Where and when does the danger lie? Assessing how location, season and time of day affect the sequential stages of predation by lions in western Serengeti National Park

Abstract

AbstractPredation is a fundamental ecological process influencing the distribution and abundance of animal populations and underlying how prey species perceive risk. The predation process is composed of four sequential stages – search, encounter, attack and kill – each of which has been used to describe risk across the landscape. Here, we used direct observational data of free‐ranging, radio‐collared African lions in Serengeti National Park's western corridor to (1) investigate daily and seasonal predation stage probabilities and (2) using two analytical approaches, compare four mechanisms – prey distribution, intra‐specific competition, spatially anchored landscape features and predator hunting method – that potentially drive spatial predation stage patterns. Results showed that lions encountered potential prey at night significantly less than during diurnal or crepuscular periods. Nocturnal observations were predominantly during full‐moon phases, so if this lower nocturnal encounter rate was due to moon phase it may contribute to lions' typically poor full‐moon hunting success. Predation stage probabilities did not differ between seasons despite high variability in seasonal prey abundance. Spatially, lions encountered potential prey in prey‐rich, open areas near water and spatial range centres. Compared with available areas within seasonal ranges, lion attacks were more likely where prey abundance was high, and kill locations were associated with prey‐rich areas near water and range centres, collectively suggesting opportunistic hunting. However, compared with preceding predation stage locations, attacks occurred near range peripheries and kills where hunting cover was greater, suggesting ambush predation. Our results indicate substantial temporal and spatial variation across the different stages of the predation process. They also highlight first, that results can vary in important ways depending on how analyses are approached, and second, that understanding predator‐prey dynamics depends on analyses of the different stages of predation.