Wrist circumference as a novel predictor of hypertension and cardiovascular disease: results of a decade follow up in a West Asian cohort

Abstract

No study has yet evaluated the effect of wrist circumference on risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an adult population. The present study included 3642 women, aged ≥30 years, free of CVD at baseline, who had undergone health examinations between January 1999 and 2001 and were followed up until March 2010. Cox proportional hazard regression was performed to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) of wrist circumference for CVD and hypertension events. During 10 years of follow–up, 284 cases of first CVD and 615 cases of incident hypertension occurred. In a model adjusted for conventional CVD risk factors, the HR of 1 cm increase in wrist circumference was 1.15 (1.06–1.25) for hypertension and was marginally significant for CVD (HR, 1.12 [1.00–1.25]; P-value 0.052). After considering body mass index and waist circumference in the model, we found significant interaction between waist circumference and wrist circumference in risk prediction of hypertension and CVD (P < .001). In non–centrally obese women (waist circumference <95 cm), in multivariable model plus body mass index and waist circumference, increase in wrist circumference was independently associated with both hypertension (HR, 1.17 [1.02–1.35]) and CVD (HR, 1.29 [1.03–1.61]). However, among centrally obese women (waist circumference ≥95 cm), wrist circumference increase could not predict either hypertension (HR, 0.97 [0.84–1.18]) or CVD events (HR, 0.90 [0.75–1.07]). Wrist circumference as a novel anthropometric measure was an independent predictor for incident hypertension and CVD events among non–centrally obese women.