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Identifying Impacts of Contact Tracing on Epidemiological Inference from Phylogenetic Data.

Robust sampling methods are foundational to inferences using phylogenies. Yet the impact of using contact tracing, a type of non-uniform sampling used in public health applications such as infectious disease outbreak investigations, has not been investigated in the molecular epidemiology field. To understand how contact tracing influences a recovered phylogeny, we developed a new simulation tool called SEEPS (Sequence Evolution and Epidemiological Process Simulator) that allows for the simulation of contact tracing and the resulting transmission tree, pathogen phylogeny, and corresponding virus genetic sequences. Importantly, SEEPS takes within-host evolution into account when generating pathogen phylogenies and sequences from transmission histories. Using SEEPS, we demonstrate that contact tracing can significantly impact the structure of the resulting tree, as described by popular tree statistics. Contact tracing generates phylogenies that are less balanced than the underlying transmission process, less representative of the larger epidemiological process, and affects the internal/external branch length ratios that characterize specific epidemiological scenarios. We also examined real data from a 2007-2008 Swedish HIV-1 outbreak and the broader 1998-2010 European HIV-1 epidemic to highlight the differences in contact tracing and expected phylogenies. Aided by SEEPS, we show that the data collection of the Swedish outbreak was strongly influenced by contact tracing even after downsampling, while the broader European Union epidemic showed little evidence of universal contact tracing, agreeing with the known epidemiological information about sampling and spread. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including possible non-uniform sampling schemes when examining phylogenetic trees. For that, SEEPS serves as a useful tool to evaluate such impacts, thereby facilitating better phylogenetic inferences of the characteristics of a disease outbreak. SEEPS is available at github.com/MolEvolEpid/SEEPS.

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Novel cyclic homogeneous oscillation detection method for high accuracy and specific characterization of neural dynamics.

Determining the presence and frequency of neural oscillations is essential to understanding dynamic brain function. Traditional methods that detect peaks over 1/f noise within the power spectrum fail to distinguish between the fundamental frequency and harmonics of often highly non-sinusoidal neural oscillations. To overcome this limitation, we define fundamental criteria that characterize neural oscillations and introduce the cyclic homogeneous oscillation (CHO) detection method. We implemented these criteria based on an autocorrelation approach to determine an oscillation's fundamental frequency. We evaluated CHO by verifying its performance on simulated non-sinusoidal oscillatory bursts and validated its ability to determine the fundamental frequency of neural oscillations in electrocorticographic (ECoG), electroencephalographic (EEG), and stereoelectroencephalographic (SEEG) signals recorded from 27 human subjects. Our results demonstrate that CHO outperforms conventional techniques in accurately detecting oscillations. In summary, CHO demonstrates high precision and specificity in detecting neural oscillations in time and frequency domains. The method's specificity enables the detailed study of non-sinusoidal characteristics of oscillations, such as the degree of asymmetry and waveform of an oscillation. Furthermore, CHO can be applied to identify how neural oscillations govern interactions throughout the brain and to determine oscillatory biomarkers that index abnormal brain function.

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Symptom Outcomes of Celiac Disease in Those on a Gluten-free Diet.

We aimed to evaluate symptom outcomes in those on a gluten-free diet during the 5 years after diagnosis. Celiac disease is common; however, little is known about long-term symptom outcomes. We performed a retrospective chart review on individuals with celiac disease followed at a tertiary referral center between 2012 and 2018. To minimize bias, strict inclusion/exclusion criteria were utilized. Only those with definitive biopsy-proven celiac disease, on a gluten-free diet, and with systematic follow-up were included. The standardized care at this center reduced the risk that decisions on testing and follow-up visits were determined by symptom status. Summary statistics were computed and generalized linear models with a logit link were used to associate the proportion of symptomatic visits with various covariates using R statistical programming. Of the 1023 records reviewed, 212 met inclusion/exclusion criteria; 146 (69%) were female and the mean age at diagnosis was 43 (range: 11 to 84y old). During follow-up, over 50% remained symptomatic, with many having the same symptoms that prompted the diagnosis. The only predictors for remaining symptomatic were female sex and younger age at diagnosis. Abnormal serology during follow-up and small bowel normalization were not predictive. In individuals with definitive celiac disease with systematic long-term follow-up in a Celiac Clinic, roughly half remained symptomatic despite a gluten-free diet. Many suffer from the same symptoms that prompted the diagnosis of celiac disease. Small bowel healing and abnormal serology in follow-up were not predictive of remaining symptomatic. These findings stress the importance of long-term care in celiac disease.

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Disentangling the relationship between cancer mortality and COVID-19 in the US

Cancer is considered a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality, yet several countries have reported that deaths with a primary code of cancer remained within historic levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we further elucidate the relationship between cancer mortality and COVID-19 on a population level in the US. We compared pandemic-related mortality patterns from underlying and multiple cause (MC) death data for six types of cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s. Any pandemic-related changes in coding practices should be eliminated by study of MC data. Nationally in 2020, MC cancer mortality rose by only 3% over a pre-pandemic baseline, corresponding to ~13,600 excess deaths. Mortality elevation was measurably higher for less deadly cancers (breast, colorectal, and hematological, 2–7%) than cancers with a poor survival rate (lung and pancreatic, 0–1%). In comparison, there was substantial elevation in MC deaths from diabetes (37%) and Alzheimer’s (19%). To understand these differences, we simulated the expected excess mortality for each condition using COVID-19 attack rates, life expectancy, population size, and mean age of individuals living with each condition. We find that the observed mortality differences are primarily explained by differences in life expectancy, with the risk of death from deadly cancers outcompeting the risk of death from COVID-19.

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