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Toxic pollution and labour markets: uncovering Europe’s left-behind places

This paper looks at the co-evolution of toxic industrial pollution and economic deprivation by means of spillovers from the plant’s production activities. Geolocalised facility-level data from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) are used to calculate annual chemical-specific pollution, weighted by its toxicity. We combine the latter with regional data on employment, wages, and demographics sourced from Cambridge Econometrics, covering more than 1200 NUTS‑3 regions in 15 countries, over the period 2007–2018. We employ quantile regressions to detect the heterogeneity across regions and understand the specificities of the 10th and 25th percentiles. Our first contribution consists in giving a novel and comprehensive account of the geography of toxic pollution in Europe, both at facility and regional level, disaggregated by sectors. Second, we regress toxic pollution (intensity effect) and pollutant concentration (composition effect) on labour market dimensions of left-behind places. Our results point to the existence of economic dependence on noxious industrialisation in left-behind places. In addition, whenever environmental efficiency-enhancing production technologies are adopted we observe associated labour-saving effects in industrial employment, but positive regional spillovers. Through the lens of economic geography, our results call for a new political economy of left-behind places within the realm of sustainable development.

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Sustainable and inclusive development in left-behind places

Scholarly work in economic geography and regional science has recently seen a renewed interest in spatial inequalities, driven significantly by the debate on left-behind places and the resulting geographies of discontent. The plight of left-behind places calls for new place-based policy responses that address the specific challenges of these regions but that at the same time address grand societal challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, or pollution with synthetic chemicals. Despite growing attention among economic geographers and regional scientists to either green or inclusive regional development approaches, how to reconcile environmental sustainability and social inclusiveness in highly challenged left-behind places remains poorly understood. This editorial reflects on and critically discusses the literature on left-behind places and distils unifying conceptual characteristics of left-behindness. We argue that left-behindness is a temporal, relational, multidimensional, discursive, but not deterministic concept. The non-determinism of left-behindness opens up different choices for actors to shape regional futures. Imagining and negotiating these futures involves dealing with difficult potential trade-offs between environmental sustainability and social inclusiveness, some of which are explored by the articles in this special issue.

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Forecasting first-year student mobility using explainable machine learning techniques

In the context of regional sciences and migration studies, gravity and radiation models are typically used to estimate human spatial mobility of all kinds. These formal models are incorporated as part of regression models along with co-variates, to better represent regional specific aspects. Often, the correlations between dependent and independent variables are of non-linear type and follow complex spatial interactions and multicollinearity. To address some of the model-related obstacles and to arrive at better predictions, we introduce machine learning algorithm class XGBoost to the estimation of spatial interactions and provide useful statistics and visual representations for the model evaluation and the evaluation and interpretation of the independent variables. The methods suggested are used to study the case of the spatial mobility of high-school graduates to the enrolment in higher education institutions in Germany at the county-level. We show that machine learning techniques can deliver explainable results that compare to traditional regression modeling. In addition to typically high model fits, variable-based indicators such as the Shapley Additive Explanations value (SHAP) provide significant additional information on the differentiated and non-linear effect of the variable values. For instance, we provide evidence that the initial study location choice is not related to the quality of local labor-markets in general, as there are both, strong positive and strong negative effects of the local academic employment rates on the migration decision. When controlling for about 28 co-variates, the attractiveness of the study location itself is the most important single factor of influence, followed by the classical distance-related variables travel time (gravitation) and regional opportunities (radiation). We show that machine learning methods can be transparent, interpretable, and explainable, when employed with adequate domain-knowledge and flanked by additional calculations and visualizations related to the model evaluation.

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