What is the Value of CCS in the Future Energy System?

Abstract

Ambitions to produce electricity at low, zero, or negative carbon emissions are shifting the priorities and appreciation for new types of power generating technologies. Maintaining the balance between security of energy supply, carbon reduction, and electricity system cost during the transition of the electricity system is challenging. Few technology valuation tools consider the presence and interdependency of these three aspects, and nor do they appreciate the difference between firm and intermittent power generation. In this contribution, we present the results of a thought experiment and mathematical model wherein we conduct a systems analyses on the effects of gas-fired power plants equipped with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology in comparison with onshore wind power plants as main decarbonisation technologies. We find that while wind capacity integration is in its early stages of deployment an economic decarbonisation strategy, it ultimately results in an infrastructurally inefficient system with a required ratio of installed capacity to peak demand of nearly 2.. Due to the intermittent nature of wind power generation, its deployment requires a significant amount of reserve capacity in the form of firm capacity. While the integration of CCS-equipped capacity increases total system cost significantly, this strategy is able to achieve truly low-carbon power generation at 0.04 tCO2/MWh. Via a simple example, this work elucidates how the changing system requirements necessitate a paradigm shift in the value perception of power generation technologies.