Workforce forecasting for state transportation agencies: A machine learning approach

Abstract

A decline in the number of construction engineers and inspectors at State Transportation Agencies (STAs) to manage the ever-increasing lane miles has emphasized the importance of workforce planning in these agencies. Forecasting workforce requirements is crucial for effective planning in any industry or agency. This study developed machine learning models to estimate the person-hour requirements of STAs at the project level. The Arkansas Department of Transportation (ARDOT) was used as a case study, using its employee and project details data between 2012 and 2021. Machine learning regression models ranging from linear, tree ensembles, kernel-based, and neural network-based models were developed. These models were compared based on the accuracy of their predictions, the time taken for training the models and their prediction time. Predictions were tested based on the K-fold cross validation technique. The results indicated a high performance from the random forest regression model, a tree ensemble with bagging, which recorded a mean R-squared value of 0.91. Other machine learning models such as an ensemble neural networks model and the linear models also proved to be fit for the problem, attaining R squared value as high as 0.80 and 0.78 respectively. These findings underscore the capability of machine learning models to provide more accurate workforce demand forecasts for STAs and the construction industry. This enhanced accuracy in workforce planning will contribute to improved resource allocation and management.