Working memory dynamics bias the generation of beliefs: The influence of data presentation rate on hypothesis generation

Abstract

Although temporal dynamics are inherent aspects of diagnostic tasks, few studies have investigated how various aspects of time course influence hypothesis generation. An experiment is reported that demonstrates that working memory dynamics operating during serial data acquisition bias hypothesis generation. The presentation rate (and order) of a sequence of serially presented symptoms was manipulated to be either fast (180 ms per symptom) or slow (1,500 ms per symptom) in a simulated medical diagnosis task. When the presentation rate was slow, participants chose the disease hypothesis consistent with the symptoms appearing later in the sequence. When the presentation rate was fast, however, participants chose the disease hypothesis consistent with the symptoms appearing earlier in the sequence, therefore representing a novel primacy effect. We predicted and account for this effect through competitive working memory dynamics governing information acquisition and the contribution of maintained information to the retrieval of hypotheses from long-term memory.