Zoonotic modeling for emerging avian influenza with antigenic variation and (M+1)–patch spatial human movements

Abstract

In this study, a multi-population zoonotic model was constructed to describe the transmission process of the avian influenza virus from natural reservoirs, to intermediate hosts, to humans in hot spots, and then to humans in other M areas. It is quantitatively analyzed the effect of antigenic variation in natural reservoirs and intermediate hosts on the spread of emerging avian influenza. Firstly, we proved that the existence of natural hosts and the slaughter of intermediate hosts do not change the basic reproduction number between humans. However, it would change the zoonotic reproduction number, which ensures the persistence of the disease but does not guarantee its outbreak. Secondly, avian influenza virus variation in animal hosts does not contribute to the basic reproduction number in the zoonotic model. However, it does enhance the incidence of the disease, which implies that we need to set more complex threshold conditions to control the disease rather than relying solely on the reproduction number calculation. Thirdly, we discussed the effect of traffic flow on the epidemic expansion. It is proved that significant traffic flows could amplify the prevalence rapidly during disease outbreaks. In order to better present the epidemic status of emerging diseases at the early stage, this study also simulated the impact of medical inadequacy.