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A Comparative Study of Demand Forecasting for Aftermarket Parts in Heavy Equipment Industry (PT XYZ Case Study)

The global economic crisis has reached the world today, forcing many customers to become more cost aware in their search for better quality and service, and forcing corporate organizations to discover more effective and efficient ways to compete among them. The main objective of this research is to choose the best forecasting method to predict the demandfor spare parts at PT. XYZ highly fluctuating, and to avoid or minimize stockouts. The demand for high-priced spare partsand capital goods is considered discontinuous if it is random and contributes a large part of the inventory value. Fluctuating demand for goods will be difficult to predict, and inaccurate estimates can cause huge losses for the company due to obsolescence of spare parts or unfulfilled demand for spare parts. Running a successful company operation today requires organizational strength to supply the needs of its customers. This study discusses the appropriate demand forecasting method for the fluctuation demand for spare parts products at an Indonesian companynamed PT. XYZ. This study compares four forecasting methods to predict the demand for spare parts at PT. XYZ is the ABCAnalysis, the Moving Average, the Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) with TrendAdjustment. This study uses demand data for 2017-2020 to forecast demand in 2021 and uses the optimum alpha value of0.4065 for SES which is obtained by calculating using MS Excel Solver and uses alpha value of 0.5 and beta value 0.3 for ES with Trend Adjustment. The performance of this forecasting method is determined based on the smallest mean absolute percentage error and the level of forecasting accuracy (tracking signal) which is close to zero, and the results of this study indicate that the use of the Exponential Smoothing with trend adjustment method has the best performance compared to the other three methods.
 

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Entrepreneurial Leadership, Entrepreneurial Orientation, Organizational Effectiveness and Their Relationships Towards Firm Performance

This study is a cross-sectional descriptive & confimatory study that analyzes the Indonesian heavy equipment industry. Therefore, the results only represent the condition of the industry at a certain point in time the research was conducted, unlike longitudinal data. Another implication is that this research cannot determine causality between constructs and can only represent the current condition.
 The construct that the author measures is entrepreneurial leadership (EL), entrepreneurial orientation (EO), organizational effectiveness (OE) and Firm performance (FP).
 FP is a relevant construct in strategic management research and is often used as the dependent variable. Despite this relevance, there is almost no consensus on its definition, dimensions and measurement, what is limiting progress in research and understanding of the concept.
 Successful FP operating in dynamic and changing environments have the ability to reach out and explore new sights. When the current conditions for new employee recruitment have been reduced, even every year there are no additional new employees, expenses, optimization & additional work jobs for each employee, etc. Possibly with this, I as the author would like to examine current in the company whether they have EL, EO, OE to improve FP, where employees understand and apply how Risks of risk and uncertainty as well as being proactive in maintaining the company's growth, so that the company can survive in a dynamic business situation. And for this study the author also wants to clarify that EL, EO, OE and FP are their have relationship have a positive effect for each others.

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Analyzing Technical Competency, Relational Capabilities and Cognitive Abilities on Customer Satisfaction at Distributor Companies in Indonesia

In the current era of globalization, business competition is getting tougher and as a market leader, companies must always maintain their performance and improve their performance, so that customer satisfaction is always maintained. Especially the performance of mechanical services to customers whose performance must be maintained. Main problem faced by PT United Tractors heavy equipment service division is a decrease in customer satisfaction. The decrease in satisfaction is thought to be caused by a decrease in mechanics technical competence, the lack of mechanical ability to maintain good relationships (relational capability) with customers and the ability to identify problems (cognitive abilities) faced by customers. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of technical competency, relational capability and cognitive ability toward customer satisfaction and to analyse the impact of customer satisfaction toward customer loyalty. As a quantitative research, the study distributed questionnaires to 200 respondents who are customers who used mechanics services, so that it can be seen what variables have a significant impact on customer satisfaction. The findings of this study are that cognitive ability and technical competency have a significant impact on customer satisfaction, while relational capability has no significant impact on customer satisfaction. The influence of customer satisfaction on customer loyalty has a significant impact.

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