Will Driverless Vehicle Adoption Cause More Urban Sprawl or Prevent It?

Abstract

Driverless vehicles (DVs) will attain substantial traction in the next 10-20 years and will affect commuting patterns and demand for parking. We study the potential correlation between DV adoption and urban sprawl. There are two primary and counteracting effects: DVs may induce more sprawl by providing a desirable commute from the suburbs; or, DVs may lessen urban sprawl by inducing the redevelopment of underutilized urban parking, thus revitalizing commercial areas. We develop sprawl indicators, and rank 15 representative U.S. metro areas. The factors include commuting time, population growth, existing urban density, state government regulation of DVs, urban walkability score, existing sprawl, and presence of parking spaces. We then rank the same metro areas on likely DV adoption. We adopt CoStar 20-year growth forecasts, assume localized FARs, and score each metro’s ability to satisfy development land with redundant parking. We conclude that Detroit, San Diego, Houston, Pittsburgh, and Sacramento would have the easiest economic path to controlling and reversing urban sprawl, while Raleigh, Washington, D.C., Boston, Phoenix, and Portland would have the hardest path under the assumed growth conditions. Central cities need to prepare metro-wide parking redevelopment infill policies or face the prospect of continued sprawl.