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The COVID-19 epidemic and total mortality: missed data and the incoming epidemiology

The generation of rapid information has been an important novelty in the COVID-19 pandemic and a challenge for epidemiology. The methodological frailty and uncertainty of rapid data use has been a consequence. We are talking about an 'intermezzo' epidemiology between the event and the production of consolidated data that opens up great opportunities to the use epidemiology for rapid public health decisions, provided a careful work to be done before emergencies. In Italy, an ad hoc national COVID-19 information system producing daily data that quickly became essential for public decision-making. Total and all-cause mortality data are derived from the traditional information system of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), which, at the onset of the pandemic, was unable to provide rapid total and all-causes mortality data at the national level and still produces them with a one- to two-month delay. National cause and place mortality data referred to the first epidemic wave (March and April 2020) was in May 2021 and recently updated (October 2022) for the whole year 2020. Nearly three years after the onset of the epidemic, we have no nationwide rapid information on the distribution of deaths by place of death (hospitals, nursing homes and other care facilities, home) neither on their breakdown in 'by COVID-19', 'with COVID-19', and 'non-COVID-19' deaths. The pandemic being still in progress, new problems arise (the long-term impact of COVID-19, the impact of lockdown policies, etcetera), whose solution cannot be postponed until peer reviewed papers are available. A fine-tuning of the rapid processing of interim data certainly requires the development of national and regional information systems, but first of all a methodologically robust 'intermezzo' epidemiology.

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Not only COVID-19. Not only Ukraine. Under-reported hunger crises in the Horn of Africa and the politics around them.

Funding requirements for humanitarian needs have reached a record high, driven by Ukraine's war, other conflicts worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change-related disasters, economic slowdown, and their combined global consequences. More people are in need of humanitarian assistance, and more are forcibly displaced than ever before, the majority of them from countries facing acute food insecurity. The largest global food crisis in modern history is unfolding. Particularly, in the Horn of Africa, levels of hunger are alarmingly high, with countries edging close to famine. This article discusses why and how famine, which had declined in frequency and lethality, is resurging, using Somalia and Ethiopia as 'mini case studies', emblematic as they are of a broader trend. Technical and political aspects of food crises and their consequences on health are analysed. The article examines some of the most contentious issues around famine: the data challenges for declaring it and the use of starvation as a weapon of war. The article concludes with the claim that the elimination of famine is possible, but only through political action. Humanitarians can warn of an impending crisis and mitigate some of its consequences, but they are powerless in the face of an ongoing famine, like those described in Somalia and Ethiopia.

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Clinical care pathway appropriateness of the intoxicated paediatric patient: a retrospective evaluation with Poisoning Severity Score

to assess the clinical care impact resulting from the lack of a regional reference Centre for Paediatric Poisoning in Liguria Region (Northern Italy) and to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of paediatric patients who accessed the Emergency Department of the 'Gaslini' Paediatric Hospital (Genoa, Liguria Region) for intoxication. retrospective cohort study. patients' cases of both sexes, <18 years old, who accessed the Emergency Department of the 'Gaslini' Paediatric Hospital between January 2017 and December 2019 for intoxication. the Poisoning Severity Score (PSS), a simple and reliable scoring system to describe poisonings and define their severity, was used. The primary objective was pursued by investigating the percentage of cases of intoxication which followed, in the study period, a clinical care pathway inconsistent with the degree of severity ascertained through the retrospective application of the PSS. Clinical-demographic data, triage tag color-coding, and causes of intoxication of cases were also collected. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize results. a total of 172 cases were identified over the study period; 28 did not meet the inclusion criteria. The final analysis involved 144 cases of intoxication, 70 were from females and 74 from males, with a median age of 3 years-old; 60% of study cases followed a clinical care pathway consistent with the intoxication severity ascertained trough the PSS, in 40% of study cases the clinical care pathway was inconsistent with PSS. The triage tag colour-code assigned was green in 16% of accesses, yellow in 82%, and red in only 2%. Out of the total of accesses, 40% of cases were attributed to drug intoxication in which the agents most involved were analgesics and sedative-hypnotic drugs, 30% to carbon monoxide and fumes poisoning, 23% to food/other substance intoxication, and 7% to alcohol intoxication. implementing a referral Centre for Paediatric Poisoning could potentially affect 40% of access to the Emergency Department. Further analysis should be carried out to clarify whether an integrated Telemedicine Service could guide the correct management of intoxicated paediatric patients by referring them, through the Poisoning Severity Score system, for home monitoring or immediate hospitalization, if necessary.

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COVID-19 severity appears to be reduced in spring/summer.

because of different human behaviours, SARS-CoV-2 spread may be lower in spring/summer. On the contrary, it is not clearly known whether the clinical course/severity of hospitalized patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 can be different in the various seasons.. to understand whether there were differences in severity of COVID-19 in patients who had contracted the infection in winter versus those infected in spring/summer. observational retrospective cohort study. from the administrative database of the SARS-CoV-2 surveillance system and that of hospital discharge, a cohort of patients (8,221, 653 of which were hospitalized) who tested positive to the RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 between 01.12.2020 and 31.07.2021 in the Grosseto province (Tuscany Region, Central Italy) was selected and analysed. hospitalization rate and length, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) or non-invasive ventilation (NIV) use, Intensive Care Unite (ICU) admissions, intra-hospital mortality and PaO2/FiO2 values were measured and compared between subjects infected in winter and those who developed COVID-19 in spring/summer. Viral load (cycle threshold, Ct), vitamin D, serum ferritin, IL-6, procalcitonin, D-dimer, and C-reactive protein measured in the two periods were also compared. in the considered months, the hospitalization rate among 8,221 patients with COVID-19 was 8%: 370 (8.5%) individuals were hospitalized in winter and 283 (7,3%; p=0.31) in spring/summer; 62 (16.8%), 88 (23.8%), and 63 (17%) in winter and 28 (9.9%), 40 (14.1%), and 36 (12.7%) in spring/summer were admitted in ICU (p=0.01), used CPAP/NIV (p=0.002) and died (p=0.13), respectively. Hospitalization days were 14.5±11.6 in winter and 10.3±8.84 in spring/summer (p=0.001), while minimum PaO2/FiO2, measured during hospital stays was 123.2±38.6 in spring/summer and 112.6±40.8 in winter (p=0.054). Multivariate analysis (adjusted for all confounding factors) also confirmed reduced risks of having ICU admissions (0.53; 95%CI 0.32;0.88; p=0.01) and of using CPAP/NIV (0.48; 95%CI 0.32;0.75; p=0.001) in spring/summer when compared to winter. Hospitalization days and minimum PaO2/FiO2 were also lower in spring/summer (β= -3.9; 95%CI -5.5;-2.2; p=0.001) and winter (β= -17; 95%CI -0.93;35; p=0.06), respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio of mortality in winter, obtained with a Cox model, was higher of about 38% compared to spring/summer. No Ct values (viral load) differences were found either in winter (19.45±6.18) or spring/summer (20.3±6.7; p=0.343). IL-6, ferritin, procalcitonin, D-dimer were similar. Conversely, CRP was lower whereas vitamin D was higher in the warmer seasons. COVID-19 may be less severe during spring/summer in hospitalized patients. This does not seem to be influenced by different SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the different periods considered. C-reactive protein was found to be lower whereas vitamin D higher in the warmer months. It can be hypothesized that higher levels of vitamin D in spring/summer, compared to winter, may be associated to a positive modulation of COVID-19 induced inflammation with a possible disease severity reduction during spring/summer.

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The EASY-NET research programme: background, structure, and methodology

This is the first contribution of a series of interventions describing the EASY-NET research program (Bando Ricerca Finalizzata 2016, funds 2014-2015; NET-2016-02364191). Here, the objective is to illustrate the background and the research question, the structure and organization, the methodologies and the expected results of the programme. The main theme is audit&feedback (A&F), a proven and widespread technique for improving the quality of health care. EASY-NET, funded by the Italian Ministry of Health and by the governments of the participating Italian Regions, starts its research activities in 2019 with the aim of evaluating the effectiveness of A&F in improving care for different clinical conditions in various organizational and legislative contexts. The research network involves seven Italian Regions, each conducting specific research activities described by as many work packages (WP): Lazio (the leading Region, coordinator of the research activities), Friuli Venezia Giulia, Piedmont, Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Calabria, and Sicily. The involved clinical areas include the management of chronic diseases, emergency care for acute conditions, surgery in the oncological area, the treatment of heart disease, obstetrics, and the use of caesarean section and post-acute rehabilitation. The involved settings concern the community, the hospital, the emergency room, and the rehabilitation facilities. Different experimental or quasi-experimental study designs are applied in each WP to achieve specific objectives of the specific clinical and organizational context. In all WPs, the process and outcome indicators are calculated on the basis of the Health Information Systems (HIS) and, in some cases, they are integrated with measures obtained from ad hoc data collections. The programme aims to contribute to the scientific evidence on A&F also exploring the obstacles and favourable factors for its effectiveness and to promote its implementation in the health service, with the ultimate aim of improving the access to healthcare and the health outcomes for citizens.

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Analysing the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy through the Reed-Frost model: A methodology to delimit epidemic waves over time.

to set out a method based on the Reed Frost model to delimit over time COVID-19 epidemic waves in Italy. the available national epidemic reports published by the Protezione Civile (Italian civil defence) from 24.02.2020 to 16.022022 were used to collect data on COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. Then, the Reed-Frost model was applied to develop a methodology based on the calculation of the effective contact probability, i.e., the probability of contact. in Italy, a daily report related to the epidemic was immediately available, including main epidemiological data (point and periodic infection prevalence, mortality, etc), which made it possible for researchers from different institutions to perform analyses about the epidemic. an iterative methodology was developed resulting in the identification of the start-of-wave, end-of-wave, and inter-wave periods and of the starting and ending days of the COVID-19 epidemic waves in Italy (first wave: from 26±2 February 2020 to 28±2 June 2020). this study led to the development of an accessible and reproducible method to determine the start-of-wave and end-of-wave dates of an epidemic, starting only from the number of cases and susceptible people. The main implications of the method mainly consist in allowing benchmarking and forecasting analyses of the epidemic trend to be carried out to support policy and decision-making processes.

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Inclusion of vaccination into clinical pathways for COPD and asthma: current challenges and future perspectives in Italy

to describe the importance given to vaccination as a preventive measure in the clinical pathways (CPWs) of patients affected by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma in the Italian regional healthcare services. a comparative analysis was conducted to assess the presence/absence of vaccination recommendations among the available regional CPWs for the management of COPD and asthma. all the regional CPWs for COPD and asthma available in the "Fondazione ReS" database between 2008 and 2019 have been analysed. the role attributed to vaccination was assessed in terms of type of recommended vaccinations, management step indicated for administration, vaccination schedules, healthcare professionals involved in the vaccination pathway, potential contraindications, use of indicators for the monitoring of the offer. thirteen CPWs for COPD and only 3 for asthma were published between 2008 and 2019. Twelve of the CPWs for COPD included recommendation for influenza vaccination, 11 of which including also pneumococcal vaccination. The most recent CPW also contained recommendations for measles-mumps-rubella, varicella, Herpes Zoster, and tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccinations. Two of the CPWs related to asthma in adults recommended influenza vaccination. All CPWs provided for the vaccination recommendations during the patient follow-up step. Italian CPWs still pay little attention to the topic of vaccinations in patients with COPD and asthma. CPWs are required to be updated in the future being compliant with the national immunization schedule recommendations.

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SENTIERI Project: air pollution and health impact of population living in industrial areas in Italy

to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and PM10 in the Italian industrial areas included in the SENTIERI project characterized by industrial plants with combustion processes deriving from point emissions. using satellite data, the Population Weighted Exposure (PWE) to PM2.5 and PM10 for 2011 and 2015 was estimated. The concentration-response functions available were used to estimate the number of premature deaths attributable to exposure to industrial emissions. The counterfactual levels recommended by the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines were used. for the selection of industrial plants, the European database on emissions of the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register was used. Residents in areas of 1 km x 1 km and 4 km x 4 km around the selected industrial plants were considered. the number of premature deaths from non-accidental causes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and lung cancer was estimated. residents were exposed to PM2.5 values of 17.3 µg/m3 (Northern Italy: 23.3) and to 24.3 µg/m3 (Northern Italy: 30.3) of PM10. PWE for both pollutants tends to increase as the size of the area under study is reduced and it is generally higher everywhere in 2011 than in 2015, with values that are always higher than the average (overall) in the Norther Italy. In 2011, 1,709 (IC95% 1,309-1,903) and 1,611 (IC95% 1,225-2,353) non accidental premature deaths were estimated attributable to PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, in residents close to the industrial plants (1 km x 1 km). Deaths attributable to exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 tend to follow a North-Central-South&Islands gradient for all observed causes and for both years of analysis. although exposure assessment of the population by using random-forest model does not allow to disentangle the contribution of the industrial component, the results of the study are suggestive of an impact on health from PM exposure in the industrial areas considered, with a greater impact in the vicinity of the plants, recommending the implementation of urgent impact reduction actions.

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The concept map of SENTIERI Project: a communication interactive digital tool of the national epidemiological surveillance system of Italian contaminated sites

This paper describes the development and the envisioned use of concept maps in the framework of the SENTIERI communication strategies as an information and scientific communication tool applied to epidemiological surveillance in contaminated sites. The concept map of SENTIERI 2019-2022 was designed and implemented to foster access to complex scientific information ensuring usability of the contents and communication with the various stakeholders. The concept map aims to promote environmental health literacy in contaminated sites. The methodology adopted to create the map includes the following phases: 1. choice of a dynamic focus question; 2. selection of the representative terms of the addressed topics; 3. elaboration of the glossary of the selected terms; 4. representation of the links among the selected terms; 5. identification of the significant propositions that make explicit the meaning of each link. Online access to the map is guaranteed by the Mindomo software. The use of the concept map promotes active learning of the topics that characterize SENTIERI 2019-2022 through knowledge paths chosen because of the specific interests and learning purposes. The concept map derives from the integration of specific approaches of the epidemiological discipline with those of the social sciences and offers the possibility of developing site-specific maps through the interactions with local actors and the integration of elements related to emerging problems as well as institutional and local interests.

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