Abstract
The dismal performance of professional economic forecasters to foresee the financial crisis has raised serious questions as to the credibility of modern economics. Several efforts have been made to account for this failure. The paper offers a tentative answer based on the lessons that may be drawn from the wisdom of a short list of past and present economists: Hayek (§1), Neville Keynes (§2), Mankiw, Tinbergen, Maynard Keynes and Lucas (§4). The glue to keep such an odd bunch together is provided by science historian Ted Porter (§3). A natural science field that recently managed to survive a similar credibility crisis offers a success story to imitate (§5). Not casually, it is a story that confirms the validity of Hayek’s pattern predictions argument.
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