What Role Has Structural Change Played in Growth Accelerations for the Indian States? An Analysis for Pre- and Post-liberalization Periods

Abstract

This article analyses the role of structural change in explaining growth accelerations and decelerations in Indian states over the 30 years from 1980–1981 to 2010–2011. We employ conventional shift-share analysis to measure the sectoral contribution to productivity growth. We apply this methodology to an eight-sector data set for 15 major states. Our results show that productivity changes ‘within’ sectors explain the considerable improvement in productivity in Indian states rather than the reallocation of labour to more productive sectors. At the aggregate level and for several states, significant contribution to productivity improvements has emanated from agriculture, trade and manufacturing sectors. In all these sectors, the main contribution emerged from within sector productivity improvements, not from structural changes. However, the reallocation effect has appeared to deliver marginal gains to overall productivity in recent periods, which is evident for construction, manufacturing, trade and services sectors. JEL Classification: O10, O40, O47, R11