World Population Trends, A Stocktaking

Abstract

The decelerating trend in world population growth rates that began -- both in developed and developing worlds -- between 1960 and 1965 has gained in strength. In the developed world fertility is at or below the replacement level in the majority of market economies while it has leveled off or risen somewhat in the socialist economies possibly due to the initial impact of pronatalist measures. Powerful social forces in market and socialist economies alike -- evidenced by rising incidence of divorce changing attitudes toward marriage lifestyles that are antithetical to economic crisis have produced fundamental changes in family structure. In the developing world there are troubling signs that the pace of mortality decline may be slowing while fertility decline only faintly foreshadowed a dozen years ago has spread to a large number of countries including some of the largest. Internal migration and urbanization loom large as the subject of government concern. Looking to the future a stationary world population of about 11 billion is likely to be attained by the 3rd quarter of the next century. Close to 9/10s of this population will reside in what is todays developing world. But the demographic future is far from predetermined; the course of demographic trends between now and the year 2000 and the success of government interventions to influence these trends will be major factors affecting the course of growth far into the next century. (Authors)