“Why didn’t the sirens wail on the roofs?”: political framing competition in the German parliament following the 2021 floods

This study examines the effects of climate mitigation, climate change as quantifiable effects of additional extreme weather events, and adaptation investments on economic growth in Germany. First, on the basis of a comprehensive literature review and further considerations, important impact channels are discussed. Second, the macroeconometric national model PANTA RHEI is used to quantify the effects. To this end, scenarios are refined with and without additional climate change, and with and without additional climate protection to achieve national reduction targets until 2045, and defined for the first time with and without adaptation to climate change. This is also the first combination of all three climate dimensions within the model. The results show that, in the model, the quantifiable effects of extreme weather events have a negative impact on GDP that can be reduced by adaptation. By contrast, climate mitigation has a positive effect. As only monetary effects are accounted for, negative effects of climate change and positive impacts of climate policy are underestimated in broader terms. The model results help to understand the interaction between mitigation and adaptation: without mitigation, the impact of the climate crisis will increase significantly. Adaptation measures may then have less impact or even become ineffective.

Increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather conditions caused by climate change can have a negative impact on rail service performance and also increases total ownership costs. Research has shown that adverse weather conditions are responsible for 5 to 10 % of total failures and 60 % of delays on the railway infrastructure in Sweden. The impact of short-term and long-term effects of climate change and extreme weather events depends on the design characteristics of the railway assets, geographical location, operational profile, maturity of the climate adaptation, etc. These extreme events will have major consequences such as traffic disruption, accidents, and higher maintenance costs during the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the effects of climate change on the O&M phase requires a more comprehensive review of the previous studies reported from different parts of the world. The paper provides a state-of-the-art review of the effects of extreme weather events and their impacts on the operation and maintenance of railway infrastructure. This paper also provides a list of vulnerable railway assets that can have an impact due to extreme weather events.

Electricity is the backbone of the modern world. Yet, electricity access is beyond the reach of nearly one billion people worldwide. Therefore, electrification is a vital development objective. While the global power sector is expanding to meet the increasing electricity demand, global warming calls for its transformation towards a low-carbon version. Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to curbing carbon emissions, with the power sector being one of the primary targets for emissions reduction actions. At the same time, climate change is affecting the global economy, including the power sector. The extreme weather events are among the primary causes of power outages, which will likely intensify under the future climate. Gradual changes in climate variables also threaten the power supply’s reliability. The developing economies are further challenged to address this climate mitigation-adaptation paradox while satisfying their most pressing objective: electrification and rapid growth in energy demand. This dissertation addresses this societal challenge through a holistic consideration of both climate change mitigation and adaptation within the context of the growing Indonesian power sector. The dissertation employs a set of methodological steps, relying primarily on the use of the prominent sectoral electricity software model LEAP. Its water counterpart model WEAP is also used to assess climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower. Furthermore, the dissertation reports the results of Semi-Structured Interviews and Focus Group Discussions conducted with the power sector’s practitioners to investigate the effects of extreme weather events and gradual climate change on the power sector. This dissertation advances the current LEAP modeling practice by sequentially taking into consideration endogenous technological learning and climate change impacts and adaptation into the model simulations of long-term power system expansion. Results show that the implementation of the Indonesian renewable energy targets helps in achieving the country’s CO2 mitigation target, but entails higher total costs of electricity production. However, the fast technological learning of renewable technologies significantly reduces the overall costs. Furthermore, when the projected climate change impacts are integrated into simulations of the power system expansion, the power system adapts by installing extra capacity and producing more energy to balance the climate-driven surge in the electricity demand and to compensate for a reduced power-generating capacity of power plants under adverse impacts of the future climate.

Can exposure to extreme weather change political opinion and preferences about climate change? There is a growing literature on both the effects of extreme weather events and the factors explaining attitudes toward global warming, though there remains no clear consensus about whether being exposed to extreme weather influences public opinion about climate change. We contribute to this literature by studying the impact of a variety of extreme weather events associated with climate variability, including severe storms, floods, fires, and hurricanes, on attitudes toward climate change. Specifically, we use a three-wave panel survey and a dynamic difference-in-differences design to analyze public opinion data at the individual level in the US. We find that exposure to only one extreme weather type-fires-has a small but significant effect on acknowledging the existence of climate change and supporting the need for action. However, that impact quickly vanishes, and other types of extreme weather do not appear to have any effect on opinion.

Accurate pavement management systems are essential for states’ Department Of Transportation and roadway agencies to plan for cost-effective maintenance and repair (M and R) strategies. Pavement deterioration model is an imperative component of any pavement management system since the future budget and M and R plans would be developed based on the predicted pavement performance measures. It is crucial for the pavement deterioration models to consider the factors that significantly aggravate the pavement condition. While many studies have highlighted the impact of different environmental, load, and pavement’s structure on the life cycle of the pavement, effect of extreme weather events such as Floods and Snow Storms have often been overlooked. In this study, a pavement deterioration model is proposed which would consider the effect of traffic loads, climate conditions, and extreme weather events. Climate, load and performance data has been compiled for over twenty years and for eight states using the Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) databases. A stepwise regression approach is undertaken to quantify the effect of the extreme weather events, along with other influential factors on pavement performance in terms of International Roughness Index (IRI). Final results rendered more than 90% correlation with the quantified impact values of extreme weather events.

Successful alien plant invasion is influenced by both climate change and plant-plant interactions. We estimate the single and interactive effects of competition and extreme weather events on the performance of the global legume invader Lupinus polyphyllus (Lindl.). In three experimental studies we assessed (i) the stress tolerance of seedling and adult L.polyphyllus plants against extreme weather events (drought, fluctuating precipitation, late frost), (ii) the competitive effects of L.polyphyllus on native grassland species and vice versa, and (iii) the interactive effects of extreme weather events and competition on the performance of L.polyphyllus. Drought reduced growth and led to early senescence of L.polyphyllus but did not reduce adult survival. Fluctuating precipitation events and late frost reduced the length of inflorescences. Under control conditions, interspecific competition reduced photosynthetic activity and growth of L.polyphyllus. When subjected to competition during drought, L.polyphyllus conserved water while simultaneously maintaining high assimilation rates, demonstrating increased water use efficiency. Meanwhile, native species had reduced performance under drought. In summary, the invader gained an advantage under drought conditions through a smaller reduction in performance relative to its native competitors but was competitively inferior under control conditions. This provides evidence for a possible invasion window for this species. While regions of high elevation or latitude with regular severe late frost events might remain inaccessible for L.polyphyllus, further spread across Europe seems probable as the predicted increase in drought events may favour this non-native legume over native species.

Extreme weather events in europe and their health consequences - A systematic review.

Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, dynamic energy budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed, and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm levels were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

Water sprays from an open fire hydrant in Brooklyn, New York, in the midst of a July 2010 heat wave that affected much of the eastern United States.In 2007 the New York City Department of Environmental Protection first teamed up with Alianza Dominicana, a Washington Heights community organization, to educate city residents about the appropriate use of fire hydrants and other ways

In adaptation literature, relatively little attention is paid to the role of basic environmental law instruments such as environmental quality standards, environmental permits and environmental impact assessments in adaptation law. In this chapter, I have reviewed the three roles these basic instruments can play in adaptation law: 1) create an overall environmental quality that makes the environment more resilient to climate change; 2) reduce the risk of (increased) pollution as a consequence of extreme weather events or of climate change more generally; 3) reduce the negative side-effects of adaptation measures on the environment. In general it can be concluded that current environmental laws already possess features that are relevant to adaptation, such as the requirement to regularly assess the permit conditions under pollution control law and the requirement to look at the long-term impacts of a project on the environment under environmental impact assessment law. However, it seems that the legislature should explicitly force regulators to take into account changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events when setting environmental quality standards or when requiring certain conditions to be met in environmental permits. Impact assessment schemes aimed at both specific projects and strategic plans should explicitly require the assessors to take long-term climate change adaptation requirements into account. The potential contribution of these environmental law instruments to climate change adaptation is simply too large not to embrace the opportunities they encompass.

The seasonal and annual nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and carbon (C) budgets of the mesotidal Ria Formosa lagoon, southern Portugal, were estimated to reveal the main inputs and outputs, the seasonal patterns, and how they may influence the ecological functioning of the system. The effects of extreme weather events such as long-lasting strong winds causing upwelling and strong rainfall were assessed. External nutrient inputs were quantified; ocean exchange was assessed in 24-h sampling campaigns, and final calculations were made using a hydrodynamic model of the lagoon. Rain and stream inputs were the main freshwater sources to the lagoon. However, wastewater treatment plant and groundwater discharges dominated nutrient input, together accounting for 98, 96, and 88 % of total C, N, and P input, respectively. Organic matter and nutrients were continuously exported to the ocean. This pattern was reversed following extreme events, such as strong winds in early summer that caused upwelling and after a period of heavy rainfall in late autumn. A principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that ammonium and organic N and C exchange were positively associated with temperature as opposed to pH and nitrate. These variables reflected mostly the benthic lagoon metabolism, whereas particulate P exchange was correlated to Chl a, indicating that this was more related to phytoplankton dynamics. The increase of stochastic events, as expected in climate change scenarios, may have strong effects on the ecological functioning of coastal lagoons, altering the C and nutrient budgets.

Introduction to <i>Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response</i>

Little is known about direct and indirect effects of extreme weather events on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) under field conditions. In a field experiment, we investigated the response of mycorrhization to drought and heavy rain in grassland communities. We quantified AMF biomass in soil, mycorrhization of roots of the grass Holcus lanatus and the forb Plantago lanceolata, as well as plant performance. Plants were grown in four-species communities with or without a legume. We hypothesised that drought increases and heavy rain decreases mycorrhization, and that higher mycorrhization will be linked to improved stress resistance and higher biomass production. Soil AMF biomass increased under both weather extremes. Heavy rain generally benefitted plants and increased arbuscules in P.lanceolata. Drought neither reduced plant performance nor root mycorrhization. Arbuscules increased in H.lanatus several weeks after drought, and in P.lanceolata several weeks after heavy rain spells. These long-lasting effects of weather events on mycorrhization highlight the indirect influence of climate on AMF via their host plant. Legume presence increased plant community biomass, but had only minor effects on mycorrhization. Arbuscule colonisation was negatively correlated with senescence during the dry summer. Mycorrhization and biomass production in P.lanceolata were positively related. However, increased mycorrhization was related to less biomass in the grass. AMF mycelium in soil might generally increase under extreme events, root colonisation, however, is host species specific. This might amplify community shifts in grassland under climate change by further increasing stress resistance of species that already benefit from changed precipitation.

In Pakistan, a country acutely vulnerable to climate change, this study delved into the gendered dynamics of climate sensitivity. It analyzed the correlation between gender and climate vulnerability, with a particular focus on the disproportionate influences on women and the efficacy of adaptation policies. The results showed stark gender disparities in health outcomes, with women more susceptible to the harmful effects of extreme weather events. Women in rural areas struggle to maintain their livelihoods due to water and pasture scarcity, affecting the cattle industry. Additionally, women in agriculture face economic hardships, resource constraints, and societal barriers that compound the adverse effects of climate change on their livelihoods. The paucity of food and water presents significant concerns, resulting in malnutrition and health hazards for women. Women in rural locations are compelled to depend on detrimental fuel sources due to energy shortages, which adversely affect their respiratory health. Conversely, in metropolitan settings, women have limitations in accessing vital services. The study highlights the importance of implementing policies that are sensitive to gender issues and include women in the decision-making processes related to climate change in order to establish communities that are able to withstand and recover from adverse conditions. The policy implications encompass several measures such as adapting to climate change, ensuring women's participation, investing in assistance for rural livelihoods, managing disasters, and promoting gender equality in climate governance. It is crucial to raise awareness and educate people about the gender-specific impacts of climate change in order to strengthen resilience.

Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change for Birthing People and the Provider's Role.