Purpose This study aims to assess the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) inflows on poverty in 60 developing countries and whether this effect depends on the effectiveness of these recipient countries’ governments in better allocating these inflows. Design/methodology/approach The analysis has applied the quantile regression (QR) approach on an unbalanced panel data set of 60 developing countries over the period 2009–2018. Findings The findings showed a positive and significant overall correlation between AfT and poverty. This favourable effect, however, only applies to the non-least developed countries (LDCs). However, under a more effective governance environment, the aggregate AfT inflows appeared to reduce poverty levels for the full sample of countries, particularly for the LDCs. Originality/value This study is considered the initial empirical investigation of the relationship between AfT and poverty using the QR approach, and whether this relationship depends on the government effectiveness of these nations. The QR approach enables determining if this effect is more significant in recipient nations with higher rates of poverty (LDCs) than in recipient nations with lower rates of poverty (non-LDCs).

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze food fertilizer products’ trade networks among Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) member nations during 2005–2022. Design/methodology/approach To explore the nature of revealed comparative advantage, intra-sectorial trade specialization and intra-industry trade, this paper used Balassa, Lafay and Grubel-Lloyd indexes. On the other hand, economic networks were used to investigate fertilizer trade centrality in global trade networks. Findings This paper concluded that Thailand and India have the most diversified fertilizer trade markets. In contrast, Nepal and Bhutan exhibited high import centrality toward a few source regions. Hence, significant scope exists to diversify fertilizer export and import markets within BIMSTEC member nations to avoid region-specific dependence on international trade. Originality/value This paper lies apart in its precise emphasis on linking national resource security issues with import-export policy formulation for food fertilizers, where earlier studies have not been examined. Dealing with this intersection allows the existing paper to offer a reenergized perspective on harmonizing resource sustainability with economic objectives. Hence, this fills a primary void in the existing literature by suggesting hands-on strategies and expanding current knowledge.

Purpose This paper aims to examine the trade diversion effect of AFCFTA in two largest economies in the continent (Nigeria and South Africa) and compared trade diversion effect with other trading partners. There is evidence of trade diversion effect of AFCFTA trade policy on African–China trade relations both in South Africa and Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach This study empirically investigates the potential effect of AFCFTA on Chinese trade with African countries in a Single Market Partial Equilibrium Simulation Tool (WITS-SMART) Model. WITS-SMART is partial equilibrium analysis which implies that the analysis only considers the effects of a given policy action in the market(s) that are directly affected. Findings The conclusion from this study is that based on the volume of trade between African countries and China the estimated trade diversion of 1.2 million USD for South Africa and 1.1 million USD for Nigeria in 20 top products is considerably low and may not be of any significant consequence to alter the trajectory of African–China trade relations. Despite this, it is pertinent for each country to identify the affected products involve in trade diversion and design strategies to create credible alternatives to minimize the potential effect. Originality/value Many studies have examined the impact of AfCFTA on African economy without examining the potential trade diversion of the policy. This study expands the focus of AfCFTA discourse beyond the immediate African economy by investigating the potential trade diversion of this new trade policy with the African largest trade partners.

Purpose This study aims to examine the moderating impact of firm age and corporate governance on the relationship between investor protection (IP) and stock price crash risk (SPCR) in Asian economies. Design/methodology/approach The study utilized annual data from 432 publicly traded nonfinancial firms from six Asian economies: China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Pakistan and Singapore. The study period spanned 16 years, from 2007 to 2022. The sample was divided into three categories, including the overall sample and developing and developed economy subgroups. The hypotheses were tested using a generalized least squares panel regression approach. Findings The results suggest that corporate governance and firm age negatively moderate the relationship between IP and SPCR in Asian economies, revealing that firms with better corporate governance practices and older firms may experience a more pronounced reduction in SPCR. Firms in developing Asian economies that adopt stronger governance standards are more effective in reducing the likelihood of substantial declines in stock prices than those in developed Asian economies. Originality/value This study makes multiple contributions to the existing body of literature. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine the moderating impact of firm age and corporate governance on the relationship between IP and stock price crash risk in Asia. While prior research has primarily focused on either the direct impact of IP or corporate governance on stock price behavior, this study integrates firm age and corporate governance factors as moderators, shedding light on their joint effects on mitigating SPCR. This is likely one of the first studies by a research team in Asia that compares the nonfinancial markets of developed and developing Asian countries.

Purpose This study aims to examine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and inflation affect bank loan pricing decisions both individually and jointly in China. Design/methodology/approach Panel regressions are used on data from Chinese banks spanning 2005–2022. Findings The analysis reveals that both local and global EPU negatively affect bank loan pricing, while inflation exerts a positive impact. Moreover, higher inflation mitigates the negative impact of EPU on loan pricing, whereas increased EPU amplifies inflation’s effect on loan prices. These findings hold when the data are segmented into two bank groups: the Big Four and joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine how EPU and inflation, both individually and together, influence loan pricing in China. The findings provide insights into how monetary policies (which affect inflation) and economic policies (which shape EPU) interact to shape loan pricing in China’s state-driven banking system. These insights can help banks refine their loan pricing and risk management strategies, assist investors and borrowers in making informed decisions and guide policymakers in balancing socioeconomic stability with financial stability during uncertain and inflationary periods. Ultimately, this can help mitigate negative impacts on the banking sector and the broader economy.

Purpose This study aims to empirically assess whether Laos may be a suitable candidate for a potential Renminbi (RMB) zone under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) based on the optimum currency area (OCA) theory. Design/methodology/approach This paper develops a two-country structural vector autoregression model, identify structural shocks using both the Uhlig’s (2005) sign restrictions and the Bjørland and Leitemo’s (2009) combination of short-run and long-run zero restrictions, and analyze the impacts of China’s supply and demand shocks on Laos’ gross domestic product (GDP) and price level using data from 1984 to 2023. Findings This paper finds that the BRI has played a positive role in promoting the Laos−China economic integration: Over time, the effects of China’s macroeconomic shocks not only increased but also became the dominant force driving Laos’ economy during the BRI period of 1999–2023. Research limitations/implications This study is limited by data availability for Laos. Higher-frequency data, if available, would have revealed more nuances in the evolution of economic integration between the two countries. Practical implications The findings suggest that, according to the Eurozone standard in Chow and Kim (2003), joining a Renminbi zone may be feasible for Laos as the BRI continues to strengthen economic ties between the two countries. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to quantitatively assess economic integration between Laos and China, with a particular focus on the impact of the BRI. The findings may provide insights into important policy issues related to the BRI, the RMB’s role in the global economy, and Laos’ future exchange rate management.

Purpose This study aims to investigate the critical factors influencing the likelihood of Vietnamese financial firms cross-listing on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) by using the Cox proportional hazards model. Design/methodology/approach This analysis uses data spanning from 2010 to 2023, gathered from 84 Vietnamese firms in the financial sector. The Cox model is used for its flexibility in capturing the relationship between covariates and cross-listing likelihood over time. Findings The results support the capital market segmentation theory, indicating a limited correlation between the two markets. Consequently, Vietnamese financial firms are motivated to pursue cross-listings on the SGX. In addition, trading volume liquidity has a positive impact on cross-listing, consistent with the market liquidity hypothesis. The findings further unveil that foreign ownership, managerial performance, firm size and exchange rate volatility exert positive effects on the likelihood of Vietnamese financial firms being cross-listed on the SGX. Originality/value While the existing research in this field primarily focuses on businesses listed in developed markets, there is a noticeable lack of studies investigating the factors that influence the likelihood of cross-listing for businesses in an emerging country such as Vietnam. Furthermore, previous research has primarily focused on providing explanations for past cross-listing decisions, which can be viewed as observations made on the downstream outcomes rather than the upstream decision-making process. Given these considerations, this study suggests an innovative approach that prioritises prediction rather than explanation.

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nonperforming loans (NPLs) in Nigerian banks, focusing on the period from 2010 to 2023. It also evaluates how bank-specific characteristics such as capitalization, liquidity, profitability and cost efficiency influence NPLs during economic downturns. Design/methodology/approach The study uses panel data analysis, using pooled ordinary least squares. It incorporates two-stage least squares (2SLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) to address endogeneity, with subsample analyses for pre-COVID-19, during/post-COVID-19 and smaller versus larger banks. Findings The study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased NPLs in Nigerian banks, with smaller banks experiencing a more pronounced impact compared to larger ones. Key bank-specific characteristics such as capitalization, profitability and liquidity played crucial roles in mitigating NPL levels, with higher capitalization serving as a protective buffer against losses. The analysis also identified significant interaction effects, indicating that the relationship between these financial health indicators and NPLs was reshaped during the pandemic. Robustness tests confirmed that the adverse effects on NPLs were consistent across various measures of COVID-19 and different bank sizes, underscoring the need for strategic policy interventions to enhance financial stability in the banking sector. Practical implications The findings underscore the need for improved risk management strategies and capital buffers in banks, especially during periods of global economic disruption. Policymakers must enhance regulatory frameworks and ensure adequate liquidity provisions to maintain financial stability in future crises. Originality/value This study provides novel insights into the dynamics of NPLs in the Nigerian banking sector amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, a relatively underexplored area in the literature. By integrating robust panel data methodologies, including 2SLS and GMM, the research addresses critical endogeneity issues often present in financial studies. In addition, the examination of interaction effects between bank-specific characteristics and pandemic-related variables contributes to a deeper understanding of how these factors influence NPLs. This research not only enriches the existing literature but also offers practical implications for policymakers and banking practitioners seeking to enhance financial stability during economic crises.

PurposeThis study aims to examine the effect of cryptocurrency frauds on the price fluctuations of the cryptocurrency market.Design/methodology/approachTo examine the effects of cryptocurrency frauds on cryptocurrency market, the authors have collected data of 38 cryptocurrencies price fluctuations between 01/01/2020 and 28/11/2021. The authors have used the multidimensional scaling method (MDS) to explore the price fluctuations of the cryptocurrency market and its relationship with the cryptocurrency market between 2020 and 2021.FindingsThe study results showed that even though cryptocurrencies are categorised into Bitcoin, Altcoins and Stablecoins, the effect of the frauds is specific to their usage cases. Bitcoin and certain Altcoins were affected in a certain way compared to Ethereum and cryptocurrencies specialised in smart contracts. Cryptocurrencies such as Tron and Elrond with the specifications of staking had a different reaction and cryptocurrencies that contribute to the development and enhancement of blockchain infrastructure had a different reaction throughout these incidents. Stablecoins, however, were unaffected by the fraud incidents because of their reliability and their correlation to real assets such as fiat money, petrol and gold.Practical implicationsThe study enables financial institutions to understand how to react to cryptocurrencies, which are both an opportunity and a challenge for them. Consequently, banks should strengthen their security measures to protect customer funds from the risks associated with fraud and cyber-attacks. They should also implement risk management measures and guarantee the integrity of their systems to ensure stability and confidence in the use of cryptocurrencies. In addition, institutions should work in collaboration with the authorities to overcome regulatory challenges and create a favourable framework for the use of cryptocurrencies.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this paper is to examine this topic, which has been very little explored in previous work. The lack of theoretical and empirical evidence concerning this study represented a challenge, and an originality as studies concerning cryptocurrency fraud are limited, if not non-existent. The second contribution is quantitative and uses a MDS to examine price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market and its relationship with the cryptocurrency market.