1930s Dust Bowl Research Articles

Dust to Feed, Dust to Gray: The Effect of in Utero Exposure to the Dust Bowl on Old-Age Longevity

Intensive agriculture and deep plowing caused topsoil erosion and dust storms during the 1930s, affecting agricultural income and land values for years. Given the growing literature on the relevance of in utero and early-life exposures, it is surprising that studies focusing on links between the Dust Bowl and later-life health have produced inconclusive and mixed results. We reevaluate this literature and study the long-term effects of in utero and early-life exposure to topsoil erosion caused by the 1930s Dust Bowl on old-age longevity. Specifically, using Social Security Administration death records linked with the full-count 1940 census, we conduct event studies with difference-in-differences designs to compare the longevity of individuals in high- versus low-topsoil-erosion counties before versus after 1930. We find intent-to-treat reductions in longevity of approximately 0.85 months for those born in high-erosion counties after 1930. We show that these effects are not an artifact of preexisting trends in longevity. Additional analyses suggest that the effects are more pronounced among children raised in farm households, females, and those whose mothers had lower education. We also provide suggestive evidence that reductions in adulthood income are a likely mechanism for the effects we document.

Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-mountain Region of Wyoming

Long-term trends in reference evapotranspiration (ETref) and its controlling factors are critical pieces of information in understanding how agricultural water requirements and water resources respond to a variable and changing climate. In this study, ETref, along with climate variables that directly and indirectly impact it, such as air temperature (T), incoming solar radiation (Rs), wind speed (u), relative humidity (RH), and precipitation (P), are discussed. All variables are analyzed for four weather stations located in irrigated agricultural regions of inter-mountain Wyoming: Pinedale, Torrington, Powell, and Worland. Non-parametric Mann−Kendall (MK) trend test and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator were used to determine the statistical significance of positive or negative trends in climate variables and ETref. Three non-parametric methods—(i) Pettitt Test (PT), (ii) Alexandersson’s Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), and (iii) Buishand’s Range Test (BRT)—were used to check the data homogeneity and to detect any significant Trend Change Point (TCP) in the measured data time-series. For the data influenced by serial correlation, a modified version of the MK test (pre-whitening) were applied. Over the study duration, a statistically significant positive trend in maximum, minimum, and average annual temperature (Tmax, Tmin, and Tavg, respectively) was observed at all stations, except for Torrington in the southeast part of Wyoming, where these temperature measures had negative trends. The study indicated that the recent warming trends are much more pronounced than during the 1930s Dust Bowl Era. For all the stations, no TCPs were observed for P; however, significant changes in trends were observed for Tmax and Tmin on both annual and seasonal timescales. Both grass and alfalfa reference evapotranspiration (ETo and ETr) had statistically significant positive trends in at least one season (in particular, the spring months of March, April, and May (MAM) or summer months of June, July, and August (JJA) at all stations, except the station located in southeast Wyoming (Torrington) where no statistically significant positive trends were observed. Torrington instead experienced statistically significant negative trends in ETo and ETr, particularly in the fall months of SON and winter months of DJF. Over the period-of-record, an overall change of +26, +31, −48, and +34 mm in ETo and +28, +40, −80, and +39 mm in ETr was observed at Pinedale, Powell, Torrington, and Worland, respectively. Our analysis indicated that both ETo (−3.4 mm year−1) and ETr (−5.3 mm year−1) are decreasing at a much faster rate in recent years at Torrington compared to other stations. Relationships between climate variables and ETo and ETr on an annual time-step reveal that ETo and ETr were significantly and positively correlated to Tavg, Tmax, Rs, Rn, and VPD, as well as significantly and negatively correlated to RH.

Separate tree-ring reconstructions of spring and summer moisture in the northern and southern Great Plains

The two most severe droughts to impact the Great Plains in the twentieth century, the 1930s Dust Bowl and 1950s Drought, were the result of multiyear moisture deficits during the spring and especially the summer season. Tree-ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index indicate similar droughts in magnitude have occurred in previous centuries, but these reconstructions do not capture the potential distinct seasonal drought characteristics like those of the 1930s and 1950s. Separate tree-ring reconstructions of the spring and summer Z-index based on earlywood, latewood, and adjusted latewood width chronologies have been developed for two regions in the northern and southern Great Plains of the US. The reconstructions extend from 1651 to 1990 and 1698–1990, respectively, with instrumental data added from 1991 to 2017. The four reconstructions explain from 39 to 56% of the variance during the 1945–1990 calibration interval and are significantly correlated with independent moisture balance observations during the 1900–1944 validation period. The reconstructions reproduce similar seasonal sea-surface temperature and 500 mb geopotential height spatial correlation patterns detected with the instrumental data. The 1930s is estimated to have been the most extreme decadal summer drought to impact the two regions concurrently in the last few centuries. On average, spring moisture deficits were more severe during the multidecadal droughts of the mid- to late-nineteenth century, but the timing of drought onset and termination differed between the study regions. In the recent two decades the spring moisture balances for the two study regions have largely been opposite, and this has been one of the most extreme periods of anti-phasing in the last few centuries. Seasonal moisture reversals are not randomly distributed in time based on the reconstructed estimates and are related to sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and to mid-tropospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific–North American sector during May and June.

Factors Contributing to Record-Breaking Heat Waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl

Record-breaking summer heat waves were experienced across the contiguous United States during the decade-long “Dust Bowl” drought in the 1930s. Using high-quality daily temperature observations, the Dust Bowl heat wave characteristics are assessed with metrics that describe variations in heat wave activity and intensity. Despite the sparser station coverage in the early record, there is robust evidence for the emergence of exceptional heat waves across the central Great Plains, the most extreme of which were preconditioned by anomalously dry springs. This is consistent with the entire twentieth-century record: summer heat waves over the Great Plains develop on average ~15–20 days earlier after anomalously dry springs, compared to summers following wet springs. Heat waves following dry springs are also significantly longer and hotter, indicative of the importance of land surface feedbacks in heat wave intensification. A distinctive anomalous continental-wide circulation pattern accompanied exceptional heat waves in the Great Plains, including those of the Dust Bowl decade. An anomalous broad surface pressure ridge straddling an upper-level blocking anticyclone over the western United States forced substantial subsidence and adiabatic warming over the Great Plains, and triggered anomalous southward warm advection over southern regions. This prolonged and amplified the heat waves over the central United States, which in turn gradually spread westward following heat wave emergence. The results imply that exceptional heat waves are preconditioned, triggered, and strengthened across the Great Plains through a combination of spring drought, upper-level continental-wide anticyclonic flow, and warm advection from the north.

Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

The Tropical Pacific Ocean displays persistently cool sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last several years to a decade, with either no El Niño events or a few weak El Niño events. These cause large-scale droughts in the extratropics, including major North American droughts such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, and also modulate the global mean surface temperature. Here we show that two models with different levels of complexity—the Zebiak–Cane intermediate model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1—are able to produce such periods in a realistic manner. We then test the predictability of these periods in the Zebiak–Cane model using an ensemble of experiments with perturbed initial states. Our results show that in most cases the cool mean state is predictable. We then apply this method to make retrospective forecasts of shifts in the decadal mean state and to forecast the mean state of the Tropical Pacific Ocean for the upcoming decade. Our results suggest that the Pacific will undergo a shift to a warmer mean state after the 2015–2016 El Niño. This could imply the cessation of the drier than normal conditions that have generally afflicted southwest North America since the 1997–1998 El Niño, as well as the twenty-first-century pause in global warming. Implications for our understanding of the origins of such persistent cool states and the possibility of improving predictions of large-scale droughts are discussed.

Multiple causes of wind erosion in the Dust Bowl

The Dust Bowl refers to a disaster focused in the Southern Great Plains of North America during the 1930s, when the region experienced extreme wind erosion. Dry farming techniques increased soil erodibility. Drought reduced both soil cohesion, making it more erodible, and land cover, leaving the soil less protected from wind action. Low crop prices (driven by the Great Depression), extremely poor harvests (driven by drought), and lack of knowledge of regionally-appropriate tillage practices left farmers unable to implement erosion control on their land. The 1930s drought was severe, but neither unusual in the region nor extreme in length from a climatological perspective. Sea-surface temperature changes in the Atlantic and Pacific forced changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation over North America. The result was persistent, intensifying drought within the Southern Great Plains for multiple years, causing a cascade of desiccation. Increased atmospheric dust and increased frequency of cyclones crossing the region may also have exacerbated Dust Bowl conditions. The Dust Bowl resulted from the simultaneous combination of drought and economic depression in a region where farmers had not yet learned effective land management techniques. Economic recovery, cessation of drought, and implementation of erosion control programs combined to end the Dust Bowl by the end of the 1930s. Many lessons were learned from the 1930s Dust Bowl regarding the physical and anthropogenic causes of dust storms and how to mitigate them. As a result, though dust storms continue on the Southern Great Plains, their severity is significantly reduced.

The 1930s Dust Bowl: Geoarchaeological lessons from a 20th century environmental crisis

The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was an environmental crisis of epic proportions characterized by unprecedented soil erosion, population redistribution, and profound transformation of the landscape in the Great Plains region of the United States. Therefore, one might expect that this event left a mark in the sedimentary and geomorphological record of the region. This study is a field reconnaissance of sedimentary and landscape changes that can be linked to the event. To achieve this objective, the Dust Bowl is analyzed as a climatic event, a geomorphic event, and a socioeconomic event. The geoarchaeological approach taken here is based on that of the archaeology of the contemporary past (Harrison and Schofield, 2010), which incidentally coincides with the Anthropocene, as defined by Crutzen (2002). The results of this survey can be useful to those who search for geomorphic evidence of environmental crises in the more distant past.

What Makes Events Extreme?

More than two decades ago, I participated in the launch of two journals with my colleague James K. Mitchell: Global Environmental Change (as founding book review editor) in 1990 and Environmental Hazards (as founding co-editor) in 1999. Global Environmental Change focused on the policy dimensions of socioecological systems at a time when much of the research was limited to natural science perspectives. Environmental Hazards aimed at the dynamic and enduring nature of human engagement with risky environments, incorporating both natural and social science research. Today, both journals continue to publish cutting-edge integrated research on human-environment interactions and are among the premier outlets for social science global change and hazards research. As the complexity of human-environment interactions becomes more apparent and our methods and models advance understanding of such complex systems, uncertainties in the patterns, processes, and impacts of change remain, whether these originate in human systems, environmental systems, or their intersection. It is the burgeoning concerns about weather and climate extremes and surprises in human-environmental systems prompted the launch of this new journal. The publication of Journal of Extreme Events provides an opportunity for reflection on how we have come to understand the interactions between human and natural systems functioning not only in the past, but at present, and into the future. There have always been extreme events and extreme consequences that impaired or altered the operation of natural systems, human systems, or both. One can easily think of the 1930s Dust Bowl as an example (Worster 2004). The meteorological drought in the Great Plains began in 1930 and lasted until 1939, when the rains returned. Pre-existing human conditions magnified the drought’s impact not only during the 1930s but long afterward. Rapid settlement and agricultural development during previous decades (which were wetter) led to unsustainable practices J Extreme Events, Vol. 1, No. 1 (2014) 1402001 (4 pages) © World Scientific Publishing Company DOI: 10.1142/S2345737614020011

Drought and Associated Impacts in the Great Plains of the United States—A Review

The Great Plains region of the United States is susceptible to drought of all kinds including meteorological/climatological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic. Drought conditions in the region span varying spatial and temporal scales and the causes include: 1) certain synoptic conditions that favor drought such as mid-tropospheric ridging over the drought-affected area and a weak low-level jet; 2) sea surface temperature anomalies and associated teleconnections; 3) land-atmosphere coupling; and 4) anthropogenic effects. While drought can span as few as a couple of months, the most severe droughts can occur at the decadal scale such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, the worst drought in recent history from a societal standpoint. Such droughts in the Great Plains have widespread impacts on agriculture, water resources, human health, and the economy.

North American Droughts of the Last Millennium from a Gridded Network of Tree-Ring Data

Abstract Drought is the most economically expensive recurring natural disaster to strike North America in modern times. Recently available gridded drought reconstructions have been developed for most of North America from a network of drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies, many of which span the last 1000 yr. These reconstructions enable the authors to put the famous droughts of the instrumental record (i.e., the 1930s Dust Bowl and the 1950s Southwest droughts) into the context of 1000 yr of natural drought variability on the continent. We can now, with this remarkable new record, examine the severity, persistence, spatial signatures, and frequencies of drought variability over the past milllennium, and how these have changed with time. The gridded drought reconstructions reveal the existence of successive “megadroughts,” unprecedented in persistence (20–40 yr), yet similar in year-to-year severity and spatial distribution to the major droughts experienced in today’s North America. These megadroughts occurred during a 400-yr-long period in the early to middle second millennium a.d., with a climate varying as today’s, but around a drier mean. The implication is that the mechanism forcing persistent drought in the West and the Plains in the instrumental era is analagous to that underlying the megadroughts of the medieval period. The leading spatial mode of drought variability in the recontructions resembles the North American ENSO pattern: widespread drought across the United States, centered on the Southwest, with a hint of the opposite phase in the Pacific Northwest. Recently, climate models forced by the observed history of tropical Pacific SSTs have been able to successfully simulate all of the major North American droughts of the last 150 yr. In each case, cool “La Niña–like” conditions in the tropical Pacific are consistent with North American drought. With ENSO showing a pronounced signal in the gridded drought recontructions of the last millennium, both in terms of its link to the leading spatial mode, and the leading time scales of drought variability (revealed by multitaper spectral analysis and wavelet analysis), it is postulated that, as for the modern day, the medieval megadroughts were forced by protracted La Niña–like tropical Pacific SSTs. Further evidence for this comes from the global hydroclimatic “footprint” of the medieval era revealed by existing paleoclimatic archives from the tropical Pacific and ENSO-sensitive tropical and extratropical land regions. In general, this global pattern matches that observed for modern-day persistent North American drought, whereby a La Niña–like tropical Pacific is accompanied by hemispheric, and in the midlatitudes, zonal, symmetry of hydroclimatic anomalies.

The will to conservation: A Burkeian analysis of dust bowl rhetoric and American farming motives

The 1930s Dust Bowl has been accepted as the worst environmental disaster in United States history. Analysis of the rhetoric of agricultural conservationists which focuses on this issue reveals that its potential for promoting environmentally sound land‐use practices was limited. This essay relies on Kenneth Burke's theory of identification and pentadic ratios to identify the hierarchy of motives associated with land use. I argue that the vulnerability of conservation efforts to competing forces was largely a function of that hierarchy and suggests that an action‐oriented perspective would be more conducive to responsible land use.

Marvin Jones: The Public Life of an Agrarian Advocate.

Son of a north Texas wheat- and cotton-farming family, Marvin Jones grew up with strong agrarian roots and a taste for Democratic politics. Elected to Congress in 1916, he joined the Texas delegation and learned the political ropes from John Nance Garner. Named to the House Agriculture Committee, Jones later became its chairman and directed the destiny of New Deal agricultural legislation in the House of Representatives. Jones's Panhandle district lay in the 1930s Dust Bowl. As Roosevelt's chairman of the Agriculture Committee, he fought for New Deal farm legislation--low-interest loans and mortgages for farmers, soil conservation, farm subsidies, agricultural research, and new markets for farm products. Many of today's federal agricultural policies were born in his committee room. As war food administrator in World War II, Jones put his knowledge and experience to use in balancing U.S. agricultural production with military and civilian food requirements. At war's end he accepted a judgeship on the U.S. Court of Claims and later became chief judge, noted for just, compassionate decisions couched in everyman's language. Jones was a gentle, hard-working man, a realist who extolled the rural life but accepted the urbanization of America. More reserved than his mentor, Garner, less shrewd than his good friend Sam Rayburn, Jones probably surpassed them both in terms of real achievement. Using archival sources and Jones's memoirs as well as his own numerous interviews with Judge Jones, Irvin May provides a solid account of this transplanted Texan who remained the farmer's advocate throughout his life.