Synopsis The research problem We explored whether forward-looking statements in Chinese firms’ annual reports help reduce financing constraints and examined differences in this effect between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). Motivation or theoretical reasoning The motivation arises from the high information asymmetry in China’s capital market, where retail investors dominate, and firm-specific information remains limited. Prior literature suggested that forward-looking disclosures can offer incremental insights, potentially helping to bridge information gaps. With recent improvements in management discussion and analysis (MD&A) disclosure requirements in China, these disclosures have the potential to reduce financing constraints by addressing information asymmetry; however, they may also invite skepticism when viewed as managerial “cheap talk,” limiting their credibility and effectiveness. The test hypotheses Building upon incremental information theory and impression management theory, we proposed that forward-looking statements in the annual report are not associated with the level of financing constraint. Adopted methodology Our adopted methodology employed natural language processing (NLP) and word-embedding techniques to identify and quantify forward-looking information within MD&A sections. We utilized ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and propensity score matching (PSM) methods to examine the relationship between forward-looking statements and financing constraints. Findings Our findings suggest that forward-looking statements in firms’ MD&A sections are negatively associated with financing constraints, underscoring the incremental role of such disclosures in reducing information asymmetry. This relationship is particularly significant for non-SOEs, which tend to face greater financial challenges due to their limited access to informal financing channels compared to SOEs. Additionally, our results reveal that higher readability and a positive tone in annual reports enhance the effectiveness of forward-looking statements in reducing financing constraints, highlighting the importance of clarity and tone in shaping stakeholders’ perceptions and financial decisions. These insights underscore the strategic value of transparent and well-articulated forward-looking statements, particularly for non-SOEs aiming to enhance their access to external financing in China’s unique capital market.
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