Which indicators matter? Using performance indicators to predict in-game success-related events in association football

The aim of this study was twofold: to provide a quantitative analysis of corner kicks during the 2006 World Cup and to examine the effect of match status on corner kicks. Through the elaboration of a category system and following an observational methodology, we performed an analysis of all corner kicks (n = 653) in the 64 matches in the 2006 World Cup held in Germany. Matches were divided into sections according to evolving match status (whether the team was winning, n = 144; losing, n = 171; or drawing, n = 338). Using an observational methodology the following performance indicators were analysed: type of corner kick, scoring area, effectiveness, subsequent play, part of the body used to shoot, goal zone, number of players defending the goalposts, and defence tactics. The results obtained showed that: a) in relation to kick modality, teams perform more short corners and take more short kicks and outswing corner kicks when winning. On the other hand, teams perform more outstep and inswing corner kicks when drawing and losing; b) In relation to the scoring area, teams perform more shots that head toward the semicircle placed by the penalty area or do not use the centre when winning. However, teams head their s'hots toward the first and the second goalpost when drawing and losing; c) In relation to defence, when teams that are winning perform the corner kick, the defending teams tend to have fewer players defending the goal line; d) No significant statistical association was observed for the following performance indicators: effectiveness, subsequent play, part of the body used to shoot, goal zone, and defensive system.

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to analyse corner kick defensive strategies during the 2018 FIFA World Cup. A total of 600 corner kicks from all 64 matches in the tournament were obtained from the InStat database and analysed. Data were analysed and reported as frequency counts and percentages. Chi-square test for independence (χ2) used to test associations between key performance indicators. Results showed that 22 goals (3.7% of all corners kicks) were conceded from corner kicks. Teams conceded more goals using a zonal marking strategy (6.0%) compared to a mixed marking strategy (3.7%). There was a significant association between types of corner kicks and defensive outcomes (χ2 = 111.30,V = 0.57). Most goals were conceded from inswing corner kicks (4.6%) compared to short (3.3%) and outswing (3.1%) corner kicks. Seventeen (3.9%) goals were conceded from corners when there were no players on the goal line. Most goals came from the centre (7.0%) and the first goalpost (3.5%). These findings highlight potential strategies soccer coaches may employ for an effective defensive set-up against corners, such as employing a mixed marking method, having players positioned on the goalposts and being aware of the attacking threat posed by short corner kicks.

Soccer is the most popular sport in the world. Despite this global popularity, European teams in contrast to African ones, have dominated the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup tournaments for many decades. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the performance indicators that differentiated between African and European teams in the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Thirty matches played by five European (n = 15) and five African teams (n = 15) from the group stages of the World Cup were analysed using the InStat video system. The results showed that European teams had higher averages than African teams on the following performance variables: total shots, shots on target, goals scored from open play and set pieces, ball possession, short passes, medium passes, total passes, accurate passes and corner kicks. Therefore, soccer coaches should take note of these findings as they could serve as a benchmark for African teams to set trends and improve their performance at FIFA World Cup tournaments.

This investigation aimed to compare the attacking styles of play (ASPs) between participants in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) and Copa Libertadores de América (CLA). 224 matches from the round of 16 to the semi-finals were analysed, including UEFA Champions League (n = 112, seasons 2017–2019 and 2020–2022) and Copa Libertadores (n = 112, seasons 2019–2022), comprising 31 teams from UCL and 37 teams from CLA. Nine key attacking performance indicators related to ball possession, corner kicks, shots on goal, and goals scored were collected. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to distinguish different ASPs, and an association measure was used to identify the key performance indicators that differentiate these styles. UCL teams exhibited a broader range of ASPs compared to CLA teams, demonstrating greater variability. Ball possession indicators were found to be significant in differentiating the ASPs. UCL teams showed a preferred ASP while also employing other styles to diversify their attacking behaviour. In contrast, CLA teams favoured two preferred ASPs, a pattern that became more pronounced as the tournaments progressed. In conclusion, European and South American teams display differences in both the quantity and preference for attacking styles across different phases of their respective continental competitions.

BackgroundDue to the unfortunate pandemic situation, the phenomena of home advantage and referee bias in sports have recently received a particular research attention, especially in association football. In this regard, several studies were conducted on the last portion of the 2019–20 season: the majority of them suggests a reduction—but not the elimination—of the two phenomena, with some exceptions in which no reduction was found or, at the other extreme, the phenomena were not observed at all.MethodsThe continuation of the pandemic made it possible to replicate the previous studies considering the complete 2020–21 season, thus with the important added value of having a fully balanced home/away schedule—and a higher number of matches—in the various leagues. In particular, the sample of the present study consisted of 3,898 matches from the first and second divisions of the UEFA top five ranked countries, that is, England, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France. For the home advantage, the following variables were examined: distribution of matches outcomes and home advantage for points (also for previous seasons from the 2014–15 one); ball possession; total shots; shots on goal; and corner kicks. Instead, for he referee bias, the following variables were examined: fouls; yellow cards; red cards; penalty kicks; and extra time. Chi-square tests were used to compare the distribution of matches outcomes, and t-tests to compare home vs. away data for the other variables in the 2020–21 season; Bayesian and equivalence analyses were also conducted.ResultsThe main results are as follows: (a) the distribution of matches outcomes in the 2020–21 season was significantly different from that of the last five complete seasons with spectators (Chi-square = 37.42, df = 2, p < 0.001), with fewer home victories and more away victories; the resulting values of the home advantage for points were 54.95% for the 2020–21 season, and 59.36% for the previous seasons; (b) for the other home advantage variables, a statistically significant overall advantage for the home team emerged; nevertheless, the strength of the differences between home and away teams was generally small (0.09 < Cohen’s d < 0.17), and the corresponding means can be considered statistically equivalent for all variables but the total shots; (c) no statistically significant differences emerged between home and away teams for any of the referee bias variables.DiscussionThese findings demonstrate that the absence of spectators significantly reduced the home advantage compared to previous seasons with spectators. A slight home advantage persisted in the 2020–21 season, probably due to other factors, namely, learning and travel, according to the model by Courneya & Carron (1992). Conversely, the referee bias was not observed, suggesting that it mainly derives from the pressure normally exerted by spectators.

This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch with serial clustering pattern. Providing parameter estimates with intuitive interpretation, a class of compound Poisson regression including a Bayesian implementation of geometric-Poisson distribution are introduced. With a varying shape parameter, the corner counts serial correlation between matches is handled naturally within the Bayesian model. In this study, information elicited from cross-market betting odds was used to improve the model predictability. Margin application methods to adjust market inefficiency in raw odds are also discussed.

The home advantage and the subconscious referee bias regularly occur in professional sports, particularly in association football. The matches played behind closed doors in spring and summer 2020 highlighted that the crowd support is one of the main factors contributing to both phenomena in domestic leagues. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the same applies also to national teams matches, given the different impact of the other factors determining the home advantage in such matches. To this purpose, the 2018–19 and the 2020–21 editions of the UEFA Nations League – 133 matches each – were analysed, the former played in front of spectators while the latter with no or limited attendance. In particular, we examined a set of indicators of home advantage (match outcome, points, goals scored, ball possession, total shots, shots on goal, corner kicks) and of referee bias (fouls, yellow cards, red cards, penalty kicks, extra time), controlling for the FIFA World Ranking points and the number of time zones crossed. Comparing home and away teams on these parameters within each edition, we observed the occurrence of both phenomena in 2018-19, as well as their absence in 2020-21. Moreover, the comparison between the two editions revealed a significant reduction of both phenomena. The results indicate that spectators have a decisive role in contributing to both the home advantage and the referee bias in national teams matches.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 season Chinese Super League (CSL) was held in neutral venues, this study aims to analyse the impact of removing home advantage (HA) in CSL. 240 games of the CSL 2019 season (home and away double round-robin system) and 160 games of the 2020 season (in neutral venues) were analysed. 27 technical and tactical performance indicators were involved as dependent variables. A multiple linear regression model was established to analyse the influence of removing HA on the performance indicators. After moving from home stadium to neutral venue in 2020 season, goal, shot, shot on target, shot from outside box, shot from inside box, shot on target from inside box, corner kick, key pass, cross, breakthrough, tackle decreased significantly (p < 0.05), while yellow card and foul increased steeply (p < 0.05). Comparing with playing away match, in neutral venue, free kicks and pass accuracy enhanced radically (p < 0.05), while tackle, clearance and block shot dropped noticeably (p < 0.05). When removing HA and playing in the neutral venue, teams' performance dropped significantly. This study confirmed the positive impact of HA on the teams' performance and may help elite football teams make proper playing strategies regarding different match locations.

The technology growth allowing analysis acts to gain more efficiency in football has increased, with performance analysis researches being conducted, since the knowledge of performance indicators that can determine success in football and the need for more predictive analysis to better comprehend them are essential. So, in account of these aspects this research aimed to investigate the influence of crosses, shots, corner kicks and defensive movements in winning Premier League (PL) football matches. The methodology adopted consists of a quantitative, descriptive and documentary research, which the sample is represented by all PL 2015/2016 matches. The analysis acts were made by the utilization of the association technique, present at data mining process, with the support of the software Weka. Results demonstrated the influence of variables in PL victories, suggesting that making a higher number of crosses than opponents was not effective to win PL matches, but that making more shots on goal than opponents was a positive indicative to predict victories, as having more defensive movements and less crosses than opponents as well. About corner kicks, results demonstrated that there is no influence of this component at match results.

In this paper, we identify appropriate statistical methods for analysing categorical differences in discrete variables or 'performance indicators' resulting from performance analysis. The random mechanisms associated with discrete events do not follow a normal distribution; that is, the normal distribution is a continuous not a discrete probability distribution. We propose appropriate statistical methods based on two key discrete probability distributions, the Poisson and binomial distributions. Two approaches are proposed and compared using examples from notational analysis. The first approach is based on the classic chi-square test of significance (both the goodness-of-fit test and the test of independence). The second approach adopts a more contemporary method based on log-linear and logit models fitted using the statistical software GLIM. Provided relatively simple one-way and two-way comparisons in categorical data are required, both of these approaches result in very similar conclusions. However, as soon as more complex models or higher-order comparisons are required, the approach based on log-linear and logit models is shown to be more effective. Indeed, when investigating those factors and categorical differences associated with binomial or binary response variables, such as the proportion of winners when attempting decisive shots in squash or the proportion of goals scored from all shots in association football, logit models become the only realistic method available. By applying log-linear and logit models to discrete events resulting from notational analysis, greater insight into the underlying mechanisms associated with sport performance can be achieved.

Editor—McColl et al provide a welcome alternative1 to performance indicators proposed by the NHS Executive and the Department of Health.2 They have suggested a range of evidence based interventions which...

Using automated data analysis to understand what makes a play successful in football can enable teams to make data-driven decisions that may enhance their performance throughout the season. Analyzing different types of plays (e.g., corner, penalty, free kicks) requires different considerations. This work focuses on the analysis of corner kick plays. However, the central ideas apply to analyzing all types of plays. While prior analyses (univariate, bivariate, multivariate) have explored the link between contextual factors (e.g., match period, type of defensive marking) and the level of success of a corner kick (e.g., shot, shot on goal, goal), there has been no attempt to combine spatiotemporal event data (sequences of ball movements through the field) and contextual information to determine when and how (strategy) a particular type of corner kick play (tactic) is more likely to succeed or not. To address this gap, we propose an approach that (1) transforms spatiotemporal data into an alternative representation suitable for mining sequential patterns, (2) identifies and characterizes the sequential patterns used by offensive teams to move the ball toward the scoring zone (tactics), and (3) extracts contrast patterns to identify under what conditions different tactics result in increased chances of success or failure; we call these conditions strategies. Our results suggest that favorable and unfavorable conditions for tactic application are not the same across different tactics, supporting the argument that there is a benefit in performing an analysis that treats different tactics separately, where spatiotemporal information plays a crucial role. Unlike prior works on the corner kick, our approach can capture how the interaction between multiple contextual factors impacts the outcome of a corner kick. At the same time, the results can be explained to others in natural languages.

This paper compares indoor and outdoor LTE network performance at 700 MHz. We collect data using commercial test equipment on a commercially deployed 2×2 MIMO LTE network in a campus environment. The purpose of the study is to determine performance of LTE MIMO for indoor users from transmit antennas that are outdoors as compared to performance from transmit antennas that are indoors. To characterize performance, the typical method is to compare throughput and common LTE key performance indicators. In this study, we also study the relationship of these performance indicators to throughput performance. In this way, the value of performance indicators can be estimated. The conclusion of this study is that most of the key performance indicators show a positive correlation to throughput.

Prediction of students' performances on licensing examinations using age, race, sex, undergraduate GPAs, and MCAT scores.

The performance indicator system based on balanced scorecard (BSC) is the vertical breakdown proceeding from the strategy, it neglects considering the collaborative relationship between the upstream and downstream departments. This paper proposes a design method of company integrated strategic performance indicator system based on BSC and the ‘suppliers-input-process-output-customers’ model (SIPOC). First, the strategy map and BSC are adopted to develop the company-level key performance indicators (KPIs), which are gradually broken down to different departments and forming department KPIs. Then, the common performance indicators (CPIs) are determined based on the SIPOC process analysis; thus, achieving the synergy between different departments. Finally, the departmental performance indicators system can be constructed by composing KPIs and CPIs together. While achieving the strategic vertical breakdown, this method can bring about the synergy between departments in horizontal operation. Also, a case study from a manufacturing company is performed to verify the feasibility of the method.