YRisk-COVID a Risk Warning and Management Application to Address Individual risks of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Abstract

In this paper we put forward the need to build a risk taxonomy and a simply digestible risk score to highlight areas of COVID-19 infection risk for individuals as part of their typical daily activities. The taxonomy will cover the areas people live, work (study), travel and socialise to enhance the views of infection rates in specific but very common environments. This taxonomy will allow users, via a proposed application (named YRisk- COVID), to assess their own individual risks, their household and work place risk. The taxonomy will include factors such as regional levels of infection, local population density where an individual lives, their work place (or school) and their typical travel methods. The further collection of data will enable refinements of the taxonomy and identification of other risk factors and model improvements. The result will provide a near real time view of risks to individuals. The model has been built based on the latest infectivity research and uses data collected from UK government COVID-19 case data, as well as the data collected within the application. The model has been designed to improve individual's decision making of risks of COVID-19 infection and will provide users with the ability to compare the risks related to their daily activities. The data collected will be provided back to users and will lead to an opportunity for users to be able to relate to the regional risk of becoming infected. The application can provide the means for enhanced risk planning across regions, work or study locations, and for the individual. The data collected will provide not only advanced warning of risk, but can also be used to assess how the wider population responds to measures taken by regional and national governments. The application provides a unique means for individuals to self regulate their risks in conjunction with government guidelines.