PurposeThis paper aims to conduct a comparative study on the impact of income diversification and the main non-interest components on banks’ financial performance and risk-adjusted profitability in China and Egypt.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses both static and dynamic panel regression analyses on a sample of Egyptian and Chinese banks from 2009 to 2022.FindingsIncome diversification yields positive effects on bank profitability in Egypt and China. Trading income consistently exhibits a significant positive influence on bank profitability in both nations. Conversely, fee-based income positively impacts bank profitability in China, whereas in Egypt, this effect is observed under dynamic-based regression models. On the contrary, income diversification does not consistently increase risk-adjusted profitability in both countries, especially Egypt.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the impact of income diversification on Egyptian bank performance while identifying the most significant non-interest income components. In addition, the comparative analysis conducted in this study reveals the positioning of China, the largest economy among emerging countries, in terms of the degree of income diversification, its impact on bank profitability and the extent to which non-interest income components contribute to bank profitability when compared with Egypt, representing an emerging country characterised by different levels of bank market power, financial infrastructure and expertise. Findings hold significant implications, suggesting that bank managers and policymakers should prioritise diversifying income sources, particularly through fee-based services and trading activities in China, and trading activities in Egypt, to enhance financial profitability.

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the conditional volatility of the Asian stock market concerning Bitcoin and global crude oil price movement.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the newest Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC)-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to examine the conditional volatility of the stock market for Bitcoin and crude oil prices in the Asian perspective. The sample stock market includes Chinese, Indian, Japanese, Malaysian, Pakistani, Singaporean, South Korean and Turkish stock exchanges, with daily time series data ranging from 4 April 2015−31 July 2023.FindingsThe outcome reveals the presence of volatility clustering on the return series of crude oil, Bitcoin and all selected stock exchanges of the current study. Secondly, the outcome of DCC, manifests that there is no short-run volatility spillover from crude oil to the Malaysian, Pakistani and South Korean and Turkish stock markets, whereas Chinese, Indian, Japanese, Singapore stock exchanges show the short-run volatility spillover from crude oil in the short run. On the other hand, in the long run, there is a volatility spillover effect from crude oil to all the stock exchanges. Thirdly, the findings suggest that there is no immediate spillover of volatility from Bitcoin to the stock markets return volatility of China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea and Singapore. In contrast, both the Japanese and Turkish stock exchanges exhibit a short-term volatility spillover from Bitcoin. In the long term, a volatility spillover effect from Bitcoin is observed in all stock exchanges except for Malaysia. Lastly, based on the outcome of conditional variance, it can be concluded that there was increase in the return volatility of stock exchanges during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic.Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis below does not account for the bias induced due to certain small sample properties of DCC-GARCH model. There exists a huge literature that suggests other methodologies for small sample corrections such as the DCC connectedness approach. On the other hand, decisive corollaries of the conclusions drawn above have been made purely based on a comprehensive investigation of eight Asian stock exchange economies. However, there is scope for inclusive examination by considering other Nordic and Western financial markets with panel data approach to get more robust inferences about the reality.Originality/valueMost of the empirical analysis in this perspective skewed towards the Nordic and Western countries. In addition to that many empirical investigations examine either the impact of crude oil price movement or Bitcoin performance on the stock market return volatility. However, none of the examinations quests the crude oil and Bitcoin together to unearth their implication on the stock market return volatility in a single study, especially in the Asian context. Hence, current investigation endeavours to examine the ramifications of Bitcoin and crude oil price movement on the stock market return volatility from an Asian perspective, which has significant implications for the investors of the Asian financial market.

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to examine factors influencing cash holding of firms during periods of crisis. In recent times, the level of cash holdings in firms has seen a steady rise across industries for diverse reasons. However, the need to study cash holding becomes even more compelling during geopolitical instability as it causes firms to hold greater cash reserves for precautionary reasons.Design/methodology/approachThis paper systematically reviews literature from 1984 to 2024 by organising the findings thematically based on the relationship between corporate cash holdings (CCH) and firm performance in times of war. The paper used 47 research articles from the Scopus database and Google Scholar. Literature connected to CCH, firm performance and war times was explored. The title and abstract analysis were conducted using VOSviewer software. As a result, the predetermined body of literature was visualised, and six theme-based clusters were identified.FindingsThis paper systematically reviews empirical studies, categorising them into six theme-based groups. These clusters encompass CCH and Determinants, Optimal Cash Holding Levels, Cash Holding Adjustment Speed and Theory, Cash Holding and Firm Value, Cash Holding and Firm Performance, Cash Holding in the Context of the Ukraine War and the adaptive financial strategies of firms in response to economic conditions by using cash holding as a hedging instrument. Inflation prompts adjustments in cash-holding strategies at a macro level. During crises, lower interest rates lead to increased cash holdings. Various motives influence firms’ cash-to-assets ratios. According to the pecking order theory, geopolitical risk negatively affects cash holdings. Exposure to pandemics prompts an increase in cash reserves. War shocks have a profound impact on economies, markets and stability; hence, geographic diversification can reduce the need for precautionary cash. In times of uncertainty, the financial stress of firms can get elevated, and therefore, having a well-diversified geographical portfolio of a firm’s investments can aid in meeting any financially distressing situation.Originality/valueThe literature on CCH has been phenomenal. This paper attempts to structure the issues surrounding cash holding and firm performance in wartime, like the Ukraine war, using the VOSviewer software. This study endeavours to highlight the reasons for cash holding during crises and understand how cash holding affects firm performance. Finally, this paper also tries to comprehend whether cash holding helps as a hedging instrument in times of war.

PurposeThis study aims to examine the export competitiveness of Vietnam’s apparel sector by identifying the precise product categories that create its comparative advantage.Design/methodology/approachRevealed comparative advantage (RCA) and normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) form the research methodology, and the RCA/NRCA values are calculated for the 2011–2020 period.FindingsIn total, 29 out of 34 product categories at four-digit levels and 65 out of 217 subcategories at six-digit levels elicited a consistent export comparative advantage throughout the 10-year study timeframe. The study also identified 13 subcategories at six-digit levels, which indicated 10 consecutive years of relative disadvantages.Research limitations/implicationsThe study’s findings have far-reaching implications for economic policy, development strategies and global economic integration. By providing a nuanced understanding of a country’s export strengths in the international apparel trade, this study offers valuable guidance for informed decision-making at various levels. The findings will serve as a significant source of information for policymakers and help them formulate novel policies aiming to diversify Vietnam’s apparel product offerings and export destinations. The results will also inform the government regarding the industry’s potential and attract necessary support, enabling it to grow further. This study reveals patterns in Vietnam’s apparel trade but does not provide insights into the underlying causes of comparative advantage.Originality/valueThe study provides an in-depth overview of Vietnam’s comparative advantages and disadvantages at two-, four- and six-digit harmonized system levels and helps understand Vietnam’s apparel export competitiveness.

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on trade flows in Asia Pacific countries and explores the causality between COVID-19-related shocks and trade.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used two novel techniques, namely, two-stage instrumental-variables (2SIV) approach and Juodis, Karavias and Sarafids (JKS) causality test, to examine trade dynamics in the Asia Pacific region during the pandemic.FindingsUsing the monthly trade data of 17 Asia Pacific countries between January 2020 and December 2021, the results were threefold. Firstly, the empirical analysis showed that during the COVID-19 crisis, the flow of exports tended to persist idiosyncratically in comparison to the flow of imports. In particular, a specific finding was that the persistence level in exports was about 20%–25% higher than that in imports. Secondly, the authors found that the past values of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths contain information that helps to predict exports/imports over and above the information contained in the past values of exports/imports alone. Finally, the study established that the government response and stringency indexes have a Granger-causal relationship with exports and imports.Research limitations/implicationsFor the foreseeable future, these findings have significant policy ramifications. Firstly, if a COVID-19 crisis-like situation emerges in the future, it will be critical for countries to maintain their competitiveness throughout the crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic, while also rebuilding trade relationships wherever possible. Secondly, because information about government responses and measures can also be used to predict future trade flows, prudent management of government responses and stringent measures will be necessary in a crisis like COVID-19 to achieve the optimum level of exports and imports. At the same time, the trading partners should give up the idea of trade protection and focus on finding a way to balance the conflicting needs of imports and exports.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, the authors, for the first time, used a 2SIV approach and JKS causality test to examine trade dynamics in the Asia Pacific region during the pandemic. In addition, the authors present the first comprehensive analysis of the evolving relationships between export and import flows and governmental policy responses under COVID-19. As a result, it contributes uniquely to both public and international economics.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide a nuanced explanation of the linkage between entrepreneurial motivations, job attractiveness and growth of family-owned small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) using expectancy and institutional theories.Design/methodology/approachThe data was collected from small family business owners and job seekers in the same companies during interview time using a simple random technique.FindingsThe study found that three EMs among small business owners play a pivotal role in family SME business growth in underdeveloped trade regions like China–Pakistan Economic Corridor. These firms are interested in investing in seaport-related commerce, restaurants or hotels and real estate business.Practical implicationsThe government, small family business owners, universities and regional youth can use this applied research for their benefits alike.Originality/valueThe study contributes in multiple ways. First, the authors brought a unique context in the emerging economies context of an informal economy like Pakistan. Second, the authors have uniquely tested the moderating role of job attractiveness in the least developed regions. Finally, the authors have integrated family SMEs’ expectancy theory and institutional perspective.

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the relationships between loan growth, loan losses and net income after the 2008 global financial crisis. This study further conducts a comparative analysis by considering the period of COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses panel data models such as one-step system GMM, random effects, fixed effects and OLS, with a data set of 131 Chinese commercial banks from 2009 to 2020.FindingsThe study finds no significant relationship between loan growth and future loan losses. However, after adjusting loan loss by net interest income (NII-adjusted loan loss), the study reveals that loan growth in the subsequent year decreases if NII-adjusted loan loss increases. The study also demonstrates the positive effect of loan growth on net income as newly expanded loans are funded at similar costs but offered at a lower rate compared with existing loans. During COVID-19, loan growth and net income were higher than in previous years.Originality/valueThe findings suggest that Chinese banks can increase lending to support the economy without sacrificing loan quality, emphasizing the importance of maintaining and enhancing credit policies and practices. Chinese banks should also continue to refine their pricing strategies for loans and deposits. The findings also imply that China's policy responses to the impact of COVID-19 could serve as lessons for future policy decisions.

Purpose This study investigates the impacts of Chinese media reporting strategy (media tone) on the market performance of US-trade-intensive firms vs non-US-trade-intensive firms and the effect of media tone on the occurrence of good and bad news. Design/methodology/approach News texts were retrieved from nine major financial/economic media outlets. Lexical analysis and event study have been adopted to examine the impact of different types of news during the US–China trade frictions on Chinese firms. Findings The results show that US-trade-intensive firms vs non-US-trade-intensive firms exhibited different reactions to media coverage. US-trade-intensive firms care more about the governmental attitudes toward the trade war and potential policy supports implied in the official media reports than non-US-trade-intensive firms do. The return-chasing behavior hypothesis is supported by US-trade-intensive investors, and this effect is further enhanced when multiple releases occur on the same day. A higher media tone combined with intensified media releases significantly increases the volatilities of both US-trade-intensive and non-US-trade-intensive firms. Practical implications Information provided by this study helps the regulatory authorities to formulate measures to enhance investor confidence and better optimize resource allocation. Originality/value This study investigates the asymmetric effect of media tone on US-trade-intensive firms vs non-US-trade-intensive firms, which has not been examined, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, in the existing literature.

Purpose This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war. Findings The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements. Originality/value The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.