Who is compressing the “dividends” of employees? Research on the impact of population aging on employee treatment

Increased life expectancy combined with declining birth rates and massive emigration flows have caused many to worry about the various impacts of an ageing population in Lithuania. This suggests a very big increase in the dependency ratio and is consequently a cause for concern about a future slowing of economic growth. However, there is little research carried out regarding economic or financial effects of this phenomenon in the country. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of Lithuanian ageing population on economic variables. A new research design is implemented by using VAR and ARMAX models to compare two different approaches, treating ageing as an endogenous and exogenous variable. The authors find that old age dependency ratio has no statistically significant impact on Lithuania’s GDP growth, employment rate, final household consumption and gross national savings in the short run. The results achieved can be explained by incomplete and only short run data available for Lithuania. Also, joining the EU and other favorable economic conditions might have boosted Lithuania’s economic performance over the whole research period and significantly reduced the negative effects of ageing population. However, the impact of shifts in the structure of population age might soon come into effect, as Lithuania‘s society is gathering the pace of ageing, which is also seen in other emerging markets that are progressing toward becoming advanced.

How does population aging affect household carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese urban and rural areas

International evidence of Japan and European countries indicates that government debt burden could be aggravated by population aging in the long run. During recent years, population aging in China has been accelerating, with the debt burden of local government increasing simultaneously. Therefore, it is high time that the impact of population aging on local government debt should be taken seriously. However, until now there is still rare research upon whether China’s local government debt burden has been intensified by population aging.In view of this, firstly, this paper estimates the debt burden of each province from the perspective of interest-bearing debt of local government financing platforms. It covers both the explicit debt and the implicit debt, so the results are more accurate. Secondly, this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on local government debt using panel data of 30 regions in China（excluding Tibet）from 2010 to 2017. The empirical results show that the population aging has already worsen the debt burden of local governments to a considerable extent. What’s more, the panel intermediary effect analysis reveals that population aging could exert pressure on local government debt mainly from two aspects. On the one hand, fiscal expenditure on pensions would be more and fiscal revenue would be less, which will expand the numerator of debt-to-GDP ratio and push up the local government debt burden. On the other hand, economic growth slows down as population aging goes severer, which will whittle down the denominator of debt-to-GDP ratio and push up the local government debt burden.According to the prediction of the World Population Prospects（2019 Version）, the population aging rate of China will reach 16.9% by 2030, and reach 26.1% by 2050. Given that the risk posed by population aging to local government debt has been too serious to be ignored, this paper puts forward the following policies based on the mechanism analysis. Firstly, improve the pension system and reduce the burden of fiscal pension expenditures by increasing the size of personal pensions and increasing the return on investment of pension funds. Secondly, as local governments’ fiscal revenue will decline during the population aging process, it is difficult for them to accomplish the affairs arranged by the central government. It is necessary to further strengthen the central government’s authority and expenditure responsibility, so as to reduce the fiscal pressure of local governments. Thirdly, it is necessary to accelerate the innovation progress taking high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence as a starting point, so as to build up GDP and to dilute the debt burden, which can also achieve the purpose of reducing the risk of local government debt.

Population ageing is a global phenomenon that is now affecting many countries. For China, the main cause of population ageing was the early baby boom, which, despite the Government's family planning policy, had had little effect. At the same time, advances in health care leading to longer life expectancy and declining birth rates have also exacerbated population ageing. Population aging also has economic implications, such as labor shortages, shifting consumption patterns, and increased government social welfare spending. This study examines the overall impact of population aging on economic growth with a focus on China. The introductory section explores the definition, status and development trends of China population aging and the world. The study then focuses on population aging in China, including the proportion of the elderly population, the rapid growth of population aging in China, and particular aspects of China's population aging pattern. The study highlights the significant economic impacts of aging, such as a declining labor force, rising social security costs, and changes in consumption behavior. By assessing these issues, the study attempts to make recommendations that are consistent with the current aging situation in China.

With ongoing economic and social development, the level of aging is deepening, making population aging a common challenge for many countries worldwide. Japan, in particular, has become the country with the most severe population aging issue. As the problem of population aging in Japan intensifies, this study analyzes the various factors contributing to this phenomenon. On this basis, the study examines the core economic impacts of population aging on Japan, focusing on three main areas: the labor market, consumption patterns, and fiscal expenditure. Specifically, it discusses the constraints on economic growth due to reduced labor supply and skill loss, the effects of changes in elderly consumption patterns on market demand, and the challenges posed by increased pension and healthcare expenditures to public finances. Subsequently, this paper summarizes the key strategies adopted by the Japanese government to address population aging, including pension system reforms, promotion of elderly employment, comprehensive social security coverage, and improvements in community-based long-term care services. The research on the impact of population aging on Japan's economy and the analysis of Japan's response strategies provide valuable insights for other countries, including China, in addressing the challenges of population aging and improving social security systems.

<abstract> <p>The impact of population aging on economic growth is a very important issue in the process of population structure change. This paper first proposes research hypotheses based on a systematic literature review and theoretical analysis of the negative and positive effects of population aging on economic growth. Then, based on the data of 30 provinces in the Chinese Mainland from 2000 to 2019, this paper empirically tests the impact of population aging on economic growth and its impact mechanism using a static panel data model, a dynamic panel data model and a mediating effect model. Our empirical analysis leads to the following conclusions. First, population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. Second, the industrial structure upgrading plays a mediating role in the process of population aging affecting economic growth; that is, population aging inhibits economic growth by affecting the overall upgrading of the industrial structure as well as the industrial rationalization and optimization. Last, some policy implications are proposed based on the research conclusions.</p> </abstract>

Impact of population ageing on the application of industrial robots: Evidence from China

Population ageing and social stratification is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on the economy yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects. The aim of this article is to investigate the relationships between population ageing and social stratification and the state of economy of a small and post-transition economy. We are looking for these relationships and their strength of influence; at what time after shocking these variables reach their original levels. We apply standard Granger (non-) causality tests, VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive), IRF (Impulse Response Function) and the prediction error variance analysis by using quarterly data from 2000 to 2018. Research results show that the changes in the level of GDP per capita and the number of pensions paid imply changes in the number of retired persons. The research results have important contribute to policy debates about the impact of population ageing and social stratification on the state of economy in small and post-transition economy.

The impact of population structure on carbon emission has always been a key area of research in modern society. In this paper, we propose a new expanded STIRPAT model and panel co-integration method to analyze the relationship between population aging and carbon emission, based on the provincial panel data in China from 1999 to 2014. Empirical results show that there exists a significant inverted U-shaped curve between the population aging and carbon emission. There also exist regional discrepancies, where the impact of the population aging on carbon emission in the eastern region is significantly positive. By contrast, a negative relationship arises in the central and western regions. Finally, several suggestions for low carbon development are provided.

In recent years, the proportion of China’s elderly population is gradually increasing, and the real estate market is changing dramatically. Consequently the impact of population aging on housing demand has become increasingly prominent. On the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging, family structure and housing demand, this paper firstly constructs a system dynamics model of the impact of population aging and family structure on housing demand in China. Then, the model is simulated, and several scenarios of population, family structure, and real estate policies are set up. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: China’s population will rise at first and then decrease, reaching a peak of 1.401 billion by 2023. As the proportion of elderly population increases, the degree of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The size of the family will gradually shrink to 2.39 people per household in 2050. The housing demand will increase first and then decrease. Through the results of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the following suggestion to effectively balance the housing demand in China: Completely relaxing family planning policies, imposing a real estate tax, canceling the pre-sale policy, and raising the loan rate.

Researching the past empirical studies, we find that the empirical results of using data from the same or similar stages of economic development tend to be very close; however, there will be some discrepancies when comparing the empirical results of data samples at different stages of development. In order to explain this phenomenon, a theoretical analysis is made on the regional differences in the impact of population ageing on national saving. By analysing the areas considered in this paper as being in different stages of economic development, the combined effects of population ageing on the national saving rate are different. In order to verify the above conclusions, the thresholds and threshold effects are estimated and tested through the threshold model. The results show that the impact of population ageing on the savings rate will be different due to different levels of economic development. When per capita income is below the threshold of 9001.69, population ageing has a greater negative impact on the national savings rate. When per capita income is above the threshold of 9001.69, the negative impact of population ageing on the national saving rate is smaller.

With the increasingly serious situation of population aging in China, the impact of population aging cannot be ignored. This study analyzes the effect of population aging on the attraction of FDI inflows in China through the construction of an empirical model. The results show that there is a significant “inverted-U” relationship between population aging and FDI inflows, and aging negatively affects foreign investment inflows after crossing the aging inflection point. Based on the findings, this study proposes policy recommendations based on the quantity and quality of the labor force, such as improving the policy of gradual delayed retirement, improving the level of human capital, and promoting the regional mobility of the labor force, to provide feasible research ideas to enhance the attractiveness of FDI in regions with different levels of aging.

In this paper I discuss measurement issues of human capital from a national accounting perspective and present experimental estimates of human capital stocks and flows in Australia. The measurement framework draws on the Jorgenson and Fraumeni approach (1989, 1992) with a few modifications. Based on the concept of human capital measured as lifetime labour incomes, investment in post-school education and working experience are measured by the additions to lifetime labour incomes accrued to those who have obtained additional post-school qualifications and those with additional years in the labour market. This measurement framework is used to quantify the contribution of post-school education to human capital growth and the impact of population ageing on human capital development in Australia. The experimental estimates for this study show that: (1) There has been a significant increase in the stock of human capital in Australia during the period 1981–2001 and this increase is largely due to increased proportions of more educated workers; (2) Due to the population ageing, the existing human capital stock has also depreciated at a faster rate and hence the growth of net human capital formation has slowed down significantly.

This observational study examines and estimates the trends and impact of population ageing on rural aged care needs in Australia. With its universal health system and subsidised aged care system, Australia is among those countries with a long life expectancy. Being a geographically large country with a relatively small and dispersed population presents challenges for equitable access to aged care service provision. While this is widely acknowledged, there is little empirical evidence to demonstrate the magnitude and location of the aged care service provision gaps in the next decade. We performed time series analyses on administrative data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare GEN databases. The Aged Care Planning Regions (ACPR) were classified according to geographical remoteness using the Modified Monash Model scale. There is currently a shortfall of 2000+ places in residential aged care in rural and remote areas of Australia based on 2021 data. By 2032, population ageing will mean that an additional 3390 residential care places and around 3000 home care packages will be required in rural and remote communities alone. Geographical disparities in aged care exist in Australia and continue to worsen, requiring immediate action.

Using China's inter-provincial panel data from 2012 to 2017, empirically analyze the impact of population aging and basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents on the consumption rate of residents. The study found that in terms of population aging, there is a significant positive relationship between the old-age dependency ratio and the household consumption rate, and the child dependency ratio and life expectancy have a significant negative relationship with the household consumption rate; in terms of the basic pension insurance system for urban and rural residents, The basic pension insurance contribution rate and coverage rate of urban and rural residents have a significant positive relationship with the consumption rate of urban and rural residents, but the interaction item between the basic pension insurance payment rate and coverage rate of urban and rural residents harms the consumption rate of urban and rural residents; residents' income growth will curb consumption expenditure, but the interaction terms of income growth rate, old-age dependency ratio and child dependency ratio will stimulate household consumption. It is recommended to implement a flexible retirement system, promote consumption upgrading, further increase the insurance coverage rate, and improve the insurance policy for urban and rural residents.