What motivates the ‘green’ transition: Russian and European perspectives

Abstract

This paper considers the challenges of the ‘green’ transition and analyses to what extent political motivations weigh in the decision to replace fossil fuels by renewables in the energy mix. While the environmental reasons for the transition have been thoroughly explored in the literature, the influence of political factors on the decision to promote renewables remains underexplored. The EU’s active mobilisation against Russian oil and gas imports after the 2022 hostilities in Ukraine is but the latest indication of the growing impact of political considerations on energy decision-making. We use qualitative methods based on expert interviews triangulated with an analysis of energy mixes to determine the main factors behind the choice to develop and actively promote renewables. A comparative analysis of the European Union and Russia reveals that the motivation to reach or preserve energy independence guides both countries dependent on energy imports and fossil fuel exporters in their agenda regarding renewables, but results in different policy choices. The paper also provides an analytical framework to assess energy independence, highlights some of the social and economic risks related to the green transition, and offers recommendations on robust policy-making on energy mixes under conditions of uncertainty.