What I Think you Think I am Going to do Next: Perspective-Taking and Recursive Modeling in Computer Mediated Conflict

Abstract

Separate but complementary literatures exist for perspective taking (psychology) and recursive modelling (computer/cognitive science) and their efficacy in conflict situations. Both constructs involve creating a mental model of one's partner, adversary, or opponent. Further, each assumes that a more accurate and complex model of other people will increase interpersonal efficacy and the attainment of one's social goals. This collaborative interdisciplinary research assumes that the more refined theory of recursive modelling, which specifies several ordered levels of perspective-taking activity, can be enhance prediction of judgment accuracy, outcome success, and the development of retaliatory versus trusting behavior in conflict. A computer-aided Disarmament Game was created which mimics the contingencies of the Prisoner's Dilemma (rewards for cooperation versus defection), with added complexity and live face-to-face negotiation opportunities. After measuring dispositional perspective taking ability (IRI, Davis, 1983), approximately 50 dyads (n=100) will play the game. Conflict cycles (escalation versus resolution) will be tracked over time, as well as perspective-taking accuracy at zero through three levels of recursion. This exploratory research asks (1) does perspective-taking ability predict how well one reads ones opponent at some recursive levels more than others? (2) does one's accuracy at different recursive levels key to a successful outcome? In addition, we will be able to predict what combinations of perspective-taking abilities of participants lead to the development of trust and cooperation over time. Preliminary results of pilot data are presented here, with full results expected by May 2005 (in advance of the conference).