Abstract
In many countries, wintertime cold weather is linked to ill-health and intense pressure on public health services. This study examines how both long-term climate change and sub-seasonal variability contribute to the temperature extremes that increase pressures on the UK's National Health Service. The impact of temperature on fractional mortality and hospital admissions due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are used as metrics of wintertime pressure on the health system. The focus of the study is on days during the year in which the fractional mortality and hospital admissions attributable to cold weather exceed the five-year return period. These days are henceforth called winter pressure days since they likely to lead to significant pressure on the health service to meet demand. On interdecadal and longer timescales, winter pressure days show a robust decline over recent decades with a reduction from a probability of 0.29 in the pre-industrial period to 0.11 for the period 2000–2016. Comparing the risk of winter pressure days in two different climate model simulations of the historical period and a counterfactual ensemble of only natural climate forcings shows that this decline can be clearly attributed to anthropogenic activity. The average Fraction of Attributable risk due to anthropogenic activity for these two climate models for winter pressure days is −0.94. On sub-seasonal timescales, weather drivers of winter pressure days are assessed through analysis of diagnostics of weather regime lifecycles. This analysis shows winter pressure days occur almost exclusively in the Greenland Blocking regime. Although the risk of winter pressure days is likely to continue to decline with current climate trends, there remains a substantial weather driven risk to the UK health system. Preparing for weather events that cause stress on the system should focus on the analysis and prediction of the Greenland Blocking regime on weekly timescales.
Highlights
Introduction and motivationCold weather in the UK and in other countries is associated with increases in mortality from a range of primarily cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, as reviewed comprehensively in Hajat (2017)
The resulting estimate i is the fraction of all cause mortality or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) hospital admissions that can be attributed to cold weather for that particular day, assuming the same population vulnerability as in Hajat et al (2016)
Estimates of the annual maximum of fractional daily mortality and hospital admissions derived from the unadjusted, TCET time series since 1850 are shown in the top two panels of Fig. 1
Summary
Cold weather in the UK and in other countries is associated with increases in mortality from a range of primarily cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, as reviewed comprehensively in Hajat (2017). Long-term projections of the impacts of the changing climate on total cold related mortality Hajat et al (2014) suggest only small changes by 2050, despite long-term anthropogenically driven increases in temperature and a concomitant decrease in cold conditions in the UK. In contrast to the NAO, weather regimes describe the full-range of multi-day variability of weather in the European region By comparing both long-term climate and short-term meteorological drivers of winter pressure days using the same underlying framework, it is possible to understand the extent to which long-term planning (e.g. Public Health England, 2017) needs to account for each component of climate system variability
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