Did Albert Pike predict three world wars?

The concept of coming to terms with the past originated in post-1945 West Germany but such historical therapy is evident in all the belligerent countries. In that process, the two world wars are intricately connected, each seen refractively through the prism of the other. This article focuses on Britain whose national obsession with the two world wars is particularly acute. The first and second sections suggest that British public discourse has been able to construct a satisfying narrative of 1939–45 but not of 1914–18, meaning a narrative that has both a clear beginning, middle, and end and also a stark moral meaning. Viable narratives draw on the events themselves, the words used to conceptualize them, and the interpretations of 'instant' histories and memoirs. The third section argues that the elevation of 1939–45 in national discourse as our ‘finest hour’ (Churchill) has aggravated the problematic nature of 1914–18 for the British. In the wake of Brexit, the last section argues that Britain – unlike France and Germany – has found it difficult to move on from the era of the two world wars by locating these conflicts in a more positive narrative of the twentieth century as the eventual triumph of European integration.

In the context of growing global political tension and introduction of world trade barriers, the urgent task is to develop new tools for assessing their consequences. In the paper we present the agent-based model of trade wars, considering organizations, states and residents generated using initial statistical data. Simulation determines changes in output and supplies of organizations under trade restrictions. Results of calculations on the developed model and comparison of various model complexes forecasts with real consequences of trade wars between the USA and China in 2018 and Western countries against Russia in 2022 are presented. Within calculations four scenarios were considered: (1) baseline, (2) new restrictions between China and the USA, (3) more serious sanctions against China and Russia by the USA and the EU, (4) a global trade war. In the second scenario deviation GDP of the USA and China from the baseline scenario does not exceed 0.5%. In the third scenario, the range of countries involved is expanding, and the fall in GDP in them is expected at the level of 0.7-1%. In the fourth scenario, the entire world economy experiences a serious slowdown, and the EU are facing the most severe consequences, going into recession.

This essay addresses the research question of the role nationalism played in the two 20th-century world wars, which resulted in the deadliest conflicts in human history. The essay employs scholarly reports and war documentaries to shed light on the influence of nationalism in these wars. The conclusion drawn from this research is that nationalism indeed played a significant role in both world wars, with a more crucial impact on World War I and a vital yet distinct role in making World War II the bloodiest war in history. This research serves as a compelling reminder of the need to grasp the complexities of nationalism, recognize its potential for devastating outcomes, and promote open discourse on this critical topic.

It is still unknown whether there is some deep structure to modern wars and terrorist campaigns that could, for example, enable reliable prediction of future patterns of violent events. Recent war research focuses on size distributions of violent events, with size defined by the number of people killed in each event. Event size distributions within previously available datasets, for both armed conflicts and for global terrorism as a whole, exhibit extraordinary regularities that transcend specifics of time and place. These distributions have been well modelled by a narrow range of power laws that are, in turn, supported by some theories of violent group dynamics. We show that the predicted event-size patterns emerge broadly in a mass of new event data covering all conflicts in the world from 1989 to 2016. Moreover, there are similar regularities in the events generated by individual terrorist organizations, 1998—2016. The existence of such robust empirical patterns hints at the predictability of size distributions of violent events in future wars. We pursue this prospect using split-sample techniques that help us to make useful out-of-sample predictions. Power-law-based prediction systems outperform lognormal-based systems. We conclude that there is indeed evidence from the existing data that fundamental patterns do exist, and that these can allow prediction of size distribution of events in modern wars and terrorist campaigns.

The following paper deals with methodological features of studying of empires legacy role in policy of the leading powers in the countries of the third world through a prism of asymmetric conflicts historical modeling. The author pays special attention to the role of Great Britain and the USA foreign policy course defining after World War II during Cold War in the second half of the 20th century and Global War on Terror at the beginning of the 21st century. The author pays attention to methodological traps (such as the probability of the research problem on the given variable and terminological confusion) as well as to research opportunities which are opened by such approach in the field of the historical and political analysis (for example, evolution of the international relations theory and practice in the conditions of the world order transformation after World War II). Special attention is given to the value of such methodological reception as asymmetric conflicts historical modeling in expert estimates of the leading powers foreign policy. The paper also deals with the role of expert community and academic expertize as an important component of that analytical operation which is carried out within historical simulation of the asymmetrical conflicts.

Throughout the history of warfare, military leaders have recognized the potentially devastating consequences of ailing armies. Outbreaks of disease among the ranks have contributed to the collapse of empires and the falls of dynasties. Even today, we are just one mutation away from catastrophic consequences that would literally reshape the world as we know it. While it is true that the World Wars underscore the capacity of armed conflict among world powers to spread disease on a global scale, they also highlight the medical advances that often accompany modern warfare. Herein, we reflect upon the role of the World Wars in establishing a trajectory for modern medicine and posit an organizational role for our armed forces as a platform of cooperation in global public health.

The article presents an analytical review of the global trends in terms of futurology. The main attention is paid to the global problems of world’s development which were researched by Rome club, US National Intelligence Council, and Research Office of European Parliament. Address to the problems of future was caused by the global transformations that brought up the new threats to the world. In the base of the transformations are strategic instability, and possibility of conversion of the military conflicts into full-scale wars. On the one hand, a number of global problems, particular critical growth of anthropogenic impact on ecology of the planet, total fight for its resources, demography crisis, proliferation of nuclear weapons, international conflicts, and hybrid wars, cast doubts on the idea of «unlimited development» of the world community. On the other hand, the contradictive dynamic of world’s development, and the deterioration of relations between «major powers» became continual phenomena. The contemporary futurological researches of the global trends don’t bring positive results which far away from optimism. Primarily it concerns of the futurological forecasts that have been made by the research structures and special institutions. Their forecasts to 2035 noted accelerated the tendency of technogenic influence on ecology system, natural resources of the planet, ultimate climate changes, crises processes in world economy, and danger of the military conflicts escalation. There is a question on the agenda whether mankind is ready to resist eff ectively these challenges and threats.

The need to build an awareness of peace and of peace education is often a message that is difficult to share with the larger society. John Dewey, an acclaimed American philosopher and intellectual, used his public platform to espouse his ideas on democracy and peace as a resolution to global discord during the years preceding and during World Wars I and II. Although Dewey did shift his perspective as global conflicts shattered his hope for world peace, he persevered in his missive of democracy and tolerance, especially through his writing and lectures. Dewey strongly believed that democratic societies are best suited to preserve peace and societal harmony. His reasoning was premised on his own understanding of democracy as a way of life, not as a political process. This paper examines Dewey's ideas on peace education and his influence during the interwar years as well as during World War II. It also discusses how his ideas have been applied to contemporary approaches to peace education as seen through the lens of present-day practitioners. Through these historical milestones, Dewey's philosophical support for peace education wavered when he faced the perpetual dilemma of what to do when the values of peace are in direct conflict with justice, decency, humanity, understanding, and cooperation. Yet, aspects of his ideas on how to teach peace—focused on building democratic communities—can still be seen in classrooms today.

Wars and armed conflicts have accompanied mankind from the beginning of history and belong to the category of social phenomena. They became a permanent part of the historical process and are changing with it. Throughout history, wars have changed, as have views on the phenomenon of war, on war theories and strategic concepts. These views were and are a derivative of the progress of civilization. Since the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, societies and nations have been the cause and target of wars to the larger extent than countries. Territory and power are no longer the primary causes and goals of armed conflicts. The analysis of these changes allows us to call these phenomena “new wars”. The article presents the issues of changes and transformations of wars and armed conflicts. It was stated that defining war as a political act was no longer sufficient. It was also established that in a changing world, new forms of war existed and would continue to emerge. The classic war, however, is not yet gone.

Propaganda is an activity that is conducted to influence the attitudes or behaviors of individuals by using communication tools. Throughout history, states have used different propaganda methods to influence their public and other states. Posters are one of the mass media tools used for propaganda purposes. States made propaganda during the World Wars, and often they used posters in this activity. Although there are studies focused on propaganda activities in World Wars, posters, and the importance of food policies, no study examining food-themed propaganda posters within the scope of the food policies. The purpose of the study is to examine the food-themed propaganda posters published during the two World Wars within the scope of the food policies. 43 food-themed posters were detected published during the World Wars for propaganda. The posters were analyzed through thematic analysis. As a result, it was determined that fourteen food policy themes were used in the posters of the world wars.