Year Of Project Research Articles

Review of Deep Ocean Manned Submersible Activity in 2013

AbstractThe world of manned underwater vehicles (MUV) in 2013 counts a total of 95 active submersibles used for ocean research, tourism, and commercial, leisure, and security applications. The MUV industry safety record remains pristine, with not a single incident involving loss of life in over 40 years. The paper reviews the state and future directions for the world’s deepest ocean research submersibles. In 2012 and 2013, the world of deep research submersibles saw dramatic advances, reaching full ocean depth for the first time in more than 50 years. The record of the world’s deepest submersible held by Japan’s Shinkai 6500, rated to 6,500 m depth, for almost 25 years was surpassed by China’s 10-year development project of the Jiaolong submersible, rated to 7,000 m. The Jiaolong successfully completed its multiyear testing program, achieving full design depth in June 2012. This record feat was eclipsed, however, by the surprise disclosure and full ocean depth dive by James Cameron’s Deepsea Challenger, diving to a depth of 10,908 m in the Mariana Trench just months earlier. This depth had not been reached since the historic dive of the bathyscaphe Trieste in 1960, and brings new energy for several national organizations to develop full ocean depth submersibles. There are today a total of 14 national and commercial submersibles capable of diving 1,000 m or deeper, offering a wide range of services. This also provides a global network of rescue capability with locations in the United States, China, Japan, Russia, France, Spain, Canada, and Portugal.

Neuroscience thinks big (and collaboratively)

Despite cash-strapped times for research, several ambitious collaborative neuroscience projects have attracted large amounts of funding and media attention. In Europe, the Human Brain Project aims to develop a large-scale computer simulation of the brain, whereas in the United States, the Brain Activity Map is working towards establishing a functional connectome of the entire brain, and the Allen Institute for Brain Science has embarked upon a 10-year project to understand the mouse visual cortex (the MindScope project). US President Barack Obama's announcement of the BRAIN Initiative (Brain Research through Advancing Innovative Neurotechnologies Initiative) in April 2013 highlights the political commitment to neuroscience and is expected to further foster interdisciplinary collaborations, accelerate the development of new technologies and thus fuel much needed medical advances. In this Viewpoint article, five prominent neuroscientists explain the aims of the projects and how they are addressing some of the questions (and criticisms) that have arisen.

Peer Tutoring in Social Work Education: A Study of Changes in the Authority of Knowledge and Relationships between Students and Teachers in Norway

This article draws on findings from a 10-year research project focused on the consequences of a peer tutoring program introduced in 2002 in order to teach counseling skills to first-year students enrolled in the bachelor degree program of a Norwegian child welfare faculty. Using a variety of quantitative and qualitative research methods involving more than 400 tutors, tutees and teachers acting as co-investigators of the program, it was found that peer tutoring resulted in a number of significant changes. Central among these were increased learning potentials among tutors, greater activity and feelings of freedom for exploring knowledge among tutees, together with an enhanced sense of belonging to a developing community of professional practitioners. Following a brief outline of the methods and findings of the study, this article examines how the traditional authority of the teacher's knowledge in the classroom was destabilized and then transformed by the peer tutoring program. In concluding, the article briefly describes the transitional learning community which evolved among students and teachers in the program.

Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections

Errors from past rounds of population projections can provide both diagnostic information to improve future projections as well as information for users on the likely uncertainty of current projections. This paper assesses the forecast accuracy of official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections for the states and territories of Australia and is the first major study to do so. For the states and territories, it is found that, after 10-year projection durations, absolute percentage errors lie between about 1% and 3% for the states and around 6% for the territories. Age-specific population projections are also assessed. It is shown that net interstate migration and net overseas migration are the demographic components of change which contributed most to forecast error. The paper also compares ABS projections of total population against simple linear extrapolation, finding that, overall, ABS projections just outperformed extrapolation. No identifiable trend in accuracy over time is detected. Under the assumption of temporal stability in the magnitude of error, empirical prediction intervals are created from past errors and applied to the current set of ABS projections. The paper concludes with a few ideas for future projection rounds.

Fiscal and Generational Imbalances and Generational Accounts: A 2012 Update

The consistent refusal by Obama Administration officials to release details of the Office of Management and Budget's long range budget projections compelled the use of the only other reliable source of budget information: The Congressional Budget Office's 10-year budget projections from March 2012. In making its calculations, this paper extends those projections beyond 10 years using CBO's long range economic assumptions. This study also updates micro-data relative profiles used to distributed federal taxes, transfers, and other federal expenditures by age and gender. Provision by the Social Security Administration's Felicitie Bell of US population projections and underlying demographic assumptions used in the Social Security trustees' 2012 annual report and responses by CBO officials to the author's clarifying questions on CBO's federal budget accounting conventions are gratefully acknowledged.

Control of terrestrial animal rabies in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, after oral vaccination of raccoons (1998–2007)

To evaluate the effectiveness of an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) project conducted from 1998 through 2007 in Anne Arundel County, Md, for the control of rabies in terrestrial animals. Retrospective analysis of surveillance data (1997 through 2007). Free-ranging raccoons (Procyon lotor) and other terrestrial mammals. Vaccinia-rabies glycoprotein recombinant virus oral rabies vaccine-bait units were distributed annually by aircraft and ground teams targeting free-ranging raccoons. Approximately 2 to 4 weeks following the vaccine-bait placement, raccoons were live trapped, sedated, processed, and then released. Serologic samples were tested for the presence of rabies virus-neutralizing antibodies (RVNAs). Bait acceptance was estimated by analysis of tetracycline biomarking of sampled teeth. Rabies incidence was determined by the passive identification of rabid terrestrial animals. The incidence of rabies in terrestrial animals decreased 92% between 1997 (the year prior to the start of the ORV project) and 2007. The mean RVNA prevalence across all years was 33% among trapped raccoons in areas baited with a fish meal polymer bait type, whereas the mean bait acceptance was 30%. Adult raccoons had a seropositivity rate twice that of juvenile raccoons, whereas the bait acceptance rate between adults and juveniles did not differ significantly. For areas baited with a coated sachet bait, adults and juveniles had the same seroprevalence. Juveniles had better seroprevalence when the annual campaign started in September and October, compared with August. The ORV project contributed to a significant decrease in annual incidence of terrestrial animal rabies in Anne Arundel County, Md, during the 10-year project period. For fish meal polymer baits, juvenile raccoons accessed bait at the same rate as adult raccoons but had a significantly lower prevalence of RVNAs. For coated sachet baits, seroprevalence was the same in both age groups. The time of year the bait distribution occurred and the bait type used may be partial explanations for the difference in RVNA seroprevalence between adults and juvenile raccoons.

Efficiency of Adaptive and Mixed-Line-Rate IP Over DWDM Networks Regarding CAPEX and Power Consumption [Invited

Optimization of IP over dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) networks is studied under the constraints of energy and cost minimization. Realistic IP traffic mapped to the optical DWDM layer together with leased lines form the basic traffic load, which is expanded by factors of 33 and 100 for a 10-year projection. The DWDM core network (USA 66) is analyzed for mixed-line-rate (MLR) and reach/bandwidth-adaptive scenarios; the latter is realized by optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing. Both scenarios are studied for flat and hierarchical network approaches and for different channel grid configurations. Network optimization due to capital expenditure and power consumption yield no significant differences for the IP layer regarding different scenarios (flat and hierarchical) or network approaches (MLR and adaptive network). In contrast, the wavelength division multiplexing layer shows benefits for the hierarchical network regarding cost and power and for the adaptive approach regarding the total number of transponders and fibers used. We show that elastic and MLR networks can achieve comparable performance levels using a 12.5 GHz grid. This article is a more detailed version of Klekamp et al., OFC, 2012, OTh3B.1, and extends previous studies in a German network [J. Lightwave Technol., vol. 30, p. 215, 2012], now comparing the techniques in a US network under different conditions regarding distances and topology.

PGI11 Economic Evaluation of the Use of Peg-Interferon Alfa 2A in the Treatment of Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Public Mexican Perspective

To evaluate the costs associated with the treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) treated with Peg-interferon Alpha-2a versus Peg-Interferon Alpha 2b. For an initial distribution of patients it was used as an assumption that 60% of patients had chronic hepatitis and the other had compensated hepatitis. With this information was developed a Markov model with probabilities of disease evolution. The stages for this model from this were: liver cancer, ascites, refractory ascites, gastrointestinal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, liver transplantation and death. Costs are expressed in US dollars. The highest response rates were found with Peg-Interferon Alpha-2a for genotypes 1, 2 and 3 with a difference up to 15% compared to Peg-Interferon Alpha-2b. Due to a higher sustained virological response rate with Peg-Interferon Alpha-2a, the percentage of patients using this treatment had a lower probability of falling and developing chronic complications of the disease. Therefore, the cost of the disease treatment decreases. Also the cost of treatment with Peg-Interferon Alpha-2a is lower compared to Peg-Interferon Alpha 2b. For a 10-year projection which simulates through a Markov model that patients that did not respond to treatment evolved to chronicity of the disease costs per patient with Peg-interferon Alpha-2a was $ 25,913, while with Peg-Interferon Alpha-2b was $ 37,352, generating savings of $ 11,439 per patient who was treated with Peg-interferon Alpha-2a. The use of Peg-Interferon Alpha-2a was the dominant alternative because it was the most effective and least costly to treat HCV.

Spatial comparison of areas at risk for schistosomiasis in the hilly and mountainous regions in the People’s Republic of China: evaluation of the long-term effect of the 10-year World Bank Loan Project

The long-term effectiveness of the mainly chemotherapy-based control strategy of the World Bank Loan Project (WBLP) for schistosomiasis control in Chinese hilly and mountainous regions was evaluated with a view to determine the best road forward. Based on the national database of schistosomiasis prevalence for the periods of 1999-2001 and 2007-2008 in the People's Republic of China, a Bayesian regression model was used for spatial comparison of schistosomiasis risk distribution between two periods taking account of all the potential risk factors simultaneously through two latent components of random effects: spatially correlated heterogeneities (CH) and spatially uncorrelated heterogeneities (UH). Four different types of endemic areas were investigated: those that remained endemic despite control efforts (17 or 37.8%), those that became non-endemic (9 or 20.0%), those that reverted back to endemicity (7 or 15.6%), and those with fluctuating endemicity (12 or 26.7%). The overall prevalence of schistosomiasis was lower in 2007-2008 compared with that in 1999-2001, but the spatial distribution of risk remained similar. Compared to 1999-2001, the magnitude and range of risk even tended to be greater in 2007-2008. UH showed a fluctuating pattern, while CH increased gradually doubling over the two periods. There was no evidence for long-term effectiveness of the WBLP chemotherapy-based control strategy in this region. Controlling the effect of UH is still the main aspect of current schistosomiasis control strategy for the hilly and mountainous regions, but innovative methods are urgently needed for effectively controlling UH.

Recent Sino-Italian collaborative studies on marine organisms from the South China Sea

In this communication, selected results obtained in the course of a 10-year Sino-Italian collaborative project are presented. During this collaboration, several studies on marine organisms collected in the South China Sea have been conducted, resulting in the characterization of a large number of novel natural products. The main interest has been focused on sponges, cnidarians, and molluscs. Here, the recent research, including some not yet published studies, on cnidarians and molluscs, in particular, opisthobranchs and pulmonates, will be briefly described. The study of cnidarians and pulmonates led to isolate molecules, in particular, biscembranoids and polypropionates, displaying carbon skeletons already described in previous papers. Our studies resulted in their complete structural characterization including the absolute stereochemistry that was clarified by coupling X-ray diffraction to circular dichroism (CD) spectra analysis. Some unique nitrogenous molecules containing either an isonitrile function or an 1,2,4-oxadiazole moiety, this latter found for the first time in a marine organism, as well as known sesterterpenoids and diterpenoids were isolated from opisthobranchs. Owing to their anatomical location, these metabolites should play a relevant role in the protection of the molluscs. Finally, a series of alkaloids structurally related to known anticancer agents were also characterized.

A Vision of How Mouse Vision Can Reveal Consciousness' Secrets

Neuroscientist Christof Koch of the California Institute of Technology is embarking on a 10-year project to study vision in the mouse brain, funded by a new donation of $300 million from Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen.

Escalation in Global Outsourcing Projects: The XperTrans–C&C BPO Case

This case concerns a one billion (US) dollar 10-year global outsourcing project signed in 2007 to outsource major parts of the human resource (HR) function of a major multinational company. The client and supplier embarked on a large-scale implementation plan and ran into difficulties on meeting deadlines and delivering the systems required. The case focuses on the step-by-step phased roll-out in the client's Europe, Middle East and Africa region covering 44 countries. The case follows the many attempts to stabilise and deliver the project. In June 2010, the supplier sold its HR line of business to another supplier, which became responsible for the project. The case documents the strategy, governance, project management and escalation issues to March 2011, and asks questions about the practices exhibited so far, and future decisions on strategic sourcing, project management, de-escalating the problems and the retained capabilities needed by the client.

Energy and Cost Efficiency of Adaptive and Mixed-Line-Rate IP Over DWDM Networks

Optimization of IP over DWDM networks is studied under constraints of cost (CAPEX) and energy consumption. Realistic IP traffic mapped to the optical DWDM which is expanded by a factor of 33 and 100 for a 10-year projection. General power and cost savings are taken into account for the 2020 scenarios. The DWDM core network (Germany 50) is analyzed for mixed-line-rate and reach/bandwidth adaptive scenarios; the latter is realized by optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (O-OFDM). Although the adaptive scenario shows to be more hardware efficient in terms of total number of transponders, the mixed-line-rate approach has slight advantages regarding cost and power. Moreover, a hierarchical network can show benefits in cost and power consumption compared to a network without restrictions in routing at high traffic loads.

Expected long-term survival of older patients diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma in 2008–2012

Background: New therapeutic options have led to substantial increases in survival expectations of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in recent years. In contrast to many malignancies, survival in older patients has improved in NHL at a rate similar to that in younger patients. In the past, the impact of innovations on long-term survival of NHL patients on the population level has been disclosed only with substantial delay. Methods: We employ a novel model-based projection method to estimate survival expectations of NHL patients age 60+ diagnosed in 2008–2012. Preliminary empirical evaluation of the method using historical data indicates excellent performance in projection of age specific and overall 5- and 10-year relative survival. Results: Overall 5- and 10-year survival projections for 2008–2012 were 67.5% and 56.9%, respectively, 8.2 percentage units (% units) and 15.2% units, respectively, higher than the most recent survival estimates available from traditional cohort analysis. Projected survival decreased with age, ranging from 79.1% for patients age 60–64 to 54.3% for patients age 80+. Projected survival estimates for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and follicular lymphoma were 59% and 84.9%, respectively. Survival estimates by model-based projection were substantially higher than available cohort estimates for all age groups including 80+, each specific morphology examined, nodal and extranodal disease, and both genders. Conclusions: Patients over 60 diagnosed with NHL in 2008–2012 have much higher long-term survival expectations than suggested by previously available survival statistics.

Using Targeting Outcomes of Programs as a Framework to Target Photographic Events in Nonformal Educational Programs

Targeting Outcomes of Programs (TOP) is a seven-step hierarchical programming model in which the program development and performance sides are mirror images of each other. It served as a framework to identify a simple method for targeting photographic events in nonformal education programs, indicating why, when, and how photographs would be useful to inform other evaluation strategies. In two case studies, photographs enhanced the formative story of a geoscience project being developed and tested, and contributed to the outcome narrative of a 10-year partnership project between two universities. In both cases, TOP proved to be an efficient and easy-to-use framework. Using TOP in this fashion has the potential to help evaluators address challenges posed by the subjectivity of photography and possible biases of the photographer in the research process.

Backcasting U.S. oil demand over a turbulent decade

This paper compares 10-year backcast projections of U.S. petroleum consumption for the 2000–2009 period based upon a range of functional forms. Although a univariate specification based upon only lagged consumption performed better than most approaches, it provides little value to the policymaker who wants to understand the factors that influence oil consumption and by how much. One structural approach performed considerably better than all other approaches including the univariate model. This specification is the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model that allowed oil demand to respond differently (asymmetrically) to price increases and decreases. Certain forms of this equation, however, do well while others perform poorly. Evaluations of backcast projections over different periods and updated frequently can be important byproducts of energy modeling.

Super subterranean hub: updating King's Cross St Pancras

An £810 million, 10-year project to update London's oldest and busiest underground railway station was completed in 2010. Enabled by the Channel Tunnel Rail Link Act 1996 , the redevelopment of King's Cross St Pancras station has doubled its capacity and provided step-free access to all platforms. This paper focuses on the design and construction of the spacious northern ticket hall and associated access tunnels to the three deepest Tube lines. Construction of the 21 m deep excavations and 300 m of tunnels had to be undertaken with great care to minimise disruption to what is now a state-of-the-art national and international transport hub.

American black bear estrus and parturition in the Alleghany Mountains of Virginia

Timing of parturition and, to a lesser extent, estrus, are rarely explored aspects of American black bear (Ursus americanus) reproductive ecology. The Cooperative Alleghany Bear Study was an intensive 10-year multi-faceted research project conducted on 2 study areas in western Virginia. We examined timing of estrus based on 430 observations of 326 lone (without cubs at the time of capture) female bears from late May–August, 1994–2002. We estimated parturition date for 383 cubs from 150 litters born from 1996–2003 to 99 individual females ranging from 3–24 years old. Bears were documented in estrus from late May through August with a peak during early July. Parturition dates ranged from late December to mid February with most births occurring in mid January. Three- and 4-year olds gave birth, on average, 12 days later than older bears. We suggest parturition date likely affects den exit date and perhaps cub survival, an area requiring further inquiry.

Overview of Arabidopsis Resource Project in Japan

Arabidopsis is well-known to the world's plant research community as a model plant. Many significant resources and innovative research tools, as well as large bodies of genomic information, have been created and shared by the research community, partly explaining why so many researchers use this small plant for their research. The genome sequence of Arabidopsis was fully characterized by the end of the century. Soon afterwards, the Arabidopsis research community began a 10-year international project on the functional genomics of the species. In 2001, at the beginning of the project, the RIKEN BioResource Center (BRC) started its Arabidopsis resource project. The following year, the National BioResource Project was launched, funded by the Japanese government, and the RIKEN BRC was chosen as a core facility for Arabidopsis resource. Seeds of RIKEN Arabidopsis transposon-tagged mutant lines, activation-tagged lines, full-length cDNA over-expresser lines, and natural accessions, as well as RIKEN Arabidopsis full-length cDNA clones and T87 cells, are preserved at RIKEN BRC and distributed around the world. The major resources provided to the research community have been full-length cDNA clones and insertion mutants that are suitable for use in reverse-genetics studies. This paper provides an overview of the Arabidopsis resources made available by RIKEN BRC and examples of research that has been done by users and developers of these resources.

Sex ratio of infants born to women with severe chronic constipation

We thank Dr James for his comments to help us better understand an unexpected finding of our previous study. The objective of our 10-year project was a systematic analysis of all maternal diseases during the study pregnancy that may effect the fetal development, particularly for the risk of congenital abnormalities and preterm birth, the two most important components of infant mortality and handicaps in the large population-based Hungarian Case-Control Surveillance of Congenital Abnormlities.1 This research series resulted in some unexpected findings, one of which was the excess of male infants born to pregnant women with severe chronic constipation. In fact, we – medical geneticist (AEC), mathematician (HEP), and obstetrician (FB) – were not able to find an appropriate explanation for this unexpected new finding. Our hope was that after the publication of the short report of these data, experts in this field would provide a more reasonable hypothesis for this phenomenon. We are happy that our hopes were realized with Dr James’ letter.