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The effects of taxation on the individual consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages.

To assess the impact of taxation on the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) most economic studies using household data consider the average consumer. Individual consumption is, however, very heterogeneous. In this paper, we propose a three-step methodology to evaluate the impact of SSB taxation on individual consumption. First, we use a disaggregation method to recover individual consumption from observed household consumption. Second, we estimate the demand for different categories of households. Finally, we simulate the impact of a tax policy on individual consumption. We find a high level of heterogeneity in consumption. Adults, both men and women, consume a greater quantity of SSBs than children. More importantly, for any given age category, the average consumption of SSBs increases with body mass index (BMI). Among heavy consumers of SSBs, obese and overweight people are over-represented. In France, a €0.20/l tax on SSBs might decrease sugar intake by more than 2 kg per year on average and by more than 5 kg, roughly 3 teaspoons/day, for 5% of the adult population. Moreover, overweight and obese men and women, who correspond to 41% of the adult population, represent 56% of the last five percentiles of the distribution of the variation in sugar intake. This is a key result because the objective of taxation is to decrease the consumption of individuals who are more at risk, that is those who are overweight and obese. We also show that classical method of the assessment of tax policies based on per-capita consumption underestimate the effect of the tax for obese adults by 9%. Finally, we estimate that a €0.20/l tax on SSBs might avoid about 640 deaths (about 1.6% of the considered diseases) as a consequence of the decrease in SSB consumption.

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Seasonal patterns in newborns' health: Quantifying the roles of climate, communicable disease, economic and social factors.

Poor health at birth can have long-term consequences for children's development. This paper analyses an important factor associated with health at birth: the time of year that the baby is born, and hence seasonal risks they were exposed to in utero. There are multiple potential explanations for seasonality in newborns' health. Most previous research has examined these in isolation. We therefore do not know which explanations are most important - and hence which policy interventions would most effectively reduce the resulting early-life inequalities. In this paper, I use administrative data to estimate and compare the magnitudes of several seasonal risks, seeking to identify the most important drivers of seasonality in the Northern Territory of Australia, a large territory spanning tropical and arid climates and where newborn health varies dramatically with the seasons. I find that the most important explanations are heat exposure and disease prevalence. Seasonality in food prices and road accessibility have smaller effects on some outcomes. Seasonal fertility patterns, rainfall and humidity do not have statistically significant effects. I conclude that interventions that protect pregnant women from seasonal disease and heat exposure would likely improve newborn health in the Northern Territory, with potential long-term benefits for child development. It is likely that similar impacts would apply in other locations with tropical and arid climates, and that, without action, climate change will accentuate these risks.

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Valuing mortality attributable to present and future temperature extremes in Argentina.

This study analyzes the weather-related health damage of present and future extreme temperatures in Argentina. Focusing on mortality, short-term impacts of temperature are obtained by regressing monthly mortality rates on inter-annual monthly weather variability. For this purpose, a countrywide panel dataset at the municipal level was constructed from the universe of deaths between 2010 and 2019, and daily meteorological records from the ERA5 weather dataset. Then, NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) are used to project future mortality by 2085 under two climate scenarios. Finally, present and future mortality-related economic damages are assessed using the Value of a Statistical Life. The results show that one additional day of extreme temperatures increase all-cause mortality rates relative to mild weather and that the impact of hotter-than-average temperatures is greater in magnitude than that of colder ones. Substantial heterogeneity exists between causes of death and age groups, with older people facing greater risks, while the results for gender are inconclusive. All days of extreme cold in a year generate damage equivalent to 0.64% of GDP, while heat damage is 0.11% of GDP. The total damage by extreme temperatures adds up to 0.75% of the 2019 GDP. When future temperatures are valued, the total damage increases by an additional 1.45% under scenario RCP8.5 because the lower mortality occurring on cold days only partially offsets the increase in the number of hot days. On the contrary, if temperature changes were to be mild (i.e., under scenario RCP4.5), overall mortality would be lower at the national level and the corresponding damages would decrease by 0.02%.

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