.77 (0.76-0.78) and 0.80 (0.79-0.81), with PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores, respectively (p <0.001). A total of 9,417 (29.3%) patients were classified as having a low HCC risk by either PAGE-B or mPAGE-B scores; their 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.6% (0.4%-0.8%). This classification achieved a negative predictive value of 99.5% (99.4%-99.7%) to exclude patients without HCC development at 5 years. The AUROCs for the prediction of HCC with PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores were similar at baseline and after 2 years on treatment. PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores can be applied to identify patients on antiviral therapy who are at low risk of developing HCC. These patients could be exempted from HCC surveillance due to their very low HCC risk. Risk scores have been developed to predict the likelihood of patients with chronic hepatitis B developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the role of 2 such scores, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B, in predicting the risk of HCC in 32,150 nucleos(t)ide analogue-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. These scores identified a group of patients at very low risk of developing HCC who could therefore be exempted from HCC surveillance.